Speculation: Top 5 leading scorers for 2018-2019 - #3

[Notsince67]

Well congrats of being one of the few to get the correct date. I notice you had nothing to say about Marner having essentially the same P/60 with Kadri as without. The reality is that for the last 33 games of the season Marner's P/60 on the PP were double what it was for the first 49. The PP P/60 of the first 49 games, which is very good, is what he is likely to average going forward.

In the playoffs Marner was lucky. It happens. Matthews scored 4 goals during his first game. Great player. Great goal scorer, but hasn't come close to 4 in a game since, despite having games with far more high danger shots. Sometimes you get lucky. Most really good shots don't go in. Some really poor shots do go in.

In the playoffs most of the goals Marner was on the ice for were from medium danger chances, and most of the goals against that Matthews was on the ice were from medium danger chances. Normally those chances will find the back of net about 3.5% of the time when someone like Marner or Matthews is on the ice. For Marner they were going in 5 times that often in the playoffs. At 5v5 he was on the ice for 6 goals for and 3 against. If he maintained his on-ice shooting percentage from the regular season for high, medium and low dangerous attempts (both for and against) the expected result would have been 3 goals for and 4 against. For the PP it would have been only 1 goal for (again - lucky). For Matthews, it was the opposite. He was on the ice at 5v5 for 4 goals for and 8 goals against. If he maintained his on-ice shooting percentage for high, medium and low danger attempts (both for and against) the expected result would have been 8 goals for 3 against, and another goal for on the PP.

Players generally regress to the mean. For next year's regular season Marner will likely see his PP numbers regress to the mean, and his 5v5 numbers stay about the same. Maybe he will get a small bump at 5v5 from playing with Tavares (although his history with Hyman is very bad). Matthews will likely see his 5v5 numbers regress and that will likely be balanced by an improvement from unsustainably bad PP numbers.

Nice try.
If you want to talk about sustainability issues, Matthews and Nylander have a regular season shooting percentage that is off the charts. Look at that to reduce.

 

[Notsince67]

Yeah, I have already pointed out the for Bozak and JVR their GF/60 went up without Marner and their GA/60 went down with down without Marner.

People talk about the change with Marner in his last 33 games of the regular season when he was with Kadri, but JVR had as many 5v5 points in those final 33 games (when no longer playing with Marner) as he did in the first 49 (when usually playing with Marner).

There is no evidence that Marner was being held back by JVR and Bozak.

When Marner was with them, they were not taking 60% of the faceoffs in the Ozone.

 

[Morgs]

“He’s been the most dangerous player against us,” said Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy. “I like his will. He’s got a lot of second effort. I mean, in Boston Kevan Miller hit him, Tim Schaller (hit him), I thought good clean hits and he kept coming back so the kid’s obviously very competitive."

Read the post above yours.

 

[biotk]

Nice try.
If you want to talk about sustainability issues, Matthews and Nylander have a regular season shooting percentage that is off the charts. Look at that to reduce.

"Matthews will likely see his 5v5 numbers regress"

I mean it was right there in the f***ing post you quoted. Amazing how I can be objective about Matthews. If only people could about Marner.

 

[Notsince67]

Read the post above yours.

The Boston coach said Marner was the most dangerous for Gods sake.

 

[biotk]

When Marner was with them, they were not taking 60% of the faceoffs in the Ozone.

Huh???

Bozak OZ faceoffs when on the ice with Marner: 61.72%
Bozak OZ faceoffs when on the ice without Marner: 51.06%

(5v5)

Incidentally

Kadri OZ faceoffs when on the ice with Marner: 49.66%
Kadri OZ faceoffs when on the ice without Marner: 34.10%

 

[Morgs]

The Boston coach said Marner was the most dangerous for Gods sake.

 

[Notsince67]

You should care because you said:
"Boston didn't care that that line even existed, they focused solely on the Matthews line. "

 

[MagicalRazor]

I legit think marner is gonna be the point leader , if he play with J.T . Will be marner / J.T / Matthews

 

[Morgs]

You should care because you said:
"Boston didn't care that that line even existed, they focused solely on the Matthews line. "

Which they did? If they truely cared, they would've put Chara/McAvoy/Bergeron/Marchand/Pastrnak on them.

Not exactly a tough concept to grasp.

 

[ACC1224]

The Boston coach said Marner was the most dangerous for Gods sake.

Seemed pretty obvious to anyone watching with an unbiased eye.

I don't know how anyone could have an issue with Marner or feel the need to put him down, such immense talent.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

"Matthews will likely see his 5v5 numbers regress"

I mean it was right there in the ****ing post you quoted. Amazing how I can be objective about Matthews. If only people could about Marner.

You gave actual valuable information instead of mindless Marner hype. Why would he read it?

 

[as Pure as Evil]

going with nylander. I think he will get locked in long term and break out the same year. I think he will be in the 80-90 point range at the end of the year

 

[Notsince67]

You gave actual valuable information instead of mindless Marner hype. Why would he read it?

Pretty obvious who the mindless Matthews fan boys are in this forum.

I've probably watched in excess of 2000 leaf games in my life. Only in recent years have I had to witness this type of Kardashian type culture permeate into hockey. It is such a shame. To much time in mama's basement with a video game and not enough on an ice rink. I really doubt you even know what you are seeing when you watch a game.

 

[Advanced stats]

I really hope Marner figures out his early season struggles.
As a huge London fan, it's a chronic problem that seems to plague him every year. Basiclly the only reason I struggle to vote for him here.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

grandpas be proud o' being old

 

[Joey Hoser]

You gave actual valuable information instead of mindless Marner hype.

Dude I don't even know what you are arguing about... but if you used the phrase "mindless Marner hype" in a sentence, you lost the argument. The f*** does that even mean?

 

[MyBudJT]

Points are very much luck driven, using points as a measuring stick for "driving a line" is silly. Plus, 5v5 Nylander had more points (and the same amount of primary points as Marner had points) than Marner, so....? Driving lines has a lot more to do with shot shares as they're still easily the most predictive measure. Nylander creates more shots for both himself and his linemates.

You're right in saying that points alone don't tell you who is the 'driver' on a line... However a 'driver' on the line would be able to rack up (many) points regardless who their linemates are.

Nylander hasn't shown he can consistently produce with Matthews off of his line.
Matthews has consistently produced without Nylander (With Brown last season)
Marner has consistent produced on a few different types of lines...

Can you provide a resource showing that 'Nylander creates more shots for both himself and his linemates'?

If Nylander kept the same PPG that he did with Matthews for the 62 games they played together over the 20 game stretch he missed, he would have ended up with 5 more points on the season. Hardly an "inability" to produce without Matthews.

Huh? You've basically just confirmed my premise with this post. You essentially just conceded that Nylander would get 20 less points if he didn't play with Matthews....

45 point production isn't anything special...

Less effective at scoring, sure. But his shot shares actually improved with the easier competition. Unsurprising from a guy that has the ability to carry lines.

Can you elaborate on this 'shot shares' stuff you're discussing?

You don't realize how comp stats work if you don't believe Marner was sheltered in comparison. Best player means that Nylander is always matching up against the other team's top comp. Kadri has always taken on the other teams stars, and Marner has faced other team's 3rd lines while starting a ridiculous amount in the offensive zone.

Marner produced at a 94 point pace facing other teams' top lines (with Kadri)... this is a fact. Matthews' line faced other teams top checking lines... both extremely challenging in their own right, and I don't think its widely known in the analytical community what is tougher... Quality of Teammates and Quality of Competition no doubt influence the ability for a player to produce... but is QoC higher when a top line plays a checking line, or another top line?

He was a ppg for the last 53 games of the regular season. That's starting from the game on December 9th.

People like to blame JVR and Bozak just to make excuses for greatest thing ever Marner, but maybe that line was struggling because of Marner?
I get he can do no wrong, but Bozak and JVR were being hurt by Marner, so Babcock had to switch them up. Didnt Bozak go a few months without being on the ice for a GA, funny its when Brown replaced wonder kid Mitch.

Was Marner the problem?

I don't think anyone is 'blaming JVR and Bozak' for anything... but you have to acknowledge that Matthews is a better player than JVR and Bozak... Typically playing with better linemates will help your point production... However that IS a rule of thumb, and you cannot deny the importance of chemistry. JVR-Bozie-Marner line clearly lost their chemistry last season.

Marner before being switched to Kadri's line
Games: 49
Points: 32
PPG: 0.65

Marner after being to switched to Kadri's line
Games: 33
Points: 37
PPG: 1.12

Proves Marner just wasnt playing well before the change, and also wasnt a PPG player on Bozak's line.
Stop making excuses for Marner, he wasnt good before and then stepped up his game.

Noone is making excuses for Marner... my stance is that Marner stepped up his game for a large portion of the season to a level that we haven't seen Nylander play at yet.

I wasn't trying to actively avoid playoff stats, that's just the longest period of time that he was a ppg in the season. Just saying some of that time must have included him still being on Bozak's and JVR's line.

Well of course. You did a good job earlier showing how he had 62 points in the final 60 games of the season.... He produced at a 94 point pace with Kadri... That means, he producing at about a 60 point pace with Bozak and JVR in the 20 games prior to the line switch...

60 point pace with JVR/Bozak IS decent production, but he was producing at a 94 point pace with Kadri

Yeah, I have already pointed out the for Bozak and JVR their GF/60 went up without Marner and their GA/60 went down with down without Marner.

People talk about the change with Marner in his last 33 games of the regular season when he was with Kadri, but JVR had as many 5v5 points in those final 33 games (when no longer playing with Marner) as he did in the first 49 (when usually playing with Marner).

There is no evidence that Marner was being held back by JVR and Bozak.

Nobody is saying Marner was being held back from JVR/Bozak. They're saying he had less QoT than Nylander.

 

[Notsince67]

Which they did? If they truely cared, they would've put Chara/McAvoy/Bergeron/Marchand/Pastrnak on them.

Not exactly a tough concept to grasp.

Did you see Bergeron and marchand on that line? You wanna see more?

 

[Leafs1993]

Everyone knows Nylander Marner and Matthews are on the same team right?

 

[MyBudJT]

Everyone knows Nylander Marner and Matthews are on the same team right?

lol

I think its fun to debate, but it seems like some take it too personally.

 

[hamzarocks]

Marner will be 3rd with nylander 4th. Both get 70-75 points. Matthews and tavares go over ppg. Kadri gets low 60s

 

[Battle Lin]

nylander is so talented and skilled, up there among the young players, and hes not even in our top 3 in offense

 

[lovemyleafs]

Marker stands to be a real highlight of this coming season.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Pretty obvious who the mindless Matthews fan boys are in this forum.

I've probably watched in excess of 2000 leaf games in my life. Only in recent years have I had to witness this type of Kardashian type culture permeate into hockey. It is such a shame. To much time in mama's basement with a video game and not enough on an ice rink. I really doubt you even know what you are seeing when you watch a game.

Watch a game? I just look the data up on MS Excel after like a real fan