Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - LIII

[AKL]

How many prior years have we had a quality 5v5 offense and poor pp and claim that was ok going into the playoffs as you don’t get many pp and then when we never score on the pp oh we need an upgrade? I may be delusional but I recall it being a running theme that a good pp in the playoffs is not needed until we get there and then it’s so obvious that is the thing we needs besides a hot goalie.

So against the Vegas, Colorado, St. Louis, Nashville, Tampa, Florida group this season, we're averaging 3.1 gf/g and 4.2 ga/g. I think the focus should be lowering the 4.2, not raising the 3.1 number. In the grand scheme of the league, averaging 3 ga/g is a lot more manageable than averaging 4.5 gf/g. It's a lot easier to do, it's far more common to see happen.

As for special teams in the playoffs, last year against Vegas we were 18.2% on the PP, Vegas was 13.3%. We went 2/11, they went 2/15. We got outscored 13-20. So we got outscored 11-18 at even strength. I would say that means that by and large, while the PP can be important, it doesn't make or break a series unless one team is comically better than the other. Like if they gave us as many PP's as Vegas got, and we were 50% on them while Vegas was the 13% they were, we still would have been outscored overall 18-20.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Spurgeon has missed the last 6 games and Brodin has missed the last 3. We've played 35. It's hardly outrageous to say we had a defense/goaltending problem before they got injured.

Has it only been 6 games for Spurgeon? Feels like he has been out for years.

 

[AKL]

Has it only been 6 games for Spurgeon? Feels like he has been out for years.

Well he's missed more than 6 total, I guess. But the last time he played was December 16th, and the Wild have only played 6 games in that month or so.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I’m interested to see how Talbot looks when he gets back. The big Kahk has better numbers and might be a deserving starter.

 

[GuerinUp]

The willful ignorance is recognizing that this teams downfall is defense and goaltending and saying "oh well what can you do" while whining about how not upgrading the offense is a miss. The team is third in the league in goals per game. You can surely see how dumb that is from a logical perspective. Diminishing returns is a real theory and you're going balls to wall against it. If you're serious about actually fixing the issues and making a Cup you'd be talking about bringing in a defenseman or goaltender to improve the teams weakness, not bringing in a center because it feels nice.

you do know that you can win by simply scoring more goals right? also, adding a center will help on team defense as well.

Ultimately what it comes down to is you wanting to do the wrong thing for the wrong reasons.

Most teams that make big deadline acquisitions do so because they see they have a team that looks like it has a real shot at winning the Cup, but maybe has one small hole they want to patch up, or maybe they don't feel they have any holes, and they just want to bolster their team a little bit, or like Fletcher did with Hanzal, keep their competition from bolstering their team or patching their holes.

What you and others are doing is making a move simply for the sake of making a move. You know the real hole is defense and goaltending, not offense, but you don't really care about that, and making a bad move is better than making no move at all. That's dumb and emotionally charged.

no, we just arent ignorant to the fact that adding a good center, that not only helps drive possession, but is also good in their own end not only fills our weakest hole on the roster, but also helps the defense.

 

[57special]

I think that the center on that line is the biggest weak spot on the roster. I also think that it is the easiest to upgrade. The bar is low enough that you don't even have to buy into the Miller/Hertl tier to make a difference.

Goaltending is always going to take on oversized importance in the playoffs though, at least in my mind. The goaltender is more likely to determine the outcome of a given game or series than any other position, but that's just the nature of the position. Especially on a team with solid depth and few acute weaknesses. We could go out and acquire the best goalie on the market and it wouldn't really change that.

The only other thing that stands out in importance for the playoffs is special teams, but that's also one of the reasons I think centers are worth looking into.

One thing that isn't being talked about, and might be meaningfully addressed by the addition of an offensively creative C that can win FO's is this team's PP, which is mediocre. Special teams are often the difference in the playoffs, when you have two good teams squaring off against each other. I believe that the addition of Addison, Boldy, and the Mystery C would go a long way towards making our PP dangerous.
.

 

[AKL]

One thing that isn't being talked about, and might be meaningfully addressed by the addition of an offensively creative C that can win FO's is this team's PP, which is mediocre. Special teams are often the difference in the playoffs, when you have two good teams squaring off against each other. I believe that the addition of Addison, Boldy, and the Mystery C would go a long way towards making our PP dangerous.
.

I highlighted the PP point, specifically in last years playoffs, a few posts back. Winning faceoffs would be a pretty nice boon, but how much do you think the centers play on ice will actually help the PP? Right now we're at 17%, and the league median is 19.5%. For the amount of powerplay opportunities we've had, having a league median powerplay would mean an extra 3 goals across 35 games this season. Having a league best powerplay would be 14 more goals across 35 games, which would bring our offensive production from 3rd in the league up to 3rd in the league.

I'm not trying to deny that the PP can be an important factor in team success at times, but a mere marginal increase in production on the PP from where we are right now would have virtually no impact on the overall standings. This player we would acquire to improve our PP would have to singlehandedly raise it by over 12% to really make a big difference, and that's just not likely to happen. Especially considering that outside of faceoffs, the center on the top PP unit is pretty much relegated to net front duties, given the PP will run through Kaprizov, Zuccarello and Boldy.

And as far as being the difference in the playoffs, my post above about the Vegas series says that that's not true. We had a higher PP% than Vegas did and still got outscored handily in the series.

 

[P10p]

Well he's missed more than 6 total, I guess. But the last time he played was December 16th, and the Wild have only played 6 games in that month or so.

Brodin as missed 6 games and Spurgeon has missed 14.

That's 40% of our games played without our captain, and arguably our best dman. But sure, gloss over this super important piece of the equation, can let facts construe a great narrative.

 

[MNNumbers]

When is the TDL?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

When is the TDL?

March 21st I think.

 

[AKL]

Brodin as missed 6 games and Spurgeon has missed 14.

That's 40% of our games played without our captain, and arguably our best dman. But sure, gloss over this super important piece of the equation, can let facts construe a great narrative.

The Wild allow more goals per game when Spurgeon is in the lineup than when Spurgeon is out of the lineup.

 

[Wabit]

The Wild allow more goals per game when Spurgeon is in the lineup than when Spurgeon is out of the lineup.

They score less goals too.

 

[AKL]

They score less goals too.

In fact they don't. 4.1 goals per game without him, 3.4 goals per game with him.

 

[P10p]

The Wild allow more goals per game when Spurgeon is in the lineup than when Spurgeon is out of the lineup.

Don't think a 20 game sample size outweighs his career enough to imply he is a negative defensively.

 

[AKL]

Don't think a 20 game sample size outweighs his career enough to imply he is a negative defensively.

Yeah, I didn't think you would let facts get in the way of a narrative.

 

[Wabit]

In fact they don't. 4.1 goals per game without him, 3.4 goals per game with him.

I was agreeing with you. I looked up the stats a couple days ago.

With Spurgeon:
21 games, 71 gf, 66 ga, 3.38 gf/g, 3.14 ga/g, record 12-8-1, 25 points, 97.6p pace
Without Spurgeon:
14 games, 57 gf, 40 ga, 4.07 gf/g, 2.86 ga/g, record 10-2-2, 22 points, 128.9p pace

 

[AKL]

I was agreeing with you. I looked up the stats a couple days ago.

With Spurgeon:
21 games, 71 gf, 66 ga, 3.38 gf/g, 3.14 ga/g, record 12-8-1, 25 points, 97.6p pace
Without Spurgeon:
14 games, 57 gf, 40 ga, 4.07 gf/g, 2.86 ga/g, record 10-2-2, 22 points, 128.9p pace

I'm sorry, I misunderstood your post, took it to mean they score less when he's out.

 

[Wabit]

Don't think a 20 game sample size outweighs his career enough to imply he is a negative defensively.

Over his entire career the Wild have been the same p% with or without him, per season. He really has made 0 difference on the Wild winning or losing games. It's why I've said for years the Wild needed to get rid of him and use his cap hit on something else.

This year is the first that there has been a significant change with him or without him.

 

[AKL]

Still not on board with trading valuable assets for a deadline rental like Giroux, but seeing Gaudreau almost lead forwards in ice time through two periods has got me considering being on board with acquiring a less expensive center to replace him, depending on who's available. Though at this point I would put Rask there and see what happens.

 

[Spurgeon]

Still not on board with trading valuable assets for a deadline rental like Giroux, but seeing Gaudreau almost lead forwards in ice time through two periods has got me considering being on board with acquiring a less expensive center to replace him, depending on who's available. Though at this point I would put Rask there and see what happens.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Rask is Swedish because I think you might be developing Stockholm Syndrome.

 

[AKL]

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Rask is Swedish because I think you might be developing Stockholm Syndrome.

No, Gaudreau is just really awful. The guy has no clue what to do in the offensive zone. At least Rask knows what to do, even if he can't always execute it.

 

[57special]

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Rask is Swedish because I think you might be developing Stockholm Syndrome.

Underrated post

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Anybody else just kind of want to see Fiala with Boldy and and a good center for the rest of the time that Fiala has here, and isn't so worried about that good center ultimately winning us the Cup? Or is that just me?

Certainly part of it

 

[BagHead]

No, Gaudreau is just really awful. The guy has no clue what to do in the offensive zone. At least Rask knows what to do, even if he can't always execute it.

As a Rasketeur, I will say that Rask is exactly what he should be, the worst 2nd line center you could imagine. He can score, he can't defend, he is everything you hoped and feared he could be.

What a strange comparison. Rask is mediocre in both zones. Gaudreau is excellent in one zone and terrible in the other.

 

[fgobuzz]

Is there any possibility that they could sign Staal to be the 2C upgrade between Fiala and Boldy?