Confirmed Trade: [TOR/OTT] Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Brown, and M. Carcone for Cody Ceci, B. Harpur, A. Luchuk, 2020 3rd

[mashedpotato]

He's terrible. Toronto would have kept him if he was any good.

 

[ottomaddox]

This trade didn't happen in a vacuum. TOR are actually trying to win a Stanley Cup. People say "well if Ceci sucks then TOR won't re-sign him". Great. Back to the drawing board?

I think people want this trade to look shiny bright for TOR, but they are kidding themselves. Some TOR media people have pencilled Ceci in the top 4, so therefore OTT was "fleeced"? If all goes well with Ceci and he turns things around he'll only be a bottom 6 D IMHO. So TOR trades away 2 NHLers for a bottom 6 D (@4.5 million)?

What?

 

[4thline]

If all goes well with Ceci and he turns things around he'll only be a bottom 6 D IMHO. So TOR trades away 2 NHLers for a bottom 6 D (@4.5 million)?

What?

All D are bottom 6 D fella.

Matthews is a flop of 1st OA, only a bottom 12 forward.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

This trade didn't happen in a vacuum. TOR are actually trying to win a Stanley Cup. People say "well if Ceci sucks then TOR won't re-sign him". Great. Back to the drawing board?

I think people want this trade to look shiny bright for TOR, but they are kidding themselves. Some TOR media people have pencilled Ceci in the top 4, so therefore OTT was "fleeced"? If all goes well with Ceci and he turns things around he'll only be a bottom 6 D IMHO. So TOR trades away 2 NHLers for a bottom 6 D (@4.5 million)?

What?

Well Brown would have been traded to someone else so it's really just 1 "NHLer" for a bottom pairing D. If Zaitsev is so much better than Ceci then your point works, but is he really?

 

[Patmac40]

No. I disagree. Zaitsev had a good playoff and only 1 below-par season. His first season with TOR was not long ago and had many people excited. He is more of a sure thing than Ceci. I'm sorry but if you're a Leafs fan you must only be going on fickle hockey forum criticism.

In his two years other than his rookie year he has been hemmed in his zone most of the time thanks to a general inability to move the puck out. He's usually solid at neutralizing certain plays and his off-puck defending is decent enough but the guy hasn't been able to break out in the last couple years. All the underlying statistics show this as well. He does get high d-zone deployment but he hasn't shown much offense since his rookie year to warrant much offensive time and is one of the highest on the team in turnovers even though he's not the one handling the puck all that often.

The bottom line is Zaitsev has taken steps back since his first year and is slated to get $4.5 million over the next 5 years during a time that the Leafs are looking to offload overpaid depth players in order to have more flexibility this year and in the future. This move helps achieve this goal and the team will be better for it going forward even if Zaitsev is better than Ceci because Ceci won't be here beyond this year and the Leafs will be able to use the cap space for better things.

 

[ottomaddox]

All D are bottom 6 D fella.

Matthews is a flop of 1st OA, only a bottom 12 forward.

No.

 

[ottomaddox]

In his two years other than his rookie year he has been hemmed in his zone most of the time thanks to a general inability to move the puck out. He's usually solid at neutralizing certain plays and his off-puck defending is decent enough but the guy hasn't been able to break out in the last couple years. All the underlying statistics show this as well. He does get high d-zone deployment but he hasn't shown much offense since his rookie year to warrant much offensive time and is one of the highest on the team in turnovers even though he's not the one handling the puck all that often.

The bottom line is Zaitsev has taken steps back since his first year and is slated to get $4.5 million over the next 5 years during a time that the Leafs are looking to offload overpaid depth players in order to have more flexibility this year and in the future. This move helps achieve this goal and the team will be better for it going forward even if Zaitsev is better than Ceci because Ceci won't be here beyond this year and the Leafs will be able to use the cap space for better things.

I see your point, but you are still negating his rookie season and playoff.

Some of your critiçism sounds a lot like Gardiner's career. If Gardiner had the Zaitsev contract and we traded him for Ceci fans would still claim that TOR fleeced OTT.

 

[joe dirte]

How can Toronto have more risk when the only way this deal can be good for Ottawa is IF Zaitsev can get back to his rookie season form. That's literally a textbook definition of risk.

You're banking on something that isn't certain, and if that thing doesn't happen you're screwed.

Worst case scenario for the Leafs is that Ceci sucks and they don't re-sign him. Worst case for the Sens is Zaitsev sucks and they're stuck with him for 5 years.

Zaitsev is a decent, safe, middle pairing dman either way. You're not gonna get that for much less than his contract in free agency. If he regains his rookie form hed probably be worth a fair bit more. Free agency is insane, a 35 to 40 point dman that play a stay at home game are expensive. Easily over 5 mil.

He just didnt work with the leafs cap.

 

[joe dirte]

All D are bottom 6 D fella.

Matthews is a flop of 1st OA, only a bottom 12 forward.

Well mostvteams have 13 forwards on roster and 7 d so youre saying matthews is not worthy of being the best player on a team.

 

[joe dirte]

He's terrible. Toronto would have kept him if he was any good.

They have no soace to keep him. Hes no saviour but he isnt terrible either.

 

[4thline]

No.

Do the math, fingers should be enough.

"Bottom 6 D" is a meaningless non-term.

 

[ottomaddox]

Do the math, fingers should be enough.

"Bottom 6 D" is a meaningless non-term.

What does meaning and terminology have to do with Math?

Edit - if you want me to come up with a better description then I can.

How about a defenseman who plays limited minutes, and has limited responsibilities. Another reality of this defenseman is that he could be relegated to the press box if their game falls off, or someone in the American League can show a better ability with limited minutes.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Zaitsev is a decent, safe, middle pairing dman either way. You're not gonna get that for much less than his contract in free agency. If he regains his rookie form hed probably be worth a fair bit more. Free agency is insane, a 35 to 40 point dman that play a stay at home game are expensive. Easily over 5 mil.

He just didnt work with the leafs cap.

Except for two straight seasons Zaitsev has not been a 35 to 40 pt dman that plays a stay at home game. So sure, if he does that it's a great deal for the Sens. Even in his first season he was not a stay at home dman.

 

[Advanced stats]

Did OTT fans ever question whether Ceci and Harpur are NHLers?

I am certain that TOR fans never questioned whether Brown and Zaitsev were NHLers. They sourness comes from how much they get paid.

1. Zaitsev had to be traded. Because he demanded it, and because his contract is shit.
2. Because of his contract, he was never going to bring back a good return. Considering that the return was great.
3. Connor Brown was expendable. Toronto's winger depth doesn't miss a beat, and he was expensive for a 4th liner.
4. Cody Ceci is a reclamation project. He could be poor, but we have a great top 3 to help shelter him. He was once herelded as having top-2 potential. Maybe he finds his way in Toronto on a much much better team.
5. Harpur is what he is. A 6/7 who can pk a bit. That's all we need him to be.

This is a good deal for both sides, although ill say I think Toronto got off easy considering Zaitsev's contract. This was first and foremost about freeing cap space for Toronto(long-term). That alone makes it a win.

 

[4thline]

What does meaning and terminology have to do with Math?

Just think it through. What does bottom 6 tell you about where someone fits a 6 person unit?

 

[ottomaddox]

1. Zaitsev had to be traded. Because he demanded it, and because his contract is ****.
2. Because of his contract, he was never going to bring back a good return. Considering that the return was great.
3. Connor Brown was expendable. Toronto's winger depth doesn't miss a beat, and he was expensive for a 4th liner.
4. Cody Ceci is a reclamation project. He could be poor, but we have a great top 3 to help shelter him. He was once herelded as having top-2 potential. Maybe he finds his way in Toronto on a much much better team.
5. Harpur is what he is. A 6/7 who can pk a bit. That's all we need him to be.

This is a good deal for both sides, although ill say I think Toronto got off easy considering Zaitsev's contract. This was first and foremost about freeing cap space for Toronto(long-term). That alone makes it a win.

I appreciate your opinion, but would you say that TOR's win is a small margin win? It certainly is different than a "fleecing" wouldn't you agree?

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Did OTT fans ever question whether Ceci and Harpur are NHLers?

I am certain that TOR fans never questioned whether Brown and Zaitsev were NHLers. They sourness comes from how much they get paid.

Harper for sure is not an NHLer and almost certainly never will be.

Ceci has a good skill set but lacks hockey IQ. Often he plays like his brain isn’t totally there, like he has a lot of other stuff on his mind. He is going through some personal stuff off the ice with a big lawsuit so I wonder what effect that has had on him.

 

[Patmac40]

I see your point, but you are still negating his rookie season and playoff.

Some of your critiçism sounds a lot like Gardiner's career. If Gardiner had the Zaitsev contract and we traded him for Ceci fans would still claim that TOR fleeced OTT.

Gardiner was actually the one who had the least amount of failed exits per 60 on the Leafs last year. The only dman who had more failed exits per 60 than Zaitsev was Ozhiganov. (Based on the data that I could find)

Gardiner has his warts but he can actually move the puck with a lot of success and I wouldn't mind having him back if there was room but there just isn't with the cap.

If this trade was made and Gardiner had Zaitsev's contract there still would be people happy because people have a hate on for Gardiner but it would be way worse. Gardiner is a vastly superior player than Zaitsev because he can actually play with the puck, move the puck, and turn it over at a lower rate than Zaitsev. The underlying numbers show that Gardiner has a positive impact on his team's ability to out-chance the other team which is something that Zaitsev can't say.

 

[Dirty Dog]

What does meaning and terminology have to do with Math?

Edit - if you want me to come up with a better description then I can.

How about a defenseman who plays limited minutes, and has limited responsibilities. Another reality of this defenseman is that he could be relegated to the press box if their game falls off, or someone in the American League can show a better ability with limited minutes.

You are meaning to say bottom-pairing defenseman or something like that. Bottom 6 doesn’t make sense because there are only 6 of them. They are all bottom or top 6

 

[Advanced stats]

I appreciate your opinion, but would you say that TOR's win is a small margin win? It certainly is different than a "fleecing" wouldn't you agree?

I don't think I ever used the word fleecing, but at the very least I'd say it's a small win. In the most likely of scenarios, Harpur walks, Ceci walks and Toronto gains 6.5 million to be able to resign Dermott, Rielly, and muzzin or Barrie. That to me is a big win.

You have to understand that Zaitsev's contract was a massive anchor. Terrible. (thanks Lou). Him being willing to move, finding a willing trade partner and not having to give up anything of value to move him is a great trade. Add in the fact that Ceci is serviceable in a 4/5 role, we got a 3rd, and prospect? Seems like a deal that Toronto does 10 times out of 10.

Edit: I should clarify and say that in a vacuum, Ottawa probably got the more talented group of players. Considering the pinch Toronto was in and the contracts of the players though, Toronto comes out further ahead than Ottawa. In theory Dourin had Dubas over a barrel and should have demanded more imo.

 

[joe dirte]

Except for two straight seasons Zaitsev has not been a 35 to 40 pt dman that plays a stay at home game. So sure, if he does that it's a great deal for the Sens. Even in his first season he was not a stay at home dman.

Crazy, it's almost like the part you bolded came right after that sentence where I say "if he regained his rookie form he'd be worth more"...... Do you think it might be related? I responded to a poster that said he'd have to regain his form just to be worth it. I'm pointing out that if he regained his rookie form, he'd be worth more than his contract.

 

[andora]

In his two years other than his rookie year he has been hemmed in his zone most of the time thanks to a general inability to move the puck out. He's usually solid at neutralizing certain plays and his off-puck defending is decent enough but the guy hasn't been able to break out in the last couple years. All the underlying statistics show this as well. He does get high d-zone deployment but he hasn't shown much offense since his rookie year to warrant much offensive time and is one of the highest on the team in turnovers even though he's not the one handling the puck all that often.

The bottom line is Zaitsev has taken steps back since his first year and is slated to get $4.5 million over the next 5 years during a time that the Leafs are looking to offload overpaid depth players in order to have more flexibility this year and in the future. This move helps achieve this goal and the team will be better for it going forward even if Zaitsev is better than Ceci because Ceci won't be here beyond this year and the Leafs will be able to use the cap space for better things.

i should preface this by saying i'm not being combative - what underlying statistics can we use to show the effectiveness of wingers helping exit the zone. it 'seems' to me last year toronto's wingers were very inconsistent at being effective high relay options getting the puck out outside of marner/hyman.... his rookie year he had responsible guys like JVR, Komarov, Martin willing to stay and help.. hell even Ben Smith and Soshnikov made the effort to get our first then move up.. it was a big shift to the kids.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Crazy, it's almost like the part you bolded came right after that sentence where I say "if he regained his rookie form he'd be worth more"...... Do you think it might be related? I responded to a poster that said he'd have to regain his form just to be worth it. I'm pointing out that if he regained his rookie form, he'd be worth more than his contract.

And the "poster" you responded to was talking about it not being certain that Zaitsev regains his rookie form. I was adding more context to their statement to say that he has to take a big step.

 

[joe dirte]

And the "poster" you responded to was talking about it not being too likely that Zaitsev regains his rookie form. I was adding more context to their statement.

Then respond to his statement, not mine.

As I said, in response to "he'd have to regain his rookie form just to be worth his contract", I say "he'd be worth more than $4.5M if he regained his rookie form".

As it stands, I don't think it's a overly bad contract. I doubt he suddenly finds a great game, but I also think he'll be fine in Ottawa. Not a big asset, but not some huge liability either.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Then respond to his statement, not mine.

As I said, in response to "he'd have to regain his rookie form just to be worth his contract", I say "he'd be worth more than $4.5M if he regained his rookie form".

As it stands, I don't think it's a overly bad contract. I doubt he suddenly finds a great game, but I also think he'll be fine in Ottawa. Not a big asset, but not some huge liability either.

Except you also said Zaitsev is a safe, middle pairing dman which is absolutely not true based on the last two seasons.