Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLIII

[Dr Jan Itor]

I would love for him to find a good center that fits here long term this summer. That would be great.

Agreed!

We’ll call that Plan A.

 

[AKL]

Agreed!

We’ll call that Plan A.

I'll allow it

 

[AKL]

Not to mention that season that was abnormal will not impact the timeline on when a player could contribute to an NHL team. So yes, if the plan is to draft and develop and that is where the center will come from, I feel 2024-25 is a reasonable timeline.

Okay, I don't feel like I ever said the draft is the only way we're going to get one, so, I don't know where you want me to go from here. You're kind of shouting into the wind here.

 

[Bazeek]

Christ.

I'm not sure why you're asserting that he won't try to find, or be able to find a center until 2024. From what I can gather, you think that because 2017 draft was the last center heavy draft, you think there won't be more centers to draft until 2024? Not sure what the logic connection used there is. Probably just going to try to forget you even brought that part up.

Having a long term approach to building a Cup winning team is not the same as waiting until 2024 to find a center because ???
If he finds a center this summer that fits into his long term plans (again, Dubois was an example of such a guy, that he unfortunately missed out on), he's going to try to acquire him.
Having a long term approach means he's not going to rush out and sign a center that doesn't fit into his long term plans just because a bunch of fans think we need to.

So if he doesn't find a top 6 center this summer, yes, that IS acceptable to me (though he's already got a good start with Rossi). The part that wasn't acceptable to me was signing Spurgeon and Foligno. But as I tried to explain to Bazeek earlier (and he insisted no one felt this way, yet he's still making and liking posts that would seem to indicate otherwise), just because he did sign Spurgeon and Foligno (and Brodin), doesn't mean we're suddenly not still in a rebuild.

To a large degree this is semantics, but I find it really hard to call what he's been doing a rebuild. The only proactive move he's made in that direction was trading Zucker, and that was a case where the player was almost getting pushed off the roster by Kaprizov and he had his old boss busting down his door to acquire him. Beyond that the most rebuild-y thing he's done is not trade futures. Which is... fine, but I don't know that I'd call that a rebuild. Especially when what he has been proactive about is extending UFAs that, in most rebuilds, would be traded for futures.

Like I don't know what label to slap on this, but I think "rebuild" requires a lot of squinting.

 

[Prior]

Okay, I don't feel like I ever said the draft is the only way we're going to get one, so, I don't know where you want me to go from here. You're kind of shouting into the wind here.

You said this is a rebuild right? Where is the center coming from if that is your path?

 

[AKL]

You said this is a rebuild right? Where is the center coming from if that is your path?

I think even @Dr Jan Itor can vouch that I've been discussing the viability of trades and free agents as well, even if we don't agree on the players we think fit. I've also brought up Dubois to you at least once as an example of a good target that we know Guerin was interested in. And I was on board with trading for Trochek last season.

To a large degree this is semantics, but I find it really hard to call what he's been doing a rebuild. The only proactive move he's made in that direction was trading Zucker, and that was a case where the player was almost getting pushed off the roster by Kaprizov and he had his old boss busting down his door to acquire him. Beyond that the most rebuild-y thing he's done is not trade futures. Which is... fine, but I don't know that I'd call that a rebuild. Especially when what he has been proactive about is extending UFAs that, in most rebuilds, would be traded for futures.

Like I don't know what label to slap on this, but I think "rebuild" requires a lot of squinting.

If you guys are hung up on the term rebuild, we can use a different term. I'd certainly like him to be trading more UFA's, but he has gone as far to say that he's still looking to build up the prospect pool and organizational depth through the draft, and he won't be trading futures unless the piece he's getting in return fit long term, and he's going to take a patient approach. Use whichever term you think fits the best.

 

[2Pair]

The very good team? His plan looks to be acquire a young center not just an older one in his prime about to flop. This team currently looks ok sure but let’s be honest in a proper year we are not third in our division.

Sure they are. They would be the 3rd best team in last years version of the West division. Arguable that they would be 2nd.

 

[Prior]

I think even @Dr Jan Itor can vouch that I've been discussing the viability of trades and free agents as well, even if we don't agree on the players we think fit.

Were you not trying to establish that viable centers do not move and when they do, are extremely hard to acquire?

So again, where is the center coming from if you think a 2024-25 drafting timeline is absurd and centers do not come available? Genuinely curious what you are trying to say in this several page diatribe.

 

[AKL]

Were you not trying to establish that viable centers do not move and when they do, are extremely hard to acquire?

So again, where is the center coming from if you think a 2024-25 timeline is absurd and centers do not come available? Genuinely curious what you are trying to say in this several page diatribe.

You're being ignorant, and I can't tell if it's intentional or not. I'm also not sure which one is worse.

 

[Prior]

You're being ignorant, and I can't tell if it's intentional or not. I'm also not sure which one is worse.

I’m honestly just trying to follow along.

 

[AKL]

I’m honestly just trying to follow along.

I said it's difficult to acquire top 6 centers via trade for various reasons, most of which are out of Guerin's control, and as such, I'm not going to hold it against Guerin that he couldn't land either Trochek or Dubois, and I'm not going to necessarily hold it against him if no good options become available this summer either.

I never once said we shouldn't try to acquire a center via trade if one becomes available. And like I already told you, I was on board with trading for both Dubois and Trochek at the time. So I'm not sure where you formed the opinion that I think the draft is the only way we should try to get one.

 

[Bazeek]

If you guys are hung up on the term rebuild, we can use a different term. I'd certainly like him to be trading more UFA's, but he has gone as far to say that he's still looking to build up the prospect pool and organizational depth through the draft, and he won't be trading futures unless the piece he's getting in return fit long term, and he's going to take a patient approach. Use whichever term you think fits the best.

I'm honestly not sure what to call this, which I guess is where I'm lost and a little annoyed.

From various discussions over the years I understand that you think rebuilding is the right approach and I largely respect your reasons even if I don't agree with all of them. But if I'm going by what Guerin's done I really don't think he shares that reasoning, even if he's ended up at the same spot on a few things like not being more aggressive about a center. It really feels like his strategy isn't dictated by patience or haste so much as the path of least resistance, which is worrying.

 

[Prior]

I said it's difficult to acquire top 6 centers via trade for various reasons, most of which are out of Guerin's control, and as such, I'm not going to hold it against Guerin that he couldn't land either Trochek or Dubois, and I'm not going to necessarily hold it against him if no good options become available this summer either.

I never once said we shouldn't try to acquire a center via trade if one becomes available. And like I already told you, I was on board with trading for both Dubois and Trochek at the time. So I'm not sure where you formed the opinion that I think the draft is the only way we should try to get one.

Fair enough.

What I am saying is that what you are outlining is laying the foundation to the only realistic path to addressing the position is by drafting and developing. Which is fine and proves successful when you identify the right players but it is going to take the type of time that does not benefit the bulk of this roster.

The center ice position was an issue when Guerin arrived. It is a bigger issue now when he has a team that is largely positioned to contend within a second/third tier of team as currently constructed. What he’s done to address the position is to move out the team’s only productive center (of which I am fine with but it still happened), add Bjugstad and Bonino, and draft some promising options.

That is a failure. It will be an indictment if he cannot address the NHL center position by the start of next season.

 

[Prior]

It really feels like his strategy isn't dictated by patience or haste so much as the path of least resistance, which is worrying.

Bingo.

 

[AKL]

I'm honestly not sure what to call this, which I guess is where I'm lost and a little annoyed.

From various discussions over the years I understand that you think rebuilding is the right approach and I largely respect your reasons even if I don't agree with all of them. But if I'm going by what Guerin's done I really don't think he shares that reasoning, even if he's ended up at the same spot on a few things like not being more aggressive about a center. It really feels like his strategy isn't dictated by patience or haste so much as the path of least resistance, which is worrying.

If you want me to play devil's advocate for everything Guerin has done, this would be the argument I'd make.

I think moving on from Zucker was the right move, because we had an excessive amount of left shot wingers both on the roster and coming up through the system. Zucker was one of the more expensive options that was still easy to move. Moving him for a top prospect and a 1st was an easy decision that solved a few issues as well as improved organization depth.

I think during the offseason, when he was acquiring various centers or "centers" (Johansson, Bonino, Bjugstad) he was looking to give himself more flexibility going forward. I think he expected them to be better than they have been, and I think he expected them to be insulating Rossi to a degree, which, obviously neither of those worked. But if you make the reasonable assumption that Rossi would have been better than Rask this season, the center situation is already less dire.

I think the reason he traded Staal was either because he wanted a different style of player, or if we take him at face value, maybe Staal was a little lackadaisical in his approach to training and playing at this point in his career.

And the big one, I think the reason he signed Spurgeon, Brodin and Foligno to extensions is because, not only does he like their character and their on ice play, but in the case that a center does become available that he can grab via trade, he still has the core intact. Rather than adding Dubois (a recent example) to a defense of Suter-Dumba, Soucy-Addison, Hunt-Pateryn, he's adding Dubois to a strong playoff caliber defense, and the "rebuild" is "over" sooner.

I think all in all, his moves do indicate that he likes the foundation, and is willing to be patient for the right missing pieces. Again, it's not a rebuild in the traditional sense where you're selling off all the UFA's and stockpiling draft picks and prospects, it's a rebuild in the sense that he's getting rid of the pieces he doesn't want on his team long term, keeping the pieces he does want on his team, and patiently looking for pieces to fill in the rest.

He's harped more than a few times that he is building (trying to build) a Cup winning team. Not a division winning team, not a team that can make it to the second or third round of the playoffs, but a team that will win a Cup. So you can say a guy like Monahan or Danault will improve our center position, and they might even be enough for us to reach the second or third round, but if Guerin doesn't see the player as being key to winning a Cup, he's probably not going to do it.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Sure they are. They would be the 3rd best team in last years version of the West division. Arguable that they would be 2nd.

In a proper year we are in the central and battling for a wild card spot

 

[DeagleJenkins]

So you feel that a draft that is perceived as not overly strong will produce the player the Wild need and that a lost development year for a majority of eligible prospects will not have an impact?

Not to mention that season that was abnormal will not impact the timeline on when a player could contribute to an NHL team. So yes, if the plan is to draft and develop and that is where the center will come from, I feel 2024-25 is a reasonable timeline.

Plans change. A good manager in sports (or any profession) need to be able identify that and adapt. This may have been a rebuild but when the team is playing at the level they are and are staring down giving the contracts they will be to Kaprizov, Fiala, and JEE; guess what? They’re not in a rebuild any longer with how the rest of the roster is constructed and the money they are allocating.

A good manager needs to identify that and take advantage.



Colorado is one of the teams this team would have a difficult time competing with in the playoffs. Can include Tampa in that as well. This team would lose 90+% of the time in a series against them. There’s not a lot of other teams out there playing the type of hockey that this team cannot match up with and win series against beyond those two teams.

That in my view is a very good team.

Vegas also did it and I can see other strong offensive teams doing the same. We have a decent team and are growing but as I said in a normal year playing the entire league we would be closer to middle of the pack than we are now.

 

[AKL]

Fair enough.

What I am saying is that what you are outlining is laying the foundation to the only realistic path to addressing the position is by drafting and developing. Which is fine and proves successful when you identify the right players but it is going to take the type of time that does not benefit the bulk of this roster.

The center ice position was an issue when Guerin arrived. It is a bigger issue now when he has a team that is largely positioned to contend within a second/third tier of team as currently constructed. What he’s done to address the position is to move out the team’s only productive center (of which I am fine with but it still happened), add Bjugstad and Bonino, and draft some promising options.

That is a failure. It will be an indictment if he cannot address the NHL center position by the start of next season.

And I might argue that, with Rossi, it's already been addressed. And then you would argue that Rossi isn't enough and we need a better or more established player.

So we don't disagree that the center position needs improvement. We're (me vs. apparently everyone else) struggling to find common ground on the degree to which he needs to address it in order to not consider it abject failure.

 

[JP Flow]

I think even @Dr Jan Itor can vouch that I've been discussing the viability of trades and free agents as well, even if we don't agree on the players we think fit. I've also brought up Dubois to you at least once as an example of a good target that we know Guerin was interested in. And I was on board with trading for Trochek last season.



If you guys are hung up on the term rebuild, we can use a different term. I'd certainly like him to be trading more UFA's, but he has gone as far to say that he's still looking to build up the prospect pool and organizational depth through the draft, and he won't be trading futures unless the piece he's getting in return fit long term, and he's going to take a patient approach. Use whichever term you think fits the best.

One thing that’s causing me a lot of confusion is the signing someone like Foligno and not figuring out the Dumba situation already and not moving out any UFA’s yet. Feels like very mixed messages.

But I do wonder, him talking a fair bit about his experiences as a player guiding some of his decision making as a GM, if he feels like this group has earned the right to shoot their shot in the playoffs considering where they are in the standings. As a result, the pending UFA’s stay out through the end of the season, and if the market isn’t there for Dumba (and it seems like it isn’t), then there’s not a lot of urgency to do that either.

It feels like everyday I ask myself if Guerin has a plan, because I find so much contradiction in what he’s done to this point, but I also can’t help but feel like there could be a rational explanation behind a lot of his decisions. I genuinely can’t tell if he’s an idiot or playing 4D chess.

 

[Bazeek]

If you want me to play devil's advocate for everything Guerin has done, this would be the argument I'd make.

I think moving on from Zucker was the right move, because we had an excessive amount of left shot wingers both on the roster and coming up through the system. Zucker was one of the more expensive options that was still easy to move. Moving him for a top prospect and a 1st was an easy decision that solved a few issues as well as improved organization depth.

I think during the offseason, when he was acquiring various centers or "centers" (Johansson, Bonino, Bjugstad) he was looking to give himself more flexibility going forward. I think he expected them to be better than they have been, and I think he expected them to be insulating Rossi to a degree, which, obviously neither of those worked. But if you make the reasonable assumption that Rossi would have been better than Rask this season, the center situation is already less dire.

I think the reason he traded Staal was either because he wanted a different style of player, or if we take him at face value, maybe Staal was a little lackadaisical in his approach to training and playing at this point in his career.

And the big one, I think the reason he signed Spurgeon, Brodin and Foligno to extensions is because, not only does he like their character and their on ice play, but in the case that a center does become available that he can grab via trade, he still has the core intact. Rather than adding Dubois (a recent example) to a defense of Suter-Dumba, Soucy-Addison, Hunt-Pateryn, he's adding Dubois to a strong playoff caliber defense, and the "rebuild" is "over" sooner.

I think all in all, his moves do indicate that he likes the foundation, and is willing to be patient for the right missing pieces. Again, it's not a rebuild in the traditional sense where you're selling off all the UFA's and stockpiling draft picks and prospects, it's a rebuild in the sense that he's getting rid of the pieces he doesn't want on his team long term, keeping the pieces he does want on his team, and patiently looking for pieces to fill in the rest.

He's harped more than a few times that he is building (trying to build) a Cup winning team. Not a division winning team, not a team that can make it to the second or third round of the playoffs, but a team that will win a Cup. So you can say a guy like Monahan or Danault will improve our center position, and they might even be enough for us to reach the second or third round, but if Guerin doesn't see the player as being key to winning a Cup, he's probably not going to do it.

And I find most of that reasoning plausible, but I don't think it's very good management. It seems like each decision has been made in a vacuum, and it's culminated in (probably) losing a very valuable asset for nothing. Not even the 50/50 satisfaction of a strong playoff run.

 

[2Pair]

In a proper year we are in the central and battling for a wild card spot

Chicago
Nashville
Winnipeg
Colorado
Minnesota
Dallas
St. Louis

Like I said, 3rd best team, possibly 2nd.

 

[Prior]

In a proper year we are in the central and battling for a wild card spot

Would love to hear an argument about why the Avs and Wild wouldn’t have already ran away and hid from what is a very poor Central.

And I might argue that, with Rossi, it's already been addressed. And then you would argue that Rossi isn't enough and we need a better or more established player.

So we don't disagree that the center position needs improvement. We're (me vs. apparently everyone else) struggling to find common ground on the degree to which he needs to address it in order to not consider it abject failure.

Certainly could have been.

The early talk coming from the Wild about Rossi not exactly being given a spot would have me skeptical but that’s pretty standard talk for making rookies earn things. Would still question whether they are drafting someone like him and planning their team around using him that year. Not what I would consider sound management regardless.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Chicago
Nashville
Winnipeg
Colorado
Minnesota
Dallas
St. Louis

Like I said, 3rd best team, possibly 2nd.

Debatable. Peg isn’t playing bad hockey, Dallas looks good and the blues are either good or not so you can’t bet on them either way. We are not a sure fire 2 seed

 

[AKL]

And I find most of that reasoning plausible, but I don't think it's very good management. It seems like each decision has been made in a vacuum, and it's culminated in (probably) losing a very valuable asset for nothing. Not even the 50/50 satisfaction of a strong playoff run.

And I would agree, and have been very critical of some of his moves and the consequences of them.

All I'm saying is the one thing I do agree with him on is not rushing out to find any old center just because we're weak at the position right now. I think it's very important to demonstrate patience, to a degree, when you're making this type of commitment. I wish he would have demonstrated the same type of care in his other decisions.

But at the same time, I'm not going to grill him for losing Dumba for nothing just because Russo said Guerin might be leaning towardsa losing Dumba for nothing. I will gladly roast him over a bonfire if it actually happens. I'll also be more willing to burn him at the stake if we find out that one or more good, young, long term center options are available this summer, and someone else gets them and we don't. I'm only going to judge him by the actions he's actually taken or not taken, not the actions he needs to take in the future.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Would love to hear an argument about why the Avs and Wild wouldn’t have already ran away and hid from what is a very poor Central.



Certainly could have been.

The early talk coming from the Wild about Rossi not exactly being given a spot would have me skeptical but that’s pretty standard talk for making rookies earn things. Would still question whether they are drafting someone like him and planning their team around using him that year. Not what I would consider sound management regardless.

You’re selling short the rest of the central far too easily. We all know we would lose to the hawks at least a few times no matter how bad they are supposed to be