Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - LIII

[57special]

Chycrun for Marat+ 1st+ Lambos...maybe? Hurts my head a bit thinking of cap consequences, but i think it'll work. Gives us the freedom to move Dumba, if necessary, so we can recoup some prospects/picks/talent. Rossi, no way. We simply can't lose him.

Giroux/Pavelski- 1st + Hunt? Sure. 1st + Marat/ROR/Peart?...ehhh...no.

I like the way this team is going now. They play really well for each other, and have a bright future, even though the salary cap penalties over the next three years will hurt. In some ways there is a silver lining , as Guerin will have to be careful about how he negotiates contracts, and makes trades. That can't be the worst thing for a GM to learn.

 

[AKL]

i think you wrote a whole lot of words, to prove a point, that in itself is false. you stated you need great players around your great player before you make deadline moves... something we have. We literally went to game 7 against vegas last year, and barring an injury to our best defenseman, couldve won that game and series. We just took the best team in the west to a shootout with our 2 best defensemen out of the game, and arguably our best or second best center out. our team is better this year than it was last year.

There is no harm in losing 1 high 20s first round pick to take a swing. that pick, may end up being a serviceable player, but the chance of it being an elite one is very slim.

now if the original post was sarcasm, i missed it in translation and i apologize.

I think you and people like you have been saying this same thing for years and you've been wrong every time.

 

[Bazeek]

I think there's a lot of sense in adding a center at the deadline this year. I don't know if we'd want to stomach what it'll take to get Miller (who would be ideal), but an upgrade on Gaudreau for Fiala and Boldy would pay enormous dividends. Even a lower key addition (like Namestnikov) gives the team more depth for a hellish schedule leading into the playoffs.

Calling up Rossi feels like it should be Plan D here. He's been doing well but I think he needs more time before contributing like Boldy has. It's unlikely to pay off well enough to justify losing that contract slide, which will be an asset for the next 3 years.

So I don't know who exactly the target should be or what it'll cost, but the '22 1st and prospects like Khusnutdinov, Beckman, Hunt, O'Rourke, Peart, etc. should at least be on the table. There's prospect depth to deal from there, and whatever is lost will likely be recouped by a.) some offseason trades, and b.) not having another chance to do this for the next 3 years.

Standing pat would be a miss in my book.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Not a joke. 100% of teams have won a Cup without prime Kaprizov so it's possible to win one without prime Kaprizov.

Still pretty funny.

 

[MNNumbers]

No Rossi this year, because we need his contract to slide so that there are chances for a big Cup run in the next few years.

An end of year rental this year would be possible, so long as it costs draft pick, but no big prospects.

 

[57special]

No Rossi this year, because we need his contract to slide so that there are chances for a big Cup run in the next few years.

An end of year rental this year would be possible, so long as it costs draft pick, but no big prospects.

Would we rather lose a 1st+ prospect, or bring up Rossi, which might cost us $$ 3 years, rather than 4 years from now?

I'd say the main thing is not to lose sight of the big picture, which is what is best for Rossi, and Rossi's development(which ultimately benefits the Wild). Many were impatient to bring up Boldy last year- IMO, he could've played, but he was not nearly as ready as he is now. It might not have mattered, but some times it does. Throwing prospects off the deep end too soon can harm, and sometimes shatter prospects. The money/contract thing is a lesser issue.

 

[Wabit]

Chycrun for Marat+ 1st+ Lambos...maybe? Hurts my head a bit thinking of cap consequences, but i think it'll work. Gives us the freedom to move Dumba, if necessary, so we can recoup some prospects/picks/talent. Rossi, no way. We simply can't lose him.

Giroux/Pavelski- 1st + Hunt? Sure. 1st + Marat/ROR/Peart?...ehhh...no.

I like the way this team is going now. They play really well for each other, and have a bright future, even though the salary cap penalties over the next three years will hurt. In some ways there is a silver lining , as Guerin will have to be careful about how he negotiates contracts, and makes trades. That can't be the worst thing for a GM to learn.

That is what I was thinking for Chychrun. Trade Dumba (get back some of the value spent on Chychrun) in the offseason and use that extra $1.4m to resign both Fiala and Greenway.

The FWD roster is then pretty much set for the next 2+ seasons, 4 d-men signed through the buyout years, and doesn't include any of the other ELC/RFA in those numbers. It makes for a sustainable lineup through the buyout years even if the prospects don't pan out or take longer than expected.

Would we rather lose a 1st+ prospect, or bring up Rossi, which might cost us $$ 3 years, rather than 4 years from now?

I'd say the main thing is not to lose sight of the big picture, which is what is best for Rossi, and Rossi's development(which ultimately benefits the Wild). Many were impatient to bring up Boldy last year- IMO, he could've played, but he was not nearly as ready as he is now. It might not have mattered, but some times it does. Throwing prospects off the deep end too soon can harm, and sometimes shatter prospects. The money/contract thing is a lesser issue.

I don't think Rossi would make an impact this year if he was given the chance. He needs the offseason workout programs more than anything else right now. It's just hard to add strength and speed during the season.

 

[MuckOG]

That is what I was thinking for Chychrun. Trade Dumba (get back some of the value spent on Chychrun) in the offseason and use that extra $1.4m to resign both Fiala and Greenway.

The FWD roster is then pretty much set for the next 2+ seasons, 4 d-men signed through the buyout years, and doesn't include any of the other ELC/RFA in those numbers. It makes for a sustainable lineup through the buyout years even if the prospects don't pan out or take longer than expected.

I'm done with Greenway. I've been waiting years for him to round out his game and be a more consistent force and its just not happening. I would rather trade him for futures and roll with:

Foligno - Ek - Duhaime.

 

[MNNumbers]

Would we rather lose a 1st+ prospect, or bring up Rossi, which might cost us $$ 3 years, rather than 4 years from now?

I'd say the main thing is not to lose sight of the big picture, which is what is best for Rossi, and Rossi's development(which ultimately benefits the Wild). Many were impatient to bring up Boldy last year- IMO, he could've played, but he was not nearly as ready as he is now. It might not have mattered, but some times it does. Throwing prospects off the deep end too soon can harm, and sometimes shatter prospects. The money/contract thing is a lesser issue.

With respect to Rossi, at this point in the season, I can't see it making a huge difference in his development to be a call-up for the playoffs over getting the rest of his contract limit number of games. That being the case, I would prefer to leave him in Iowa until next year, since that means his contract slides and his ELC covers the remainder of the dead-cap era.

I would be okay with a small price for a one year rental for a center for Boldy and Fiala (although I would like to see how much they need one over a larger data set of games before deciding on that.)

And, the big question going forward is going to be something like: Do you try to sign Fiala again, knowing that his negotiations are going to be difficult, or do let him go for cap space?

 

[Wabit]

I'm done with Greenway. I've been waiting years for him to round out his game and be a more consistent force and its just not happening. I would rather trade him for futures and roll with:

Foligno - Ek - Duhaime.

I want nothing to do with Duhaime playing higher in the lineup. He's fine as a 4th line energy guy, but that is it.

 

[Wabit]

With respect to Rossi, at this point in the season, I can't see it making a huge difference in his development to be a call-up for the playoffs over getting the rest of his contract limit number of games. That being the case, I would prefer to leave him in Iowa until next year, since that means his contract slides and his ELC covers the remainder of the dead-cap era.

I would be okay with a small price for a one year rental for a center for Boldy and Fiala (although I would like to see how much they need one over a larger data set of games before deciding on that.)

And, the bug question going forward is going to be something like: Do you try to sign Fiala again, knowing that his negotiations are going to be difficult, or do let him go for cap space?

I resign Fiala and give the team a quality 3rd line instead of 1 guy dragging around 2 dead weight players.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I think there's a lot of sense in adding a center at the deadline this year. I don't know if we'd want to stomach what it'll take to get Miller (who would be ideal), but an upgrade on Gaudreau for Fiala and Boldy would pay enormous dividends. Even a lower key addition (like Namestnikov) gives the team more depth for a hellish schedule leading into the playoffs.

Calling up Rossi feels like it should be Plan D here. He's been doing well but I think he needs more time before contributing like Boldy has. It's unlikely to pay off well enough to justify losing that contract slide, which will be an asset for the next 3 years.

So I don't know who exactly the target should be or what it'll cost, but the '22 1st and prospects like Khusnutdinov, Beckman, Hunt, O'Rourke, Peart, etc. should at least be on the table. There's prospect depth to deal from there, and whatever is lost will likely be recouped by a.) some offseason trades, and b.) not having another chance to do this for the next 3 years.

Standing pat would be a miss in my book.

An extra year of a Rossi ELC a should be worth more than a late 1st to us

 

[MuckOG]

I want nothing to do with Duhaime playing higher in the lineup. He's fine as a 4th line energy guy, but that is it.

He would be just as, or more effective than Greenway and at a lesser cost.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I want nothing to do with Duhaime playing higher in the lineup. He's fine as a 4th line energy guy, but that is it.

what dont you like about his game?

 

[Bazeek]

An extra year of a Rossi ELC a should be worth more than a late 1st to us

In a vacuum it's probably debatable, but Rossi would have to be a deadline acquisition caliber NHL player right now to make it worth it. I have zero complaints about how he's been progressing, but I don't think he's there yet.

So yeah, I agree. The 1st+ probably nets you a difference maker, while burning Rossi's contract slide probably doesn't. And I expect 2022-2026 Marco Rossi to be a much more substantial player than our 2022 1st round pick will be.

 

[57special]

I don't think Rossi would make an impact this year if he was given the chance. He needs the offseason workout programs more than anything else right now. It's just hard to add strength and speed during the season.

Agreed. By just about every metric you can find, Rossi simply hasn't been able to get in nearly enough games compared to similar prospects, and the extra summer of training will be enable him to be at his best next year. He looks good in the AHL, but it's not like he is killing it.

 

[MNNumbers]

In a vacuum it's probably debatable, but Rossi would have to be a deadline acquisition caliber NHL player right now to make it worth it. I have zero complaints about how he's been progressing, but I don't think he's there yet.

So yeah, I agree. The 1st+ probably nets you a difference maker, while burning Rossi's contract slide probably doesn't. And I expect 2022-2026 Marco Rossi to be a much more substantial player than our 2022 1st round pick will be.

I agree with this. And, if you are going to use your first for a rental to take a shot at a run, then the way to do it is to wait, because....

If everyone is healthy, the D for the Wild right now is okay. Not great, but ok.
However, if you have a long term injury, there is a good argument to be made that where you need help is a D, not a C, and you have time to think about that.

 

[GuerinUp]

I think you and people like you have been saying this same thing for years and you've been wrong every time.

how have i been wrong? We havent picked up a single player i would have traded for at a deadline in our entire existence.

That is what I was thinking for Chychrun. Trade Dumba (get back some of the value spent on Chychrun) in the offseason and use that extra $1.4m to resign both Fiala and Greenway.

The FWD roster is then pretty much set for the next 2+ seasons, 4 d-men signed through the buyout years, and doesn't include any of the other ELC/RFA in those numbers. It makes for a sustainable lineup through the buyout years even if the prospects don't pan out or take longer than expected.

greenway can kick sand

 

[Bazeek]

I agree with this. And, if you are going to use your first for a rental to take a shot at a run, then the way to do it is to wait, because....

If everyone is healthy, the D for the Wild right now is okay. Not great, but ok.
However, if you have a long term injury, there is a good argument to be made that where you need help is a D, not a C, and you have time to think about that.

The problem I see with adding a defenseman is that it'd be difficult to upgrade on Brodin, Dumba and Spurgeon, and realistically they're not going to push Goligoski out of the top-4. So we'd be looking at adding someone better than Kulikov/Merrill/Addison for the third pairing and/or depth. Which I guess is fine, but probably isn't going to make a difference.

Plus I think you can chalk most of the goals against up to losing so many key defensive players at once: Spurgeon, Ek, Brodin, etc. Not to mention our starting goalie. With a mostly healthy roster I don't think the team has defensive issues, at least not in terms of personnel. Execution can be a different issue some nights...

Goaltending still seems like this team's most likely downfall in the playoffs, but what can you do about it at this point? I actually don't hate the fact that Kahkonen's been forced to play more with Talbot out - it seems like he's doing better with some more games, and with our revised schedule that'll probably continue. Maybe we'll get lucky and he's the guy that catches fire.

 

[keppel146]

Chycrun for Marat+ 1st+ Lambos...maybe? Hurts my head a bit thinking of cap consequences, but i think it'll work. Gives us the freedom to move Dumba, if necessary, so we can recoup some prospects/picks/talent. Rossi, no way. We simply can't lose him.

Giroux/Pavelski- 1st + Hunt? Sure. 1st + Marat/ROR/Peart?...ehhh...no.

I like the way this team is going now. They play really well for each other, and have a bright future, even though the salary cap penalties over the next three years will hurt. In some ways there is a silver lining , as Guerin will have to be careful about how he negotiates contracts, and makes trades. That can't be the worst thing for a GM to learn.

I’d trade Peart before Hunt. If they said he was a lock for team Canada, some grit is still hat this wild team is missing.

 

[AKL]

The problem I see with adding a defenseman is that it'd be difficult to upgrade on Brodin, Dumba and Spurgeon, and realistically they're not going to push Goligoski out of the top-4. So we'd be looking at adding someone better than Kulikov/Merrill/Addison for the third pairing and/or depth. Which I guess is fine, but probably isn't going to make a difference.

Plus I think you can chalk most of the goals against up to losing so many key defensive players at once: Spurgeon, Ek, Brodin, etc. Not to mention our starting goalie. With a mostly healthy roster I don't think the team has defensive issues, at least not in terms of personnel. Execution can be a different issue some nights...

Goaltending still seems like this team's most likely downfall in the playoffs, but what can you do about it at this point? I actually don't hate the fact that Kahkonen's been forced to play more with Talbot out - it seems like he's doing better with some more games, and with our revised schedule that'll probably continue. Maybe we'll get lucky and he's the guy that catches fire.

What you can do about it is not trade valuable futures for a piece that will likely have a negligible impact on this teams playoff run because you're willfully ignoring the "most likely downfall" because "what can you do"

 

[Bazeek]

What you can do about it is not trade valuable futures for a piece that will likely have a negligible impact on this teams playoff run because you're willfully ignoring the "most likely downfall" because "what can you do"

It's probabilities all the way down. What's the probability of winning a playoff round? What's the probability of winning a Cup? What's the probability that Pick/Prospect X is going to turn into an NHLer? Or a core player? There's no good way to actually quantify any of those, so everyone's just left eyeballing it. It's not willful ignorance to try to take all that in and still decide that it's worth it. Any more than it's willful ignorance to decide that it isn't.

My own opinion is that the chances of winning a Cup are always low, regardless of how great a roster looks or how flawlessly a given 5-year plan was executed. There will always be a fly in the ointment that might indicate that this isn't The Year. Right now I think that fly is goaltending, but the fact remains: this is their best chance to do something really entertaining for the next 4 seasons, and it coincides with some fantastic seasons from key players. I'm not willing to brush that off.

 

[AKL]

It's probabilities all the way down. What's the probability of winning a playoff round? What's the probability of winning a Cup? What's the probability that Pick/Prospect X is going to turn into an NHLer? Or a core player? There's no good way to actually quantify any of those, so everyone's just left eyeballing it. It's not willful ignorance to try to take all that in and still decide that it's worth it. Any more than it's willful ignorance to decide that it isn't.

My own opinion is that the chances of winning a Cup are always low, regardless of how great a roster looks or how flawlessly a given 5-year plan was executed. There will always be a fly in the ointment that might indicate that this isn't The Year. Right now I think that fly is goaltending, but the fact remains: this is their best chance to do something really entertaining for the next 4 seasons, and it coincides with some fantastic seasons from key players. I'm not willing to brush that off.

The willful ignorance is recognizing that this teams downfall is defense and goaltending and saying "oh well what can you do" while whining about how not upgrading the offense is a miss. The team is third in the league in goals per game. You can surely see how dumb that is from a logical perspective. Diminishing returns is a real theory and you're going balls to wall against it. If you're serious about actually fixing the issues and making a Cup you'd be talking about bringing in a defenseman or goaltender to improve the teams weakness, not bringing in a center because it feels nice.

 

[MNNumbers]

It's probabilities all the way down. What's the probability of winning a playoff round? What's the probability of winning a Cup? What's the probability that Pick/Prospect X is going to turn into an NHLer? Or a core player? There's no good way to actually quantify any of those, so everyone's just left eyeballing it. It's not willful ignorance to try to take all that in and still decide that it's worth it. Any more than it's willful ignorance to decide that it isn't.

My own opinion is that the chances of winning a Cup are always low, regardless of how great a roster looks or how flawlessly a given 5-year plan was executed. There will always be a fly in the ointment that might indicate that this isn't The Year. Right now I think that fly is goaltending, but the fact remains: this is their best chance to do something really entertaining for the next 4 seasons, and it coincides with some fantastic seasons from key players. I'm not willing to brush that off.

I don't necessarily agree with this idea. I actually like the roster as it sets up for the next 3 years. G might actually improve post-Talbot because of our prospect pool. Rossi is coming in next year and can only improve for a few years. Boldy will improve.

None of us are too set on Greenway, so there are ways to replace him. The Kap line isn't going anywhere.

Basically, this is a roster who can take a puncher's chance at a Cup every year for a few years. Not in the same way that Koivu teams did. We have strongly skilled offensive players under team control.

And, of all of that, the only exception is Fiala.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

The willful ignorance is recognizing that this teams downfall is defense and goaltending and saying "oh well what can you do" while whining about how not upgrading the offense is a miss. The team is third in the league in goals per game. You can surely see how dumb that is from a logical perspective. Diminishing returns is a real theory and you're going balls to wall against it. If you're serious about actually fixing the issues and making a Cup you'd be talking about bringing in a defenseman or goaltender to improve the teams weakness, not bringing in a center because it feels nice.

i think he hit the defense thing pretty spot on in a recent post, you are not going to go shopping for an upgrade over dumba brodin or spurgeon and goligoski highly unlikely falls out of the top 4, so are you going to go shopping for someone just better than kulikov merrill and benn? probably not as that does seem somewhat of a waste. goaltending i can agree on as it has been suspect. kahk has looked decent but talbot has not so doing something about that makes sense. the C issue is simply upgrading one of our other weaknesses with a player who can actually play above everyone we have currently that can help in multiple areas such as pp, maybe pk and faceoffs. Giroux is a better upgrade to buy than a possible 3rd pairing dman. whatever goalie available at the deadline may be a different story though.