Toews the new Scott Gomez?

[Shwag33]

I am pretty sure Crosby at the exact time last season had the same situation as Toews. What is wrong with him and is he washed up. Neither player is 30 yet. So atleast for me, I didn't pile on Crosby last year when he was slumping, and I won't for Toews either. I believe and believed both had a lot of quality hockey left in their careers. Crosby is a lesson that history should teach us. I see some similarity in both.

Crosby's slump was like toews version of playing pretty decent.

They aren't even remotely comparable now or in their careers.

 

[Phil68]

Kind of TSN fault as to why people values Toews as top 5 in the world..

 

[Syckle78]

I wanted to dig up this thread. http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2048609 but it was closed.

And use it as a cautionary tale here. When people were questioning whether Crosby still had it. It was only a year ago that Crosby was struggling badly. Now he is the best player in the world again. Seems like decades ago now.

People that are saying Toews is finished, may be premature if the lessons of the Sid example are repeated. People have such short memories. And it would be ironic if both Crosby and Toews went through the identical circumstances and rose above it.

This is the 3rd season in a row toews has been trending down. Crosby struggled for like half a season and everyone knew it was the coach. I'm one of the biggest Crosby haters on the site but I didn't crow once about him struggling because it was obvious he'd storm back.

 

[AD1066]

Crosby's slump was like toews version of playing pretty decent.

They aren't even remotely comparable now or in their careers.

Here is their respective PPGs vs. age, all situations:

Crosby's shortened seasons likely inflated his peak, but still...

 

[Hawkaholic]

This is the 3rd season in a row toews has been trending down. Crosby struggled for like half a season and everyone knew it was the coach. I'm one of the biggest Crosby haters on the site but I didn't crow once about him struggling because it was obvious he'd storm back.

wut?

 

[NjDevsRR]

When I ever read or hear that Zajac is overpaid, I point towards the Toews contract.

 

[SpezDispenser]

I thought he was really strong last night. Noticed him a lot. Missed scoring by inches - one on a beauty of a play where he waited for the puck to go under the crossbar and bunted it just across the top of the net. I understand the concern over his 10.5 million cap hit, but it's not like he's a poor player.

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

I thought he was really strong last night. Noticed him a lot. Missed scoring by inches - one on a beauty of a play where he waited for the puck to go under the crossbar and bunted it just across the top of the net. I understand the concern over his 10.5 million cap hit, but it's not like he's a poor player.

This, if a player plays like that night in night out you have nothing to worry about. He is over paid, but that isn't his fault.

 

[JT Kreider]

I actually thought Toews was a lot better last year than most will give him credit for. He was still near the league lead in GWG. That counts for something.

 

[zzoo]

I've followed hockey for more than 20 years. In my opinion, Toews has been the most over-rated player, by very far.

Overpaid ? I don't think so. I think that title is between Holik and Gomez.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Here is their respective PPGs vs. age, all situations:

Crosby's shortened seasons likely inflated his peak, but still...

I think that's a bit misleading just because when you score at Crosby's level, volatility and drop offs / recoveries would be more expected, especially with the coaching changes and injury history that Crosby had during his decline.

Is there a broad history of players that are closer to Toews' level of production who have recovered like Crosby after a fall of >30-40%?

Maybe Travis Zajac is a good comparison? Both great 2 way centerman with size and played with talent on their wings in their primes.

- Zajac was a 60-70 point 2 way centerman in his prime (~23-24 years old)
- Fell off to a ~40-50 point player when there were changes around him and he ran into some injuries (mid to late 20's)
- Decline continued until he bottomed out at around 27 point pace 2 seasons ago (29 years old; context: he played on an awfully low scoring devils team that year, the leading scorer had like 43 points)
- Has slowly regained some of his form and is a 40-50 point guy again at the ages of 30-31.


Compared with Toews:
- In his prime, Toews was a 70-80 point player (~22-25 years old)
- Fell off to a 60-65 point player (mid to late 20's)
- Currently pacing for 45 point season at 28 years old - hopefully this is the bottom.
- If his recovery is anything like Zajac's, he should return to ~60 point player for a few more years.

At this point, if Toews could right the ship like Zajac that would be pretty good news for Chicago fans. Obviously every player is different, and I'd say more times than not recoveries to full form are rare. One thing of note is that Zajac never lost his great 2 way play despite his production drop, which still made him a valuable player.

 

[Theodoriph]

When a Hawks fan creates the website: didtoewsscore.com and the answer is no for an entire year, we can talk about comparisons to Gomez.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Overpaid for sure but many are in the current league, played hard last night find its hard to imagine anyone with out a place for a player like him on their respective team.

 

[dkhockey]

How can you compare Crosby to Toews, who is a defensive minded forward.
And there are lots of things that don´t show up in the scoresheet

 

[Purity*]

Toews isn't doing **** all without being surrounded by good offensive talent.

Sharp and Saad didn't get nearly enough credit in Chicago, instead Toews was worshiped and they were seen as products of his greatness

Please leave him out of the same sentence as Crosby. It was a massive insult to Crosby that Toews was even seen has close to him.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

I wish people gave Malkin that same leniency when he is not in"God" mode.. smh

Lol well if it makes you feel better, I currently think and always have thought that Malkin is a better player than Toews. Malkin has been pretty fairly rated throughout his career IMO, Toews was overrated but now is clearly underrated. Malkin has consistently been a top 10 FWD in the NHL (sometimes the best), Toews has fluctuated a lot more, with lower peaks AND lower valleys. But, even in his valleys, he's still a really good player.

 

[Stickpucker]

I see Toews as an overrated Rod Brindamour playing on much better teams.

As far as the decline Toews has some more good years in him just not worth the contract.

 

[gordie]

Maybe the league has gotten quicker and Toews isn't the best skater in the world?

 

[daver]

Toews isn't doing **** all without being surrounded by good offensive talent.

Sharp and Saad didn't get nearly enough credit in Chicago, instead Toews was worshiped and they were seen as products of his greatness

I agree that some Toews fans go overboard in trying to defend Toews with the flawed "he makes his linemates better" argument and stats but to be fair, Toews was the 2nd best offensive producer for their 3 Cup runs. This biggest lack of credit I think has to go to Kane and to his ability to produce regardless of linemates, something that Toews does not seem to be able to do.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Toews needs an extended break of some kind

This guy has the worst contract in the entire league. He got 58 point last year and start this year with 2 point in 7 games. He's paid 10.5m till 2023 and is on a steady decline. I can't think of any worst contract out there

Honestly,

A long term injury might be a blessing in disguise for Jonathan Toews and I'll tell you why.

The guy has played *way* too much hockey in such a relative short time span. How many years now has Toews' Blackhawks made deep runs into the playoffs? Not only have they won 3 cups, but they've lost in the 3rd round 2-3 times as well if I recall correctly.

ON TOP OF THAT - Toews has been a part of two Olympic teams where Canada won the gold medal (and so, in terms of the Olympics, he played at or close to the maximum number of games).

ON TOP OF ALL THAT - he's been a 1st/2nd line player in all of the above situations, and/or has logged one of the most minutes of all players (whether that be the Blackhawks, Team Canada, etc.).


In my opinion, Toews simply needs an extended rest of some kind, or he'll risk ending up like declining a la Mike Richards/Dany Heatley style.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Honestly,

A long term injury might be a blessing in disguise for Jonathan Toews and I'll tell you why.

The guy has played *way* too much hockey in such a relative short time span. How many years now has Toews' Blackhawks made deep runs into the playoffs? Not only have they won 3 cups, but they've lost in the 3rd round 2-3 times as well if I recall correctly.

ON TOP OF THAT - Toews has been a part of two Olympic teams where Canada won the gold medal (and so, in terms of the Olympics, he played at or close to the maximum number of games).

ON TOP OF ALL THAT - he's been a 1st/2nd line player in all of the above situations, and/or has logged one of the most minutes of all players (whether that be the Blackhawks, Team Canada, etc.).


In my opinion, Toews simply needs an extended rest of some kind, or he'll risk ending up like declining a la Mike Richards/Dany Heatley style.

He had a long Summer this year and just had two weeks off...no change

 

[bobbydigital]

Kopitar is practically having an identical season to Toews with almost identical contracts. Is this aggressive criticism campaigned against him a result of Toews being overrated? It seems petty to bash a player because some pundit made the claim he was better than Crosby. He is completely deserving of the criticism based upon his on ice production. The Blackhawks obviously knew what kind of player Toews was when they signed him to that contract which means they clearly see value in the player beyond his point production like his consistency. Yes, this year it hasn't been there but claiming he is not a 1C anymore is ludicrous. It seems a year of sub-par play is enough to condemn a player and 9 years of consistency and production is disregarded. He has shown that he can play at an extremely high level and it shouldn't be assumed that he lost the talent that makes him such a great player.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Kopitar is practically having an identical season to Toews with almost identical contracts. Is this aggressive criticism campaigned against him a result of Toews being overrated? It seems petty to bash a player because some pundit made the claim he was better than Crosby. He is completely deserving of the criticism based upon his on ice production. The Blackhawks obviously knew what kind of player Toews was when they signed him to that contract which means they clearly see value in the player beyond his point production like his consistency. Yes, this year it hasn't been there but claiming he is not a 1C anymore is ludicrous. It seems a year of sub-par play is enough to condemn a player and 9 years of consistency and production is disregarded. He has shown that he can play at an extremely high level and it shouldn't be assumed that he lost the talent that makes him such a great player.

Well, firstly Kopitar has been playing pretty well.

Secondly, Kopitar had 74 points last year and was +34, and hasn't been steadily declining over the past few years.

Lastly, Toews has now strung together 100+ games of poor performance, scoring at a 55 point pace. That is not 1C production. He might do a lot of things at a high level but he's been struggling to do the most important thing for a non-trivial amount of time.

 

[tread102]

How can you compare Crosby to Toews, who is a defensive minded forward.
And there are lots of things that don´t show up in the scoresheet

defensive forwards don't make over 10 million a year in this league.

 

[SAK11]

Kopitar is practically having an identical season to Toews with almost identical contracts. Is this aggressive criticism campaigned against him a result of Toews being overrated? It seems petty to bash a player because some pundit made the claim he was better than Crosby. He is completely deserving of the criticism based upon his on ice production. The Blackhawks obviously knew what kind of player Toews was when they signed him to that contract which means they clearly see value in the player beyond his point production like his consistency. Yes, this year it hasn't been there but claiming he is not a 1C anymore is ludicrous. It seems a year of sub-par play is enough to condemn a player and 9 years of consistency and production is disregarded. He has shown that he can play at an extremely high level and it shouldn't be assumed that he lost the talent that makes him such a great player.

The hate Toews gets is too much from some people for sure, but Kopitar received far less praise when they were playing well, so it makes sense that he's receiving less criticism as they both struggle. Now if they both get back to their old level of play, you'll again hear a lot more about Toews than Kopitar.

Here are their stats since 2009/10 [playoffs included]:

Toews: 225 goals, 538 points in 606 games [per 82: 30.4 goals, 72.8 points]
Kopitar: 184 goals, 544 points in 603 games [per 82: 25 goals, 73.9 points]

And here are their rankings over those years in TSN's top 50 NHL player's list [from 2010 to 2016]:
Toews: 3, 8, 6, 3, 2, 2, 7 [avg= 4.4]
Kopitar: 29, 21, 10, 18, 5, 17, 11 [avg= 15.9]

And it goes beyond that poll, Toews simply interests people more. Playing for Chicago helps, as does being Canadian. So now, he's dealing with the negative side of that. Goes with the territory I suppose.