Speculation: Top 5 leading scorers for 2018-2019 - #3

[Leafs1993]

Who do you think will be #3 in points this season? I will do a poll for the next 2 days to find out the remaining top 5 in points based on your predictions. Might be fun to look back at the end of the season.

1: Auston Matthews (47.2% 51 votes)
2: John Tavares (50% 46 votes)
3:
4:
5:

John Tavares is a Toronto Maple Leaf. Still crazy to think about. You guys voted him for the #2 spot so I will vote Marner again.

Click to read more...

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Although i think marner takes this one, #4 should be interesting, i think nylander will be the popular choice, but rielly with some more ice time could hit 60+ points if healthy which is insane.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Marner I think he'll be no worse than #2.

 

[lovemyleafs]

Marner will take this one with ease. But #4 should be fun. I think Naz will shock a lot of people and finish 4th in the scoring race.

 

[Tall Morty]

Marker will take this one with ease. But #4 should be fun. I think Naz will shock a lot of people and finish 4th in the scoring race.

Marker stands to be a real highlight of this coming season.

 

[MyBudJT]

I think you guys have it backwards...

1) Marner (28G 93P)
2) Tavares (39G 90P)
3) Matthews (44G 88P)
------------------------------


4) Nylander (24G, 64P)
5) Kadri (29G, 60P)
6) Rielly (8G, 53P)
7) Hyman (20G, 50P)
8) Gardiner (10G, 46P)
9) Johnsson (18G, 45P)
10) Marleau (22G, 44P)

 

[Walshy7]

I think you guys have it backwards...

1) Marner (28G 93P)
2) Tavares (39G 90P)
3) Matthews (44G 88P)
------------------------------


4) Nylander (24G, 64P)
5) Kadri (29G, 60P)
6) Rielly (8G, 53P)
7) Hyman (20G, 50P)
8) Gardiner (10G, 46P)
9) Johnsson (18G, 45P)
10) Marleau (22G, 44P)

So how does matthews get 88 points if nylander only gets 64?

People are really starting to overrate marner a little here. Matthews and Tavares both have ppg seasons (matthews for 63 games which isn’t a full season obviously) and therefore have prior examples of being able to more likely score 85+ points. Marner and his 69 points are great but not in the level of matthews or Jt (yet).

 

[MyBudJT]

So how does matthews get 88 points if nylander only gets 64?

People are really starting to overrate marner a little here. Matthews and Tavares both have ppg seasons (matthews for 63 games which isn’t a full season obviously) and therefore have prior examples of being able to more likely score 85+ points. Marner and his 69 points are great but not in the level of matthews or Jt (yet).

Matthews was nearly on pace for 88 points last season while Nylander had 61...

Also, for a >40 game sample to end the year, Marner produced at a 94 point pace...

What I posted isn’t unrealistic by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[LeafGrief]

Marner has the potential for insane production this year. Matthews, Tavares, Marner, and Nylander are all going to go PPG this year and it's going to be f***ING AWESOME!

 

[Brown Dog]

I think you seriously have to wonder if Babcock / Dubas don't plan on letting Marner completely unleashed this year with contract negotiations coming next off-season.

 

[Walshy7]

Matthews was nearly on pace for 88 points last season while Nylander had 61...

Also, for a >40 game sample to end the year, Marner produced at a 94 point pace...

What I posted isn’t unrealistic by any stretch of the imagination.

But Matthews missed 20 games are you assuming nylander would have gone me pointless had matthews played out his 88 point season? Also if nylander went pointless in those 20 games matthews ppg would have dropped obviously.

All I am saying there is a lot of marner fans assuming he can get 80-90 points meanwhile Tavares has 3 actual 80 point seasons and Matthews has 63 games over ppg which I think you will agree is better than 40. Until marner acheives these great heights fans think he can he can’t be first on these kind of lists. especially since his center is Jt who as I said has 3 actual ppg or better seasons playing with marner will help him just as much as marner playing with Jt

 

[MyBudJT]

20-25 point differences between line mates happen all the time, don’t they?

Marner has shown he has the skill to produce more than Matthews. In their rookie season, there was a scoring race between them until Marner got Mono.

Last season, Marner started on the fourth line... why include the October / November stats for Marner when he wasn’t used at his full capacity.

I don’t think it’s premature to put Marner on the top of these kind of lists... He has shown time and time again that he can be an elite winger in this league, and honestly has Patrick Kane-lite potential.

 

[Walshy7]

20-25 point differences between line mates happen all the time, don’t they?

Marner has shown he has the skill to produce more than Matthews. In their rookie season, there was a scoring race between them until Marner got Mono.

Last season, Marner started on the fourth line... why include the October / November stats for Marner when he wasn’t used at his full capacity.

I don’t think it’s premature to put Marner on the top of these kind of lists... He has shown time and time again that he can be an elite winger in this league, and honestly has Patrick Kane-lite potential.

Marner has 8 more points than nylander end of , none of this 40 games of 90 point play crap in 82 games he got 69 points, why ignore the fact he seriously struggled early last year?. I realize this comes of as marner hating which I don’t, i want marner on this team but as of right now he is 3rd best closer to 4th than 2nd.

Patrick Kane lite is a 1st line winger which nylander and marner already are.

 

[markh100]

Marner has 8 more points than nylander end of , none of this 40 games of 90 point play crap in 82 games he got 69 points, why ignore the fact he seriously struggled early last year?. I realize this comes of as marner hating which I don’t, i want marner on this team but as of right now he is 3rd best closer to 4th than 2nd.

Patrick Kane lite is a 1st line winger which nylander and marner already are.

In case you forgot, Babcock put Marner on the 4th line for much of the first half of the year, and severely limited his minutes. He played less than 13 minutes in 10 of the first 20 games of the season. The day they put Mar-Kad-Mar together, his scoring rate went through the roof.

 

[Walshy7]

In case you forgot, Babcock put Marner on the 4th line for much of the first half of the year, and severely limited his minutes. He played less than 13 minutes in 10 of the first 20 games of the season. The day they put Mar-Kad-Mar together, his scoring rate went through the roof.

and did babcock just put him there for no reason? no marner was playing badly and therefore demoted. Just in case you forgot

 

[Buds17]

Marner. Think Tavares and Matthews will be closer to each other in point totals, but don't expect Marner to be far off either.

 

[MyBudJT]

Marner has 8 more points than nylander end of , none of this 40 games of 90 point play crap in 82 games he got 69 points, why ignore the fact he seriously struggled early last year?. I realize this comes of as marner hating which I don’t, i want marner on this team but as of right now he is 3rd best closer to 4th than 2nd.

Patrick Kane lite is a 1st line winger which nylander and marner already are.

Lol, why are you so upset at my post?

Marner has shown he can drive a line, Nylander hasn’t. Marner is younger than Nylander... Nylander hasn’t shown he can produce without Matthews, Marner has.

I agree, Marner is our third best player... but he’ll get the most points...

 

[ACC1224]

In case you forgot, Babcock put Marner on the 4th line for much of the first half of the year, and severely limited his minutes. He played less than 13 minutes in 10 of the first 20 games of the season. The day they put Mar-Kad-Mar together, his scoring rate went through the roof.

Yeah, they had to get him away from Bozak and JVR they were killing the kid. Easier to move one player than two, thankfully we don't have to watch those two anymore.

 

[Morgs]

Lol, why are you so upset at my post?

Marner has shown he can drive a line, Nylander hasn’t. Marner is younger than Nylander... Nylander hasn’t shown he can produce without Matthews, Marner has.

I agree, Marner is our third best player... but he’ll get the most points...

Unless your definition for "driv[ing] a line" is different from reality, this statement is objectively false.

Nylander has proven to be effective in the lineup no matter where he has been put. Marner has shown very similar but has been sheltered far more, and has been put in a far better position to succeed than Nylander has.

I don't mind people saying Marner will get more points than Nylander, or even that he's a better player. But the claim you put in that Nylander will score 29 less points is just laughable.

 

[Liminality]

Although i think marner takes this one, #4 should be interesting, i think nylander will be the popular choice, but rielly with some more ice time could hit 60+ points if healthy which is insane.

If Matthews really hits it this season, Nylander will partially be a reason for that and will benefit the most from it imo. If Matthews his 80ish points, I can't see Nylander getting under 70 with him.

 

[Morgs]

If Matthews really hits it this season, Nylander will partially be a reason for that and will benefit the most from it imo. If Matthews his 80ish points, I can't see Nylander getting under 70 with him.

Yup. Let's remember that Nylander put up the same amount of points as he did the season prior, but was forced to play without Matthews for 20~ games.

No, Nylander doesn't "need" Matthews to be a great player, but his point totals could've been much higher having a PPG player on his line.

 

[Liminality]

In case you forgot, Babcock put Marner on the 4th line for much of the first half of the year, and severely limited his minutes. He played less than 13 minutes in 10 of the first 20 games of the season. The day they put Mar-Kad-Mar together, his scoring rate went through the roof.

I think that point gets widely overblown for Marner.

I don't know how many games Marner was on the 4th line last year but it certainly wasn't much of the first half of the year.

Here's Marner's stats on all the lines he played on last year.

Bozak had 4 games under 13 minutes in the first 20 games and JVR had 7 games under 13 minutes in the first 20 games.

Marner was on that line for quite a while and that line was being sheltered.

 

[MyBudJT]

Unless your definition for "driv[ing] a line" is different from reality, this statement is objectively false.

LOL! Why are these Nylander ‘fanboys’ being so passive aggressive? Why can’t we have a civil debate? Perhaps we have different definitions of ‘driving a line’?

When I think of a player as having the ability to ‘drive a line’, I consider a player that can (and does) consistently produce points single handily in any given night. They don’t need specific players to help them produce points... Marner and Matthews have shown this ability, Nylander has not. Nylander is a very good player, but t hasn’t produced away from Matthews... What is objectively false about any of this?

Nylander has proven to be heffective in the lineup no matter where he has been put. Marner has shown very similar but has been sheltered far more, and has been put in a far better position to succeed than Nylander has.

I disagree... Nylander was not all that effective at all when Matthews was injured last season...

Marner produced at a 94 point pace last season while on the ‘checking line’ against the opposing team’s top lines... how was he more sheltered? How has Marner been put in a far better position to succeed than Nylander? Nylander has played the majority of his career with our best player...

y
I don't mind people saying Marner will get more points than Nylander, or even that he's a better player. But the claim you put in that Nylander will score 29 less points is just laughable.

Nylander hasn’t been able to produce much higher than a 70 point pace over any 20 game stretch of his career.. Marner has shown in a 40 game sample that he can be a mid-90s point player. How is my assertion ‘laughable’?

 

[MyBudJT]

Yup. Let's remember that Nylander put up the same amount of points as he did the season prior, but was forced to play without Matthews for 20~ games.

No, Nylander doesn't "need" Matthews to be a great player, but his point totals could've been much higher having a PPG player on his line.

So we can use this argument to suggest Nylander should have got more points, but nobody seems to be making the same claim about Marner. How many points would Marner and Matthews produce had they been linemates a full season?

 

[Morgs]

LOL! Why are these Nylander ‘fanboys’ being so passive aggressive? Why can’t we have a civil debate? Perhaps we have different definitions of ‘driving a line’?

When I think of a player as having the ability to ‘drive a line’, I consider a player that can (and does) consistently produce points single handily in any given night. They don’t need specific players to help them produce points... Marner and Matthews have shown this ability, Nylander has not. Nylander is a very good player, but t hasn’t produced away from Matthews... What is objectively false about any of this?

Points are very much luck driven, using points as a measuring stick for "driving a line" is silly. Plus, 5v5 Nylander had more points (and the same amount of primary points as Marner had points) than Marner, so....? Driving lines has a lot more to do with shot shares as they're still easily the most predictive measure. Nylander creates more shots for both himself and his linemates.

If Nylander kept the same PPG that he did with Matthews for the 62 games they played together over the 20 game stretch he missed, he would have ended up with 5 more points on the season. Hardly an "inability" to produce without Matthews.

I disagree... Nylander was not all that effective at all when Matthews was injured last season...

Less effective at scoring, sure. But his shot shares actually improved with the easier competition. Unsurprising from a guy that has the ability to carry lines.

Marner produced at a 94 point pace last season while on the ‘checking line’ against the opposing team’s top lines... how was he more sheltered? How has Marner been put in a far better position to succeed than Nylander? Nylander has played the majority of his career with our best player...

Nylander hasn’t been able to produce much higher than a 70 point pace over any 20 game stretch of his career.. Marner has shown in a 40 game sample that he can be a mid-90s point player. How is my assertion ‘laughable’?

You don't realize how comp stats work if you don't believe Marner was sheltered in comparison. Best player means that Nylander is always matching up against the other team's top comp. Kadri has always taken on the other teams stars, and Marner has faced other team's 3rd lines while starting a ridiculous amount in the offensive zone.

Most of that stretch was done on the PP. Although I'm not bashing the powerplay as a strong way to get points, it's still not as impressive as scoring 5v5 as they're playing 10+ minutes more there. You do realize that if you combine Nylander's PPP from 2016-17 and his ESP from 2017-18, you're talking about a 74 point forward. I mean, the guy scored 15 less PPP than he did the season prior so it's also not a given that Marner will follow up his ridiculous PP performance. Nylander clearly hasn't put it together yet, but assuming he's going to "stagnate" by putting up only 3 more points than his career best, and Marner will put up 25 more than his career best is legitimately bonkers.

So we can use this argument to suggest Nylander should have got more points, but nobody seems to be making the same claim about Marner. How many points would Marner and Matthews produce had they been linemates a full season?

Because you'd be assuming a hell of a lot by even attempting to make that a debate.