If they don't qualify him, is he then a UFA?While you can argue that Nylander is a better player its not like they are apart. They are both the same age and have been producing at a similar pace for the last 3 years. Then you consider the Leafs strengths and weaknesses, and an argument can be made that Timo would make them more well rounded and harder to play against.
As for the QO, it's not like he's gonna get 10 million. Probably around 7 million. And even if they don't decide to sign him, the cap space made available will be valuable.
If they do qualify him to retain his rights, he's not getting less than the QO.
Nylander is on a favorable contract, and there's no way the Leafs would trade him for cap space.