Tomas Tatar

[BinCookin]

Why is everyone trying to take a guess what he will produce right now with only like 25 games played?

If you where gonna guess at his potential it is much better to wait 1-2 years into his nhl career. Taking a guess now doesn't mean anything until he has played in the league long enough to fully become accostumed to it.

Kinda just like how everyone is in love with mantha's production and thinks he will be a nhl superstar because he is 19 or so and 6'4'' 210 lbs playing against 16-20 year olds. No one has any ****ing idea how his game will translate to pro leagues and our just crapping out of there mouths hoping that if enough **** gets thrown something hits and sticks to the wall.

I agree that our fellow HFBoards posters really like Mantha.

As per always… most look to Mantha as a sure thing superstar.

This is far from the truth why?

1) 6'4'' in a league of kids… he should put up better than regular numbers… lets see him do this in the AHL let alone the NHL.

2) QMJHL notoriously has high scoring players. Really big numbers are normal in this league. Mantha is on top, but look at the other names after him, there are at least 20 players with more than a PPG game. Mantha is at 2PPG (73pts in 32 GP). Thats all nice, but if you look at history of QMJHL there are a heck of a lot of goals in this league.. maybe the nets are bigger or no one plays defence. I don't know. That being said. He is producing similarly to Jonathon Druin which is a great thing.

I try to temper my expectations.

It is nice to get a goal scorer, and a big winger as opposed to our standard <6' player. Lets hope he makes the NHL. AFTER he plays 20 games in the NHL. Then I reserve the right to get really excited about him. Right now Mantha is at LEAST 2 years away from even coming to camp i think.

 

[GoAwayDanCleary]

Why is everyone trying to take a guess what he will produce right now with only like 25 games played?

If you where gonna guess at his potential it is much better to wait 1-2 years into his nhl career. Taking a guess now doesn't mean anything until he has played in the league long enough to fully become accostumed to it.

Kinda just like how everyone is in love with mantha's production and thinks he will be a nhl superstar because he is 19 or so and 6'4'' 210 lbs playing against 16-20 year olds. No one has any ****ing idea how his game will translate to pro leagues and our just crapping out of there mouths hoping that if enough **** gets thrown something hits and sticks to the wall.

Its called speculating/predicting. We see how he performs at a certain age and level, and we develop an idea of what type of player he's going to be.

 

[BinCookin]

As for Tatar.

I think Tatar will be a quality 2nd line player for the DRW in 2 years from now.

55-60 Pts would be more than enough to think he has hit all his expectations and dreams.

If he can score more than that… GRAVY!!!! (Lets not count on it.. but no one can predict a PPG player drafted late).

I can say this though. Tatar is not the product of Z and D. Bertuzzi plays well with them, but not without. Same with many other forwards. Tatar makes his own chances. And that my friends is why he is a very valuable guy. Even if, he only produces 2nd line numbers. The point is, he can produce this with Z + D on the top line.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

So his minutes and role has peaked is what you're saying? I think he takes over a Johan Franzen type of role. The #4 or so offensive forward. He's consistent too, which is a bonus. I don't ever see Tatar being a top 2 forward on this team, but I think he can absolutely get up there in points. He may very well be our most agressive offensive player. I like that he goes in the middle of the ice, and drives the net. Zetterberg is afraid of the middle of teh ice or something and seems to fall in love with that backhand shot.

Those are solid numbers, but he's gonig to have an absolute peak year. That one year that absolutely stands out.

If he does it will be just like Hudler and Kozlov where it comes on a bottom basement team, so I pray his 90 point season isn't coming here. I don't know why you get so mad about those comparisons they are actually pretty good players, just not in line with some of your personal projections for Tatar.

But make no mistake offensively Hudler is quite a bit better than Tatar to date. Tatar has more speed, better board play and is more willing to shoot. He doesn't pass the puck as well, doesn't actually have a better shot (Hudler just never used his enough), offensive vision and positional understanding than Hudler. Hudler is a really good offensive player, we are talking about a guy that hit 96 points in the AHL, was a point a game player in the KHL, had a high-mark of 57 points on the third line in Detroit and is near a ppg player with Calgary right now.

The fact we call him Hudler with speed, really isn't all that fair because Hudler with speed is a dynamite player, an all-star caliber player. Tatar doesn't have those kind of offensive skills.

He is an absolute keeper second liner though, should hit between 50-65 points and something worth watching is does his personality and the way he plays the game lend itself to being a big time playoff guy. We have seen him impress in the AHL playoffs and WC so he is starting to have a feeling of a big moment guy. So if he never hits the ppg status something he couldn't do in the AHL mind you, the back-end gain of how he might play in the playoffs makes not care about that one iota.

I also don't think he has the playmaking upside you're talking about. It isn't weakness, but he will be encouraged to continue being a shoot first player and he does that better than dishing the puck. You need that too, if he wants to morph into a playmaker I think his value goes down a little, we need him to keep being what he has been to this point in his hockey career.

 

[Frk It]

If Tatar can gain 10lbs of muscle and not lose any skating ability then I see him being a 2nd liner that plays 2nd PP unit. I would love for him to play a good defensive game and safe in the D zone also. I see his point production around 50-60 per season. I don't think he ever gets good defensively and smart wth the puck, but he is still young.

I don't think he needs to gain weight. He's a very solid 185 lbs. That's a good weight for his height. Most guys in the league that are 5'10 are about that weight.

Nyquist could stand to gain 10 lbs. He's 185 lbs also, but he's the same height as Datsyuk and Z. But I think both guys will get a little stronger.

Side note. Jarnkrok is listed at 6'0" 188 lbs now. I wonder if that's accurate? He sure doesn't look that.

 

[SimplySolace]

1) 6'4'' in a league of kids… he should put up better than regular numbers… lets see him do this in the AHL let alone the NHL.

Exactly. There are kids that have scored 50 goals in the Q before but they were 5'10" or so an ultimately couldn't transfer their skills to the higher leagues (or whatever reason for each player). The point is that he has the size at 6'5" and skills to continue his success.

2) QMJHL notoriously has high scoring players. Really big numbers are normal in this league. Mantha is on top, but look at the other names after him, there are at least 20 players with more than a PPG game. Mantha is at 2PPG (73pts in 32 GP). Thats all nice, but if you look at history of QMJHL there are a heck of a lot of goals in this league.. maybe the nets are bigger or no one plays defence. I don't know. That being said. He is producing similarly to Jonathon Druin which is a great thing.

As it has been pointed out previously, the Q isn't even the highest scoring league in the CHL. As of 12/12:

QMJHL - 2,000 goals (18 teams)
OHL - 2,236 goals (20 teams)
WHL - 2,342 (22 teams)

For the bolded part, you're contradicting your own point. You can't diminish Mantha's accomplishments when he is producing the same as Drouin and is 6" taller.

Here's a quote from the prospects board, he's on pace (63+69=132) to be the highest scorer since Radulov/Crosby.

Top scorers in the Q the last couple of seasons:

2012-13 Ben Duffy 110
2011-12 Yann Gourde 124
2010-11 Philip-Michael Devos 114
2009-10 Sean Couturier 96
2008-09 Yannick Riendeau 126
2007-08 Mathieu Perreault 114
2006-07 Francois Bouchard 125
2005-06 Alexander Radulov 152
2004-05 Sidney Crosby 168
2003-04 Sidney Crosby 135

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Time for someone to throw up the list of guys that Mantha is performing like in the QMJHL in terms of goals and points. You can bag on the league, which by the way has closed the gap in a huge way lately in terms of that discussion of the CHL (just look at the Subway Series Results this year and the last Three Memorial Cup Champions) but the list of people that are accomplishing what he has are at the very least aside from I think one or two names extremely solid NHL contributors. With well over half being NHL All-Stars and three or four Franchise players if I remember right over the last 30 years.

He is keeping very heady company any way you slice it with how he is playing. It isn't just being old or big, he is flat out dominant right now, and his being old just means he is going to be in professional hockey ahead of some of the other guys like next year when a 6'4" 220lbs Frédérik Gauthier is in the QMJHL.

I like drafting these fall/early Winter guys. I think it has helped Jurco's developmental curve a ton. It's an interesting strategy since we don't take guys directly from Major Junior to the NHL, get the older ones and get them to the AHL faster than a lot of their draft peers.

 

[SimplySolace]

Time for someone to throw up the list of guys that Mantha is performing like in the QMJHL in terms of goals and points. You can bag on the league, which by the way has closed the gap in a huge way lately in terms of that discussion of the CHL (just look at the Subway Series Results this year and the last Three Memorial Cup Champions) but the list of people that are accomplishing what he has are at the very least aside from I think one or two names extremely solid NHL contributors. With well over half being NHL All-Stars and three or four Franchise players if I remember right over the last 30 years.

This?

Guys that were drafted that put up 50 goals in the CHL the first year they were draft eligible since 2001-2002(there may have been one or two that put up 50 the first year they were eligible and then weren't drafted although that sounds unlikely it isn't something I checked):

Anthony Mantha
Jeff Skinner
John Tavares
Steven Stamkos
Patrick Kane
Sidney Crosby
Joffrey Lupul

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I don't think he needs to gain weight. He's a very solid 185 lbs. That's a good weight for his height. Most guys in the league that are 5'10 are about that weight.

Nyquist could stand to gain 10 lbs. He's 185 lbs also, but he's the same height as Datsyuk and Z. But I think both guys will get a little stronger.

Side note. Jarnkrok is listed at 6'0" 188 lbs now. I wonder if that's accurate? He sure doesn't look that.

Jarnkrok absolutely doesn't look that big in person, but he does have a frame that you expect packing more weight onto can happen.

My guess is Tatar will probably gain another 5 or so pounds he is a pretty fit guy already don't see ton of weight being packed onto his frame.

By the way Jim Nill at his presser in Dallas and others have essentially eluded to the fact we lie our butt off about Zetterberg's weight, that he is somewhere in the 170s in actuality. Not sure about it but enough people have flippantly thrown out him being underweight but look at how he protects the puck that we might just be lying about it. Giroux's listed weight is always something I find interesting he plays a lot bigger than that. Ferraro actually lost weight to help get his career back on track. It is how you play with it and Tatar plays well with the weight he has currently so it isn't something that concerns me all that much.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

This?

That is one of them, I have seen it out there with just the QMJHL, the list of guys is impressive to say the least.

The company he keeps regardless of his September birthday are a substantial list of guys both in his own league and across the CHL. As mentioned the guys that have failed have either obvious skating problems, size problems or encountered a litany of injury issues.

You want to be careful on pumping up expectations on a guy like Mantha, but we really were a perfect fit for him. The issues he has can be pounded into his game at the AHL level and he has a skill set we desperately need.

Guy has been held without a point in what 1 game this season? His biggest question marks was his age which I have found silly from day one especially in an organization that likes to bring prospects along slower and compete level which almost everyone says has gotten phenomenally better this season.

We also aren't an organization that will likely try to turn him into a more physical player something that might actually hurt Mantha's development. Not saying we won't demand a little more physicality, it is important to pro hockey but we are unlikely to obsess about it and that is something a lot of Mantha critics get lost in. He doesn't need to be overly physical, he does use his size to protect the puck and pull power moves even if he doesn't run guys through the boards all the time.

 

[sully6one]

I don't think he needs to gain weight. He's a very solid 185 lbs. That's a good weight for his height. Most guys in the league that are 5'10 are about that weight.

Nyquist could stand to gain 10 lbs. He's 185 lbs also, but he's the same height as Datsyuk and Z. But I think both guys will get a little stronger.

Side note. Jarnkrok is listed at 6'0" 188 lbs now. I wonder if that's accurate? He sure doesn't look that.

Tatar gets bounced off the puck pretty easily. If he had that extra weight he'd be better at protecting the puck. I don't care if most 5'10" guys are 160lbs, Tatar needs to be heavier and stronger still. Nyquist needs to get stronger more than gain weight. Both of these will slowly come as they do for every young player. I'd like both to try for 3-5lbs an offseason for a couple years.

 

[SimplySolace]

That is one of them, I have seen it out there with just the QMJHL, the list of guys is impressive to say the least.

I don't care about the whole late birthday crap. He's played the same amount of seasons as the rest of his draft class and he is only 3 months older than the average age or something.

What I like most about Mantha is that he acknowledges his weaknesses and knows that he can be better. He mentioned it in one video interview.

Back to the quotes you were searching for, this is the one. This quote and the other I posted make me very excited.

Since 1980, only 18 guys have scored 60 goals per 80 games, adjusted for league scoring level by normalizing to 8 goals per game, in the Q in their first draft-eligible season:

Mario 121
Crosby 107
Lafontaine 88
Briere 80
Tanguay 79

Drouin 77
Hawerchuk 77
P. Turgeon 74
Mantha 68
MacKinnon 67

Lecavalier 65
Carson 65
Bernier 64
Brassard 64
Gelinas 64

Daigle 62
Huberdeau 61
PM Bouchard 61

 

[odin1981]

1. It's 25 games + 18 games last year.

2. It's not really "guessing" at someone's potential if you wait 1-2 years. At that point, it's just stating what their level is. Not very many players just take another step like that in the NHL. You can reasonably extrapolate based on 40+ NHL games and multiple AHL seasons.

3. Mantha is much younger and hasn't played pro. It's completely different trying to guess his ceiling at this point than it is for someone who's played on the Griffins for what, 4 years? And has actually already played 40 some odd NHL games? How can you even compare those two situations?

On point #2 my contention is that any young player there most important years are years 2 and 3 respectively. They have a handle on what flys in the league as well as seeing there work habits in the offseason and such so that you actually see a separation in skill and ability from there peers.

You cannot even make a guess at where he will be at the start of the 16-17 season. I like that he has a drive and that he is hungry for results but that doesn't account for what will happen over the next 720 days or so of his professional career. His development will hinge on the long run.


On point #3 Guess who our other 50 goal former junior prospect is? He is in Toledo. Trvdon hasn't taken off like a rocket ship either. Of course now he is playing against people regularly who are similiar in height and weight. Granted he has had injury troubles past 18 months or so but it just goes to show you that numbers in junior don't mean ****.

Granted some might say I take a very conservative approach with prospects. But what they do prior to the ahl/sel/khl doesn't mean a damn thing. Everyone who plays in the league tore the **** out of some junior league on the way up. Hell even daniel ****ing cleary and kirk maltby where 50 goal scorers in junior.

Until you get 1-2 years of viewing in the "pro" leagues you cannot legitamitely assertain how a kid projects. Unless of course a prospect kicks the living **** outta a league that forces you to call em up.

But even then that is only 1/2 the way there. Cause year 2 and 3 of the nhl is when they will show what they will resemble for the rest of there career.

 

[Henkka]

On point #2 my contention is that any young player there most important years are years 2 and 3 respectively. They have a handle on what flys in the league as well as seeing there work habits in the offseason and such so that you actually see a separation in skill and ability from there peers.

You cannot even make a guess at where he will be at the start of the 16-17 season. I like that he has a drive and that he is hungry for results but that doesn't account for what will happen over the next 720 days or so of his professional career. His development will hinge on the long run.


On point #3 Guess who our other 50 goal former junior prospect is? He is in Toledo. Trvdon hasn't taken off like a rocket ship either. Of course now he is playing against people regularly who are similiar in height and weight. Granted he has had injury troubles past 18 months or so but it just goes to show you that numbers in junior don't mean ****.

Granted some might say I take a very conservative approach with prospects. But what they do prior to the ahl/sel/khl doesn't mean a damn thing. Everyone who plays in the league tore the **** out of some junior league on the way up. Hell even daniel ****ing cleary and kirk maltby where 50 goal scorers in junior.

Until you get 1-2 years of viewing in the "pro" leagues you cannot legitamitely assertain how a kid projects. Unless of course a prospect kicks the living **** outta a league that forces you to call em up.

But even then that is only 1/2 the way there. Cause year 2 and 3 of the nhl is when they will show what they will resemble for the rest of there career.

Funny thing in Mantha is that should we really give a **** how he scores as a junior? His toolbox overall is better than we have had for a while. Big man who can skate.

His scoring is just a bonus. But of course, we'll take it. Better to score than not to score.

In general, people are too point-scoring oriented in here. Hockey is a lot more than just scoring.

 

[Vladdy84]

Tatar gets bounced off the puck pretty easily. If he had that extra weight he'd be better at protecting the puck. I don't care if most 5'10" guys are 160lbs, Tatar needs to be heavier and stronger still. Nyquist needs to get stronger more than gain weight. Both of these will slowly come as they do for every young player. I'd like both to try for 3-5lbs an offseason for a couple years.

Not really. He's been strong on his skates. He does need to perhaps add a little muscle. It's not like he's falling all over the place. And unlike other players on this team, when he gets knocked down he gets right back up in an instant.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

On point #3 Guess who our other 50 goal former junior prospect is? He is in Toledo. Trvdon hasn't taken off like a rocket ship either. Of course now he is playing against people regularly who are similiar in height and weight. Granted he has had injury troubles past 18 months or so but it just goes to show you that numbers in junior don't mean ****.

What prospect of ours that has scored 50 goals is in the ECHL because I don't see a single one there.

Granted some might say I take a very conservative approach with prospects. But what they do prior to the ahl/sel/khl doesn't mean a damn thing. Everyone who plays in the league tore the **** out of some junior league on the way up. Hell even daniel ****ing cleary and kirk maltby where 50 goal scorers in junior.

When Cleary & Maltby scored 50 goals the leagues far higher scoring leagues. In Maltby's year there were 7 50 goal scorers in the OHL & 23 40 goal scorers. When Cleary had 50 goals there were 4 50 goal scorers. When Mantha scored his 50 goals he was the only one in the Q to get 50. The othing is that Maltby's 50 came in his last year of junior Mantha's came in his 3rd year, though it was his draft year.

Also keep in mind that Cleary was projected to be a top line forward & IIRC the year before his draft he was considered to be top 50 material. There's no problem with being behind Cleary in a junior career as he had quite an impressive career.

 

[odin1981]

Thought Marek Trvdon scored 50 in his draft year could be wrong though maybe he hit 45+ but didn't hit 50.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Thought Marek Trvdon scored 50 in his draft year could be wrong though maybe he hit 45+ but didn't hit 50.

he scored 6 goals on his draft year.

 

[RayMoonDoh]

Thought Marek Trvdon scored 50 in his draft year could be wrong though maybe he hit 45+ but didn't hit 50.

Also he missed nearly 2 full years of prime development with shoulder and blood clot issues. So i dont see how his low stock should reflect on mantha or anyone elses.

 

[drw02]

Funny thing in Mantha is that should we really give a **** how he scores as a junior? His toolbox overall is better than we have had for a while. Big man who can skate.

His scoring is just a bonus. But of course, we'll take it. Better to score than not to score.

In general, people are too point-scoring oriented in here. Hockey is a lot more than just scoring.

I agree with this. When you watch Mantha play you can see he has an extremely elite skill set especially for a kid his size. I'm not worried at all about him transferring those skills to the pro game. I don't see anyway (besides injuries) that he doesn't at minimum become a serviceable top 6 NHL'er.

 

[Chance on Chance]

I'd say Tatar in the 50-65 point range with more goals the assist and a couple 35 goal years for his max potential

 

[XxTatar21SaucexX]

I'm not putting any numerical value on him right now. He should be one of our go to players in a few years. We'll see

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Thought Marek Trvdon scored 50 in his draft year could be wrong though maybe he hit 45+ but didn't hit 50.

As the President of the Marek Tvrdon fan club, I can tell you that he scored less than 50 goals total in the WHL. High mark of 31 for a season, after his draft year. Now he only played around 90 games and I think it was 45 or 46 in terms of goals so one every other game, but he missed a ton of time with injury and didn't get near the numbers you have stated. Was over a point a game player, hope he can really turn into something, has tons of skill but has missed a lot of time. We are probably the right organization for him as we will give him a lot of time to get back on his feet.

50 in the draft year is a big part of what we are talking about anyway and that is quite rare since the turn of the century. Someday soon people are going to realize they need to adjust some of their views on Major Junior scoring, the numbers still can look earth shattering at times, but it is happening in a more competitive environment these days and it isn't quite like it was in the past.

 

[Johnz96*]

As the President of the Marek Tvrdon fan club, I can tell you that he scored less than 50 goals total in the WHL. High mark of 31 for a season, after his draft year. Now he only played around 90 games and I think it was 45 or 46 in terms of goals so one every other game, but he missed a ton of time with injury and didn't get near the numbers you have stated. Was over a point a game player, hope he can really turn into something, has tons of skill but has missed a lot of time. We are probably the right organization for him as we will give him a lot of time to get back on his feet.

50 in the draft year is a big part of what we are talking about anyway and that is quite rare since the turn of the century. Someday soon people are going to realize they need to adjust some of their views on Major Junior scoring, the numbers still can look earth shattering at times, but it is happening in a more competitive environment these days and it isn't quite like it was in the past.

Scoring in all hockey leagues has dropped significantly in the 90s. Bettman allowed the goalie equipment to get much bigger for the sake of parity restricting talent and skill and giving weaker teams a better chance of winning games.

 

[ebis]

Tatar's father died today. Sad that he won't see Tomas play in the Olympics.

I guess he will come home to Slovakia for a few days, I can't imagine the club not letting him...