Toronto's "Offence First" Approach - results from Qualifiers

[The Podium]

On the other hand the Leafs got Spezza on a great deal and Barrie came cheap. The Leafs have little room to make changes unless they make a big trade.

Barrie will be replaced at a discount (Sandin) and Spezza will likely be back on that same deal.

 

[Durrr]

I disagree. I think you need more than 17 points in 20GP combined from the big boys if you plan on doing anything in the playoffs.

Matthews was great, the rest were good. Collectively, they came up way short.

Columbus did the same thing to Tampa last year, a much better overall team then the Leafs. Besides Marner who was awful in yet another series, the big guys were fine, we just got absolutely nothing from our depth to the point where the coach had to load a big line because everyone else was so collectively useless. Ditto from the defense, where Muzzin goes down and the rest of the D core are so useless they have to rely on Rielly and Ceci in every situation.

This isn't even an issue with the cap the big guys took up, because the depth we did have should have been far better then they were. You can't be paying guys like Kappenen Johnson or Kerfoot 4~ million to score at 35 point paces while being weak in the D zone, or Ceci at 4.5 million to be an absolute joke.

 

[lebdafor norris]

No they didn't. Aside from it being one 5-game series, our offense beat their defense. They just didn't beat their goaltender.

If this playoffs has shown anything, it's how crucial goaltending is.

Of course if your going to twist stats you could once again blame Andersen despite the problem being much more deeply rooted than him. Why did the OP only included 5 vs 5 sv%? Is it because pointing out the fact that Anderson has a perfect 1.00 save% during the penalty kill would completely blow his narrative that Andy was a major factor in losing the series for the Leafs.

Numbers wise, Andy might have been beaten by the CBJ's combine goaltending tandem which put up a ridiculous ~.950 sv% but Andy's .936 sv% is still nothing to scoff at. Maybe if the Leafs butter soft forwards actually got traffic on the net and battled the CBJ's Dmen for position in the slot, then they might had more bounces go their way, too bad they didn't put themselves in that position with the perimeter game they employed for most of the series, which is just a recipe for disaster in a tight checking, playoff environment.

Better corsi means squat when most of those chances are contested shots with absolutely no traffic in front of the goalie. The focus of the blame shouldn't be in the goalie that put up a fairly impressive .936%, but on the expensive, overrated offence that the opposing goaltender put up ~.950% on, they made those 2 CBJ goaltenders look like prime Hasek and 10/11 Tim Thomas, what a frustrating series to watch.

 

[ZEBROA]

when your eggs are in one basket they need to score in the first period. They should have kept Robertson for better firepower. And you dont throw a player in as second line C who aint that regulary in a playoffgame against a great defensive team . Go for the usual lines switch them up a little by moving one player. If trailing or struggeling last period, then go three lines and all eggs. Doubleshift Matthews.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Last year's Columbus team had Panarin, Duchene, Bobrovsky and Dzingel on it. Way more firepower.

Yeah. So what? That doesn't change anything I said.

Columbus' goaltenders played better this year than Bobrovsky did, so that one is not really a downgrade.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Of course if your going to twist stats

I haven't twisted any stats.

you could once again blame Andersen

Where did I blame Andersen?

Why did the OP only included 5 vs 5 sv%?

Because that's the only place we were beaten in this series.

Is it because pointing out the fact that Anderson has a perfect 1.00 save% during the penalty kill would completely blow his narrative that Andy was a major factor in losing the series for the Leafs.

What? I was the one who said that our goaltending on special teams was better than theirs. There just wasn't a lot of special teams time, which worked against us. That perfect performance on the PK was important, but it was only 12 shots, and our PKers did really well in front of him.

Numbers wise, Andy might have been beaten by the CBJ's combine goaltending tandem which put up a ridiculous ~.950 sv% but Andy's .936 sv% is still nothing to scoff at.

I never said Andersen was horrible. It's just a fact that he was outplayed though. That's not really his fault, though the backbreaking weak goals in game 1, 3, and 5 certainly didn't help.

Maybe if the Leafs butter soft forwards actually got traffic on the net and battled the CBJ's Dmen for position in the slot, then they might had more bounces go their way, too bad they didn't put themselves in that position with the perimeter game they employed for most of the series, which is just a recipe for disaster in a tight checking, playoff environment.

We were not perimeter at all. We got plenty of traffic and grade A scoring chances in the slot and in front of the net. Columbus was actually mostly perimeter, and a lot of their goals came from there.

Better corsi means squat

Where did I say anything about corsi?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I thought trading a prime piece (Kadri) was supposed to get us that RHD compliment we so desperately needed.

He was dumped in a rush because Dubas didnt like him and he was becoming a perceived liability (suspension in playoffs, next suspension will be 20 games).

 

[Mess]

If defence is everything you don't think losing our best defensive player for 3 games was a factor?

Defense isn't everything its just the most prominent thing to that brings you consistent success.

Losing Muzzin doesn't explain why the Leafs almost got shutout in 3 of the 5 games in the series.

All you have to do is look at the NHL standings where so many falsely focus on Goals For and driven by offensive stars and think Offense wins and then look at the results and see all the Matthews, Tavares, McDavid, Draisaitl, Crosby, Malkin, Panarin (top points leaders) etc etc on the sidelines while many of the teams in Goals Against best category move on to qualify for the playoffs.

Its how you explain Columbus, Islanders, Arizona, Montreal, Carolina, Calgary all with bottom 15 offenses but all one thing in common all top 15 in Goals Against.

Here are the NHL's top 10 best defenses (least goals against on the season) with bolded already qualified for playoffs without play-in.

1). Boston Bruins
2). Dallas Stars
3). Columbus Blue Jackets
4). Arizona Coyotes
5). Colorado Avalanche
6). St. Louis Blues
7). Carolina Hurricanes
8). New York Islanders
9). Tampa Bay Lightning
10). Philadelphia Flyers

Perfect 10 for 10 for qualifying and playing in this years playoffs.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Losing Muzzin doesn't explain why the Leafs almost got shutout in 3 of the 5 games in the series.

It seems the Leafs got zero or one goals alot of games this year. More than there virtual .500 record would attest to.

 

[Stephen]

He was dumped in a rush because Dubas didnt like him and he was becoming a perceived liability (suspension in playoffs, next suspension will be 20 games).

The more time I’ve had to cool down the more I think we need to hold on tight to the Big 4 and not just to any franchise altering mistakes similar to the Kadri deal. Have to be extremely careful like Colorado was with Matt Duchene when they finally got rid of him for optimal value.

 

[Merrrlin]

It seems the Leafs got zero or one goals alot of games this year. More than there virtual .500 record would attest to.

Inconsistency is the key issue that plagued the team all year. They were more Jekyl and Hyde than any team I've ever followed. They would shoot 20% for a month, then they would shoot 2% for 3 weeks. Andersen would go from .950 for a month, to .886 for the next month.

 

[Mess]

Inconsistency is the key issue that plagued the team all year. They were more Jekyl and Hyde than any team I've ever followed. They would shoot 20% for a month, then they would shoot 2% for 3 weeks. Andersen would go from .950 for a month, to .886 for the next month.

If you play "pond hockey" last goal wins style and you focus only scoring goals and not defending well, then you live by the sword and die by the sword as results are very inconsistent when you play strong defensive teams with good goaltending and you leave your goalie hanging out to dry regularly it will reflect in massive swings in SH% and SV% as a result.

Its how you explain a top 3 GF offense and bottom 5 defense GA with below average SV% and GAA.

It might work in the regular season based on volume of games and enough talent to outscore and put up enough points in the standings to qualify for the playoffs, but I'm sure now everybody has seen from CBJ series that style is not conducive to winning in the playoffs where defense and goaltending become more prominent in winning and shutting down this rush attack style, forcing Leafs to suddenly alter their entire game because of the tight checking and lower scoring with less time and space a rush attacks broken up with teams clogging up the neutral zone.

 

[Merrrlin]

It might work in the regular season based on volume of games and enough talent to outscore and put up enough points in the standings to qualify for the playoffs, but I'm sure now everybody has seen from CBJ series that style is not conducive to winning in the playoffs where defense and goaltending become more prominent in winning and shutting down this rush attack style, forcing Leafs to suddenly alter their entire game because of the tight checking and lower scoring with less time and space a rush attacks broken up with teams clogging up the neutral zone.

For once we agree - it's a liability in a short series.

I think it would even out if games were called the same way in the playoffs, but they aren't. Teams have free reign to hook and grab and interfere, which really tips the scales towards defensive shut down style. Which is unfortunate, because quite frankly, I love watching entertaining high even hockey where skill is on display.

 

[BrainyBomber]

Losing Muzzin doesn't explain why the Leafs almost got shutout in 3 of the 5 games in the series.

We won your "almost" shutout one by scoring 4 times! Muzzin was our best defensive player and since you are arguing that defence is huge his loss no doubt greatly diminished our chances of keeping the puck out in a very tight series.

You don't think having Muzzin in GW3 and we likely don't blow a 3 goal cushion?

If Columbus lost Jones the final 3 games I'm sure you would have said well that's a big loss in the most important area no wonder they lost but you are unwilling to say the same when we lose our best defender. Reeks of bias.

Obviously defence is very important as is having a balance and great goaltending. Neither of which we have much of.

 

[67Leafs67]

Offense first is not a problem. Plenty of teams that place an emphasis on offense win Stanley Cups, or go deep in the playoffs.

The problem is more "offense only". Toronto needs to strike a better balance. It isn't that every Stanley Cup winner is a defensive powerhouse, they just have a more capable, versatile group of defensive players, and are able to lean on their defense in some situations, and pour on the offense in others.

That being said, Toronto's problem in this series was not defense. It was a lack of finishing ability...which is odd given how many talented finishers we have. The reality is though, in a series of five games, sometimes your shooters go cold -- hence why you need balance. When your shooters are cold, you need solid goaltending and good defense to rely on until they heat up again. When your only contingency is something as volatile as shooting talent in a small sample, you're not helping your chances.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I think the biggest mistake in the series was putting Tavares on the top line. Not only is Nylander not a good centre, but the new line combinations were obviously unfamiliar with each other.

On top of that, Hyman is the driving force of the top line, and that was what they lacked. Despite having the 'super' line at the end of game four, who was it who set up the first goal and scored the tying one?

 

[Golden_Jet]

You don't think having Muzzin in GW3 and we likely don't blow a 3 goal cushion?

If Columbus lost Jones the final 3 games I'm sure you would have said well that's a big loss in the most important area no wonder they lost but you are unwilling to say the same when we lose our best defender. Reeks of bias.
.

Well they did lose Werenski, maybe if that doesn't happen the 3 goal comeback in last 4 minutes doesn't happen, maybe instead of 3 it's 1 or 2 goals, but not enough to extend series.

 

[BrainyBomber]

Well they did lose Werenski, maybe if that doesn't happen the 3 goal comeback in last 4 minutes doesn't happen, maybe instead of 3 it's 1 or 2 goals, but not enough to extend series.

Yep exactly my point. Injuries to key players matter alot.

And if we are establishing how important defence is. Ignoring the loss of our best defender for 3 of 5 games is poor analysis.

 

[cookie]

Maybe it's not the players, maybe it's the system that's being implemented where they're their own worst enemies?

 

[HockeyWooot]

In the modern game you won’t contend without having skill, but you aren’t likely to go far if you are purely skill and finesse.

Leafs remind me of the high-octane Caps from a decade ago. Similar core but a fairly different roster composition and system compared to their cup winning team.

The skill part is the hardest to acquire, so they’re not a bad spot to be in. With a few acquisitions they’ll have a more balanced lineup, and be much better off for it.

 

[Dreakmur]

For once we agree - it's a liability in a short series.

I think it would even out if games were called the same way in the playoffs, but they aren't. Teams have free reign to hook and grab and interfere, which really tips the scales towards defensive shut down style. Which is unfortunate, because quite frankly, I love watching entertaining high even hockey where skill is on display.

Toronto bails on physical contact so they don’t draw penalties. The number of times that a Toronto forward looked to have a step on the Columbus defense and just curled away rather than drive hard was ridiculous.

 

[613Leafer]

The high paid forwards were the least of this teams problems. Depth ruined us. Both forward and D.

To be fair, one of the main reasons we have weak depth, is because of the salary tied up in our top forwards.

Our highest paid 3rd liner makes 3.5M. We're not likely to add any superb 3rd liners for that price.

So even though our top forwards were generally our better players this series, theyre also the reason we have holes on D and up front.

 

[Notsince67]

Defense isn't everything its just the most prominent thing to that brings you consistent success.

Losing Muzzin doesn't explain why the Leafs almost got shutout in 3 of the 5 games in the series.

All you have to do is look at the NHL standings where so many falsely focus on Goals For and driven by offensive stars and think Offense wins and then look at the results and see all the Matthews, Tavares, McDavid, Draisaitl, Crosby, Malkin, Panarin (top points leaders) etc etc on the sidelines while many of the teams in Goals Against best category move on to qualify for the playoffs.

Its how you explain Columbus, Islanders, Arizona, Montreal, Carolina, Calgary all with bottom 15 offenses but all one thing in common all top 15 in Goals Against.

Here are the NHL's top 10 best defenses (least goals against on the season) with bolded already qualified for playoffs without play-in.

1). Boston Bruins
2). Dallas Stars
3). Columbus Blue Jackets
4). Arizona Coyotes
5). Colorado Avalanche
6). St. Louis Blues
7). Carolina Hurricanes
8). New York Islanders
9). Tampa Bay Lightning
10). Philadelphia Flyers

Perfect 10 for 10 for qualifying and playing in this years playoffs.

I noticed at the end of the game that the only player playing defense with a pulled goalie was Marner. Our D is more concerned about playing offense and letting forwards do their jobs. It is disgraceful

 

[Notsince67]

To be fair, one of the main reasons we have weak depth, is because of the salary tied up in our top forwards.

Our highest paid 3rd liner makes 3.5M. We're not likely to add any superb 3rd liners for that price.

So even though our top forwards were generally our better players this series, theyre also the reason we have holes on D and up front.

We gave holes on our d because Dubas has failed to adequately address them. We have up a #1/#2 center for a bust and continue to use analytical darling Marincin.

 

[Gallagbi]

Maybe it's not the players, maybe it's the system that's being implemented where they're their own worst enemies?

I'm 4 minutes in to the video and literally everything he has said and implied is wrong. He's spent the entire time wanting the Leafs to create odd man rushes on the PP while CBJ has all 4 players back.

He doesn't seem to understand that you're not going to out skate a trap defense and he has no idea what the dump back play is supposed to accomplish, and actually did accomplish in his first clip almost exactly as drawn up


You're trying to back off the D, which they did, gain the line and create possession on that PP. The clip with the biggest issue is Marners where he just doesn't execute the puck. Then 5on5 all the clips are Dermott/Holl neither of which are puck movers and are misreads off a confused Dermott.