Player Discussion Tom Wilson - Part 2

[txpd]

He missed 18 of those 24 games. His personal pace is 1.5 ppg which would project to 96 point pace over the course of his possible 64 games this season which I believe is a more accurate method. Nobody thinks he'll maintain this pace but it would have the benefit of watching the entire HF main boards completely lose their collective ****.

Well...duh. My point is that his hot start has almost made up for the games he missed. Going into this season 20 goals and 40pts would have been great.

 

[Sam Spade]

I remember being so pissed when McPhee took Wilson over Teravainen when Teuvo was still available at the #16 pick.
(I mean can you imagine a draft where you get Forsberg and Teravainen in the same draft? Especially considering the Caps
were so strong to being with? Insane). But I couldn't be more happy for being wrong.

You and me both. If that draft thread is still around you will see my posts of excitement that he was available when the Caps were picking.

I mean, Teravainen put up 64 points last year. He's been pretty darn good since arriving in Carolina.

I like Terravainen for sure but do you think he is a player that pushes the Caps over the top for a Cup? Cause Wilson, without a doubt, was that player in my mind (with Kuzy being tied with Willy for me).

 

[kicksavedave]

You and me both. If that draft thread is still around you will see my posts of excitement that he was available when the Caps were picking.





I like Terravainen for sure but do you think he is a player that pushes the Caps over the top for a Cup? Cause Wilson, without a doubt, was that player in my mind (with Kuzy being tied with Willy for me).

The commentators, including PeeAir, were all effusive over this pick, immediately comparing him to Lucic, and lamenting how badly the Flyers were going to be disappointed by not getting TW at 20. They also talked about how he had 9 goals but 7 more in the playoffs, where have we seen that sort of clutch stepping up before?

As bad as GMGM botched the Forsberg trade, this draft could have been maybe the best ever in franchise history, but its worked out pretty darn nicely as it is. Great pick at 16!!!!

 

[Fallschirmyager]

Well...duh. My point is that his hot start has almost made up for the games he missed. Going into this season 20 goals and 40pts would have been great.

Duh.....Your original statement was too vague to draw that conclusion.

 

[Calicaps]

You and me both. If that draft thread is still around you will see my posts of excitement that he was available when the Caps were picking.

Man I love watching that now. If I was a more vindictive person, I'd start a Big Bad Tom retrospective mains thread, just sayin'.

 

[txpd]

Duh.....Your original statement was too vague to draw that conclusion.

His hot start has him pacing for at the end of the season at 20 goals and 40 pts. He has 6 goals in 8 games. I think anyone thinks that is going to continue. But 40pts? sure.

That is vague?

 

[Roshi]

I liked the pick from the start. Ever since Willys name was called by McPhee he has been my nr2 favourite in Caps. In case someone still havent noticed.

Was expecting Teravainen too though, or Scott Laughton. We had been having problems in the middle and those two guys were possible solutions to that in 2012. We were using guys like Ribeiro and Grabovski as gap-holes on the 2nd line C spot and Kuzy was still just a project. But this was the case where drafting bpa (in our opinion) before position ended up being quite a smart move. Not taking anything away from TT, he is doing good things in Carolina now, but wouldnt trade him for Willy in a million years today and wouldnt have done it at any point before today either.

Would be very entertaining to evaluate where he would go in a redraft on other fanbases

It was a weak draft and both our picks (11&16) are atleast top 10 in my books, if not top 5.

 

[Fallschirmyager]

His hot start has him pacing for at the end of the season at 20 goals and 40 pts. He has 6 goals in 8 games. I think anyone thinks that is going to continue. But 40pts? sure.

That is vague?

"Well, 12 points in 24 games has him already on a 40pt pace." No. this is vague. Your clarification is not. His current pace is 6 and 6 in 8 games which is very different than adding the 18 games he hasn't played in. His pace projects out to a ridiculous pace of 48 and 48 over the possible 64 games in his season. Only sustainable by maybe a handful of players in the league of course but it's a nice start to his season. Well worth the contract for at least this 8 games.

 

[um]

His hot start has him pacing for at the end of the season at 20 goals and 40 pts. He has 6 goals in 8 games. I think anyone thinks that is going to continue. But 40pts? sure.

That is vague?

His pace right now is:

66 - 49.5 - 49.5 - 99

 

[artilector]

Wilson's shooting percentage, per rmnb, is 28.6%, so you can safely divide the "wild projections" goals by ~3, and that actually looks like a reasonable number.
On the other hand, I don't see a reason to adjust his assist projections quite as much, so if anything, that's probably the development to get excited about, scoring-wise.

 

[Fallschirmyager]

Wilson's shooting percentage, per rmnb, is 28.6%, so you can safely divide the "wild projections" goals by ~3, and that actually looks like a reasonable number.
On the other hand, I don't see nearly as much of a reason to adjust his assist projections, so if anything, that's probably the development to get excited about, scoring-wise.

The realist in me knows he'll never keep this pace and hopefully end up in the 20-30-50 range. The instigator in me hopes he keeps this pace through his first 20 games so the main boards loses it.

 

[artilector]

The realist in me knows he'll never keep this pace and hopefully end up in the 20-30-50 range. The instigator in me hopes he keeps this pace through his first 20 games so the main boards loses it.

50 pts in 66 games would be fantastic, and seems possible.

 

[txpd]

His pace right now is:

66 - 49.5 - 49.5 - 99

I am not going to argue this. I meant to say that his performance in his 8 games has made up for the lost games to the point he has a 40pt pace on going.

 

[g00n]

Why do we care about his shooting percentage when the question concerning some has been scoring ability? I think we can all agree it has not been due to luck, so he has the skill. If they aren't going in at the same clip he can do like every other player does and just strive for more quality shots.

 

[Hivemind]

Why do we care about his shooting percentage when the question concerning some has been scoring ability? I think we can all agree it has not been due to luck, so he has the skill. If they aren't going in at the same clip he can do like every other player does and just strive for more quality shots.

It's about tempering expectation to reality. Nobody maintains a 28% sh% in the NHL, especially not a player who shot 8% or less for most of his career so far. I think all of us are in agreement that he's going to come back down to earth, we're just hoping that it settles out at around the 11.7% (or a bit higher) that he shot last year. A Wilson that finishes at a 12-15% rate (a good shooting percentage, but within the realm of reason) is a beneficial top 6 asset to have around.

While we're discussing this, another general reminder that Alex Chiasson is shooting like 42% right now. He's not a 40-goal player, either. Some of y'all need to stop gawking at his hot streak like he's some diamond in the rough that got away.

 

[maacoshark]

"Well, 12 points in 24 games has him already on a 40pt pace." No. this is vague. Your clarification is not. His current pace is 6 and 6 in 8 games which is very different than adding the 18 games he hasn't played in. His pace projects out to a ridiculous pace of 48 and 48 over the possible 64 games in his season. Only sustainable by maybe a handful of players in the league of course but it's a nice start to his season. Well worth the contract for at least this 8 games.

You guys keep saying he could possibly play 64 games. He missed 16 games due to his suspension meaning he could play 66 games. He is actually on pace for 99 points through 66 games.

 

[maacoshark]

It's about tempering expectation to reality. Nobody maintains a 28% sh% in the NHL, especially not a player who shot 8% or less for most of his career so far. I think all of us are in agreement that he's going to come back down to earth, we're just hoping that it settles out at around the 11.7% (or a bit higher) that he shot last year. A Wilson that finishes at a 12-15% rate (a good shooting percentage, but within the realm of reason) is a beneficial top 6 asset to have around.

While we're discussing this, another general reminder that Alex Chiasson is shooting like 42% right now. He's not a 40-goal player, either. Some of y'all need to stop gawking at his hot streak like he's some diamond in the rough that got away.

I dont think anyone is saying Chaisson is a diamond in the rough but he is still a decent 2 way player.

 

[kicksavedave]

It's about tempering expectation to reality. Nobody maintains a 28% sh% in the NHL, especially not a player who shot 8% or less for most of his career so far. I think all of us are in agreement that he's going to come back down to earth, we're just hoping that it settles out at around the 11.7% (or a bit higher) that he shot last year. A Wilson that finishes at a 12-15% rate (a good shooting percentage, but within the realm of reason) is a beneficial top 6 asset to have around.

While we're discussing this, another general reminder that Alex Chiasson is shooting like 42% right now. He's not a 40-goal player, either. Some of y'all need to stop gawking at his hot streak like he's some diamond in the rough that got away.

Look, there ain't a whole lot to complain about in Caps land right now, and just about everything GMBM puts his stamp on turns to solid gold so far, so if we're making a big deal about Chaisson going off, its partially sarcasm, not some serious angst about "the one that got away". We aren't naive to think Chaisson would be doing exactly what he's doing on this roster getting small 4th line minutes, but frankly this team could be better off with Chaisson on the 3rd line instead of Bura, where possessions go to die.

 

[artilector]

Why do we care about his shooting percentage when the question concerning some has been scoring ability? I think we can all agree it has not been due to luck, so he has the skill. If they aren't going in at the same clip he can do like every other player does and just strive for more quality shots.

What?

Goal-scoring ability ~= Ability to generate shots * Shot quality * Shooting percentage... (common sense 101)

So basically by definition, if you're discussing goal-scoring ability, you have to take (observed/estimated) shooting percentage into account, otherwise you're talking nonsense. And if you're implying that Wilson can automatically compensate for any drop in shooting percentage (from 28% to 10%, for example) by getting more/better shots, that's absurd, as much as it would be great if Wilson 2.0 came equipped with such a useful mechanism (in addition to the new collision-avoidance limiters).

 

[txpd]

It's about tempering expectation to reality. Nobody maintains a 28% sh% .

What am I missing? Who here is saying Wilson is going to 40 g's this season or anytime? I haven't seen that. I think everyone sees this as a hot streak and not some new normal. That said, his new normal seems very likely to be the qualify top 6 forward that many thought he was not capable of.

 

[Silky mitts]

He’s on a 61 goal pace for 82 games his shooting % is going to be high as are the quality of his shots

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[twabby]

Social media was a mistake. Doxxing can be pretty terrifying.

 

[Hivemind]

Shameful.

 

[Silky mitts]

GMBM regarding taking Backstrom in 2006
"We talked a lot about the top five guys in that draft, and we talked about him being a No. 1 center," said MacLellan, who's been in the Capitals front office for the last 17 years. "There were three legitimate centers (Jonathan Toews, Jordan Staal and Nicklas Backstrom) - and we thought he was a first-line power-play guy, a first-line center. I think we knew what we were getting into all along. We were pretty excited to get to draft him."
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