Pre-Game Talk: Time to talk Playoffs

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fahad203

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I prefer the Jets, but only because I know the Habs can end the McDavid hype.

They can't touch Matthews but they know how to handle McDavid.

Habs still has Weber. I know he's old and a bit broken down but that dude still a decent D and a presence in front. He will not think twice to pound McDavid into the boards and Connor knows it. That's what reputation does for you. Petry still a good D

Also, Habs play every game not to lose. They trap you from 1st minute of the game. These teams borify the game, good old Julian style
McDavid won't get any space or time. They'll just zone in on him
 

VanW27

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Jun 9, 2003
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I wouldn't have guessed that, but wouldn't you say the Jets hit a bit harder?
Haha, not sure how to answer that but I'm gonna go with no. Buff and Trouba are gone and Wheeler has really slowed down, those 3 used to set the physical tone for the Jets.

Habs D are huge and physical, Romanov is the only one of the likely playoff starters under 6'3" and he's their hits leader.

Jets D is pretty average in size/physicality with Pionk leading the way. If Stanley is in the lineup he adds some size but not sure if he'll get playing time.

Up front Habs are more physical top to bottom and both teams have one standout physical player, Anderson and Lowry. I'd say Anderson is 'meaner'. Down the middle the Jets do have a significant size advantage though with Scheifele-Dubois(Stastny?)-Lowry-Thompson vs Danault-Suzuki-Kotkaniemi-Evans
 

Petrus

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Jan 5, 2017
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So, correct me if I'm wrong, but considering points and regulation wins, if the final 4 was:

VGK: 80+ points*
Toronto: 76+ points
Tampa: 75 points (29 RW)
Boston: max 75 points (but max 26 RW)

They would reseed as:

VGK versus Boston
Toronto versus Tampa

Which would set up a Toronto versus Boston SCF. ;)

Toronto could overtake Vegas with 2 wins (1 regulation) and 2 Vegas losses.

I want redemption for the ages. And if Toronto wins, I would probably do some hard trolling at the mainboards if that were to happen.
 
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Voodoo Child

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Jun 16, 2009
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I have a bunch of notes I take - not just on hockey but on everything - and I often go through them when I have time and cobble together posts.

This is one of them, as was my post in this thread yesterday.

...

By my count the Leafs have only had a few 'bad games' against Montreal and Winnipeg.

I do not consider regulation wins a bad game under any circumstances. Good teams pull the ROW even when they're outplayed.

Not to say they didn't have stretches in games where they looked bad - as in the 1st period of Saturday's game - but bad effort, bad results, bad play. We don't always enjoy it, but the team has shown the ability to take half the game off and then turn it on for 2-3 goals and take the W.

That shit may fly against Winnipeg, Edmonton and Montreal in the regular season, but I guarantee it won't against Tampa, Colorado or Pittsburgh.

The opener vs Montreal was sloppy but for both teams, the 4-2 loss about a month ago where they lost the game in the first was a bad game. The 2-1 loss earlier in the season was Montreal playing them perfectly and not so much the Leafs being bad.

Against Winnipeg, both 5-2 losses were ugly, and the game where we needed Matthews to take Hellebuyck's soul in OT was also bad.

Against Vancouver, three of their four losses were bad - two with a lead going into the 3rd, one with a horrible performance by Rittich - the OTL they played well, then Ho Borvat scores two goals on Jack from the exact same place.

They lost four in a row to Vancouver. They didn't lose twice in a row against anyone else and won't.

Ottawa, 3 losses all bad games; their first game when Stutziluh scored his 1st, the comeback and the last one down three going into the 3rd. Bad, bad and bad.

The 6-5 Matthews hat trick game was a lot of fun, the type of game you'd show a new fan, and they led going into the 3rd.

Even the Flames, Dave went nuclear and we only got lucky because Willy flicked the switch.

I don't think they've played a bad game against the Oilers, the final OT loss of the series Hutch was in and the D wasn't good. They won four in a row against Edmonton.

In spite of the bad games and the lulls, a few slides, the Leafs have brutalized just about everybody at least once:

They worked Edmonton hard three in a row with McDavid kept in his McPlace.

They slaughtered Vancouver in the first three, outscoring them 15-6 in and again in the last two where 'We had Covid it's not fair!'

Winnipeg thinks we're goons after the more recent wins.

Even the almighty Ottawa got punted 7-3.

Montreal, late in the season and not as anticipated the team to beat in Canada, has been in a panic over the last three games.

Overall they've been very consistent and shown the ability to put bad games behind them. Every team has bad games, Tampa got mauled by Detroit last month and the Sharks smoked the Avs in March.

The last two games against the Jets the Leafs are 2-0-0 and have outscored them 9-4.

Montreal final series 2-0-1, 11-5.

They won the North and were in 1st place for something like 115 days. In an 82 game season that's like a team being at the top of their division since before Christmas.

They didn't take the division by fluke or in a technicality.

Montreal, Winnipeg, whoever it is - they're gonna hit us, and be on Matthews like flies on shit, and they're gonna hit Rielly and Muzzin on the forecheck - Montreal has shown a good forecheck game at times.

Both teams have a lot of tape against us, yoy think the PP got shut down because of a systemic flaw? The guys on the PP are still shooting the lights out five on five, it's because they picked it apart on tape.

But, if we're healthy, and we get the goaltending we've gotten - even if Jack plays 90% as good as he has really, I still have both series going for a maximum of six games, with sweeping not off the table.

I hope we can come out of either series with no injuries.
 

Wafflewhipper

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There are still 2 games left i would like to see them win. Then I’ll think about playoffs. The higher in the standing the better. Last change advantage is what’s left to play for.
 

Mess

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Vegas keeps updating their betting odds for the upcoming playoffs and our Leafs 1st round opponent is ranked either 16th Winnipeg or 14th Montreal of 16 playoff teams. Our Leafs are tied with the Cup champs TB and the Canes for 3rd behind only Vegas and Colorado as best bet to hoist the Cup.

2021 NHL Stanley Cup Odds

TeamAmericanFractional
Colorado Avalanche +4509/2
Vegas Golden Knights +55011/2
Carolina Hurricanes +75015/2
Tampa Bay Lightning +75015/2
Toronto Maple Leafs +75015/2
Boston Bruins +120012/1
Pittsburgh Penguins+120012/1
Washington Capitals +120012/1
New York Islanders +160016/1
Edmonton Oilers+200020/1
Minnesota Wild+200020/1
Florida Panthers +220022/1
St. Louis Blues +220022/1
Montreal Canadiens +250025/1
Nashville Predators+300030/1
Winnipeg Jets+300030/1
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Odds To Win 2021 NHL Stanley Cup Final
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Trapper

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Nov 21, 2013
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Vegas keeps updating their betting odds for the upcoming playoffs and our Leafs 1st round opponent is ranked either 16th Winnipeg or 14th Montreal of 16 playoff teams. Our Leafs are tied with the Cup champs TB and the Canes for 3rd behind only Vegas and Colorado as best bet to hoist the Cup.

2021 NHL Stanley Cup Odds

TeamAmericanFractional
Colorado Avalanche +4509/2
Vegas Golden Knights +55011/2
Carolina Hurricanes +75015/2
Tampa Bay Lightning +75015/2
Toronto Maple Leafs +75015/2
Boston Bruins +120012/1
Pittsburgh Penguins+120012/1
Washington Capitals +120012/1
New York Islanders +160016/1
Edmonton Oilers+200020/1
Minnesota Wild+200020/1
Florida Panthers +220022/1
St. Louis Blues +220022/1
Montreal Canadiens +250025/1
Nashville Predators+300030/1
Winnipeg Jets+300030/1
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Odds To Win 2021 NHL Stanley Cup Final
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
In the old division we’d be facing one of Tampa/Boston/Florida/Islanders 1st round.

Now we face teams that probably wouldn’t be in the playoffs up until the final 4. It’s like the old Norris/Patrick division.

This team has to make final 4 at the bare minimum.
 
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ACC1224

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In the old division we’d be facing one of Tampa/Boston/Florida/Islanders 1st round.

Now we face teams that probably wouldn’t be in the playoffs up until the final 4. It’s like the old Norris/Patrick division.

This team has to make final 4 at the bare minimum.
This really is the easiest road you could imagine. Not making the final four would be extremely disappointing, right up there with missing the playoffs last year.
 

Brobust

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Vegas keeps updating their betting odds for the upcoming playoffs and our Leafs 1st round opponent is ranked either 16th Winnipeg or 14th Montreal of 16 playoff teams. Our Leafs are tied with the Cup champs TB and the Canes for 3rd behind only Vegas and Colorado as best bet to hoist the Cup.

2021 NHL Stanley Cup Odds

TeamAmericanFractional
Colorado Avalanche +4509/2
Vegas Golden Knights +55011/2
Carolina Hurricanes +75015/2
Tampa Bay Lightning +75015/2
Toronto Maple Leafs +75015/2
Boston Bruins +120012/1
Pittsburgh Penguins+120012/1
Washington Capitals +120012/1
New York Islanders +160016/1
Edmonton Oilers+200020/1
Minnesota Wild+200020/1
Florida Panthers +220022/1
St. Louis Blues +220022/1
Montreal Canadiens +250025/1
Nashville Predators+300030/1
Winnipeg Jets+300030/1
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Odds To Win 2021 NHL Stanley Cup Final
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Wouldn't Vegas and Colorado actually have lower odds because they have to play each other?
 

Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
30,136
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Vegas keeps updating their betting odds for the upcoming playoffs and our Leafs 1st round opponent is ranked either 16th Winnipeg or 14th Montreal of 16 playoff teams. Our Leafs are tied with the Cup champs TB and the Canes for 3rd behind only Vegas and Colorado as best bet to hoist the Cup.

2021 NHL Stanley Cup Odds

TeamAmericanFractional
Colorado Avalanche +4509/2
Vegas Golden Knights +55011/2
Carolina Hurricanes +75015/2
Tampa Bay Lightning +75015/2
Toronto Maple Leafs +75015/2
Boston Bruins +120012/1
Pittsburgh Penguins+120012/1
Washington Capitals +120012/1
New York Islanders +160016/1
Edmonton Oilers+200020/1
Minnesota Wild+200020/1
Florida Panthers +220022/1
St. Louis Blues +220022/1
Montreal Canadiens +250025/1
Nashville Predators+300030/1
Winnipeg Jets+300030/1
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Odds To Win 2021 NHL Stanley Cup Final
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

What jumps out at me here is that COL and LV are such heavy favourites even though they have the hardest path to the final as they have to play each other on the way there. Thie means that whichever of there two makes it to the final 4 will be likely be a huge favourite at that point so I hope we don't have to play them in round 3 (assuming we both get that far).
 

Brobust

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Sep 29, 2017
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This really is the easiest road you could imagine. Not making the final four would be extremely disappointing, right up there with missing the playoffs last year.

That's not a fair standard.

There is a fully realistic route for any of the other 3 Canadian playoff teams to beat the leafs, without the leafs playing like shit.

If the leafs play like shit, sure, be disappointed. I'll probably hate the team more than you.

But if Hellebuyck/Price stand on their heads? If McDavid scores 20 in 7 games?
 
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Mess

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In the old division we’d be facing one of Tampa/Boston/Florida/Islanders 1st round.

Now we face teams that probably wouldn’t be in the playoffs up until the final 4. It’s like the old Norris/Patrick division.

This team has to make final 4 at the bare minimum.

Atlantic Div standings based on this seasons points.

1) Florida ...... 79 points
2) Toronto ... 76 points
3) Tampa ..... 75 points
4) Boston .... 73 points

Then our likely 1st 2 round opponents would be a toss up as to who comes out of the Div.

Tampa Bay Lightning +75015/2 -
Toronto Maple Leafs +75015/2
Boston Bruins +120012/1
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
While having been gifted a golden opportunity to the final 4 due to the weak North Div this year, which is great for our Cup drought and 16 years without a 1st round win. However I would like to see how our current roster would have matched up against TB and Boston. Perhaps we get those former Atlantic Div in rounds #3 or round #4.
 
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ACC1224

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That's not a fair standard.

There is a fully realistic route for any of the other 3 Canadian playoff teams to beat the leafs, without the leafs playing like shit.

If the leafs play like shit, sure, be disappointed. I'll probably hate the team more than you.

But if Hellebuyck/Price stand on their heads? If McDavid scores 20 in 7 games?
Neither of those will be valid excuses for losing, IMO.
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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While having been gifted a golden opportunity to the final 4 due to the weak North Div this year
The division isn't weak, and there's nothing unique about what the Leafs are facing. Our path to the final 4 is actually pretty normal.
Not making the final four would be extremely disappointing, right up there with missing the playoffs last year.
We did not miss the playoffs last year, and no, those situations are not remotely equal.
 

Not My Tempo

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Feb 22, 2015
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5v5 Goal differential:

1. Leafs: +38
2. Avs: +35
.
.
.
15. Jets: +2
16. Habs: +2
17. Oilers: +2

For the first time during this rebuild/new era, we're going into the playoffs where refs putting away the whistles might actually help us.

Also comparing to years past at 5v5:
YearGF% rankxGF% rank
16-171316
17-18517
18-19713
19-201712
20-2112
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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Mess

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What jumps out at me here is that COL and LV are such heavy favourites even though they have the hardest path to the final as they have to play each other on the way there. Thie means that whichever of there two makes it to the final 4 will be likely be a huge favourite at that point so I hope we don't have to play them in round 3 (assuming we both get that far).

You have to think part of that thinking also takes into account the East Div of death where Pitts (Crosby/Malkin) & Washington (OV) & Boston (the perfection line) and NYI. These teams are going to beat each other up and the one that comes out might not have a lot left for round #3 on.

So despite the 2 favourites Col and VGS having to go through each other to get to round #3 it makes sense the defending Cup Champs TB and Carolina potential President's trophy winners are ranked with our Leafs in those #3-5 spots ahead of that Div of death.
 

Gary Nylund

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You have to think part of that thinking also takes into account the East Div of death where Pitts (Crosby/Malkin) & Washington (OV) & Boston (the perfection line) and NYI. These teams are going to beat each other up and the one that comes out might not have a lot left for round #3 on.

So despite the 2 favourites Col and VGS having to go through each other to get to round #3 it makes sense the defending Cup Champs TB and Carolina potential President's trophy winners are ranked with our Leafs in those #3-5 spots ahead of that Div of death.

Yeah I'm sure they consider all that stuff. I'm just happy that I can say that IMHO, we fully deserve to be among the favourites with a decent shot at winning it all. There was a time not long ago when the odds showed us to be a top contender and I thought they were way off considering how big a question mark our goaltending was. Now though, Campbell is looking good and we're strong everywhere else so as long as he holds up, we're a very tough out for any team.
 

Mess

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This really is the easiest road you could imagine. Not making the final four would be extremely disappointing, right up there with missing the playoffs last year.

Yesterday on TSN they were discussing Leafs route to the final 4, and Winnipeg having won 1 of their last 10 games, and how easily Leafs handled the Habs this past week that if either of these 1st round opponents could win a single game against the Leafs they would be surprised.

Leafs in a sweep or 4-1 against either Montreal or Winnipeg.
 

ACC1224

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Yesterday on TSN they were discussing Leafs route to the final 4, and Winnipeg having won 1 of their last 10 games, and how easily Leafs handled the Habs this past week that if either of these 1st round opponents could win a single game against the Leafs they would be surprised.

Leafs in a sweep or 4-1 against either Montreal or Winnipeg.
The ease with which they should win makes it a little unsettling. Should be a fun ride though.
 

ViewsFromThe6ix

Zachary on the Attackary
Oct 17, 2013
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I don't understand this Reilly Nash obsession some of you have. Guy hasn't played at all this year. It will be difficult for him to get up to speed, and I think some current roster players have earned shots to start in the play offs. Having Nash as a black ace is terrific for depth, but I don't think he starts in the playoffs.

Been pleasantly surprised by Galley. Engvall looked great with Mikeyhev and Hyman shutting down the Oilers big guns. Brooks looks like a mid round steal. Our veterans are providing bang for their buck. Hutton was always a player I liked. I think he has a higher ceiling and I hope he sticks with us.






Nash is playing ahead of Galchenyuk....this has been well established already by people close to the team reporting it.

Also he played as recently as April....how is that not all year?
 
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Mess

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Yeah I'm sure they consider all that stuff. I'm just happy that I can say that IMHO, we fully deserve to be among the favourites with a decent shot at winning it all. There was a time not long ago when the odds showed us to be a top contender and I thought they were way off considering how big a question mark our goaltending was. Now though, Campbell is looking good and we're strong everywhere else so as long as he holds up, we're a very tough out for any team.

Leafs use to bring a figure skating team to the playoffs which was akin to bringing a knife to a gun fight. So it wasn't really surprising by the early easy out. Even against a low scoring team like CBJ last year, you knew the Leafs would be in tough.

This is the 1st season Leafs have loaded up on playoff style players this offseason, including mortgaging their future 1st rounder on Foligno at TD for a rental player and assembled a roster that can play any style including a tight checking, hard hitting, lower scoring style.

I think Leafs management understands this golden opportunity that should see them cruise through the 1st couple rounds and then really match-up roster personnel wise against any team thereafter.

Goaltending is really our only question mark, but we do have options and hopefully as long as we get steady goaltending, and not too many bad goals, we have the roster to be considered a serious Cup contender.

Optimism is truly warranted this year as we have the skill, depth, and player personnel to believe we can win it all.
 
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