Looking at the history of these, I think the biggest question for Cotton is exactly what success at BC translates to at the AHL level.
For comparison, in 17-18 Lucas Wallmark, the 2nd leading scorer in Charlotte, scored 55 points in 45 games at age 22. Cotton last year scored 36 points in 39 games at age 21 at BC.
So if you're wondering why Lucas Wallmark was ranked #13 last year vs Cotton's #17, the answer is BC vs Charlotte and a higher PPG. Was Wallmark under-ranked? Probably. But Cotton also hasn't shown that success at that level yet.
And keep in mind, Wallmark translated that success to a 28 point season as a rookie this year. Promising, but Wallmark needs to continue to adjust to the NHL to show he can contribute more in the NHL. Like Wallmark, it's going to take Cotton some time to adjust to professional hockey and see if he can ramp up to a 0.5 PPG player.
Meanwhile, Carolina has Wallmark who appears to be on his way to that already and has proven he can make the transition to the NHL at 23. In addition, Carolina has established AHL forwards (Necas, Geekie, Gauthier, Kuokkanen) and Matteos who followed up a great OHL season with a great AHL playoff run.
There's not much argument to be had about any of the forwards ahead of Cotton on this list. I look at that as a good thing; there's good depth in the system.