Speculation: Top 5 leading scorers for 2018-2019 - #3

Who will be #3 in points for 2018-2019?

  • Zach Hyman

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Patrick Marleau

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Andreas Johnson

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Kasperi Kapanen

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Morgan Reilly

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Jake Gardiner

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    123
  • Poll closed .

ACC1224

Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
Aug 19, 2002
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Nylander is getting seriously underrated. If people want to say marner is better fine ( I think they are dead even @Nithoniniel back me up here haha) but to say the delta between the two will be over 25-30 pts is insane. Willy is just as much a ppg threat as mitch imo.
Yeah, it won't be that large a spread.

I'd vote Tavares in this poll but the option is not available so I didn't vote.
 
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Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
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You're right in saying that points alone don't tell you who is the 'driver' on a line... However a 'driver' on the line would be able to rack up (many) points regardless who their linemates are.

Nylander hasn't shown he can consistently produce with Matthews off of his line.
Matthews has consistently produced without Nylander (With Brown last season)
Marner has consistent produced on a few different types of lines...

Prove it.

Can you provide a resource showing that 'Nylander creates more shots for both himself and his linemates'?

upload_2018-8-21_8-33-28.png


94th percentile to 81st percentile.

Huh? You've basically just confirmed my premise with this post. You essentially just conceded that Nylander would get 20 less points if he didn't play with Matthews....

45 point production isn't anything special...

Marner with JVR/Bozak:

53P/82GP , 20 of those points would've been on the PP.

It's cool that you cherry pick stats and pretend like Kadri isn't a very good player in his own right.

Can you elaborate on this 'shot shares' stuff you're discussing?

Marner produced at a 94 point pace facing other teams' top lines (with Kadri)... this is a fact. Matthews' line faced other teams top checking lines... both extremely challenging in their own right, and I don't think its widely known in the analytical community what is tougher... Quality of Teammates and Quality of Competition no doubt influence the ability for a player to produce... but is QoC higher when a top line plays a checking line, or another top line?

Lmaooooo playoffs and season is completely different. The only time he went above PPG is basically the SSS playoff round, but please keep milking that for all it's worth when in reality it has nothing to do with regular season points - which is what this thread is about.

I don't think anyone is 'blaming JVR and Bozak' for anything... but you have to acknowledge that Matthews is a better player than JVR and Bozak... Typically playing with better linemates will help your point production... However that IS a rule of thumb, and you cannot deny the importance of chemistry. JVR-Bozie-Marner line clearly lost their chemistry last season.

And you have to acknowledge that Nylander without Matthews mostly played with Hyman + Marleau, or Kadri + Komarov. Not exactly easy to get points with guys you don't have chemistry with or are completely ruining play for you (Komarov).

Noone is making excuses for Marner... my stance is that Marner stepped up his game for a large portion of the season to a level that we haven't seen Nylander play at yet.

On the powerplay lmao.
 

MyBudJT

Registered User
Mar 5, 2018
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Prove it.


View attachment 135483

94th percentile to 81st percentile.



Marner with JVR/Bozak:

53P/82GP , 20 of those points would've been on the PP.

It's cool that you cherry pick stats and pretend like Kadri isn't a very good player in his own right.



Lmaooooo playoffs and season is completely different. The only time he went above PPG is basically the SSS playoff round, but please keep milking that for all it's worth when in reality it has nothing to do with regular season points - which is what this thread is about.



And you have to acknowledge that Nylander without Matthews mostly played with Hyman + Marleau, or Kadri + Komarov. Not exactly easy to get points with guys you don't have chemistry with or are completely ruining play for you (Komarov).



On the powerplay lmao.

I’m at work, and don’t have the time to dig around for stats. Its clear that we are going around in circles here...

It’s already been well documented that Nylander hasn’t produced points consistently away from Matthews... Matthews and Marner have both carried their lines for long stretches in their short careers.

Those shot figures you provided mean nothing if they don’t account for quality of teammates, and a lesser degree, quality of competition.

I’m not pretending Kadri is a poor player, you’re just trying to put words in my mouth. At this point, it’s clear you’re not open minded on this topic and are just hearing what you’re wanting to hear.

My point is that Nylander “fanboys” are cherry picking stats as well by not including playoff production. Truthfully, October and November means squat to the player Marner is today... he improved a lot during the season last year and those wary months are irrelevant... if you want the biggest sample possible, then include the playoffs too.
 

Notsince67

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Apr 27, 2018
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I’m at work, and don’t have the time to dig around for stats. Its clear that we are going around in circles here...

It’s already been well documented that Nylander hasn’t produced points consistently away from Matthews... Matthews and Marner have both carried their lines for long stretches in their short careers.

Those shot figures you provided mean nothing if they don’t account for quality of teammates, and a lesser degree, quality of competition.

I’m not pretending Kadri is a poor player, you’re just trying to put words in my mouth. At this point, it’s clear you’re not open minded on this topic and are just hearing what you’re wanting to hear.

My point is that Nylander “fanboys” are cherry picking stats as well by not including playoff production. Truthfully, October and November means squat to the player Marner is today... he improved a lot during the season last year and those wary months are irrelevant... if you want the biggest sample possible, then include the playoffs too.
There was a reason that Marner was not paired with Matthews that Babcock has discussed. People actually play better with Marner. That is what driving a line means
There is a lot of revisionist history going on around here.
Marner
TOR 1718 Marner With-or-Without You

Vs Nylander
TOR 1718 Nylander With-or-Without You
 

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
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London, ON
I’m at work, and don’t have the time to dig around for stats. Its clear that we are going around in circles here...

It’s already been well documented that Nylander hasn’t produced points consistently away from Matthews... Matthews and Marner have both carried their lines for long stretches in their short careers.

Those shot figures you provided mean nothing if they don’t account for quality of teammates, and a lesser degree, quality of competition.

I’m not pretending Kadri is a poor player, you’re just trying to put words in my mouth. At this point, it’s clear you’re not open minded on this topic and are just hearing what you’re wanting to hear.

My point is that Nylander “fanboys” are cherry picking stats as well by not including playoff production. Truthfully, October and November means squat to the player Marner is today... he improved a lot during the season last year and those wary months are irrelevant... if you want the biggest sample possible, then include the playoffs too.

You're going to quote qual of comp, and then not admit Nylander has faced much tougher throughout his respective career?

You do realize you've cherry picked stats to a ridiculous extent?
- Only the last 20 games with JVR/Bozak instead of the full SS.
- Including playoffs in the "leading scorers" thread when it's clearly regular season only.
- Not realizing a ridiculous amount of his points were scored on the PP, and it was a bigger jump to his points than his changing of lines.

I'm actually very open minded on the topic. I just don't believe Marner is:

#1. This ridiculously elite player on the same tier as Matthews/Tavares that so many Leaf fans have constantly claimed by having him lead us in points.
#2. That he's better than Nylander.

upload_2018-8-21_9-37-4.png


upload_2018-8-21_9-39-15.png
 

Walshy7

Registered User
Sep 18, 2016
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Toronto
There was a reason that Marner was not paired with Matthews that Babcock has discussed. People actually play better with Marner. That is what driving a line means
There is a lot of revisionist history going on around here.
Marner
TOR 1718 Marner With-or-Without You

Vs Nylander
TOR 1718 Nylander With-or-Without You

im not the best with these charts but if Matthews and Nylander are in the roughly the same position when together, but fall to roughly the same position apart doesn't that remove this narrative of Matthews carrying nylander?

together they are good apart they are good but not as good it appears. Nylander is slightly better without Matthews than Matthews is without nylander
 

MyBudJT

Registered User
Mar 5, 2018
7,429
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You're going to quote qual of comp, and then not admit Nylander has faced much tougher throughout his respective career?

I'm actually very open minded on the topic. I just don't believe Marner is:

#1. This ridiculously elite player on the same tier as Matthews/Tavares that so many Leaf fans have constantly claimed by having him lead us in points.
#2. That he's better than Nylander.

View attachment 135485

View attachment 135487

We are not talking about career. We are talking about last season. It’s up for debate who faced tougher qoc in the second half of the year.

All my discussion points are from Jan 24 onwards. This is when Marner started to play at another level for a significant sample size (40 games). Quite frankly, October and November are irrelevant.
 

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
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We are not talking about career. We are talking about last season. It’s up for debate who faced tougher qoc in the second half of the year.

All my discussion points are from Jan 24 onwards. This is when Marner started to play at another level for a significant sample size (40 games). Quite frankly, October and November are irrelevant.

So you're using a small sample size during which his PPP were arguably the best in the entire NHL as the barometer for his future career success?

Ok, so then if we're going to cut out random months for him, can we do the same with Nylander? I propose eliminating the 42 games where he didn't score multiple points in a game.
 
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Liminality

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We are not talking about career. We are talking about last season. It’s up for debate who faced tougher qoc in the second half of the year.

All my discussion points are from Jan 24 onwards. This is when Marner started to play at another level for a significant sample size (40 games). Quite frankly, October and November are irrelevant.
Nylander had 23 even strength points from Jan 24th onwards, Marner had 22 even strength points in the same time frame in the regular season. Marner's powerplay unit really hit it off though and he was a big part of that success. Will be interesting to see how the powerplay units come together next year and if Willy can have the same amount of success that he had on the powerplay in his rookie year.
 
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MyBudJT

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So you're using a small sample size during which his PPP were arguably the best in the entire NHL as the barometer for his future career success?

Ok, so then if we're going to cut out random months for him, can we do the same with Nylander? I propose eliminating the 42 games where he didn't score multiple points in a game.

It’s not random months though. You ask any NHL player or fans who have watched hockey for a long time... players and teams don’t really get in a grove until December. I could be wrong, but hockey games are higher scoring games in October and November than February and March.
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
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im not the best with these charts but if Matthews and Nylander are in the roughly the same position when together, but fall to roughly the same position apart doesn't that remove this narrative of Matthews carrying nylander?

together they are good apart they are good but not as good it appears. Nylander is slightly better without Matthews than Matthews is without nylander
I didn't claim that Matthews is carrying him. Only that his style of play doesn't have a hugely positive affect on other players (from a shot perspective)
If you look at the Marner chart, the divergence of blue on the right top and red on the left bottom shows the premise that he makes other players better
Edit...also interesting that Marner did not do well at all with Hyman considering the consensus that Hyman will be on his line
 

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
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It’s not random months though. You ask any NHL player or fans who have watched hockey for a long time... players and teams don’t really get in a grove until December. I could be wrong, but hockey games are higher scoring games in October and November than February and March.

Really grasping at straws at this point, eh.
 

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
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im not the best with these charts but if Matthews and Nylander are in the roughly the same position when together, but fall to roughly the same position apart doesn't that remove this narrative of Matthews carrying nylander?

together they are good apart they are good but not as good it appears. Nylander is slightly better without Matthews than Matthews is without nylander

It's because those charts lack any form of context. It's nice to look at, and it gives an idea of "What you want to look for", but it's not an ideal for an argument.
 

Walshy7

Registered User
Sep 18, 2016
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I didn't claim that Matthews is carrying him. Only that his style of play doesn't have a hugely positive affect on other players (from a shot perspective)
If you look at the Marner chart, the divergence of blue on the right top and red on the left bottom shows the premise that he makes other players better

no don't get me wrong I wasn't clear, I wasn't aiming that at you. Just pointing out that when people want to discredit Nylander they say he rides Matthews coattails. Matthews away from Nylander concedes more shots than nylander away from Matthews while nylander also creates more shots away from Matthews. Only slighty mind you and together they are miles better.

I also wasn't wasn't using it in a nylander vs Marner fashion, just nice to see evidence that nylander isn't a product of Matthews that is all
 

Walshy7

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It's because those charts lack any form of context. It's nice to look at, and it gives an idea of "What you want to look for", but it's not an ideal for an argument.

but the chart shows Nylander away from Matthews is about the same level of drop off as Matthews gets too. Showing why them together is a tandem and not Matthews carrying nylander
 
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Notsince67

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no don't get me wrong I wasn't clear, I wasn't aiming that at you. Just pointing out that when people want to discredit Nylander they say he rides Matthews coattails. Matthews away from Nylander concedes more shots than nylander away from Matthews while nylander also creates more shots away from Matthews. Only slighty mind you and together they are miles better.

I also wasn't wasn't using it in a nylander vs Marner fashion, just nice to see evidence that nylander isn't a product of Matthews that is all
I think that suggesting Nylander is a product of Matthews is an absurd premise. Nylander is a high level player without a doubt. I'd actually like him to play with Tavares to see how that chemistry goes
 
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MyBudJT

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I think that suggesting Nylander is a product of Matthews is an absurd premise. Nylander is a high level player without a doubt. I'd actually like him to play with Tavares to see how that chemistry goes

To be clear, I’m not saying Nylander is a product of Matthews. I do think Matthews inflates Nylanders stats a bit... but Nylander IS a very good hockey player.
 

ACC1224

Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
Aug 19, 2002
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We'll know within the next year how the Leafs view Nylander vs Marner once both are signed.
 

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
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Ohhhhh.... That makes sense now... okay! :rolleyes:

.. you started arguing that Marners points to end the season are more impressive because you believe scoring is higher at the start of the season.

It's pretty clear this conversation is over.
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
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To be clear, I’m not saying Nylander is a product of Matthews. I do think Matthews inflates Nylanders stats a bit... but Nylander IS a very good hockey player.
Yeah...I understood what you said. I think it is fair to say that Matthews will inflate a lot of players stats. I would love to see what Matthews and Marner could do together.

Johnsson, Matthews, Marner
Marleau, Tavares, Nylander
Hyman, Kadri, Brown/kapanen
Whatever you like
 

MyBudJT

Registered User
Mar 5, 2018
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.. you started arguing that Marners points to end the season are more impressive because you believe scoring is higher at the start of the season.

It's pretty clear this conversation is over.
No, I didn’t say that. I said October and November aren’t random months to omit, because the stats are inflated in those months.

I also think October and November aren’t relevant for Marner because he has IMPROVED drastically throughout the year.

You’re right, the conversation is going nowhere because your reading comprehension is lacking.
 

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