LeBrun: Tomas Hertl not likely to sign extension with the Sharks

[Pierce Hawthorne]

IMO the two most likely trades in recent years that compare to a potential Hertl trade would be Taylor Hall last year and Mark Stone to Vegas a couple years ago.


The Hall one matches up because that was an example of a pure UFA Rental deal and also one where he was able to use his contract and movement clause to dictate where he wanted to go. Hertl will be able to do a lot of the same here. That said I would expect San Jose to get a 1st at least out of the deal because IMO Hertl as a Center is more valuable then Hall as a wing. A 1st + B/C prospect + maybe a depth roster piece depending on the strength of the prospect, is what I'd expect here.



The Stone deal should be what a Hertl trade with an extension agreed upon already will look like. Stone got back a true blue chip prospect in that deal, as well as a 2nd round pick and a depth player. If Hertl is able to negotiate a deal with the team trading for him I'd expect a similar return along the lines of a Blue Chip prospect, a 1st or 2nd round pick, and then a 3rd piece that's mostly just a roster player reaplcement from San Jose.

 

[Sticktape]

He probably took one look at San Jose on CapFriendly and made his decision.

 

[Henkka]

Hertl would be nice between Vrana and Zadina.

 

[crassbonanza]

More of a joke about how the same talking points are repeated over and over in these Sharks-related threads. And the part about them having one of the worst prospect pools in the league is just flat out wrong.

I mean, they definitely do have a prospect pool near the bottom half of the league. Most rankings I have seen have them in the 20's. The issue with the joke though, is that those points are relevant to the conversation. Why wouldn't those points be brought up?

 

[crassbonanza]

I think your sarcasm detector is in need of repairs.

Maybe it does, because I completely missed any sarcasm. Are you saying that you agree with me saying that the Sharks have a poor prospect pool and are likely far off from competing?

 

[Hasbro]

Ah yes the ones you like are the correct ones.

Vader is certainly an outlier.

 

[Chips]

Look at the Pacific and you'll understand quickly why that simply isn't true. The division is weak and the Sharks have some young talent stepping in. If they get just decent goaltending, they will be competing for a playoff spot.

Seriously, competing. Not Oilers/Flames (of a few seasons ago) competing


Burns needs to stave off old age another year, Karlsson needs a good bounce back, Meier Couture and Hertl all need to stay healthy and the former two need to regain their old form from a few years ago, and they’ll all need to do that over the duration of Hertls contract, or ideally until he starts his own decline which shouldn’t be soon. and they’ll still need depth.

Their goaltending is certainly improved over the last duo which I assume will make a noticeable difference, but they’re still not exactly good

 

[CupInSIX]

Even with a shortlist, I'm going to guess that bidding will be fierce. A (what will be a late) first + an top-notch prospect + a solid-yet-unspectacular-depth player would be my guess. From the Avs, something like 1st + Newhook + Kaut.

Nah that's not happening.

Look at what Arizona paid to get Hall, and maybe subtract a piece or two from that.

 

[Seph]

Vader is certainly an outlier.

Yeah, he's in a galaxy far far away from the others.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Seriously, competing. Not Oilers/Flames (of a few seasons ago) competing


Burns needs to stave off old age another year, Karlsson needs a good bounce back, Meier Couture and Hertl all need to stay healthy and the former two need to regain their old form from a few years ago, and they’ll all need to do that over the duration of Hertls contract, or ideally until he starts his own decline which shouldn’t be soon. and they’ll still need depth.

Their goaltending is certainly improved over the last duo which I assume will make a noticeable difference, but they’re still not exactly good

Nobody would seriously consider Montreal competing before this season or even when they made the playoffs but they made the Finals and had a shot. Don't talk to me about seriously competing when we just had something like that happen. The Kings won a Stanley Cup as an 8 seed. Sometimes you just need to get there and see what you have.

 

[Patty Ice]

Are you saying that you agree with me

Not at all. Just noting your lack of comprehension of intent.

 

[Hasbro]

Nobody would seriously consider Montreal competing before this season or even when they made the playoffs but they made the Finals and had a shot. Don't talk to me about seriously competing when we just had something like that happen. The Kings won a Stanley Cup as an 8 seed. Sometimes you just need to get there and see what you have.

They’ll have to convince Hertl that would be the case.

 

[Chips]

Nobody would seriously consider Montreal competing before this season or even when they made the playoffs but they made the Finals and had a shot. Don't talk to me about seriously competing when we just had something like that happen. The Kings won a Stanley Cup as an 8 seed. Sometimes you just need to get there and see what you have.

How often does that happen (let alone that they win) and what are the chance it would happen even twice with this team when at the age there core is at, with the eh prospect pool, after a certain point the decline of their good players will continue


Considering the Habs wouldn’t even have made the playoffs in a normal year last season or the previous how they played, and were one game from elimination against the kings of choking, I’d still comfortably bet Montreal isn’t going to seriously compete for the cup this season. Shit happens. That’s true, but it’s an awful selling point.

a key part of my post was the fact you’re expecting Hertl to sign for years, not one season. He’s going to think about the medium and long term future rather than just one more season.


Some players are content to not win a cup and stay with a city well past its glory days and maybe Hertl will, but his non committal comment on the subject however many weeks ago certainly sounds like there’s a distinct possibility he’s out. I don’t understand why sharks fans have to act like the mere suggestion is a personal slight. This has been a super touchy subject this season

 

[Boondock]

1 on this page already

So what you're saying is people should avoid the elephant in the room and discuss all the other reasons Hertl might not sign with the Sharks? Those unoriginal points are the reasons he probably won't re-sign. Would you prefer comments like -
"I heard he wore Atlanta Thrasher PJ's when he was younger so he will obviously sign with the Jets"
"His Moms nail lady once had a dog that she rescued from Columbia so he'll sign with the Columbus Blue Jackets"
"My sources tell me he was seen in bar with a much older women. Odds are he signs with the Prince George Cougars of the WHL"

 

[BringTheReign]

Would love to see the Avalanche load up and break the bank for Hertl. 1st + Newhook + ???

Would also be fun to see him go to Winnipeg if PLD doesn't bounce back. WPG has made some sizeable trade deadline adds over the years, and PLD would help the Sharks get younger while letting him play in a market with less scrutiny.

I'll now duck for cover in case Avs and Jets fans are mad about this because they don't understand how good Hertl is.

 

[Boondock]

And EPRinkside rated #14, and Byron Bader ranked #5.

Maybe perhaps rankings are varied?

Can you honestly say you think Bader is even in the ballpark with that ranking?

 

[bernmeister]

The smart move for SJ would be to sign him long term close to top dollar, but no NMC and limited trade clause in return.
He will give them a shot to turn it around quickly.
If that is not apparent, he gets moved for a haul, more if he is $ retained.

Greatly appreciate what he brings, but NYR cannot afford at this pt to sacrifice young depth which is what Sharks would understandably want.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Can you honestly say you think Bader is even in the ballpark with that ranking?

If the ballpark is in the top 50% of the league versus the bottom 50%.

 

[CanadienShark]

Does Lebrun ever break Sharks news? I'm taking this with a grain of salt. Hertl by all accounts likes SJ. If we do have an abysmal season, sure, explore TDL options, but priority #1 should be finding a deal he'd be comfortable with.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

How often does that happen (let alone that they win) and what are the chance it would happen even twice with this team when at the age there core is at, with the eh prospect pool, after a certain point the decline of their good players will continue


Considering the Habs wouldn’t even have made the playoffs in a normal year last season or the previous how they played, and were one game from elimination against the kings of choking, I’d still comfortably bet Montreal isn’t going to seriously compete for the cup this season. Shit happens. That’s true, but it’s an awful selling point.

a key part of my post was the fact you’re expecting Hertl to sign for years, not one season. He’s going to think about the medium and long term future rather than just one more season.


Some players are content to not win a cup and stay with a city well past its glory days and maybe Hertl will, but his non committal comment on the subject however many weeks ago certainly sounds like there’s a distinct possibility he’s out. I don’t understand why sharks fans have to act like the mere suggestion is a personal slight. This has been a super touchy subject this season

Competing means competitive not being a favorite. Some guys prefer that but typically a guy investing seven or eight years wants both the money and competing as a playoff team. If it comes down to the Sharks giving him eight years and a better team only wanting to give five or six years, that's risking millions for something you're not guaranteed anywhere in this league.

 

[Shultzyfeelinirie25]

What about Zadina?

 

[crassbonanza]

Not at all. Just noting your lack of comprehension of intent.

I think I understood the intent. The intent seemed to be Sharks fans complaining that people mention bad contracts and the poor prospect pool when discussing the team. I pointed out that those two issues are relevant to the discussion so complaining about that doesn't make sense. If I missed the intent, please explain it.

 

[themelkman]

IMO the two most likely trades in recent years that compare to a potential Hertl trade would be Taylor Hall last year and Mark Stone to Vegas a couple years ago.


The Hall one matches up because that was an example of a pure UFA Rental deal and also one where he was able to use his contract and movement clause to dictate where he wanted to go. Hertl will be able to do a lot of the same here. That said I would expect San Jose to get a 1st at least out of the deal because IMO Hertl as a Center is more valuable then Hall as a wing. A 1st + B/C prospect + maybe a depth roster piece depending on the strength of the prospect, is what I'd expect here.



The Stone deal should be what a Hertl trade with an extension agreed upon already will look like. Stone got back a true blue chip prospect in that deal, as well as a 2nd round pick and a depth player. If Hertl is able to negotiate a deal with the team trading for him I'd expect a similar return along the lines of a Blue Chip prospect, a 1st or 2nd round pick, and then a 3rd piece that's mostly just a roster player reaplcement from San Jose.

Ive said this for like a year and just get torn into every time. I think you are totally on track and the trade is going to seriously depend on a lot

 

[themelkman]

What about Zadina?

Doesnt do much. If Hertl opens his lists to a team as bad as Detroit, every team is on the table so the ask is probably for a blue chip guy.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Would love to see the Avalanche load up and break the bank for Hertl. 1st + Newhook + ???

Would also be fun to see him go to Winnipeg if PLD doesn't bounce back. WPG has made some sizeable trade deadline adds over the years, and PLD would help the Sharks get younger while letting him play in a market with less scrutiny.

I'll now duck for cover in case Avs and Jets fans are mad about this because they don't understand how good Hertl is.

For Hertl with an extension? Sure, I think that's a fair package, though personally I'd much rather hang onto Newhook and move one of our LHD.

But without an extension he's not getting a prospect of that tier. There's simply no precedent of a rental ever returning a prospect as high end as what Newhook is(He's a borderline Top 10-15 prospect across the league).


As an Avs fan, without an extension the most I'd be going is something like 2023 1st + B Prospect + Roster forward.


Something like 1st + Martin Kaut + Tyson Jost. For an extended Hertl in the ~7.5M range, I'd offer up Byram honestly.

Ive said this for like a year and just get torn into every time. I think you are totally on track and the trade is going to seriously depend on a lot

Yeah it's gonna depend on a few things. Mostly stemming from Hertl. As unfortunate as it is for the Sharks, he ultimately holds pretty much all the cards right now with that 3-team ntc.

For all we know he could be quite content to play out this season in San Jose, then have free reigns to choose exactly where he wants to go in the summer and let the UFA bidding war commence. So he could put like Arizona, Detroit, and Buffalo on his list of teams he'd accept a trade to knowing they would all basically have no interest in adding him.

He could also do something like that, and then force his way to one specific team, by telling the Sharks he will only accept a trade to X other team not on that list.

Or, he makes things a lot easier for the Sharks and offers up a list of like 10-12 contender sort of teams that he'd approve a trade too. And he could make things even better for them by opening up to an extension from certain teams as part of the deal.

Ultimately I think his range of value could honestly be anywhere from that of a 2nd + C level prospect like Hall got when he went to Boston.... Or he could honestly get something like a 1st + A tier prospect + solid roster player, if he's willing to sign an extension with 6-8 teams and they all get into a bidding war.


He's a phenomenal player that would put so many teams up a tier from where they are now. A team like Colorado or Vegas go from Top tier cup contenders to the heavy favorites to win. Someone like Winnipeg or Boston go from dark horse contenders firmly into that contender tier. Or teams like LA, Nashville, Montreal go from bubble playoff teams to darkhorse contenders. All from just adding one player.


From the Avs, for an extended Hertl on say a ~6x7.5M extension, I'd offer up Byram or Girard.



How highly do the Sharks value Ferraro right now? How close is something like Byram + Jost for Hertl + Ferraro?