Player Discussion Torey Krug VI

[Gee Wally]

Channel 5 news tonight said they have started negotiations.
fwiw

 

[JRull86]

Channel 5 news tonight said they have started negotiations.
fwiw

Sadly I'd believe whoever on there over Joe Haggerty

 

[RustyBruins72]

Channel 5 news tonight said they have started negotiations.
fwiw

This doesn't really surprise me at all.

Hockey hasn't really started yet but it's getting talked about. Test the water and see what is going on in both camps. No harm really.

Won't be surprised if he signs either a 1 year or long term.

 

[wintersej]

Got bored between meetings (not really, I just didn't want to work) and decided to look at the Bruins PP over the last 3 seasons. More specifically I looked at 63/37/88 with and without Krug:

Setup​	SF/60​	GF/60​	xGF/60​	SCF/60​	HDCF/60​	HDGF/60​
w/ Krug	66.72​	11.92​	8.66​	64.83​	24.71​	5.67​
w/o Krug	53.14​	11.72​	8.91​	67.20​	28.13​	8.60​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

What it tells me is they generate less shots per 60 without Krug, but their goals for per 60 doesn't seem to take much of a hit. Their expected goals for is actually higher w/o Krug and the generate more scoring chances, more high danger chances and score more high danger goals.

Setup​	SF/60​	GF/60​	xGF/60​	SCF/60​	HDCF/60​	HDGF/60​
w/ Krug	66.72​	11.92​	8.66​	64.83​	24.71​	5.67​
w/ Grz	55.45​	11.29​	8.90​	65.72​	27.72​	8.21​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Now looking at Grz vs Krug with 63-37-48 on the PP over the last 3 years, it kind of falls in line with what's above. As you said its a small sample size. In this case the trio has played 412 minutes on the PP with Krug and 58 with Grz. In that small sample size though, they didn't see to lose any effectiveness per 60 playing Grz vs Krug and in some areas (again small sample size) were better with Grz.

I think its a tough call honestly. I love Krug's game and he's an elite OFD, but just looking statistically I thinks you could argue that the PP wouldn't take a huge hit if Krug were to walk. So for $7+ million is Krug worth the money when the numbers say the PP would be fine without him?

I worry about Gryz numbers if he played long enough to have the PP with him on it get properly scouted and broken down. With Krug running the show there seemed to be more varied looks than what the Gryz PP did. But I don’t know. That was in the before times. Not sure if my memory is right here.

 

[wintersej]

With a flat cap I’m not sure the suitors are going to be out there and think the Bruins get a steal on Krug.

If not...

Gryz/McAvoy
X/Carlo
X/Shattenkirk

With Chara and the kids fighting for the spots would be interesting.

 

[ON3M4N]

I worry about Gryz numbers if he played long enough to have the PP with him on it get properly scouted and broken down. With Krug running the show there seemed to be more varied looks than what the Gryz PP did. But I don’t know. That was in the before times. Not sure if my memory is right here.

On the flip side you could argue that Grz kept it simple while on the PP as he was a short term and didn't want to disrupt the flow of the PP. If he were the guy from day 1, im sure they'd have more looks

 

[finchster]

I worry about Gryz numbers if he played long enough to have the PP with him on it get properly scouted and broken down. With Krug running the show there seemed to be more varied looks than what the Gryz PP did. But I don’t know. That was in the before times. Not sure if my memory is right here.

I like Gryz, but has Gryz ran a power play in high level hockey? I am not sure that has ever been his game.

But to expect him to replicate the same success as Krug, one of the best guys in the game at that position, is really foolish. The fact that management would consider going with 5 forwards is all you need to know about their perceived believe in the offensive abilities of McAvoy and Gryz.

 

[wintersej]

I like Gryz, but has Gryz ran a power play in high level hockey? I am not sure that has ever been his game.

But to expect him to replicate the same success as Krug, one of the best guys in the game at that position, is really foolish. The fact that management would consider going with 5 forwards is all you need to know about their perceived believe in the offensive abilities of McAvoy and Gryz.

I think with McAvoy it’s about saving him for the hard defensive work rather than him not being able to do it. But yeah, it’s a fair point. I also wonder if it’s the right move regardless. If a forward can walk the blue line well and defend the occasional 2 on 1, I don’t even know what the downside is. Love having a coaching staff unafraid to think outside the box.

 

[BruinDust]

I don't think them keeping Krejci forces them to not re-sign Krug. he's entering the final year of his deal for 20-21 season.

They have the space to sign their RFAs, and Krug/Chara if they wanted to, and still have some left over.

I think expansion draft has more to do with it than anything else TBH, since I'd assume he'd get a modified NMC and be forced to be protected, thus almost guaranteeing them of losing Grzlecyk.

I don't think the expansion draft has anything to do with it whatsoever. The best protection any team can have against the expansion draft is having as deep a roster as possible. You only lose one player.

You sign Krug, you protect Krug/McAvoy/Carlo, say you lose Gryz, but then you keep Lauzon. So you still have 4 out of 5.

Let Krug walk, protect/Gryz/McAvoy/Carlo, but then you lose Lauzon, so your down to 3 out of 5.

 

[the negotiator]

I don't think the expansion draft has anything to do with it whatsoever. The best protection any team can have against the expansion draft is having as deep a roster as possible. You only lose one player.

You sign Krug, you protect Krug/McAvoy/Carlo, say you lose Gryz, but then you keep Lauzon. So you still have 4 out of 5.

Let Krug walk, protect/Gryz/McAvoy/Carlo, but then you lose Lauzon, so your down to 3 out of 5.

Simple and powerful reasoning here.....the expansion draft will cost the Bs a player- that is a given- this is not the only ( or even the main ) reason to sign Krug. It is another of the many reasons why he needs to be resigned

 

[tremha]

I like Krug and hope he remains a Bruin. That being said he is more of a specialist and not a 200' workhorse.

5 years 6 mill take it or leave it. hometown discount for sure but certainty and security provided and he gets to stay where he says he wants to be. Cap and market will be uncertain for a few years so no guarantees out there.

If not, sad but have to let him go and would suck to get nothing for him but salary caps dictate tough decisions.

 

[Smitty93]

I worry about Gryz numbers if he played long enough to have the PP with him on it get properly scouted and broken down. With Krug running the show there seemed to be more varied looks than what the Gryz PP did. But I don’t know. That was in the before times. Not sure if my memory is right here.

I'm not sure about the bolded, but that's mostly because I don't think the powerplay of the last few years has any kind of varied look. Every powerplay is run to either set up Pastrnak at the weak side dot or Bergeron at the bumper. They might get there in different ways occasionally, but those are the only two options they ever seem to want to set up. Oftentimes, it doesn't matter because they're so good, but you start to notice that on the rare occasion that the powerplay struggles, it's because teams are, smartly, focusing on taking away those two options, or at least one of them.

 

[wintersej]

I'm not sure about the bolded, but that's mostly because I don't think the powerplay of the last few years has any kind of varied look. Every powerplay is run to either set up Pastrnak at the weak side dot or Bergeron at the bumper. They might get there in different ways occasionally, but those are the only two options they ever seem to want to set up. Oftentimes, it doesn't matter because they're so good, but you start to notice that on the rare occasion that the powerplay struggles, it's because teams are, smartly, focusing on taking away those two options, or at least one of them.

Oh those are the two primary looks for sure. But, Marchand and Krug seem to move around a lot getting those options to open up. Sometimes its Marchand looking to make that quick pass to Bergeron or across the zone to Pasta. Sometimes its Krug. Gryz mostly just was at top of umbrella, Krug is much more comfortable rotating down to the half wall and finding new angles. All this is with asterisks that we have not watched these games in a long time so maybe my memory is off and it was a limited sample size so maybe Gryz just wasn't working off the whole playbook, yet.

 

[Shroud of Orrin]

Don had 273 points in 1115 games all with the B's sans 63 with Dallas in his final year. Don did a get good job getting Ray the puck. Don was small in stature for his time at 5'10" 184 lbs. For his 16 career years he was +112 total. Respectable. Robert Gordon had +124 in '70/'71 alone to help put that in perspective, not that its ever a fair comparison or a fully indicative stat, but still. I recall Sweeney as a loyal workhorse who would end up on the DL at least once a year.

Given all that, I cant help but think that Torey is the player Don always wished he could have been! Which puzzles me more why we're in this situation. You'd think he'd be Krug's #1 fan and would have already fixed this long before this point.

I think its foolish that people believe that this team is as good without him - it just isn't. It's just true and I don't care what analysis is thrown out there. Krug stands up for himself and his team mates. He's a warrior who's all in. These intangibles. Crucial.

Teams on the cusp don't let QB players like this walk - ever.

Figure it out man.

 

[ON3M4N]

Don had 273 points in 1115 games all with the B's sans 63 with Dallas in his final year. Don did a get good job getting Ray the puck. Don was small in stature for his time at 5'10" 184 lbs. For his 16 career years he was +112 total. Respectable. Robert Gordon had +124 in '70/'71 alone to help put that in perspective, not that its ever a fair comparison or a fully indicative stat, but still. I recall Sweeney as a loyal workhorse who would end up on the DL at least once a year.

Given all that, I cant help but think that Torey is the player Don always wished he could have been! Which puzzles me more why we're in this situation. You'd think he'd be Krug's #1 fan and would have already fixed this long before this point.

I think its foolish that people believe that this team is as good without him - it just isn't. It's just true and I don't care what analysis is thrown out there. Krug stands up for himself and his team mates. He's a warrior who's all in. These intangibles. Crucial.

Teams on the cusp don't let QB players like this walk - ever.

Figure it out man.

So basically your feelings > facts/stats

 

[Dr Hook]

It is also worth pointing out that Krug did not start out as an elite PP QB. He grew into the role. Yes he had skills and the right instincts, but it didn't happen overnight. Anyone the Bruins would replace him with, Mac or Gryz are those guys at moment, have skills and instincts to grow into the role too. Maybe neither could ever be as good as Krug in that job, but we don't know that. For me it has always been worth the risk of losing Krug rather than overpaying him in dollars and especially term. I believe in both Mac and Gryz as players and think either would do a fine job in the PP QB spot with some time and experience. Maybe it dips a little in the short-term, but for me this is made up by having a better defender in that spot- Gryz, Lauzon, Zboril, whoever replaces Krug they are all better defensively than Krug.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

So basically your feelings > facts/stats

The analytics are wrong if they suggest anything other than Krug makes the team better!

 

[Shroud of Orrin]

So basically your feelings > facts/stats

lol...I'm not up for a classic battle of heart and mind. My opinions on players are forged over many views over a long period of time and I develop a sense of who they are and their values. There's a place for science and gut in hockey and any sport for that matter. But in the fullness of time, with love for a particular sport, people do develop a sixth sense for it. Instinct. You can smell it. Consider me an amateur like the majority.

I stand by Krug as a guy who has earned everything. Dr. Hook above makes a very good point. I was not a believer when he made his debut. I initially thought he was going to get crushed on first viewings, but 40 points in his rookie year was still very impressive. But he just kept coming, improving his strength, escape-ability, outlets, shot and most importantly his consistency. He has delivered to the best of his ability. I love it when undrafted players reach these heights. Even we underrate him.

Its been over a week now since talks started according to the Grumpy old Moderator himself. Players are starting to get together. Could signing Krug fuel the upcoming and maybe last true run for this core group? I'm thinking so.

 

[wintersej]

lol...I'm not up for a classic battle of heart and mind. My opinions on players are forged over many views over a long period of time and I develop a sense of who they are and their values. There's a place for science and gut in hockey and any sport for that matter. But in the fullness of time, with love for a particular sport, people do develop a sixth sense for it. Instinct. You can smell it. Consider me an amateur like the majority.

I stand by Krug as a guy who has earned everything. Dr. Hook above makes a very good point. I was not a believer when he made his debut. I initially thought he was going to get crushed on first viewings, but 40 points in his rookie year was still very impressive. But he just kept coming, improving his strength, escape-ability, outlets, shot and most importantly his consistency. He has delivered to the best of his ability. I love it when undrafted players reach these heights. Even we underrate him.

Its been over a week now since talks started according to the Grumpy old Moderator himself. Players are starting to get together. Could signing Krug fuel the upcoming and maybe last true run for this core group? I'm thinking so.

Oh I like where your head is at. Announcing the new contract right before the playoffs start would be a fun boost... especially for Torey's leadership in the room and on the ice.

 

[TwineTickler]

Flat cap next two years, 82.5 in 2022-23... that means so long Torey... or it should.

 

[neelynugs]

Flat cap next two years, 82.5 in 2022-23... that means so long Torey... or it should.

imagine if they didn't get rid of backes when they did

 

[ON3M4N]

lol...I'm not up for a classic battle of heart and mind. My opinions on players are forged over many views over a long period of time and I develop a sense of who they are and their values. There's a place for science and gut in hockey and any sport for that matter. But in the fullness of time, with love for a particular sport, people do develop a sixth sense for it. Instinct. You can smell it. Consider me an amateur like the majority.

I stand by Krug as a guy who has earned everything. Dr. Hook above makes a very good point. I was not a believer when he made his debut. I initially thought he was going to get crushed on first viewings, but 40 points in his rookie year was still very impressive. But he just kept coming, improving his strength, escape-ability, outlets, shot and most importantly his consistency. He has delivered to the best of his ability. I love it when undrafted players reach these heights. Even we underrate him.

Its been over a week now since talks started according to the Grumpy old Moderator himself. Players are starting to get together. Could signing Krug fuel the upcoming and maybe last true run for this core group? I'm thinking so.

Like anything else I think there needs to be a balance of the two. A persons "sixth sense" can at times be overridden by what they want to see vs what is actually the case. Take the below 3 players (going to tag @GloryDaze4877 as I think he'll enjoy this one)

Player​	Pt/60​	CF%​	SF%​	GF%​	xGF%​	SCF%​	HDCF%​	HDGF%​
Player A​	1.7​	53.5​	52.9​	56.7​	53.8​	52.4​	54.9​	57.4​
Player B​	1.5​	51.2​	52.5​	61.4​	52.4​	51.6​	52.4​	68.0​
Player C​	1.6​	52.7​	53.9​	54.3​	53.5​	53.5​	53.6​	57.5​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This was over the last two season on the Bruins. One of these players was routinely criticized by fans because of what they "saw" watching games. Meanwhile the other two players, fans rave about when they watch them play. Oddly enough the numbers would indicate they are not far off from one another performance wise with some being stronger in some areas than others.

Care to guess the 3 players?

 

[neelynugs]

Like anything else I think there needs to be a balance of the two. A persons "sixth sense" can at times be overridden by what they want to see vs what is actually the case. Take the below 3 players (going to tag @GloryDaze4877 as I think he'll enjoy this one)

Player​	Pt/60​	CF%​	SF%​	GF%​	xGF%​	SCF%​	HDCF%​	HDGF%​
Player A​	1.7​	53.5​	52.9​	56.7​	53.8​	52.4​	54.9​	57.4​
Player B​	1.5​	51.2​	52.5​	61.4​	52.4​	51.6​	52.4​	68.0​
Player C​	1.6​	52.7​	53.9​	54.3​	53.5​	53.5​	53.6​	57.5​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This was over the last two season on the Bruins. One of these players was routinely criticized by fans because of what they "saw" watching games. Meanwhile the other two players, fans rave about when they watch them play. Oddly enough the numbers would indicate they are not far off from one another performance wise with some being stronger in some areas than others.

Care to guess the 3 players?

no idea who the other 2 guys will be, but 1 is obviously heinen based on reading between
the @GloryDaze4877 lines

 

[cat400]

Flat cap next two years, 82.5 in 2022-23... that means so long Torey... or it should.

The NY Post's, Larry Brooks, has an interesting analysis of the Cap ramifications.

https://nypost.com/2020/06/30/nhl-salary-cap-makeover-will-be-problematic/

 

[BruinDust]

The NY Post's, Larry Brooks, has an interesting analysis of the Cap ramifications.

https://nypost.com/2020/06/30/nhl-salary-cap-makeover-will-be-problematic/

The impact will be pretty much the same as the 2013 roll-back.

Stars and Superstars will still get paid.

The middle-class experienced players will take the hit and less jobs will be available for them as cheap vets on short-term deals and ELC players will take their places so teams can still afford to pay their stars.