Toronto's "Offence First" Approach - results from Qualifiers

[93WrapAround]

You’re right you can’t build your team around offence only, other ingredients needed, but it’s the most important part. Now Sandin is a puck moving offence defenceman and I wish he could’ve got some game action too but if offence isn’t what we need then I’m not sure how he would’ve helped. I’m not a Marincin fan but wouldn’t he be considered a playoff type defensive defenceman?

Imho I think the puck control game is eventually going to turn the leafs great team and I hope hockey goes that way. That’s why I hope Tampa wins because it’s a much better game to watch then suffocating defence and it’s a copycat league.

I think there's a common misconception that slower big body defencemen who don't have much offense to their games, are defensive defencemen. You need intelligence to be a good defensive defencemen, imo, and Marincin and Holl just don't have that at all to me. I can't tell you how many gaffs I see them both make and because of their lack of finesse/speed they are unable to recover as well. Of course size and grit is preferred on your blue line, but not at the expense of hockey IQ or ability to move the puck out. This is why I would have tried Sandin or any other higher IQ defencemen with some promise with the team over Marincin/Holl.

 

[93WrapAround]

Sandin was not given a chance because he is not ready for one. It's really quite easy to understand based on his 28 game sample this year... He was not ready for that kind of pressure as a defenceman in a playoff series. Things may change in a year however.

As people have also said, Johnsson was more proven than Robertson, who generally worked hard and had a few good chances (including a goal) but it was not like he was a game breaker.

As I broke it down in the series thread, it came down to we could not put the puck in the net despite generating many amazing opportunities and Andersen could not save the pucks he needed to save despite playing well on the whole. We get one (Andersen not letting in weak goals or having a respectable shooting percentage), we win this series. There are other things that could stand to improve, but perfection is not happening for any Cup winner in the Cap era and if we are talking solely about moving past the first round, those were the main reasons why it did not happen.

I'm not really buying the argument that Sandin isn't ready for that type of stage, when the guys he would be replacing have never been ready, nor ever will be.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No sense looking at advanced stats. People will be using those to claim that Toronto was better in the series and just didn't get the breaks. Just as some people made the argument over the preceding months that Tampa had actually been the better team last year when they were swept.

We did way better than Tampa did last year. Tampa was the better team at 5v5 and did not deserve to be swept, but they were not better overall. Tampa got like no calls, which was a part of it, but even when they did, they were the worst team in the playoffs at generating offensive opportunities on the PP. They were good on the PK, but their goaltending was atrocious at literally every strength; PP (0.000 SV% - 16th), PK (0.667 SV% - 16th), and 5v5 (0.906 SV% - 15th), which sunk them.

Toronto on the other hand was better at every strength. They were better 5v5. They were better on the PP. They were better on the PK. They were better overall. Even our goaltending on special teams was better than theirs.

Basically, the only thing that Columbus was better at this year, was 5v5 goaltending, and it won them the series due to the lack of special teams time in the series.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

One of the main storylines, from my point of view, is how poorly we did converting on our chances during this qualifier series.

Many will talk about how Toronto needs to improve it's defence, and there is merit to that...but there is more to this story.

Let's first take a look at some stats.

Team:

	Team	CF%	FF%	GF%	xGF%	SCF%	SCGF%	SCSH%	SCSV%	HDCF%	HDSH%	HDSV%	SH%	SV%	PDO
1	Toronto Maple Leafs	53.05	52.67	23.08	55.15	55.09	37.5	2.05	95.8	59.26	4.17	93.94	1.97	92.42	0.944
2	Columbus Blue Jackets	46.95	47.33	76.92	44.85	44.91	62.5	4.2	97.95	40.74	6.06	95.83	7.58	98.03	1.056

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

POSITIVES

• Toronto was able to generate more chances, and quite a few more high danger chances 5v5.
• Toronto was also able to control the puck better, and dictated play for the majority of the series.

NEGATIVES

• Toronto could not capitalize, with a 2% lower scoring chance and high danger chance shooting %.
  
• Toronto could not get the big saves, with a significantly lower save% for all chance types at 5v5.

Players:

View attachment 359687

• While the big 4 did carry play often during this series, they were still only able to combine for a 0.85 p/gp pace. This is only 70 points each in an 82 game season. Obviously the strength of Columbus' defensive structure flattens the high end possibilities for this number, but if you compare results and salaries, it is a landslide victory for Columbus in those matchups. Their investment in containing the big 4 is minuscule compared to the investment Toronto made for that 0.85 p/gp result.

• Tavares seemed much more dangerous as a winger. 3 points in 5 gp is simply not good enough.
  
• Kapanen absolutely needs to be helping more than 2 pts in 5gp. That's a 30pt pace for a player that had 25ish goal expectations this season.
  
• Rielly dissapeared for most of the series, and Barrie was awful. Imagine your two top defensive defencemen combining for 1 point in 10 games.
  
• Pierre Engvall, Jason Spezza and Ilya Mikheyev combined for 0 points in 15gp...

A lot of negatives stand out here, but I think the one that I find most shocking is Rielly and Barrie. How can two defencemen that have 70 point skillsets finish the series with 1 point in 10gp?

For a frame of reference...

• Quinn Hughes had 6p in 4GP against a very stingy Minnesota Wild team.
• Ryan Pulock had 4p in 4GP.
• Shea Weber had 4p in 4GP.
• Miro Heiskanen had 4p in 3GP against much tougher competition.
  
• David Savard had 3p in 5GP.
• Chris Tanev, a defensive specialist, had 4p in 4GP.

This list goes on.

No offence generated from the D was a problem all series. This brings me around to Keefe.

Coaching

• Why did Robertson get the boot after playing well for the first 4 games? Why mess with the chemistry?
• Why did Sandin not see any ice when it was obvious the team needed better transition opportunities and more offence?
  
• I will give a plus for moving Tavares to the wing. This is where I think he should stay, I am quite a fan of his game on the wing.

Nice analysis. Words to back up the so called advanced stats. I like it.

Yeah our depth scoring was non-existent this series aside from that one Robertson goal and mega fluke Ceci goal. Needed more out of Kapanen, Kerfoot and Mikheyev especially.

Our D were plenty involved offensively. All those sweet turnovers led to some nice odd man rushes and goals in our end.

 

[rumman]

The high paid forwards were the least of this teams problems. Depth ruined us.

hard to have quality depth when half the cap's paid to 4 players....................

 

[geebster]

You can be built around offense so long as your star players buy in defensively. Playoff games are a chess match, pushing offensively without strong defensive structure just loses you the game unless you are against an inferior opponent. The commitment to playing a hard nosed shutdown game in the defensive and neutral zone always has to be priority 1, even if your team is built for offense. Multiple Stanley Cup winners were offense first, but they had buy in from their biggest names and throughout their lineup to shut down everything. Toronto's (and Edmonton's) stars seemed to play their defensive responsibilities like this was the regular season.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

If anything I noticed his reckless behavior a little too much during the series due to his willingness to join or start a rush in a desperate attempt to generate offense.

I want a stay at home #1D. I love Morgan but as the GM, I'm forced to move him if a more defensive D comes up.

 

[Srsly]

I want a stay at home #1D. I love Morgan but as the GM, I'm forced to move him if a more defensive D comes up.

In my opinion we’re better off keeping Morgan and acquiring a defense first positionally solid player to cover for his short comings.

 

[The Podium]

hard to have quality depth when half the cap's paid to 4 players....................

Well, considering we dont have 4-6 million tied in dead weight its not that hard. We spend to the cap unlike a lot of other teams as well, so there is another 5-10 mill that half the league isnt using.

Also, we have a 10 million 3rd line and we have some cap inefficiencies like 4.5 mill wasted on Ceci.

The following teams have 3rd lines costing as much or more than our 3rd line:
Colorado
Vancouver
Minnesota
Nashville

Yup, we have the 5th most expensive 3rd line in the league despite "not being able to afford depth". That money can be used better, whether it be re-allotted to different areas on the roster (D) or we discount the 3rd line with more consistently useful players.

Go into next season with the below filling the holes with more style appropriate players. Consider bringing back Mikheyev and maybe one of Kerfoot/Kapanen. The other of the 2 + Johnsson, Engvall, Clifford, Ceci, Barrie can all be shown the door. Then maybe consider a big shake up like Nylander/Marner/Andersen.

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
1mill - JT - Nylander
Robertson - 3mill - 1mill
750k - Spezza (750k) - 750k
750k

Rielly - 4.5 mill (Pesce for example)
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Dermott (1.5 mill)
750k

Andersen
Campbell

That is before considering dealing Marner or Nylander or swapping Gs to someone more affordable like Jarry for example. Also under the assumption we lose the lottery.

 

[BrainyBomber]

I think this series which was pegged as Offense vs Defense and Skill vs Will was a real teaching lesson for those that believe the team with the bigger offensive players will succeed and that speed and skill is the way to build a cup competitive team. I think we have a resounding rebuttal to that based on the actual results and a clear answer to that question.

Leafs got shutout in first game #1 and the last game #5 and came 3 minutes away without a hail marry to being shutout in game #4.

The 2nd highest scoring team in the regular season managed only 10 goals the entire series and was outscored by CBJ 10 to 3 at ES 5v5.

In fairness CBJ did this to TB last year but a lot of people didn't think that was applicable to this year not understanding its CBJ defense not their offense that propels them and that missing Panarin, Duchene and goalie Bob is irrelevant to their success model. Those players left thinking the grass was greener and now all are on the outside looking in while CBJ advance on the strength of their goaltending, defense and their 5 X Jack Adams nominee coach Torts.

Keefe was badly outcoached with his only real plan was to put all his eggs in 1 basket and create a 3 X $11 mil line and play them a lot and hope for the best, which played right into CBJ hand because they have 2 pillars on defense that shutdown the best players in the league regularly.

If defence is everything you don't think losing our best defensive player for 3 games was a factor?

 

[The Podium]

If defence is everything you don't think losing our best defensive player for 3 games was a factor?

Feel like this is overlooked by many. However, the Leafs SHOULD have depth to negate that loss a bit. Downgrading Muzzin to Marincin is unacceptable and hopefully Dubas addresses that this offseason.

 

[34]

I think it is safe to say that in the playoffs the offense first approach is a big fail. Columbus just proved the defense wins in the playoffs.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Columbus just proved the defense wins in the playoffs.

No they didn't. Aside from it being one 5-game series, our offense beat their defense. They just didn't beat their goaltender.

If this playoffs has shown anything, it's how crucial goaltending is.

 

[BrainyBomber]

Feel like this is overlooked by many. However, the Leafs SHOULD have depth to negate that loss a bit. Downgrading Muzzin to Marincin is unacceptable and hopefully Dubas addresses that this offseason.

I agree but ofcourse it's overlooked by some posters on here because they are afraid to admit to any mitigating factors that don't fit their agenda.

 

[34]

No they didn't. Aside from it being one 5-game series, our offense beat their defense. They just didn't beat their goaltender.

If this playoffs has shown anything, it's how crucial goaltending is.

That is a valid point, too bad Andersen **** the bed as usual. I never liked him, never liked his game.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

In my opinion we’re better off keeping Morgan and acquiring a defense first positionally solid player to cover for his short comings.

that's more realistic that's for sure

 

[Stephen]

The Big 4 was an failure and got downgraded Auston Matthews and 3 highly paid guys, each with their own unique weaknesses. The amount of scoring chances, cycle time doesn't really matter than much if you're not scoring like the Perfection Line and can't out duel Dubois and Atkinson.

 

[Havoc]

The only stat you need to see to know we lost is Holl @ 23 minutes ice time.

 

[Trapper]

that's more realistic that's for sure

I thought trading a prime piece (Kadri) was supposed to get us that RHD compliment we so desperately needed. Instead we got a soon to be UFA that was a horrible fail. Asset gone, issue remains.

 

[Robert]

In the playoffs defense usually wins.. I thought Anderson was outstanding, in game 5 you guys lost because you sent in your defensemen to score... But Korpisalo was hot after getting pulled.. Focus more on defense in the playoffs.. I also apologise for any stupid stuff I said last night.. The Leafs are original six... Nuff said..

 

[Eternal Leaf]

This style of play only works if you have a couple of Muzzins in the backend to cover up for mistakes. Even then, I don't think the supplementary wingers are good enough and/or play the right way to help the Leafs win during playoff hockey.

Too many flybys and weak hockey that doesn't work in the playoffs regardless of how skilled you are.

 

[DueDiligence]

The high paid forwards were the least of this teams problems. Depth ruined us. Both forward and D. [/B]

Marincin as a #7 just isnt good enough. Barrie and Ceci arent good enough. Mikheyev, Hyman, Kapanen, Kerfoot, Johnsson*, Engvall and Clifford were absolute non-factors.

Andersen proved again that he cant be the difference, hell play well enough to get by if the rest of the team is dominating, but he wont be the best player in the big games.

This team needs a complete depth overhaul.

Move forward with

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander OR Marner
XXXX - Tavares - XXXX

Rielly - XXXX
Muzzin - XXXX
Dermott - XXXX

XXXX
Campbell

Every other player is expendable IMO.

You answered you own question. The high priced forwards are the reason the team lacks depth. Dubas decided to pay almost $40 million for 4 players and he knew he would have to get a bunch of cheap guys to fill out the team. Cheap and good don't always go together.

 

[The Podium]

You answered you own question. The high priced forwards are the reason the team lacks depth. Dubas decided to pay almost $40 million for 4 players and he knew he would have to get a bunch of cheap guys to fill out the team. Cheap and good don't always go together.

We have the 5th most expensive 3rd line in the league. We pay Cody Ceci 4.5 mill and unlike half the league we spend to the cap. There is room for depth, we are currently paying for bad depth.

 

[DueDiligence]

We did way better than Tampa did last year. Tampa was the better team at 5v5 and did not deserve to be swept, but they were not better overall. Tampa got like no calls, which was a part of it, but even when they did, they were the worst team in the playoffs at generating offensive opportunities on the PP. They were good on the PK, but their goaltending was atrocious at literally every strength; PP (0.000 SV% - 16th), PK (0.667 SV% - 16th), and 5v5 (0.906 SV% - 15th), which sunk them.

Toronto on the other hand was better at every strength. They were better 5v5. They were better on the PP. They were better on the PK. They were better overall. Even our goaltending on special teams was better than theirs.

Basically, the only thing that Columbus was better at this year, was 5v5 goaltending, and it won them the series due to the lack of special teams time in the series.

Last year's Columbus team had Panarin, Duchene, Bobrovsky and Dzingel on it. Way more firepower.

 

[DueDiligence]

We have the 5th most expensive 3rd line in the league. We pay Cody Ceci 4.5 mill and unlike half the league we spend to the cap. There is room for depth, we are currently paying for bad depth.

On the other hand the Leafs got Spezza on a great deal and Barrie came cheap. The Leafs have little room to make changes unless they make a big trade.