Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLIII

[57special]

There is a thread on Strome on one of the other forums here. I'm wondering about someone like that for 3 years at reasonable cost (4.5 - 5M). Here's the idea.....You buyout Rask, and thus save 2.6M in the next 2 years.
Then, for centers, you have....Strome, EE, Hartman/Sturm, and Rossi.
This allows Rossi to move more slowly into the #1 role, if he is able for that, at low cost.

Assuming you protect 7-3-1, and Seattle chooses Dumba, then there is lots of cap room.

Defense: Resign Cole at about 2M. Addison, Menell at about 850K. Soucy at 2.75M, plus Suter, Spurgeon, Brodin, =27.6M for the Defense
Forwards: Kap at 8M, Strome at 5M, Zucc at 6M, EE at 4.5, Greenway at 2.1, Foligno at 3.1, Fiala at 6M, Boldy at 850K, Parise at 7.5M, Rossi at 900K, Hartman at 1.7M, Sturm at 750K = 46.5M

Goalies: 4.4M

This is about a 78M roster, with 12 F and 7D and 2G signed. Lots of room for an extra forward and goalie.

Yes, but unlike Danault, Strome is not a UFA, and would demand assets back in a trade. How much would you be prepared to pay for one year of Strome, who is having a career year, whose value will be as high as it ever has been? I'd far rather go after Monahan, myself, even if he costs more.

 

[57special]

Side deal with Seattle. Agree to leave Dumba unprotected, have them grab a center for us and trade them a prospect or picks for him.

No idea who or what centers will be available in the expansion draft and of course Seattle needs them as well.

That's what i was thinking. Let SEA know that we have a deal in place for Dumba with another team before the TDL, but would be open to leaving him exposed if they make it worth our while. Might only be something like a 2nd in 2022, or a 2nd and a 3rd. I can't see them trading away their 1st.

This way, we limit the damage on who we lose, gain a couple of picks, and some cap room.

 

[MNNumbers]

Yes, but unlike Danault, Strome is not a UFA, and would demand assets back in a trade. How much would you be prepared to pay for one year of Strome, who is having a career year, whose value will be as high as it ever has been? I'd far rather go after Monahan, myself, even if he costs more.

Well pointed out. What's Monahan's contract situation?

I think my real thought is that we need someone who is about a .5PPG guy with some skill. Doesn't have to be a star. Average to slightly plus skill level. And, the idea to me is that we want him for 2 years, because we don't know what's happening with Rossi. So, the centers for next year would be:
New guy/EE/Hartman or Sturm/Rossi in some order among the lines.

 

[57special]

Well pointed out. What's Monahan's contract situation?

Two more years at 6M or so. Long enough Rossi to develop, and for us to see if he is worth having around for longer. I think that they would be interested in Dumba, a Calgarian, given the age of KneeOrdano, and the general unhappiness with the Flames. The money works, but we might have to send someone like Khovanov or Giroux, along. I would really prefer to keep Dewar.

 

[MNNumbers]

Two more years at 6M or so. Long enough Rossi to develop, and for us to see if he is worth having around for longer. I think that they would be interested in Dumba, a Calgarian, given the age of KneeOrdano, and the general unhappiness with the Flames. The money works, but we might have to send someone like Khovanov or Giroux, along. I would really prefer to keep Dewar.

I'd be fine with that, except that it means that either Soucy or a goalie leaves in expansion. I don't like the idea of losing either KK or Soucy, and right now I feel there is no reason to expose Talbot. He's been great.

What's your thoughts about that?

Otherwise, I'd be fine with the time frame on Monahan. The problem is that the cap hit might make things a little tighter. Let me think....naw...that works...
Forward group: 48M....Defense: 25M because Soucy is gone.....Goalies: 4.5M = 77.5, and you can sign 1 forward, 1 D and a G for the remainder.

 

[HotDish]

Soucy is a 4-5 D. Losing him isn't the end of the world. I much rather him get picked than a lot of others.

 

[57special]

I'd be fine with that, except that it means that either Soucy or a goalie leaves in expansion. I don't like the idea of losing either KK or Soucy, and right now I feel there is no reason to expose Talbot. He's been great.

What's your thoughts about that?

Otherwise, I'd be fine with the time frame on Monahan. The problem is that the cap hit might make things a little tighter. Let me think....naw...that works...
Forward group: 48M....Defense: 25M because Soucy is gone.....Goalies: 4.5M = 77.5, and you can sign 1 forward, 1 D and a G for the remainder.

Losing Soucy, because there is no way you do anything but 7+3 if you trade for a C, would be one of the arguments for leavings things as they are and resigning yourself to losing Dumba or Soucy for nothing, as you would get to keep the other. I am slowly coming around to that being a viable option, and definitely a reason not to make a mediocre Dumba trade.

If we could somehow convince Suter to waive his NMC it would solve a lot of problems, but good luck with that. It would involve sending a pick/prospect to SEA for them NOT to pick Suter for him to possibly be ok with it.

 

[57special]

Soucy is a 4-5 D. Losing him isn't the end of the world. I much rather him get picked than a lot of others.

Soucy is tied with Brodin for ES points, in far less minutes, is decent defensively, and is the only one of the top 5 with some size and snarl now that Dumba is banned from fighting(or he better be). Soucy also makes half, or in some cases, a third of what the other Dmen do. Just because he is playing #5 here doesn't mean that's what his value is.

Soucy is like Scandella was when he was good, and putting up 20+ points.

I love Dumba's personality, and think he is a good player, but he was paid in the expectation that he would continue his 50 pt/yr scoring pace. You can't look at what he has done since then and say that he has come close to doing that. If Cap wasn't a thing then you keep him, but it is, so you have to consider where your money is going.

 

[2Pair]

Doesn't make any sense considering he was signed under completely different circumstances and time frame. IE before Corona virus outbreak and can be argued underpaid up until that deal.

Mr. Leadership is severely overpaid.

 

[KaprizovEntitlelist]

Two more years at 6M or so. Long enough Rossi to develop, and for us to see if he is worth having around for longer. I think that they would be interested in Dumba, a Calgarian, given the age of KneeOrdano, and the general unhappiness with the Flames. The money works, but we might have to send someone like Khovanov or Giroux, along. I would really prefer to keep Dewar.

Guerin didn't do dumba for Sean Monahan, & you actually believe he's going to be willing to add to dumba

We need to let the Sean Monahan thing go. Guerin isn't trading for him right, or wrong

 

[Spurgeon]

Soucy is tied with Brodin for ES points, in far less minutes, is decent defensively, and is the only one of the top 5 with some size and snarl now that Dumba is banned from fighting(or he better be). Soucy also makes half, or in some cases, a third of what the other Dmen do. Just because he is playing #5 here doesn't mean that's what is value is.

Soucy is like Scandella was when he was good, and putting up 20+ points.

I love Dumba's personality, and think he is a good player, but he was paid in the expectation that he would continue his 50 pt/yr scoring pace. You can't look at what he has done since then and say that he hasn't come close to doing that. If Cap wasn't a thing then you keep him, but it is, so you have to consider where your money is going.

I'm starting to get behind this line of thinking as well. In a vacuum, losing Dumba seems like terrible asset management. However, when you look at all the external factors in play, it might be the best case scenario:

1. $6M in cap relief
2. Limit loss of defensemen to just 1
3. Retain all forwards (specifically the GEEF line)
4. RHD is our most replaceable position w/ our prospect pool

I also think that you could convince Seattle that in order for us to leave Dumba exposed, they'll have to take Rask as well. It gives them a fresh body at center and he's only got 1 year on his contract, so it shouldn't have an impact on their long term plans (unless they're planning on spending to the cap).

-----------------------------------------------

If the above scenario worked out that way, the Wild would have an extra $10M in cap space. With that space, they should have more than enough to re-sign Kap, Fiala, and Ek to long-term extensions, as well as a UFA center.

My preferred UFA target would be Krejci (if he leaves Boston). It's hard to tell with the ED draft if he'll actually be available, but he makes the most sense for team need. He's a #1C, right-handed, strong on FOs, good on the PP, and he's probably only looking at a 2-3 year contract. This gives the Wild more time to see what we have at center (Rossi, Sturm, Khovanov, Khusnutdinov) without committing to someone on a long-term deal that could restrict the future plans if they're really not a Top 6 center (Danault).

 

[MuckOG]

Guerin didn't do dumba for Sean Monahan, & you actually believe he's going to be willing to add to dumba

We need to let the Sean Monahan thing go. Guerin isn't trading for him right, or wrong

You have some inside knowledge that no one else has?

 

[MuckOG]

I also think that you could convince Seattle that in order for us to leave Dumba exposed, they'll have to take Rask as well. It gives them a fresh body at center and he's only got 1 year on his contract, so it shouldn't have an impact on their long term plans (unless they're planning on spending to the cap).

This would be like Christmas in July.

 

[Spurgeon]

Dumba + Rask in ED

RFAs:
Kap - 8 years @ $8.5M AAV
Fiala - 5 years @ $6M AAV
Ek - 6 years @ $4.5M AAV
Menell - 2 years @ $1.5M AAV

UFAs:
Krejci - 2 years @ $6M AAV

Team:

 

[KaprizovEntitlelist]

You have some inside knowledge that no one else has?

This has been talked about a million times here including @ deadline when someone here asked Russo, & posted Russo's response to it

Right or wrong Monahan trade isn't happening

 

[MNNumbers]

Dumba + Rask in ED

RFAs:
Kap - 8 years @ $8.5M AAV
Fiala - 5 years @ $6M AAV
Ek - 6 years @ $4.5M AAV
Menell - 2 years @ $1.5M AAV

UFAs:
Krejci - 2 years @ $6M AAV

Team:
View attachment 425920

You can do exactly that, and only commit 1.33M more by simply buying out Rask. The other piece of the puzzle, though, is that you want Seattle to TAKE Dumba, and not Kaakonen. Right?

Plus, Krejci is still projecting as a 55pt C. I'm not sure you can get him for 6M. But if you can...this is a very good approach. It's also possible that you sign Kap for [email protected], which defers his big payday, but not by much....yet it defers it until Zucc is off the books. And, that gains you another million.

 

[MuckOG]

This has been talked about a million times here including @ deadline when someone here asked Russo, & posted Russo's response to it

Right or wrong Monahan trade isn't happening

Russo's been wrong before. When he was asked if Hartman was going to be re-signed, his opinion was that Hartman would get more money on the open market than the Wild could afford to pay him. Even he admits that he's not as plugged-in to what's going on behind the scenes this year compared to typical years due to the pandemic restrictions.

I'm not predicting that a deal for Monahan will be had, but the chances of it happening are certainly greater than 0%.

 

[Spurgeon]

You can do exactly that, and only commit 1.33M more by simply buying out Rask. The other piece of the puzzle, though, is that you want Seattle to TAKE Dumba, and not Kaakonen. Right?

Plus, Krejci is still projecting as a 55pt C. I'm not sure you can get him for 6M. But if you can...this is a very good approach. It's also possible that you sign Kap for [email protected], which defers his big payday, but not by much....yet it defers it until Zucc is off the books. And, that gains you another million.

Pushing dead cap from a Rask buyout to the following season could be problematic with Greenway and Kahkonen extensions. Even in this scenario, they'd pretty much need the salary cap to increase to not run into any cap problems, but I'd think it will be increasing by the 22-23 season. If anything, I'd just try to retain $1.33MM on the deal with Seattle so the cap is restricted only to next season.

Krejci's contract is going to be interesting. With the flat cap and his age, I'm thinking $6-7M is going to be roughly the range that he falls in. I think we could afford to give him $7M if we had to (Pavelski's 3 year, $21M deal is probably the comparable).

Kap is a player that I think we absolutely have to give a 7-8 year contract at whatever dollar amount he wants. Signing him to a 2-3 year deal and losing him in UFA would suck.

 

[MuckOG]

Pushing dead cap from a Rask buyout to the following season could be problematic with Greenway and Kahkonen extensions. Even in this scenario, they'd pretty much need the salary cap to increase to not run into any cap problems, but I'd think it will be increasing by the 22-23 season. If anything, I'd just try to retain $1.33MM on the deal with Seattle so the cap is restricted only to next season.

Krejci's contract is going to be interesting. With the flat cap and his age, I'm thinking $6-7M is going to be roughly the range that he falls in. I think we could afford to give him $7M if we had to (Pavelski's 3 year, $21M deal is probably the comparable).

Kap is a player that I think we absolutely have to give a 7-8 year contract at whatever dollar amount he wants. Signing him to a 2-3 year deal and losing him in UFA would suck.

Can't imagine the Wild would be that stupid.

 

[57special]

I'm starting to get behind this line of thinking as well. In a vacuum, losing Dumba seems like terrible asset management. However, when you look at all the external factors in play, it might be the best case scenario:

1. $6M in cap relief
2. Limit loss of defensemen to just 1
3. Retain all forwards (specifically the GEEF line)
4. RHD is our most replaceable position w/ our prospect pool

I also think that you could convince Seattle that in order for us to leave Dumba exposed, they'll have to take Rask as well. It gives them a fresh body at center and he's only got 1 year on his contract, so it shouldn't have an impact on their long term plans (unless they're planning on spending to the cap).

-----------------------------------------------

If the above scenario worked out that way, the Wild would have an extra $10M in cap space. With that space, they should have more than enough to re-sign Kap, Fiala, and Ek to long-term extensions, as well as a UFA center.

My preferred UFA target would be Krejci (if he leaves Boston). It's hard to tell with the ED draft if he'll actually be available, but he makes the most sense for team need. He's a #1C, right-handed, strong on FOs, good on the PP, and he's probably only looking at a 2-3 year contract. This gives the Wild more time to see what we have at center (Rossi, Sturm, Khovanov, Khusnutdinov) without committing to someone on a long-term deal that could restrict the future plans if they're really not a Top 6 center (Danault).

Don't forget that we would keep our goalies, also.

Given that Francis has more than a passing acquaintance with Rask I think that part of the deal will have to remain nothing more than a dream.

 

[MNNumbers]

Regardless of how it works, Dumba's cap hit is too great for him to remain on the team. As you all mentioned, Greenway and Kaaponen need raises before his contract expires. So does Sturm if we like him again next year. There is simply not enough cap space for all of that to happen effectively with Dumba still here. So, when you look at all of that, 7-3-1 and expose Dumba is definitely the choice.

Now, a side deal with Seattle about that? Hmmm....

 

[grN1g]

Mr. Leadership is severely overpaid.

I'd agree he's perhaps overpaid a tad bit

 

[2Pair]

I'd agree he's perhaps overpaid a tad bit

A tad? He's the 6th highest paid defenseman in the NHL this year

 

[grN1g]

A tad? He's the 6th highest paid defenseman in the NHL this year

But your delivery is that he's a negative asset which is far from the truth and you know it.

 

[Minnewildsota]

But your delivery is that he's a negative asset which is far from the truth and you know it.

How dare you question him!

I would be interested to see where Spurgeon ranks if you knocked his salary down .5 mill.