Confirmed with Link: [TOR] Matt Martin - 4 Years // 2.5M AAV

[FazeLeaf*]

I still don't get this and I can't like it. If this is just about hits and shot suppression numbers why not bring Clune on full time? His shot suppression has always been as good or better than Martin's and you could have him for way less than 2.5.

Clune sucks ass. Dont get why you would want him instead of Martin. Hes like '5 shorter and is less effective and a liability in the defensive zone.

 

[IBeL34f]

I think the analytics case against Martin is a result of looking at the microest of the micro and macroest of the macro. "But 3% of the cap *is* something", even though there are terrible deals on this team that have to expire and most of the top end talent is on ELC or good contracts with bought-out RFA years, and "he's going to handcuff us in three years", even though the cap should rise and there are dozens of examples of worse/more useless players owed Martin's money being traded.

Every move has risk. Even drafting Matthews #1. But there's a difference between what we did, which was jaywalking during the daytime with minimal traffic, and throwing a blindfold on and doing the same. Edmonton's wearing the blindfold. Montreal's wearing the blindfold. We're just waiting for a gap and crossing the street.

The way I see it, we wanted the organization/ownership to clean house-- they did. We wanted them to finally commit to bottoming out and not intend to make the playoffs for a couple years as we acquire talent-- they did, to great financial penalty. We wanted top to bottom structure, and they went out and got the most revered and coveted people in hockey. We wanted them to show the ability to use their reach and finances to gain advantage outside of the cap, by beefing up their staff, LTIR, etc-- they did this too! We wanted culture change, realizing Phaneuf and Kessel were a part of this--- the returns weren't great, but this goal was ultimately realized and now we're onto a new era. They made smart signings and were able to move them at the deadline, allowing us to effectively tank and acquire assets at the same time without making it obvious-- DONE. Now we have a top 3 farm system, interest from free agents, a boatload of space next year, and few expectations. This team has accomplished everything the fans have wanted them to do for years in a matter of months!

Now, correct me if I'm wrong... the next things fan want is a slight jump forward, maybe to 25th overall, adding a couple NHL-proven players, as they continue to let their larger contracts (most of whom aren't playing) expire, and hope for improvement from their youngsters and steady play from the vets. On what planet is this scenario not a possibility of occurring now, and possibly helped by these signings?

The only thing to do is wait and see, because not everything is done in a vacuum.

Excellent post.

Welcome to the Boards, Butthead

 

[Daisy Jane]

I think the analytics case against Martin is a result of looking at the microest of the micro and macroest of the macro. "But 3% of the cap *is* something", even though there are terrible deals on this team that have to expire and most of the top end talent is on ELC or good contracts with bought-out RFA years, and "he's going to handcuff us in three years", even though the cap should rise and there are dozens of examples of worse/more useless players owed Martin's money being traded.

Every move has risk. Even drafting Matthews #1. But there's a difference between what we did, which was jaywalking during the daytime with minimal traffic, and throwing a blindfold on and doing the same. Edmonton's wearing the blindfold. Montreal's wearing the blindfold. We're just waiting for a gap and crossing the street.

The way I see it, we wanted the organization/ownership to clean house-- they did. We wanted them to finally commit to bottoming out and not intend to make the playoffs for a couple years as we acquire talent-- they did, to great financial penalty. We wanted top to bottom structure, and they went out and got the most revered and coveted people in hockey. We wanted them to show the ability to use their reach and finances to gain advantage outside of the cap, by beefing up their staff, LTIR, etc-- they did this too! We wanted culture change, realizing Phaneuf and Kessel were a part of this--- the returns weren't great, but this goal was ultimately realized and now we're onto a new era. They made smart signings and were able to move them at the deadline, allowing us to effectively tank and acquire assets at the same time without making it obvious-- DONE. Now we have a top 3 farm system, interest from free agents, a boatload of space next year, and few expectations. This team has accomplished everything the fans have wanted them to do for years in a matter of months!

Now, correct me if I'm wrong... the next things fan want is a slight jump forward, maybe to 25th overall, adding a couple NHL-proven players, as they continue to let their larger contracts (most of whom aren't playing) expire, and hope for improvement from their youngsters and steady play from the vets. On what planet is this scenario not a possibility of occurring now, and possibly helped by these signings?

The only thing to do is wait and see, because not everything is done in a vacuum.

oho i Like you. great post and welcome.

 

[pgk]

Clune 2015 v Martin 2016.
http://public.tableau.com/shared/P94B9XW35?:display_count=yes
He has better shot suppression (pick whatever year you want). Neither of them affect the game very much from an offensive standpoint so what is this really about? Why give a guy like Martin term and money for being a wash at production. We have guys who can play his role. This is the first real iffy move I've seen Shanny & Co. make. It's not a deal breaker by any means but it's awfully smelly now and it's going to be a real stinker in two years.

 

[Gallagbi]

Clune 2015 v Martin 2016.
http://public.tableau.com/shared/P94B9XW35?:display_count=yes
He has better shot suppression (pick whatever year you want). Neither of them affect the game very much from an offensive standpoint so what is this really about? Why give a guy like Martin term and money for being a wash at production. We have guys who can play his role. This is the first real iffy move I've seen Shanny & Co. make. It's not a deal breaker by any means but it's awfully smelly now and it's going to be a real stinker in two years.

How many NHL games did Clune play in 2015?

 

[ACC1224]

Clune 2015 v Martin 2016.
http://public.tableau.com/shared/P94B9XW35?:display_count=yes
He has better shot suppression (pick whatever year you want). Neither of them affect the game very much from an offensive standpoint so what is this really about? Why give a guy like Martin term and money for being a wash at production. We have guys who can play his role. This is the first real iffy move I've seen Shanny & Co. make. It's not a deal breaker by any means but it's awfully smelly now and it's going to be a real stinker in two years.

Clune vs Martin

One is an NHL Player, the other is Clune.

 

[IBeL34f]

The Leafs signed Clune as well. To an AHL contract. That should tell you pretty much all you need to know.

Also, it's getting a little tired seeing people claim we have anything in the system that can do anything close to resembling what Martin does. Not that he's a God or anything, he is, in fact, a 4th-liner, but he's very arguably one of the best at his position, with hard-earned leadership qualities and experience at the NHL level, already capable of putting up 15-20 points a season, while racking up more hits than anyone else League-wide, and only recently entered his prime years as a hockey player. No one in our system scratches the surface of what Martin brings. And that's why we signed him.

 

[shutupbeavis]

The Leafs signed Clune as well. To an AHL contract. That should tell you pretty much all you need to know.

Also, it's getting a little tired seeing people claim we have anything in the system that can do anything close to resembling what Martin does. Not that he's a God or anything, he is, in fact, a 4th-liner, but he's very arguably one of the best at his position, with hard-earned leadership qualities and experience at the NHL level, already capable of putting up 15-20 points a season, while racking up more hits than anyone else League-wide, and only recently entered his prime years as a hockey player. No one in our system scratches the surface of what Martin brings. And that's why we signed him.

Another reason we signed him... if there's an issue that requires a little yapping from our leadership on the ice, it helps to be able to trot someone out there who the officials and linesmen are familiar with and acknowledge as a clean player. Notoriety is good, in this case.

 

[The Iceman]

you may be correct. But if you add Polak and Martins salaries, you are, what at 4.5 mil next year? I would rather sweeten the deal with Demers and pay him 5.5, WAAAYYY better value.
And the term? I know Polak is one year, but Martin is on a 4 year deal.
I just don't believe we got value with these signings.
And to quote you, Demers went to a team that is on a better track than we are. With signings like that, yes.

UFA signings are not about value. We got 2 roster players at a low annual cap hit.
One we will trade for an asset at the trade deadline. The other will be a great team mate for our young kids for a few years that we all enjoy watching.
Love It!!!

 

[pgk]

How many NHL games did Clune play in 2015?

Feel free to switch to the career metric. Same result.

 

[Billerdzzz]

Clune 2015 v Martin 2016.
http://public.tableau.com/shared/P94B9XW35?:display_count=yes
He has better shot suppression (pick whatever year you want). Neither of them affect the game very much from an offensive standpoint so what is this really about? Why give a guy like Martin term and money for being a wash at production. We have guys who can play his role. This is the first real iffy move I've seen Shanny & Co. make. It's not a deal breaker by any means but it's awfully smelly now and it's going to be a real stinker in two years.

I didn't exactly love the signing. As far as I know though, Martin wasn't give an NTC, so he could easily be bought out, if he doesn't succeed in the role he's been given.

Iffy? Maybe a little. I would have been more concerned had Lou overpaid and gave long term contracts to middle of the pack guys, in their late 20's to mid 30's.As much as I like Lucic, Okposo, Backes, I don't think this would be the appropriate time to be going after guys like them. And at this point and time, signing a FA in his late 20's or early 30's, for Toronto, would be detrimental to the team, in the long run.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Wonder if he may get picked up in the expansion draft? A higher cap hit for a useful 4th line player could be a draw for Las Vegas looking to get to the cap floor. I'd be very shocked if the Leafs protected him above other players.

 

[Billerdzzz]

Wonder if he may get picked up in the expansion draft? A higher cap hit for a useful 4th line player could be a draw for Las Vegas looking to get to the cap floor. I'd be very shocked if the Leafs protected him above other players.

My guess is the Leafs won't protect Martin, so the possibility of Vegas signing him is a possibility. Unless of course, Lou, Shanny and Co. are so impressed with Martin's physical play and whatever else he brings to the table, they end up protecting him from being picked up by the new expansion team.

 

[egd27]

Feel free to switch to the career metric. Same result.

I felt free to compare 2016 for both, but lo and behold, there were no numbers at all for Clune.

I'm not great with the fancy stats, how should I interpret that?

 

[thewave]

I didn't exactly love the signing. As far as I know though, Martin wasn't give an NTC, so he could easily be bought out, if he doesn't succeed in the role he's been given.

Iffy? Maybe a little. I would have been more concerned had Lou overpaid and gave long term contracts to middle of the pack guys, in their late 20's to mid 30's.As much as I like Lucic, Okposo, Backes, I don't think this would be the appropriate time to be going after guys like them. And at this point and time, signing a FA in his late 20's or early 30's, for Toronto, would be detrimental to the team, in the long run.

Okposo IMO was a reasonably good signing. We essentially have to make the same decision on JVR who is not quite as good. I imagine JVR will be asking 6m+ as well and he isn't worth it. Surprised we didn't move JVR.

 

[Antropovsky]

I think a big reason the team likes clune is because he stands up for the young players and he's a born again health freak. Brown has a picture of him on Twitter, where clune is cooking something in the team lounge, probably for some teammates. Most likely it was a very healthy food.

In this case clune is a great role model for the young players/fitness wise. I don't know how much of one he is as a person however... Considering he is buddies with Avery.

 

[pgk]

I felt free to compare 2016 for both, but lo and behold, there were no numbers at all for Clune.

I'm not great with the fancy stats, how should I interpret that?

lol. You see that I'm right and redirect the discussion (again). The vast majority of posters are justifying this signing because Martin has good shot suppression numbers. Clune's are better. 19GP for 15/16 Leafs, can only assume the minimum required for analysis is 20? No Marlies advanced stats available, but he was a +20 (and .5ppg) which would generally indicate that he's not defensively weak. He's better than people want to give him credit for. It's pretty hard to justify Martin eating up a roster spot at this kind of money and term (with buyout protection!). It's not going to kill us, but it's not going to help us.

 

[Nithoniniel]

lol. You see that I'm right and redirect the discussion (again). The vast majority of posters are justifying this signing because Martin has good shot suppression numbers. Clune's are better. 19GP for 15/16 Leafs, can only assume the minimum required for analysis is 20? No Marlies advanced stats available, but he was a +20 (and .5ppg) which would generally indicate that he's not defensively weak. He's better than people want to give him credit for. It's pretty hard to justify Martin eating up a roster spot at this kind of money and term (with buyout protection!). It's not going to kill us, but it's not going to help us.

Clune has great shot suppression stats when you look over the last five years as well. In that sense, he's absolutely an alternative to Martin.

Martin wasn't hired because of one aspect though, and Clune doesn't have half his physicality for example.

Furthermore, it's obvious they have another particular role in mind for Clune and that is as a mentor for upcoming prospects with the Marlies. He's got tons of credit for that role, so it makes sense to keep him there.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

Clune has great shot suppression stats when you look over the last five years as well. In that sense, he's absolutely an alternative to Martin.

Martin wasn't hired because of one aspect though, and Clune doesn't have half his physicality for example.

Furthermore, it's obvious they have another particular role in mind for Clune and that is as a mentor for upcoming prospects with the Marlies. He's got tons of credit for that role, so it makes sense to keep him there.

I am not a fan of the Martin signing, but I think he'd do fine if on Matthews pair. The idea is to utilise his physicality and suppression numbers to complement a possession beast in Matthews.

Personally, I think it's more important for Matthews to someone like Martin on his line than even Marner. Seeing that it's possible for the rookies to be on separate lines, Lupul or Michalek as the third guy can work as a short-term measure.

i.e

JVR - Bozak - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Marner
Martin - Matthews - Michalek

 

[klmdg]

Marc Bergevin, a renowned connoisseur of cheap 4th line grinders, wouldn't even offer Clune a 1 year, minimum salary NHL contract.

Yet, some people here think Clune is close to a UFA who was heavily courted and got 10m over 4 years.

 

[Dreakmur]

I am not a fan of the Martin signing, but I think he'd do fine if on Matthews pair. The idea is to utilise his physicality and suppression numbers to complement a possession beast in Matthews.

Can we please stop using shot suppression metrics as if they measure defensive play?

I'm all for developing new and better ways to analyze the game, but this new shot supression metric needs a lot of work before it tells you anyhing important.

In fact, unless I am totally misunderstanding how this metric is calculated, a "good" result in this metric likely just means you play sheltered minutes.... Meaning you are definitely not good defensively.

 

[UllmansTiger]

41 pages for Martin, awesome.

He's a player I wanted for the Leafs, physicality was a bit of a sore spot and he's the primo 4th line player for that. You'd prefer to grow a player like this in house but when you don't have one you can really count on when you need it, you pay the premium to get him. It's not like the Leafs aren't going to be swimming in cap after this year and two important ELC's run pretty much through their course during this time.

 

[buttman*]

Can't wait for this guy to start patrolling the fourth line. Apparently some people wanted him to play for free.

 

[mmalady]

i said it before and i will say it again...love the term , price and player...i couldnt be happier with this signing..and...cant wait for the "eating crow" thread in and around december....and welcome shutupbeavis...thoughtful post

 

[Ari91]

lol. You see that I'm right and redirect the discussion (again). The vast majority of posters are justifying this signing because Martin has good shot suppression numbers. Clune's are better. 19GP for 15/16 Leafs, can only assume the minimum required for analysis is 20? No Marlies advanced stats available, but he was a +20 (and .5ppg) which would generally indicate that he's not defensively weak. He's better than people want to give him credit for. It's pretty hard to justify Martin eating up a roster spot at this kind of money and term (with buyout protection!). It's not going to kill us, but it's not going to help us.

I don't think people are justifying Martin's signing and contract because of his suppression numbers. I think like most stats, people are using it as compliment to what they see on the ice. Nothing needs to be justified at this point. The guy hasn't even stepped on the ice yet in a Leafs jersey, let alone played a game. Martin brings a style to the lineup that is severely lacking on the current roster right now whether he proves to be a good signing or not will be determined in the new season. Neither side is no more right than the other at this point but you certainly won't find a forum that unanimously wants to think of the worst case scenario of a player who puts on a Leafs jersey, somehow forgets how to play hockey, no one will take him in a trade and the last resort is a buyout that will count against the count and possibly impact future signings or re-signings of our young guys. There are a lot of elements that will have to come into play to get to the scenario and concern that you're suggesting. If it's far too early to get many people to take that bait right now.