Confirmed with Link: Toronto Maple Leafs file for club-elected salary arbitration with G Jonathan Bernier

[Kurisu]

make a judgement on goalies when there's a system in place. Can't fairly judge a goalie with disastrous defensive play over the last decade.

 

[Semantics]

So now top 5 goaltending is "very average". Interesting.

Bernier was only arguably top five two years ago, when he was 10th in the league in save percentage (min 20gp), and 5th among starters (min 41gp).

This season he was 32nd in save percentage (min 20gp), and 23rd in save percentage among #1 goalies min 41 gp). He had a negative goals saved above average, which by definition means he was below the league-wide save percentage. There were a number of backup goalies who were better than him.

It's crazy to consider him a top 5 goaltender just because of one good season, especially when it wasn't his most recent, and especially when this past season he was well below average. At best, you could say the last two seasons cancel out and he's average. So it's entirely appropriate that he should be payed the average league salary, i.e. around $3M.

 

[Mess]

I have no issue whatsoever with how the Leafs are handling this. In fact, I'm pleased. It's time we only gave out long term contracts to players who have absolutely earned them. We need to stop being afraid of losing people to free agency. In some cases it would be a real blessing.

And I actually like Bernier.

On another note, I hope that soon save percentage and other goalie stats will be exposed for the inadequate measures that I suspect them to be.

When you see the returns of Martin Jones, Robin Lehner, Cam Talbot in trade etc doesn't the thought Leafs walking away from Bernier as a free agent bother you?

If the Leafs don't believe Bernier is the answer then why not trade him if you don't want to commit to him?

Seems like a rebuilding team would want assets as opposed to losing players for nothing. IMO

 

[timlap]

When you see the returns of Martin Jones, Robin Lehner, Cam Talbot in trade etc doesn't the thought Leafs walking away from Bernier as a free agent bother you?

If the Leafs don't believe Bernier is the answer then why not trade him if you don't want to commit to him?

Seems like a rebuilding team would want assets as opposed to losing players for nothing. IMO

It just depends on all the circumstances. Right now we're talking in total hypotheticals. There's no reason to assume we aren't committing to him, and no reason to assume we wouldn't trade him.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Bernier was only arguably top five two years ago, when he was 10th in the league in save percentage (min 20gp), and 5th among starters (min 41gp).

This season he was 32nd in save percentage (min 20gp), and 23rd in save percentage among #1 goalies min 41 gp). He had a negative goals saved above average, which by definition means he was below the league-wide save percentage. There were a number of backup goalies who were better than him.

It's crazy to consider him a top 5 goaltender just because of one good season, especially when it wasn't his most recent, and especially when this past season he was well below average. At best, you could say the last two seasons cancel out and he's average. So it's entirely appropriate that he should be payed the average league salary, i.e. around $3M.

I didn't.

The guy I wrote to said he has provided average goaltending the last two seasons. I answered that it's not true, as his first season was a top 5 season.

As for backup goaltenders, they often produce good numbers. It's not exactly a rare thing for goaltenders with a smaller work load to produce better numbers than decent starters.

As for last season, when you dig deeper in the numbers he's pretty much average last season. Even strength is better to look at than normal save percentage, and you have to take into account Toronto's league-leading ratio of shots from high scoring areas.

 

[therealkoho]

You said he had been average the last 2 seasons. The first one as a Leaf was statistically a top 5 season.

Also have to say I'm very dubious to that list of yours. Some of those players have exactly the same question marks over a larger sample size. I'd rather have Bernier than Ramo, Miller, Dubnyk and Halak.

And my other point was since you mentioned how he didn't deserve a raise because he's not a bonafide #1 goaltender. There's a lot more fluidity to evaluation and contract negotiations than that.

that was a list of 16 guys including Bernier and there's still a few better goaltenders that I left off on purpose

and yet you put him at 12

mid level starter, I hope he gets better and plays his way into a 5+m dollar contract
but as of right now, I don't give him any kind of raise, there is no reason to reward regression

 

[Mess]

It just depends on all the circumstances. Right now we're talking in total hypotheticals. There's no reason to assume we aren't committing to him, and no reason to assume we wouldn't trade him.

See I view maybe we will commit to him long-term and maybe we will trade him as the hypotheticals, and the realism of the current situation as we didn't trade him when other teams did move goalies this summer, and they're not committing to him by asking for an arbitrator to award him a 1-year deal.

I hope that you're right and Leafs management doesn't botch this up and lose a movable asset for nothing as a free agent after tearing him down in arbitration making a case against him, and this is somehow salvageable in either locking him up or dealing him for futures and young assets.

No goodwill on long-term future is being built here and Bernier knows where he stands now with the Leafs organization taking him to court asking for 15% paycut. This appears like pushing a player out the door instead of believing in him and JB has the opportunity to walk away at seasons end, going to a team that would appreciate him more.

Most teams try to avoid the arbitration process because the process itself tends to damage relationships by the nature of the beast that is required by arguing your side against the player pointing out all his flaws and weaknesses. Then turning around and trying to build up confidence again after the ruling comes in, pretending nothing is wrong will be difficult to repair.

Be interesting to see how this all unfolds but it doesn't appear this will have a happy ending all things considered.

 

[Nithoniniel]

that was a list of 16 guys including Bernier and there's still a few better goaltenders that I left off on purpose

and yet you put him at 12

mid level starter, I hope he gets better and plays his way into a 5+m dollar contract
but as of right now, I don't give him any kind of raise, there is no reason to reward regression

I actually think about 13-14th fits him well. I agree about mid level starter and agree that he doesn't deserve a 5+ contract.

My stance on Bernier, just to clarify, is that he's still a wild card. He's shown incredible promise, and was mediocre in a crazy season. I feel it would be irresponsible not to give him another season to see if that mediocre season, due to the extremity of the situation, could be an outlier.

 

[Semantics]

As for backup goaltenders, they often produce good numbers. It's not exactly a rare thing for goaltenders with a smaller work load to produce better numbers than decent starters.

True, but some of them like Hammond and Talbot took larger roles due to injuries and IMHO are better than him.

Re: the trade talk, I think the Martin Jones trade was horrible by San Jose. People holding that up as a minimum standard for what we should get for Bernier are going to be disappointed. We kind of got a similar gift with a 1st for Franson (albeit lower than SJ's is likely to be), but it's unreasonable to expect us to be lucky enough to have an insane GM want trade with us every time. I'm sure Lou will have Benning's number on speed dial though.

 

[Semantics]

See I view maybe we will commit to him long-term and maybe we will trade him as the hypotheticals, and the realism of the current situation as we didn't trade him when other teams did move goalies this summer, and they're not committing to him by asking for an arbitrator to award him a 1-year deal.

I have no doubt we wanted to trade him, but since he had a bad year there aren't a lot of other teams willing to commit to him as their #1. Especially given that he's undersized for a goalie.

 

[Nithoniniel]

True, but some of them like Hammond and Talbot took larger roles due to injuries and IMHO are better than him.

Talbot perhaps, I have high thoughts about him. I'm not sure why you feel Hammond is a better goalie. That feels like proclaiming Marko Dano a top 50 player, an overreaction due to small sample size.

 

[Menzinger]

I don't see any point in this other than satisfying Reimer fans.

We know Reimer can play well, but we know where he'll fail too. He shouldn't be an option.

Getting a top five pick would be a pretty nice consolation prize. I think Bernier is the (slightly) better goalie. Each win he helps the team get means lower odds of getting a better pick.

To me Reimer just seems like the better option for the next year or so of the rebuild. He's (or at least seems to be) a good dressing room guy on a cheap contract.

Bernier wants 5 million a season - I don't think he's proved he's worth that long term.

When the team is ready to enter the playoffs they can just buy a decent goalie on the trade market just as the Wild have. I don't think either Bernier or Reimer need to be on the team in three years.

 

[crump]

Just out of curiosity, who was the last goalie that went through club elected arbitration, then bolted into free agency to become a top 10 goalie in the league? Or at least paid like Bernier wants to be paid and was a certified number one for his next team? Just want to know if it's happened.

Also, being only 30 positions for starting Goalie in the league, you would think every team would have an awesome goalie...I mean that's 30 people out of the worlds population. I think it speaks to how important the play of the team is in front of a goalie. Something I am sure Berniers camp was illustrating in this process.

I like Bernier, I think he could be an excellent goalie with a good defense in front of him. I also don't think you should pay for something that COULD be. He needs to show it, and unfortunately his fate is tied to what is in front of him.

 

[Stephen]

Getting a top five pick would be a pretty nice consolation prize. I think Bernier is the (slightly) better goalie. Each win he helps the team get means lower odds of getting a
better.

To me Reimer just seems like the better option for the next year or so of the rebuild. He's (or at least seems to be) a good dressing room guy on a cheap contract.

Bernier wants 5 million a season - I don't think he's proved he's worth that long term.

When the team is ready to enter the playoffs they can just buy a decent goalie on the trade market just as the Wild have. I don't think either Bernier or Reimer need to be on the team in three years.

If the intention is to have a worse starter just bring Lindback in and flush the ones we have out for assets.

 

[FlareKnight]

Getting a top five pick would be a pretty nice consolation prize. I think Bernier is the (slightly) better goalie. Each win he helps the team get means lower odds of getting a
better.

To me Reimer just seems like the better option for the next year or so of the rebuild. He's (or at least seems to be) a good dressing room guy on a cheap contract.

Bernier wants 5 million a season - I don't think he's proved he's worth that long term.

When the team is ready to enter the playoffs they can just buy a decent goalie on the trade market just as the Wild have. I don't think either Bernier or Reimer need to be on the team in three years.

That seems like a tactic asking for trouble though. Look at the teams that have had goaltending problems over the years, if you could simply go and buy a great goalie when you are ready to turn the corner then teams wouldn't have issues. Good goalies are the same as guys for any position, there are only so many and they aren't usually easy to get your hands on. Regardless of Bernier we should be focused on getting the goaltending position settled and not hoping we'll fix it later.

Can't be afraid to have good players around and think they'll ruin your draft.

Will make for an interesting season with the 1 year deal going on here. Whether Bernier has a good year, whether the Leafs can get him signed if he does, and what they do if he's not the long-term solution in net.

 

[Menzinger]

If the intention is to have a worse starter just bring Lindback in and flush the ones we have out for assets.

That would be just fine with me.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Bernier was only arguably top five two years ago, when he was 10th in the league in save percentage (min 20gp), and 5th among starters (min 41gp).

This season he was 32nd in save percentage (min 20gp), and 23rd in save percentage among #1 goalies min 41 gp). He had a negative goals saved above average, which by definition means he was below the league-wide save percentage. There were a number of backup goalies who were better than him.

It's crazy to consider him a top 5 goaltender just because of one good season, especially when it wasn't his most recent, and especially when this past season he was well below average. At best, you could say the last two seasons cancel out and he's average. So it's entirely appropriate that he should be payed the average league salary, i.e. around $3M.

So you're saying he's a #1 goalie. I can't really argue, those numbers make a good case.

This year we should find out if he's an above average, average, or below average #1 goalie.

 

[Derek Synak]

I've never been a Bernier or Reimer fan, to me they're both capable but very average NHL goalies. Leafs have shown they don't think Bernier is a top 10 goalie by the offer they gave and I agree with them.

If I had to choose, I'd take Reimer's fire and will over Bernier's ability, but I'm just a Fella who enjoys hockey.

 

[91Stammer*]

So you're saying he's a #1 goalie. I can't really argue, those numbers make a good case.

This year we should find out if he's an above average, average, or below average #1 goalie.

Lol so now we find out if a goalie is good or bad when he plays behind a worst team in the league?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Lol so now we find out if a goalie is good or bad when he plays behind a worst team in the league?

Problem?

 

[TMLegend]

Problem?

Well, considering we could possibly be one of the worst teams in the NHL next season it hardly seems appropriate to give Bernier a one year "show me" contract and expect the guy to play great. It seems like a case where he's being set up to fail.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Well, considering we could possibly be one of the worst teams in the NHL next season it hardly seems appropriate to give Bernier a one year "show me" contract and expect the guy to play great. It seems like a case where he's being set up to fail.

not necessarily so

if we're the leagues worst team (top five in drafting order) but Bernier plays solid but we've lost due to simply lack of goal support etc, then it's like "yeah team isn't great, but you stepped it up." in A-B-C

If we're the worst team and Bernier doesn't help the situation then it's like yeah circumstances weren't good but you weren't all hot either.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well, considering we could possibly be one of the worst teams in the NHL next season it hardly seems appropriate to give Bernier a one year "show me" contract and expect the guy to play great. It seems like a case where he's being set up to fail.

Just because a team is bad doesn't mean players can't play well - see Bernier two years ago as one example.

As far as what they expect from Bernier, I have no idea what's going on anymore.

 

[Pookie]

Goalie performance shouldn't be a priority right now.

Just need an average guy to stand in there for 3-4 years. Whoever is there is likely to have their confidence shattered. Will likely be looking for a goalie when they think they have turned the corner.

Bernier on a small contract has a lot of trade value. Hoping arbitrator sides in the Leafs favour.

 

[Paradoc]

Just because a team is bad doesn't mean players can't play well - see Bernier two years ago as one example.

As far as what they expect from Bernier, I have no idea what's going on anymore.

Agree, but when your team breaks franchise record for the wrong reasons then it's very hard, especially for a goalie to be good. I can't think of any goalie that played well on a trash team.