I think the analytics case against Martin is a result of looking at the microest of the micro and macroest of the macro. "But 3% of the cap *is* something", even though there are terrible deals on this team that have to expire and most of the top end talent is on ELC or good contracts with bought-out RFA years, and "he's going to handcuff us in three years", even though the cap should rise and there are dozens of examples of worse/more useless players owed Martin's money being traded.
Every move has risk. Even drafting Matthews #1. But there's a difference between what we did, which was jaywalking during the daytime with minimal traffic, and throwing a blindfold on and doing the same. Edmonton's wearing the blindfold. Montreal's wearing the blindfold. We're just waiting for a gap and crossing the street.
The way I see it, we wanted the organization/ownership to clean house-- they did. We wanted them to finally commit to bottoming out and not intend to make the playoffs for a couple years as we acquire talent-- they did, to great financial penalty. We wanted top to bottom structure, and they went out and got the most revered and coveted people in hockey. We wanted them to show the ability to use their reach and finances to gain advantage outside of the cap, by beefing up their staff, LTIR, etc-- they did this too! We wanted culture change, realizing Phaneuf and Kessel were a part of this--- the returns weren't great, but this goal was ultimately realized and now we're onto a new era. They made smart signings and were able to move them at the deadline, allowing us to effectively tank and acquire assets at the same time without making it obvious-- DONE. Now we have a top 3 farm system, interest from free agents, a boatload of space next year, and few expectations. This team has accomplished everything the fans have wanted them to do for years in a matter of months!
Now, correct me if I'm wrong... the next things fan want is a slight jump forward, maybe to 25th overall, adding a couple NHL-proven players, as they continue to let their larger contracts (most of whom aren't playing) expire, and hope for improvement from their youngsters and steady play from the vets. On what planet is this scenario not a possibility of occurring now, and possibly helped by these signings?
The only thing to do is wait and see, because not everything is done in a vacuum.