SpinningEdge
Registered User
Since the roster looks pretty set and the team was overall pretty healthy last year, I put together the 2015-2016 team (as of right now) total goals. Sure, maybe a player or two comes in, but this is a good basis to go off of right now.
Ovechkin 53
Johansson 20
Oshie 19
Backstrom 18
Williams 18
Carlson 12
Kuznetsov 11
Beagle 10
Burakovsky 9
Chimera 7
Laich 7
Alzner 5
Niskanen 4
Wilson 4
Schmidt 1
Orpik 0
Latta 0
Orlov 0
So.... as of right now this is our projected starting 18 skaters. Last year they combined for 188 goals/game.... which is a 2.29 goals per game average.
I have been saying all along the lack of a true secondary scorer that the team can count on (Burro/Kuzy are hopeful - but not proven) is going to get this team in trouble.
AS OF RIGHT NOW OUR 2ND LEADING GOAL SCORER ON THE TEAM FROM LAST YEAR IS MARCUS JOHANSSON!
Last year 10 of the top 11 goal scoring teams made the playoffs - the top two goals scoring teams in our conference made the conf finals. To win you have to score goals. Right now the numbers are concerning...
To be a top 11 team in goals (which gives you a 91% chance of making the playoffs where being outside the top 10 only gives you a 26% chance of making the playoffs - you have to get to about 230 or more goals.
That Capitals scored 237 goals in the regular season last year which means the Caps need to expect to get about 50 more goals this year additional than what the players on the roster as of right now last year combined for. IMO, that's a lot to expect.
My issue is w/ the bottom 6 being weaker now we are probably not going to see a spike from Beagle, Laich, Chimera, Latta, Wilson, etc. Sure, one may have a 15 goal season - but It's just as likely Beagle goes from 10 goals to 5 or so too, so it will probably be about the same.
... So even if Ovi has another 50+ goal season, he still needs his teammates to improve on 40-50 goals more this year. Considering we already are really bad at scoring goals in the playoffs (2 goals per game last postseason and just 2 goals per game the last 3 playoff series), that's tough. Holtby had under a 2.22 GAA in each of the last three playoffs hes played in (1.92 GAA overall) and we've lost in the 2nd rd, 1st rd, and 2nd rd. The team needs to find ways to score more when it counts.
So I've looked at the players who I think could jump up in goal scoring this year. I think we can all agree those players are Burakovsky, Kuznetsov, Orlov, and Schmidt (they combined for 21 goals last year). So for them to be the guys that get us the additional 40-50 goals, that means we need them to get 60-75 total goals this year. I just don't see that happening. Sure, maybe Kuzy and Burro each get 25 goals (which would be huge), but that still isn't an improvement on the team. Even if Kuzy gets 20 goals, Burro 20 goals, Schmidt/Orlov total 10 goals, Wilson gets 10 goals, etc... we are still right where we were last year.
I have been pretty stoked on the additions of Oshie/Williams as It's exciting - but those type of players being added at the expense of Mike Green, Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, and Eric Fehr just don't make you go from 2nd rd choker to Stanley Cup favorite.
Numbers never lie - and these numbers right now are scary. I think as of right now when you use math - this is a team that is fighting for a Wild Card spot. Sure, you can still win with excellent defense, but our bottom pairing is very unproven and counting on the top 4 to stay healthy all year isn't logical either.
We'll see... but hopefully this puts things a bit in perspective for everyone. I know It's still early and way too early to project - but I think It's obvious the Caps desperately still need a secondary true goal scorer to get over this hump and be a real contender IMO.
Let's hope the young guys (Kuzy/Burro/Wilson/etc) take a big leap this year. It's not just a bonus if they do, but actually needed now.
Ovechkin 53
Johansson 20
Oshie 19
Backstrom 18
Williams 18
Carlson 12
Kuznetsov 11
Beagle 10
Burakovsky 9
Chimera 7
Laich 7
Alzner 5
Niskanen 4
Wilson 4
Schmidt 1
Orpik 0
Latta 0
Orlov 0
So.... as of right now this is our projected starting 18 skaters. Last year they combined for 188 goals/game.... which is a 2.29 goals per game average.
I have been saying all along the lack of a true secondary scorer that the team can count on (Burro/Kuzy are hopeful - but not proven) is going to get this team in trouble.
AS OF RIGHT NOW OUR 2ND LEADING GOAL SCORER ON THE TEAM FROM LAST YEAR IS MARCUS JOHANSSON!
Last year 10 of the top 11 goal scoring teams made the playoffs - the top two goals scoring teams in our conference made the conf finals. To win you have to score goals. Right now the numbers are concerning...
To be a top 11 team in goals (which gives you a 91% chance of making the playoffs where being outside the top 10 only gives you a 26% chance of making the playoffs - you have to get to about 230 or more goals.
That Capitals scored 237 goals in the regular season last year which means the Caps need to expect to get about 50 more goals this year additional than what the players on the roster as of right now last year combined for. IMO, that's a lot to expect.
My issue is w/ the bottom 6 being weaker now we are probably not going to see a spike from Beagle, Laich, Chimera, Latta, Wilson, etc. Sure, one may have a 15 goal season - but It's just as likely Beagle goes from 10 goals to 5 or so too, so it will probably be about the same.
... So even if Ovi has another 50+ goal season, he still needs his teammates to improve on 40-50 goals more this year. Considering we already are really bad at scoring goals in the playoffs (2 goals per game last postseason and just 2 goals per game the last 3 playoff series), that's tough. Holtby had under a 2.22 GAA in each of the last three playoffs hes played in (1.92 GAA overall) and we've lost in the 2nd rd, 1st rd, and 2nd rd. The team needs to find ways to score more when it counts.
So I've looked at the players who I think could jump up in goal scoring this year. I think we can all agree those players are Burakovsky, Kuznetsov, Orlov, and Schmidt (they combined for 21 goals last year). So for them to be the guys that get us the additional 40-50 goals, that means we need them to get 60-75 total goals this year. I just don't see that happening. Sure, maybe Kuzy and Burro each get 25 goals (which would be huge), but that still isn't an improvement on the team. Even if Kuzy gets 20 goals, Burro 20 goals, Schmidt/Orlov total 10 goals, Wilson gets 10 goals, etc... we are still right where we were last year.
I have been pretty stoked on the additions of Oshie/Williams as It's exciting - but those type of players being added at the expense of Mike Green, Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, and Eric Fehr just don't make you go from 2nd rd choker to Stanley Cup favorite.
Numbers never lie - and these numbers right now are scary. I think as of right now when you use math - this is a team that is fighting for a Wild Card spot. Sure, you can still win with excellent defense, but our bottom pairing is very unproven and counting on the top 4 to stay healthy all year isn't logical either.
We'll see... but hopefully this puts things a bit in perspective for everyone. I know It's still early and way too early to project - but I think It's obvious the Caps desperately still need a secondary true goal scorer to get over this hump and be a real contender IMO.
Let's hope the young guys (Kuzy/Burro/Wilson/etc) take a big leap this year. It's not just a bonus if they do, but actually needed now.
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