Tim Thomas' HoF chances

[Mancini0518]

Its not the NHL hall of fame its the hockey hall of fame

that means Thomas has:

An olympic silver medal
Best goalie in Sweden
MVP in Sweden

These are all added to his resume

 

[shazariahl]

Again though, I'm not saying he should be considered based on that kind of resume. I'm essentially asking, what more does he need to do? Personally I would find it dubious to exclude a three-time Vezina winner. Or a player who has the best numbers of an "era" as Thomas does post-lockout.

What I'm sort of agog at is the idea that you consider the bar to be HIGHER than 5 Vezinas and a Hart. It would be an absolute crime to have guys like Cheevers and Fuhr in there but not a 5-time Vezina winner.

I have to agree with this. 5 time Vezina winner, I don't care if you played 7 seasons or 17 seasons, that's a lot of seasons to be judged the BEST goalie in the league. Add a Hart to it, and there's no way I could say no to that kind of resume, regardless of how long or how little he played in the NHL. That's the sort of dominance in his possition that would make him a solid top 20 at his possition all time, maybe even challenging for a spot in the top 10.

 

[nik jr]

Its not the NHL hall of fame its the hockey hall of fame

that means Thomas has:

An olympic silver medal
Best goalie in Sweden
MVP in Sweden

These are all added to his resume

finland, not sweden

thomas only played a few minutes in the olympics.

HHOF seems to mostly ignore international play.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Same here. I plan to adjust my rankings going forward, and it involves more of lowering Brodeur than it does bumping Belfour.

Of course it does. I'm sure you were just looking for another reason to lower Brodeur.

For the record, I have Belfour firmly entrenched in my Top 15 at this point. I realize I'm in the minority, but I'm definitely not the only one.

IMO, no he hasn't. Weak goals are almost always more detrimental to a team than great saves are positive. In theory, a goalie who stops every shot he should and lets in two breakaway goals is no different than one who stops the two breakways and lets in a couple floaters. But go ask any coach or player who they'd rather have playing behind them.

Goals that are scored off great scoring chances mean that several mistakes already happened, can be evaluated, and preventative measures can be put in place. The other five guys on the ice can in theory enable a shutout every game by reducing opposition scoring chances to nil, if they have a goaltender who will always stop "stoppable" shots. If the goaltender is prone to giving up laughers, there's really nothing the team in front of him can do. The other team can take a shoot from anywhere approach and not waste possessions looking for the perfect set-up. They know they aren't going to need it if they just keep getting pucks on net.

Agree 100% It's a huge reason why guys like Brodeur (until the past season or two obviously) are better than their save % numbers and guys like Luongo are worse than theirs.

I do think Thomas had a tendency to be a "high save %, bad goals" goalie in the past, but I haven't seen enough of him this year to say that (and it seems most Bruins fans disagree with you).

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Its not the NHL hall of fame its the hockey hall of fame

that means Thomas has:

An olympic silver medal
Best goalie in Sweden
MVP in Sweden

These are all added to his resume

You really think winning a silver medal at the Olympics with his ass firmly planted to the bench helps Thomas? IMO, the fact that the US chose Ryan Miller as their starter is a big blemish on Thomas's resume.

And the Swedish (edit: Finnish) awards will, fair or not, be seen as basically irrelevant to the HHOF Committee. I mean, if the Committee cared about such things, Sergei Makarov would have been a first ballot lock, instead of on the outside looking in.

 

[Sens Rule]

You really think winning a silver medal at the Olympics with his ass firmly planted to the bench helps Thomas? IMO, the fact that the US chose Ryan Miller as their starter is a big blemish on Thomas's resume.

And the Swedish (edit: Finnish) awards will, fair or not, be seen as basically irrelevant to the HHOF Committee. I mean, if the Committee cared about such things, Sergei Makarov would have been a first ballot lock, instead of on the outside looking in.

Plus Makarov was unable to play in the NHL due to political reasons and not the lack of NHL clubs being interested in him. Thomas was in Europe simply because no one wanted him in the NHL. It would be like him winning AHL MVP. That is great but really does it add to his top level hockey Resume? No it does not.

 

[Master_Of_Districts]

Are you serious?

Come on, you know better than that.

You start out saying you actually have to watch the guy, then tell us Rask has performed just as well as Thomas this season?

I think the only Bruins game you have seen was the Montreal game.

McMahon routinely plays the "I watch the games" trump card.

Which raises a good question: how many Bruins games have you personally watched this season, Kyle?

I'll start the list:

01/08/11 - @Montreal

 

[Kyle McMahon]

McMahon routinely plays the "I watch the games" trump card.

Which raises a good question: how many Bruins games have you personally watched this season, Kyle?

I'll start the list:

01/08/11 - @Montreal

Unfortunately, I don't keep a tally handy. Maybe a dozen?

 

[Gobias Industries]

If he does the

~60 games, 40+ wins, >.940 SV %, <2.00 GAA...

He should win everything...and it should be remembered as one of the greatest seasons ever..

 

[seventieslord]

.945 is not heads and shoulders better than .930?

The same differencial (.930 to .915) encompasses 18 goalies.

Not to nitpick, but statistically, a 5.5% error rate compared to 7%, is a bigger gap than between 7% and 8.5%. Obviously your point still stands.

 

[BraveCanadian]

If he does the

~60 games, 40+ wins, >.940 SV %, <2.00 GAA...

He should win everything...and it should be remembered as one of the greatest seasons ever..

If he is able to maintain anything over .930 over a season of play it is truly remarkable.

>=.940 is a season for the ages.

 

[mrzeigler]

My initial reaction to seeing this thread title was that the OP was crazy, but this has been one of more interesting thread in a while. As an earlier poster said, his truly has been one of the most unusual careers.

 

[Derick*]

Not to nitpick, but statistically, a 5.5% error rate compared to 7%, is a bigger gap than between 7% and 8.5%. Obviously your point still stands.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Not to nitpick, but statistically, a 5.5% error rate compared to 7%, is a bigger gap than between 7% and 8.5%. Obviously your point still stands.

That's it, no more math-based arguments for me.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Not to mention that the higher your save percentage gets, like with most things, it just gets exponentially harder as you go.

.945 is a hugely bigger difference over .930 than .930 is to .915

.945 is mind boggling.. it shouldn't even be humanly possible. We're talking like 163 assists sort of accomplishment if he can maintain it.

That's it, no more math-based arguments for me.

 

[Hardyvan123]

If he does the

~60 games, 40+ wins, >.940 SV %, <2.00 GAA...

He should win everything...and it should be remembered as one of the greatest seasons ever..

Thomsa is at 23 wins right now and at the rate Boston is playing thye might win another 21 games.

Put together that Rask is going to play in probably 10 of their last 36 games, it's going to be pretty hard fro Thomas to win another 17 times in 26 games.

At some point the law of averages and some of his luck will run out a bit.

That being said he will probably end up with around 37 wins and is definitely the front runner for the top goalie but I doubt he will win a Hart this year.

 

[BraveCanadian]

That's it, no more math-based arguments for me.

Your point was still correct.

If anything what seventies and I pointed out just reinforces your point even more.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Your point was still correct.

If anything what seventies and I pointed out just reinforces your point even more.

No problem.

Many moons ago math came easy. Now that I have to give it some thought, I'm just too lazy to bother.

 

[BraveCanadian]

No problem.

Many moons ago math came easy. Now that I have to give it some thought, I'm just too lazy to bother.

Luckily for those of us like you and I who are too lazy now.. most math based arguments in hockey are fairly horrible because of how poor the stats they are based on are at describing what actually happens in a hockey game..

 

[Derick*]

The difference between a 5.5% (.945) and a 7% (.930) error rate is proportionately the same as the difference between a 7% (.930) error rate and an 8.91% (.909) error rate, if anyone was wondering.

 

[DisgruntledGoat*]

Let's say that Tim Thomas wins the Conn Smythe and the Vezina. . .

Is he a Hall-of-Famer? In a three-year period, he would have won two Vezinas, a Conn Smythe and (possibly) a Stanley Cup. That's a nice little run. Until you consider that he lost his starter's job for a year in there, too.

How much would winning the Cup tonight help his case? Is he more or less of a candidate if he wins MVP in a losing cause?

And if he's not a HoF candidate, what else do you think he has to do to make a case for himself? And, at 37, does he have time to do it?

And one last question to throw out at you: If he is not a HoF candidate (and, for the record, I don't think he is but I'll explain my reasoning a little later), does his last three years rank as the best run ever put together by a non-HoF goalie?

 

[begbeee]

If he will win a Cup and Conn Smythe this year (and Vezina and 1st AST), it is sufficient resume for induction, but he couldnt has a weak season in rest of his career. Weak doesnt mean he has to win another Vezina or so, but he has always been there among best goalies in the NHL for rest of his career. If he would fall off the radar, he is done.

 

[WingsFan95]

He had a pretty solid playoff outing in 09 too.

I think what some will hold against him is Osgood 2.0, he's good but he's got a good team in front of him.

When I posted a poll at the beginning of the playoffs the consensus is he needs to double what he has now.

4 Vezinas, or 3 Vezinas and a Conn Smythe.

That would wash out the fact he's had such a short career.

You then put him in the group of Bernie Parent, who played longer and won two Cups and two Conn Smythes. Now his era Vezinas were different so maybe Thomas gets a bigger credit beating out so many goaltenders.

But he needs to play till 41 at least, which is entirely possible.

 

[GummoMarx]

I can't say I agree with the Osgood 2.0. Thomas never had a team like Detroit in front of him, Boston has been very, very good the past few years with TT at the helm, but not Detroit good.

This may be a stretch in the other direction, but with the age factor, coming into the league after years and years of riding busses in North America and playing in Europe, that Thomas is showing signs of an Johnny Bower during his early days with the Leafs. Mind you, Boston hasn't won three cups in a row (again in a 6 team league), but he has put up the regular season numbers that could compare to Bower of the late 50's, early 60's.

If anything, Thomas is right in between Osgood and Bower.

 

[cynicism]

Bower was the first thing that came to mind when I read this. Thomas' late bloomer status shouldn't be held against him but it inadvertently will when compared to his peers who've had longer careers and thus more time to win awards. I do agree that he pretty much has to be flawless the next few years for him to have a shot.