Confirmed Trade: [TOR/OTT] Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Brown, and M. Carcone for Cody Ceci, B. Harpur, A. Luchuk, 2020 3rd

[andora]

My only argument here is he does this at a much lower rate than the rest of his defensive teammates while they still have the same wingers. Quite a few of the defensemen on the roster were solid at getting out in a controlled manner but Zaitsev was not. Based on the data I have, here are the controlled exits (pass or carry) and fails from the Leafs d last year:

Rielly has a controlled exit 37% of the time and fails 14.5% of the time
Gardiner has a controlled exit 33% of the time and fails 14% of the time
Dermott has a controlled exit 42% of the time and fails 15% of the time
Hainsey has a controlled exit 26% of the time and fails 24% of the time
Zaitsev has a controlled exit 19% of the time and fails 24% of the time

I don't have the data with Muzzin in Toronto but if you're failing more often than you have controlled exits, there's likely an issue with that particular player. He doesn't fit the long pass breakout and maybe they'll run more of a 5-man breakout in Ottawa which will help with this but it's obvious that he's pretty far behind the curve compared to his teammates in this respect.

Edit: If someone has a zone exit/entry data resource for last year's data that they could point me to or send to me that would be greatly appreciated. This is a tough one to find a large data sample from last year based on what I'm finding.

interesting, so this is for 18/19?

i would be curious to see last years, and his rookie year. one thing i believe he would prefer to pass out than rush out. i would be curious to see numbers on pass exits versus rush exits, rather then just grouping them together, and then again his rookie year and last year and 18/19..

i don't think this is necessarily a blanket -something wrong with the player- but could be is the player in an effective system for his player type. believe me, i'm not defending him the normal cliched way. i was optimistic after his rookie year like most, i was shocked at the contract (term).. and the last two years he was a fingers crossed guy to the fans, always 'hoping' while realistically going 'get it out'

 

[Patmac40]

interesting, so this is for 18/19?

i would be curious to see last years, and his rookie year. one thing i believe he would prefer to pass out than rush out. i would be curious to see numbers on pass exits versus rush exits, rather then just grouping them together, and then again his rookie year and last year and 18/19..

i don't think this is necessarily a blanket -something wrong with the player- but could be is the player in an effective system for his player type. believe me, i'm not defending him the normal cliched way. i was optimistic after his rookie year like most, i was shocked at the contract (term).. and the last two years he was a fingers crossed guy to the fans, always 'hoping' while realistically going 'get it out'

I can't find the raw data from the last few years in total but I was able to get a comparative tool to show it a little bit. It doesn't note the zone exit failures unfortunately but hopefully it helps.

Tableau Public

I think Zaitsev can be serviceable in the right system but I don't think the roster composition of this team, the style of game they would like to play, nor the cap hit and term match Zaitsev with the Leafs all that well. Like I said in my previous post, he will likely do better if Ottawa runs more of a 5-man breakout rather than relying on the D to move the puck up to the guys breaking the zone. The bottom line is Zaitsev doesn't move the puck up in the current Leafs system with any real success and the Leafs need guys that can do that on all defensive pairings.

 

[X66]

hahaha I remember when Zaitsev was so gud

Around the same time that Puljujarvi was.

 

[FerrisRox]

Larry Murphy was villified by all too, shortly before going on to be a top dman on a cup winning team.

Niklas Lidstrom says hello (through uproarious laughter.)

 

[X66]

Niklas Lidstrom says hello (through uproarious laughter.)

He didn’t say THE top defenceman.

 

[X66]

Also even though I think this was a slam dunk awesome move for the Leafs, I do think Carcone becomes an NHL player.

 

[sd1976]

Oh man. Brown's game fell off dramatically overnight. Yesterday, he was a solid young player that added value to any trade. Today he's a cap dump with negative value... Not even worth the 3rd in this deal.

Reading comprehension maybe? In no way shape or form did it state that Brown was a cap dump with negative value.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Gardiner was villified by a (vocal) minority of Leaf fans. Zaitsev was villified by all Leaf fans. Gardiner (when not injured) is so much better than Zaitsev

Zaitsev wasn't vilified by me. I think he is a good player.

 

[PromisedLand]

Am a Leafs fan and I think Zaitsev was misused by Babcock; IMO he is a decent D-man; and if DJ Smith doesn't run the same stupid stretch pass system with the Sens I think Zaitsev will excel

 

[FerrisRox]

Am a Leafs fan and I think Zaitsev was misused by Babcock; IMO he is a decent D-man; and if DJ Smith doesn't run the same stupid stretch pass system with the Sens I think Zaitsev will excel

I don't think anyone would disagree that he's a decent D-man, the knock on him was always that he was paid a bit too much and his contract was way too long.

Zaitsev making $3.5 million on a three year deal would have been a lot more palatable.

 

[MMC]

Thread is over the limit. If anyone feels like there’s more to be discussed, feel free to open up a Part 2.