Speculation: Top 5 leading scorers for 2018-2019 - #3

[biotk]

Marner produced at a 94 point pace last season while on the ‘checking line’ against the opposing team’s top lines... how was he more sheltered? How has Marner been put in a far better position to succeed than Nylander? Nylander has played the majority of his career with our best player...

Marner's 5v5 P60 was essentially the same with Kadri (2.07) as it was without (2.01). His production went up in the second half - most of that was caused by the PP production being unsustainably high (on a PP unit that remained the same all year, and certainly had nothing to do with Marner being on the checking line). Posters also inevitably include several games that Marner played before switching to the Kadri line as being among his Kadri games because his point surge started several games before being switched to the Kadri line.

 

[MyBudJT]

@Morgs, I’ll respond to your post when I get time on my laptop (it’s a bit too juicy to respond to on my phone).

Posters also inevitably include several games that Marner played before switching to the Kadri line as being among his Kadri games because his point surge started several games before being switched to the Kadri line.

This is completely fabricated. Jan 24 was the line switch. Final 40 games of season/playoffs, Marner played on a 94 point pace.

 

[Liminality]

@Morgs, I’ll respond to your post when I get time on my laptop (it’s a bit too juicy to respond to on my phone).



This is completely fabricated. Jan 24 was the line switch. Final 40 games of season/playoffs, Marner played on a 94 point pace.

He was a ppg for the last 53 games of the regular season. That's starting from the game on December 9th.

 

[stickty111]

So how does matthews get 88 points if nylander only gets 64?

People are really starting to overrate marner a little here. Matthews and Tavares both have ppg seasons (matthews for 63 games which isn’t a full season obviously) and therefore have prior examples of being able to more likely score 85+ points. Marner and his 69 points are great but not in the level of matthews or Jt (yet).

 

[stickty111]

People like to blame JVR and Bozak just to make excuses for greatest thing ever Marner, but maybe that line was struggling because of Marner?
I get he can do no wrong, but Bozak and JVR were being hurt by Marner, so Babcock had to switch them up. Didnt Bozak go a few months without being on the ice for a GA, funny its when Brown replaced wonder kid Mitch.

Was Marner the problem?

 

[MyBudJT]

He was a ppg for the last 53 games of the regular season. That's starting from the game on December 9th.

Just curious, does that include playoffs? Regardless, I don’t see anyone using that date cutoff when talking about Marner...

Still, he didn’t start producing at a 94 point pace until he played with Kadri.

 

[jboknows]

I don't think anyone cracks 90-points on this team. I can see a couple guys breaking 80, though, with a couple/few in the 70's.

Babcock loves to play all his lines. I expect the scoring variance between our top-9 forwards to be much tighter than people expect (i.e. the stars not getting as many points and 3rd-liners getting more).

 

[Liminality]

Just curious, does that include playoffs? Regardless, I don’t see anyone using that date cutoff when talking about Marner...

Still, he didn’t start producing at a 94 point pace until he played with Kadri.

That's not including playoffs. 53gp 20g 33a 53p.

 

[Morgs]

Just curious, does that include playoffs? Regardless, I don’t see anyone using that date cutoff when talking about Marner...

Still, he didn’t start producing at a 94 point pace until he played with Kadri.

There's the season and there's the playoffs. They're two completely different animals so merging them together and saying "94 point pace" is very odd.

Watch the series again, and tell me how much Marner is getting away with. Boston didn't care that that line even existed, they focused solely on the Matthews line.

 

[ACC1224]

I don't think anyone cracks 90-points on this team. I can see a couple guys breaking 80, though, with a few in the 70's.

Babcock loves to play all his lines. I expect the scoring variance between our top-9 forwards to be much tighter than people expect (i.e. the stars not getting as many points and 3rd-liners getting more).

IMO, the top 3 guys will all be ppg players next year.
Not sure of the order, it could easily be any of Matthews, Tavares or Marner leading the team.

Anyone know the last team to have 3 ppg players?

 

[MyBudJT]

That's not including playoffs. 53gp 20g 33a 53p.

Thanks... Why aren’t we including playoffs?

People are quick to say that we should present full-season stats... aren’t the games played in May more important and relevant than the games played in October?

If you included playoffs, Marner was a PPG player for the last 60+ games of the Campaign... something Nylander hasn’t done on any 30 game stretch of his career....PPG over 60+GP is getting into Matthews territory here...

 

[stickty111]

Marner before being switched to Kadri's line
Games: 49
Points: 32
PPG: 0.65

Marner after being to switched to Kadri's line
Games: 33
Points: 37
PPG: 1.12

Proves Marner just wasnt playing well before the change, and also wasnt a PPG player on Bozak's line.
Stop making excuses for Marner, he wasnt good before and then stepped up his game.

 

[stickty111]

There's the season and there's the playoffs. They're two completely different animals so merging them together and saying "94 point pace" is very odd.

Watch the series again, and tell me how much Marner is getting away with. Boston didn't care that that line even existed, they focused solely on the Matthews line.

Quoted for truth

 

[Notsince67]

Marker stands to be a real highlight of this coming season.

He will be really sharpie

 

[Notsince67]

There's the season and there's the playoffs. They're two completely different animals so merging them together and saying "94 point pace" is very odd.

Watch the series again, and tell me how much Marner is getting away with. Boston didn't care that that line even existed, they focused solely on the Matthews line.

That is why Boston's coach particularly mentioned Marner's affect on the ice.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

LOL! Why are these Nylander ‘fanboys’ being so passive aggressive? Why can't we have a civil debate?

Lol, yikes. Self awareness is definitely lacking here. If you want a civil debate, don't start off your post by calling the other side aggressive fan boys. You shouldn't need that explained to you

 

[ACC1224]

That is why Boston's coach particularly mentioned Marner's affect on the ice.

They barely noticed he was on the ice.

https://www.tsn.ca/stronger-marner-emerging-as-bruins-killer-1.1061287

 

[Duke Silver]

It's Marner. Close 'er up and move on to #4.

Could probably close the next one up because Nylander will get 95% of the vote.

#5 is where it gets interesting.

 

[MyBudJT]

Lol, yikes. Self awareness is definitely lacking here. If you want a civil debate, don't start off your post by calling the other side aggressive fan boys. You shouldn't need that explained to you

I think you misinterpreted that statement, or I did a poor job writing it. I conciously put fanboys in quotes because I didn’t mean it maliciously. We are all Nylander fans here... we have Nylander fans, and then we have Nylander FANS (fanboys) know what I mean?

 

[Morgs]

That is why Boston's coach particularly mentioned Marner's affect on the ice.

Watch the series again, and look at all of their matchups.

Do you really think they cared one bit about Marner if the best line in hockey (and arguably best defensively as well) focused on Matthews the entire series? Who did Chara/McAvoy play against?

 

[Liminality]

Thanks... Why aren’t we including playoffs?

People are quick to say that we should present full-season stats... aren’t the games played in May more important and relevant than the games played in October?

If you included playoffs, Marner was a PPG player for the last 60+ games of the Campaign... something Nylander hasn’t done on any 30 game stretch of his career....PPG over 60+GP is getting into Matthews territory here...

I wasn't trying to actively avoid playoff stats, that's just the longest period of time that he was a ppg in the season. Just saying some of that time must have included him still being on Bozak's and JVR's line.

 

[biotk]

This is completely fabricated. Jan 24 was the line switch. Final 40 games of season/playoffs, Marner played on a 94 point pace.

Well congrats of being one of the few to get the correct date. I notice you had nothing to say about Marner having essentially the same P/60 with Kadri as without. The reality is that for the last 33 games of the season Marner's P/60 on the PP were double what it was for the first 49. The PP P/60 of the first 49 games, which is very good, is what he is likely to average going forward.

In the playoffs Marner was lucky. It happens. Matthews scored 4 goals during his first game. Great player. Great goal scorer, but hasn't come close to 4 in a game since, despite having games with far more high danger shots. Sometimes you get lucky. Most really good shots don't go in. Some really poor shots do go in.

In the playoffs most of the goals Marner was on the ice for were from medium danger chances, and most of the goals against that Matthews was on the ice were from medium danger chances. Normally those chances will find the back of net about 3.5% of the time when someone like Marner or Matthews is on the ice. For Marner they were going in 5 times that often in the playoffs. At 5v5 he was on the ice for 6 goals for and 3 against. If he maintained his on-ice shooting percentage from the regular season for high, medium and low dangerous attempts (both for and against) the expected result would have been 3 goals for and 4 against. For the PP it would have been only 1 goal for (again - lucky). For Matthews, it was the opposite. He was on the ice at 5v5 for 4 goals for and 8 goals against. If he maintained his on-ice shooting percentage for high, medium and low danger attempts (both for and against) the expected result would have been 8 goals for 3 against, and another goal for on the PP.

Players generally regress to the mean. For next year's regular season Marner will likely see his PP numbers regress to the mean, and his 5v5 numbers stay about the same. Maybe he will get a small bump at 5v5 from playing with Tavares (although his history with Hyman is very bad). Matthews will likely see his 5v5 numbers regress and that will likely be balanced by an improvement from unsustainably bad PP numbers.

 

[biotk]

Who did Chara/McAvoy play against?

Chara played against Matthews most of the time. Marner played against Chara for 30 minutes: 0 GF 2 GA.

 

[Notsince67]

Watch the series again, and look at all of their matchups.

Do you really think they cared one bit about Marner if the best line in hockey (and arguably best defensively as well) focused on Matthews the entire series? Who did Chara/McAvoy play against?

“He’s been the most dangerous player against us,” said Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy. “I like his will. He’s got a lot of second effort. I mean, in Boston Kevan Miller hit him, Tim Schaller (hit him), I thought good clean hits and he kept coming back so the kid’s obviously very competitive."

 

[biotk]

People like to blame JVR and Bozak just to make excuses for greatest thing ever Marner, but maybe that line was struggling because of Marner?
I get he can do no wrong, but Bozak and JVR were being hurt by Marner, so Babcock had to switch them up. Didnt Bozak go a few months without being on the ice for a GA, funny its when Brown replaced wonder kid Mitch.

Was Marner the problem?

Yeah, I have already pointed out the for Bozak and JVR their GF/60 went up without Marner and their GA/60 went down with down without Marner.

People talk about the change with Marner in his last 33 games of the regular season when he was with Kadri, but JVR had as many 5v5 points in those final 33 games (when no longer playing with Marner) as he did in the first 49 (when usually playing with Marner).

There is no evidence that Marner was being held back by JVR and Bozak.