Toronto's "Offence First" Approach - results from Qualifiers

Merrrlin

Grab the 9 iron, Barry!
Jul 2, 2019
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One of the main storylines, from my point of view, is how poorly we did converting on our chances during this qualifier series.

Many will talk about how Toronto needs to improve it's defence, and there is merit to that...but there is more to this story.

Let's first take a look at some stats.

Team:

TeamCF%FF%GF%xGF%SCF%SCGF%SCSH%SCSV%HDCF%HDSH%HDSV%SH%SV%PDO
1Toronto Maple Leafs53.0552.6723.0855.1555.0937.52.0595.859.264.1793.941.9792.420.944
2Columbus Blue Jackets46.9547.3376.9244.8544.9162.54.297.9540.746.0695.837.5898.031.056
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
POSITIVES
  • Toronto was able to generate more chances, and quite a few more high danger chances 5v5.
  • Toronto was also able to control the puck better, and dictated play for the majority of the series.
NEGATIVES
  • Toronto could not capitalize, with a 2% lower scoring chance and high danger chance shooting %.
  • Toronto could not get the big saves, with a significantly lower save% for all chance types at 5v5.

Players:

upload_2020-8-10_9-50-55.png


  • While the big 4 did carry play often during this series, they were still only able to combine for a 0.85 p/gp pace. This is only 70 points each in an 82 game season. Obviously the strength of Columbus' defensive structure flattens the high end possibilities for this number, but if you compare results and salaries, it is a landslide victory for Columbus in those matchups. Their investment in containing the big 4 is minuscule compared to the investment Toronto made for that 0.85 p/gp result.
  • Tavares seemed much more dangerous as a winger. 3 points in 5 gp is simply not good enough.
  • Kapanen absolutely needs to be helping more than 2 pts in 5gp. That's a 30pt pace for a player that had 25ish goal expectations this season.
  • Rielly dissapeared for most of the series, and Barrie was awful. Imagine your two top defensive defencemen combining for 1 point in 10 games.
  • Pierre Engvall, Jason Spezza and Ilya Mikheyev combined for 0 points in 15gp...
A lot of negatives stand out here, but I think the one that I find most shocking is Rielly and Barrie. How can two defencemen that have 70 point skillsets finish the series with 1 point in 10gp?

For a frame of reference...

  • Quinn Hughes had 6p in 4GP against a very stingy Minnesota Wild team.
  • Ryan Pulock had 4p in 4GP.
  • Shea Weber had 4p in 4GP.
  • Miro Heiskanen had 4p in 3GP against much tougher competition.
  • David Savard had 3p in 5GP.
  • Chris Tanev, a defensive specialist, had 4p in 4GP.

This list goes on.

No offence generated from the D was a problem all series. This brings me around to Keefe.

Coaching
  • Why did Robertson get the boot after playing well for the first 4 games? Why mess with the chemistry?
  • Why did Sandin not see any ice when it was obvious the team needed better transition opportunities and more offence?
  • I will give a plus for moving Tavares to the wing. This is where I think he should stay, I am quite a fan of his game on the wing.
 
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93WrapAround

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Jul 4, 2018
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This is why you can't build your team around offense - the playoffs is generally a much tighter style of play that depends on defense and goaltending.

Top line had an amazing game last night yet couldn't convert. The entire team around them are mediocre at best, if not below average. This is a big problem.

Not to mention, Marincin, Holl and Ceci seem like borderline NHLers. We need Lilli and Sandin to become very solid defencemen and fast.

Edit: I'm not sure how I like Tavares on the wing. He is one of the smartest players on our team and also one of the hardest workers - it seems these talents are wasted on the wing.

Agreed on Sandin. No idea how this organization continues to put out bodies like Marincin and Holl who are god awful and dumb, over a raw talent like Sandin, who at least has some kind of promise and future.
 

The Podium

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Feb 19, 2010
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The high paid forwards were the least of this teams problems. Depth ruined us. Both forward and D.

Marincin as a #7 just isnt good enough. Barrie and Ceci arent good enough. Mikheyev, Hyman, Kapanen, Kerfoot, Johnsson*, Engvall and Clifford were absolute non-factors.

Andersen proved again that he cant be the difference, hell play well enough to get by if the rest of the team is dominating, but he wont be the best player in the big games.

This team needs a complete depth overhaul.

Move forward with

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander OR Marner
XXXX - Tavares - XXXX

Rielly - XXXX
Muzzin - XXXX
Dermott - XXXX

XXXX
Campbell

Every other player is expendable IMO.
 

Merrrlin

Grab the 9 iron, Barry!
Jul 2, 2019
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The high paid forwards were the least of this teams problems.

I disagree. I think you need more than 17 points in 20GP combined from the big boys if you plan on doing anything in the playoffs.

Matthews was great, the rest were good. Collectively, they came up way short.
 

The Podium

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I disagree. I think you need more than 17 points in 20GP combined from the big boys if you plan on doing anything in the playoffs.

Matthews was great, the rest were good. Collectively, they came up way short.

They were also playing one of the best defensive teams in the league and the control of play was not reflected on the scoresheet. Nylander aside, Marner, JT and Matthews all had dominant performances for the majority of the series.
 

Merrrlin

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They were also playing one of the best defensive teams in the league and the control of play was not reflected on the scoresheet. Nylander aside, Marner, JT and Matthews all had dominant performances for the majority of the series.

No question. However, they are paid to be game breakers. You can't have 4 players averaging salaries of 10 million/year getting shut down by players averaging 5 million/year. You just will never be able to win. Those 4 players need to win that matchup, even if it's tough.

The depth scoring only a few goals in 5 games is back breaking as well. That's a consequence of having 4 high end contracts, though.
 

The Podium

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No question. However, they are paid to be game breakers. You can't have 4 players averaging salaries of 10 million/year getting shut down by players averaging 5 million/year. You just will never be able to win. Those 4 players need to win that matchup, even if it's tough.

The depth scoring only a few goals in 5 games is back breaking as well.

The average salary of the opposing D is irrelevant, especially when you consider CBJ operates well below the cap ceiling so its not like the cap is being allotted elsewhere.

I understand the sentiment, but some days the puck doesnt find the back of the net. Tavares had 3 prime scoring chances, Matthews had 2. They hit couple posts and Korpisalo had a few lucky saves but lets not pretend JT, Matthews and Marner didnt show up.

The depth on the otherhand wasnt there all game. So much so that Torts could focus all of their matchup players against Matthews because theyll win all other matchups.
 

The Podium

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Have you considered that as long as you allocate close to half of your cap on 4 highly paid forwards, depth is likely to be an ongoing problem?

So perhaps it is not the least of this team's problems.

Considering our 3rd and 4th line is paid more than half the league's, there is some flexibility in improving depth. Also considering we have no cap anchors, we have more wiggle room to pay players than a team like Edmonton for example who has to deal with Neal's ~6 mill or the NYI with Ladd's 5 mill buried in the minors.

Also we arent married to our 3* highly paid forwards.
 

Mad hatter

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This is why you can't build your team around offense - the playoffs is generally a much tighter style of play that depends on defense and goaltending.

Top line had an amazing game last night yet couldn't convert. The entire team around them are mediocre at best, if not below average. This is a big problem.

Not to mention, Marincin, Holl and Ceci seem like borderline NHLers. We need Lilli and Sandin to become very solid defencemen and fast.

Edit: I'm not sure how I like Tavares on the wing. He is one of the smartest players on our team and also one of the hardest workers - it seems these talents are wasted on the wing.

Agreed on Sandin. No idea how this organization continues to put out bodies like Marincin and Holl who are god awful and dumb, over a raw talent like Sandin, who at least has some kind of promise and future.
You’re right you can’t build your team around offence only, other ingredients needed, but it’s the most important part. Now Sandin is a puck moving offence defenceman and I wish he could’ve got some game action too but if offence isn’t what we need then I’m not sure how he would’ve helped. I’m not a Marincin fan but wouldn’t he be considered a playoff type defensive defenceman?

Imho I think the puck control game is eventually going to turn the leafs great team and I hope hockey goes that way. That’s why I hope Tampa wins because it’s a much better game to watch then suffocating defence and it’s a copycat league.
 

robertmac43

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Mar 31, 2015
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  • Why did Robertson get the boot after playing well for the first 4 games? Why mess with the chemistry?
I think this story line is getting over plated right now. Robertson has a ton of potential but I would not say he looked amazing through his 4 games. AJ is obviously far more proven at this point and I think Keefe wanted to go with the guy who has delivered for him in the past. Don't think it's really something to use as a knock against Keefe.
 
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Merrrlin

Grab the 9 iron, Barry!
Jul 2, 2019
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I think this story line is getting over plated right now. Robertson has a ton of potential but I would not say he looked amazing through his 4 games. AJ is obviously far more proven at this point and I think Keefe wanted to go with the guy who has delivered for him in the past. Don't think it's really something to use as a knock against Keefe.

My only rebuttal is that Johnsson was a complete non-factor, as you would expect from a player who has been out for 6 months, and that the Leafs needed depth goal scoring.

Not a single player in the bottom 6 has the ability to score a goal like Robertson does. Why remove that for another Kapanen type?

If you want Johnsson in, there were a multitude of bottom 6ers who were producing nothing.
 

biotk

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Jan 3, 2017
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Let's first take a look at some stats.

No sense looking at advanced stats. People will be using those to claim that Toronto was better in the series and just didn't get the breaks. Just as some people made the argument over the preceding months that Tampa had actually been the better team last year when they were swept. The reality is, as people who watched either series should now, that these stats simply don't tell the story people think they do, and it is why I placed my bet on Toronto losing this series.
 

Mess

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I disagree. I think you need more than 17 points in 20GP combined from the big boys if you plan on doing anything in the playoffs.

Matthews was great, the rest were good. Collectively, they came up way short.

If you remove those magical 3 minutes of time with the goalie out in the series the big 4 combined for 10 points in the remaining 5 games combined.
 

robertmac43

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My only rebuttal is that Johnsson was a complete non-factor, as you would expect from a player who has been out for 6 months, and that the Leafs needed depth goal scoring.

Not a single player in the bottom 6 has the ability to score a goal like Robertson does. Why remove that for another Kapanen type?

If you want Johnsson in, there were a multitude of bottom 6ers who were producing nothing.
Personally I think AJ (when healthy) brings more all round play than Kap does and I can see why they wanted his skillset over Robertson in this series. He did score the goal and has a solid scoring tough, but he is extremely raw and looked out of place in some other areas of his games.
 

Clark4Ever

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Oct 10, 2010
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These are the guys under contract that I would use as trade bait to acquire upgrades on the blue line and grit up front:

Marner
Johnsson or Kapanen
Kerfoot
 

Srsly

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I didn’t feel like Rielly disappeared at all. He was generating a lot of chances but just couldn’t put the puck in the net. If anything I noticed his reckless behavior a little too much during the series due to his willingness to join or start a rush in a desperate attempt to generate offense. Barrie on the other hand was underwhelming in more ways than one. I’ve tried to defend him but someone with his experience and skill should be doing better than he did with the Leafs. I guess it was just a bad fit given our composition.

Honestly our best defensemen was Muzzin prior to his injury and it was a huge blow when he went down. He’s relied on heavily as the only traditional defensemen on the blue line.

I’m seeing a lot of folks wanting to trade Kerfoot and I totally understand the mindset as I was there a few weeks ago as well. But honestly I was impressed enough that I’m willing to give him another season to adjust. He played with a lot of heart and was a big reason for our improved penalty kill during the qualifiers.

I wanted more from the big four but I guess it wasn’t meant to be. Overall I was disappointed with their performance but at the same time I felt safest with them on the ice. I think if anything this points to Toronto needing better depth scoring. When Jason Spezza is the best finisher on the ice during the second power play you know you need more depth(unless it’s 2006)
 

AvroArrow

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Jun 10, 2011
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It's like having pocket rockets and then losing to some guy who played a 7-2 off suit that hit a flush. You re-do that scenario 100 times, and you win 99 hands.

The defence still needs major major work, but they played well enough and should have won that series. Dominated the puck, dominated the O-Zone, Korpisalo bailed them out quite a few times, and some extremely unlucky bounces for Andersen. You can't just look at the outcome, but the overall play.

If we break it down, neither team wanted game 1. I didn't see effort from either squad, if the leafs even just slightly wanted it they could've had it. That being said, we can hold our team accountable, not CBJ, the effort in game 1 was unacceptable.

Game 2 was utter domination

Game 3, WAS domination until we got the 3 goal lead. Then they went back to sleep like they were in game 1 and threw the game.

Game 4, was a miracle they came back to tie it and then win it in OT. Even CBJ's goals in that game were pretty ugly.

Game 5, played much better than CBJ, generated significantly more chances and O-zone time, the deciding factor was goaltending and some major luck

We should have won this series in 4 or 5 games, really unfortunate outcome. The Muzzin injury which was a direct result of 2 phantom penalty calls against us, was a huge turning point. But despite that, we still could have and should have won. It really just came down to Korpisalo standing on his head, Andersen played extremely well overall, but just got really unlucky in game 5. Apart from game 1, i'm not upset with the effort, it just sucks to lose when you played well enough to win.

Like my Anthropology Prof said. It's not just survival of the fittest, it's also survival of the luckiest.
 

Buds17

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One player on the good side of the +/- ledger is a tell. For me, Andersen only really had one rough game (4 GA). The Leafs won the game in which he surrendered three. Giving up two goals or fewer is giving the team a chance to win. The goaltending of the Jackets was obviously on a greater tier.

The offence first approach might have been a great idea had it shown up more/not been overshadowed by CBJ's efforts in net. Sandin in for Marincin might have been a good idea in an exchange of fill-in defencemen. I think it would have required reworked pairings though as Sandin-Barrie might have been an upgrade offensively but downgrade defensively. Johnsson was a regular on the team, so I didn't mind that switch even though I liked Robertson's contributions. A team that boasts what the Leafs do shouldn't have been too reliant on a Sandin or Robertson as difference makers.
 
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SeaOfBlue

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Aug 1, 2013
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Sandin was not given a chance because he is not ready for one. It's really quite easy to understand based on his 28 game sample this year... He was not ready for that kind of pressure as a defenceman in a playoff series. Things may change in a year however.

As people have also said, Johnsson was more proven than Robertson, who generally worked hard and had a few good chances (including a goal) but it was not like he was a game breaker.

As I broke it down in the series thread, it came down to we could not put the puck in the net despite generating many amazing opportunities and Andersen could not save the pucks he needed to save despite playing well on the whole. We get one (Andersen not letting in weak goals or having a respectable shooting percentage), we win this series. There are other things that could stand to improve, but perfection is not happening for any Cup winner in the Cap era and if we are talking solely about moving past the first round, those were the main reasons why it did not happen.
 

Mess

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I think this series which was pegged as Offense vs Defense and Skill vs Will was a real teaching lesson for those that believe the team with the bigger offensive players will succeed and that speed and skill is the way to build a cup competitive team. I think we have a resounding rebuttal to that based on the actual results and a clear answer to that question.

Leafs got shutout in first game #1 and the last game #5 and came 3 minutes away without a hail marry to being shutout in game #4.

The 2nd highest scoring team in the regular season managed only 10 goals the entire series and was outscored by CBJ 10 to 3 at ES 5v5.

In fairness CBJ did this to TB last year but a lot of people didn't think that was applicable to this year not understanding its CBJ defense not their offense that propels them and that missing Panarin, Duchene and goalie Bob is irrelevant to their success model. Those players left thinking the grass was greener and now all are on the outside looking in while CBJ advance on the strength of their goaltending, defense and their 5 X Jack Adams nominee coach Torts.

Keefe was badly outcoached with his only real plan was to put all his eggs in 1 basket and create a 3 X $11 mil line and play them a lot and hope for the best, which played right into CBJ hand because they have 2 pillars on defense that shutdown the best players in the league regularly.
 
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Trapper

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I think this series which was pegged as Offense vs Defense and Skill vs Will was a real teaching lesson for those that believe the team with the bigger offensive players will succeed and that speed and skill is the way to build a cup competitive team. I think we have a resounding rebuttal to that based on the actual results and a clear answer to that question.

Leafs got shutout in first game #1 and the last game #5 and came 3 minutes away without a hail marry to being shutout in game #4.

The 2nd highest scoring team in the regular season managed only 10 goals the entire series and was outscored by CBJ 10 to 3 at ES 5v5.

In fairness CBJ did this to TB last year but a lot of people didn't think that was applicable to this year not understanding its CBJ defense not their offense that propels them and that missing Panarin, Duchene and goalie Bob is irrelevant to their success model. Those players left thinking the grass was greener and now all are on the outside looking in while CBJ advance on the strength of their goaltending, defense and their 5 X Jack Adams nominee coach Torts.

Keefe was badly outcoached with his only real plan was to put all his eggs in 1 basket and create a 3 X $11 mil line and play them a lot and hope for the best, which played right into CBJ hand because they have 2 pillars on defense that shutdown the best players in the league regularly.
Solid D and forecheck never go away.
Offense only can.
It’s also more cost effective and most teams are built to stop the offense since not everyone gets to draft McDavid consistently.
The offense also needs some blue collar skill in the mix.
 

Merrrlin

Grab the 9 iron, Barry!
Jul 2, 2019
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I think this series which was pegged as Offense vs Defense and Skill vs Will was a real teaching lesson for those that believe the team with the bigger offensive players will succeed and that speed and skill is the way to build a cup competitive team. I think we have a resounding rebuttal to that based on the actual results and a clear answer to that question.

Leafs got shutout in first game #1 and the last game #5 and came 3 minutes away without a hail marry to being shutout in game #4.

The 2nd highest scoring team in the regular season managed only 10 goals the entire series and was outscored by CBJ 10 to 3 at ES 5v5.

In fairness CBJ did this to TB last year but a lot of people didn't think that was applicable to this year not understanding its CBJ defense not their offense that propels them and that missing Panarin, Duchene and goalie Bob is irrelevant to their success model. Those players left thinking the grass was greener and now all are on the outside looking in while CBJ advance on the strength of their goaltending, defense and their 5 X Jack Adams nominee coach Torts.

Keefe was badly outcoached with his only real plan was to put all his eggs in 1 basket and create a 3 X $11 mil line and play them a lot and hope for the best, which played right into CBJ hand because they have 2 pillars on defense that shutdown the best players in the league regularly.

That line played exceptionally well.They got tons of good chances against the top pairing, just didn't convert on wide open shots.

Of all my complaints, this would be near the bottom.
 
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Tak7

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I didn't see anything from the Leafs in this 5-game series that wasn't already an issue through the previous 70-game season.

So while you don't want to make too many snap judgments based on this mini-series, there's a 75-game sample size that is large enough to really hammer home some truths about the way this team has been built.

This is such a massive blow, and wake up call, for Kyle Dubas.
 

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