Tim Thomas' HoF chances

[SidGenoMario]

If a goalie with 2 Vezinas and a Conn Smythe and the best numbers of his generation can't get in, we might as well call it the Hall of Compilers.

Timmy's in.

This, so much. After seeing how good he's been, he's the reason why we have halls of fame. Being above average for a decent period of time is a guaranteed entry to the hall, but that shouldn't be its purpose, IMO. It should be for remembering players with seasons such as this one.

 

[Big Phil]

I can't get out of my head as to how he wasn't a finalist for the Hart Trophy. How in the world he wasn't in the top 3 is mind boggling. Especially now after we saw the playoffs and just how much more important he really is compared to Daniel Sedin.

Yes, I know the regular season is only for the Hart, but still. I have always felt that it has been lazy voting on the writers the last few years.

In 2008, 2010 and 2011 the top 3 scorers were the Hart finalists. I don't have a problem with 2008 at all because Ovechkin, Malkin and Iginla were the three best players that year. I can live with that.

But 2010 for some reason didn't have Miller. 2011 somehow doesn't have Thomas which is even more insane. The guy had the best save % since they started keeping the stat and he's no better than the 4th most important player in the NHL?

I'm sure Thomas wouldn't trade it in for his Conn Smythe and Cup but he needed more love for the Hart.

Anyway, I don't see the guy slowing down at all and I think he can string 3-4 more seasons like this one. He SHOULD be a HHOFer when all is said and done. 2011 was as good of a season as we've seen someone have post lockout.

 

[WingsFan95]

Makes you wonder how Hasek was able to sway voters in 98 and 99.

What would make it fair is if we had a goaltender, d-man and forward be given a slot as a finalist. Or at least make that commonplace unless there's two great forwards or two great goalies or defenseman in a certain year.

HOWEVER, as some have pointed out, there is a Vezina and there is a Norris, so there has to be a trophy for best forward which ends up being the Hart by default.

Though maybe we can change the Ted Lindsay to mean Best Forward.

 

[seventieslord]

Thomas will still be a divisive candidate. Assuming, that is, that the next 3 years go like the "odds" say they will - he has a very good season followed by an average one, followed by a middling one where he eventually loses his starter's job. along the way he wins about a dozen playoff games.

But he gets my vote either way. the criticism of CuJo is, "never won a cup, never won a Vezina." Thomas has three of those combined, and the Conn Smythe to boot.

Since 1982-83 only. Shots and save data existed before then, they were just never compiled. They've been reconstructed going to back to 1952-53. Jacques Plante had two seasons over .940, and numbers much higher than this were commonplace in 1927-28, the earliest season where such numbers are available.

I would say that, statistically speaking, Thomas' .940 sv% over 25 games is more impressive than Plante's .949 and .951 achieved in 8-10 games.

the league is a bit higher scoring now than in Hasek's prime, but save percentages are generally higher now

That doesn't sound right.... that would mean SOG would be through the roof. they aren't, are they?

also,does anyone else feel that it was a bit of a joke that he wasn't even nominated for the Hart this year?

Yes.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Games Played

I can't get out of my head as to how he wasn't a finalist for the Hart Trophy. How in the world he wasn't in the top 3 is mind boggling. Especially now after we saw the playoffs and just how much more important he really is compared to Daniel Sedin.

Yes, I know the regular season is only for the Hart, but still. I have always felt that it has been lazy voting on the writers the last few years.

In 2008, 2010 and 2011 the top 3 scorers were the Hart finalists. I don't have a problem with 2008 at all because Ovechkin, Malkin and Iginla were the three best players that year. I can live with that.

But 2010 for some reason didn't have Miller. 2011 somehow doesn't have Thomas which is even more insane. The guy had the best save % since they started keeping the stat and he's no better than the 4th most important player in the NHL?

I'm sure Thomas wouldn't trade it in for his Conn Smythe and Cup but he needed more love for the Hart.

Anyway, I don't see the guy slowing down at all and I think he can string 3-4 more seasons like this one. He SHOULD be a HHOFer when all is said and done. 2011 was as good of a season as we've seen someone have post lockout.

it comes down to games played during the regular season and Thomas with 57 falls somewhat short compared to Hasek when he won the Hart. Hasek played 67 and 72 games each of his Hart seasons.

 

[seventieslord]

it comes down to games played during the regular season and Thomas with 57 falls somewhat short compared to Hasek when he won the Hart. Hasek played 67 and 72 games each of his Hart seasons.

I'm not sure if you're advocating this position or just explaining it. You are probably right that this is the reason. But does it really say something about Thomas, or the fact that he has perhaps the best understudy in the league?

 

[ricky0034]

Makes you wonder how Hasek was able to sway voters in 98 and 99.

What would make it fair is if we had a goaltender, d-man and forward be given a slot as a finalist. Or at least make that commonplace unless there's two great forwards or two great goalies or defenseman in a certain year.

HOWEVER, as some have pointed out, there is a Vezina and there is a Norris, so there has to be a trophy for best forward which ends up being the Hart by default.

Though maybe we can change the Ted Lindsay to mean Best Forward.

yeah there really should be a best forward award like the Norris and Vezina

having one could potentially really help correct the forward bias the Hart has

 

[Canadiens1958]

Explaining

I'm not sure if you're advocating this position or just explaining it. You are probably right that this is the reason. But does it really say something about Thomas, or the fact that he has perhaps the best understudy in the league?

Explaining how voting has been handled for years not only for the Hart but other trophies and AS teams.

Just says something about how the game is viewed by voters.

As fot Thomas all it does is reflect the situation that last season he effectively lost his starting job and had to spend part of this season sharing it and getting it back.

 

[Hammer Time]

"The Ted Lindsay Award (formerly Lester P. Pearson Award) is presented annually to the most outstanding player in the NHL."

I know the awards aren't usually awarded according to definitions. But can you think of one player who was more outstanding than Thomas this year?

 

[unknown33]

Yes.

Especially considering the competition. Daniel Sedin, St. Louis and Corey Perry the 3 worst Hart nominees/seasons for a long, long time.

 

[Sens Rule]

Especially considering the competition. Daniel Sedin, St. Louis and Corey Perry the 3 worst Hart nominees/seasons for a long, long time.

The three Most Valuable players to their teams were probably St. Louis, Thomas and Price. Not sure they were the best but almost certainly were the most valuable. Possibly none of those teams make the playoffs without these players... even Boston could possibly have missed.

Crosby clearly is MVP if he plays the whole year though.

 

[Pantokrator]

it comes down to games played during the regular season and Thomas with 57 falls somewhat short compared to Hasek when he won the Hart. Hasek played 67 and 72 games each of his Hart seasons.

I agree - this is the reason he wasn't a finalist, but the frustrating part is that it is not his fault that he didn't play in those games.

In the 70s, the goalies' backup always played a good amount of games, which is a good coaching strategy.

I think Thomas was clearly the best player this year and crucial to his team's success. I think he clearly deserves the Hart. I think Miller should have won it last year.

Regarding Hall of Fame, if he can sustain this pace for 3 more seasons, I think he would merit solid consideration. The problem is that it seems the voters are inconsistent, so it is difficult to tell what they are looking for.

 

[Pantokrator]

Especially considering the competition. Daniel Sedin, St. Louis and Corey Perry the 3 worst Hart nominees/seasons for a long, long time.

I think I'd have to agree with you.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

it comes down to games played during the regular season and Thomas with 57 falls somewhat short compared to Hasek when he won the Hart. Hasek played 67 and 72 games each of his Hart seasons.

This is correct. And I have no problem with it. When you don't play in 25 of your team's games, its hard to be MVP.

But, there were also people making the case he should not win the Vezina Trophy either. With his odd style and short NHL career, it took this kind of performance on the big stage for him to get the recognition he deserves.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Perceptions

I agree - this is the reason he wasn't a finalist, but the frustrating part is that it is not his fault that he didn't play in those games.

In the 70s, the goalies' backup always played a good amount of games, which is a good coaching strategy.

I think Thomas was clearly the best player this year and crucial to his team's success. I think he clearly deserves the Hart. I think Miller should have won it last year.

Regarding Hall of Fame, if he can sustain this pace for 3 more seasons, I think he would merit solid consideration. The problem is that it seems the voters are inconsistent, so it is difficult to tell what they are looking for.

Matter of voter perceptions. Using this years numbers Tim Thomas was credited with 35 regular season victories. The Hart candidates were in the 100 point range meaning that they scored points well in over half of their team's games, probably topping 60 games.

You see the difficulty facing goalies.

 

[Sensfanman]

Matter of voter perceptions. Using this years numbers Tim Thomas was credited with 35 regular season victories. The Hart candidates were in the 100 point range meaning that they scored points well in over half of their team's games, probably topping 60 games.

You see the difficulty facing goalies.

While true, look at Thomas' back up. Rask, while good, had a .918 Sv% and won 11 games (.444 Point %) while Thomas was up at the .718 Point %. Swap Thomas for Rask and that costs the Bruins 30 points (15 Wins) over those 55 games. How many players earn their team 15 wins over an average replacement? Would going from 100 points to 60 points for D. Sedin have cost the Canucks much this season? Do 40 points win 15 games?

 

[jkrx]

The only reason Thomas didnt play more games is because they need to keep their young goalie happy and developing. Thomas is clearly the MVP even if he only played 57 games. The fact that all three players is 1, 2, 3, in scoring is pretty telling of how the voters was thinking. This was a goalie year with incredible performances from Thomas, Price and Rinne yet we see three forwards up for hart.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Not Supported

While true, look at Thomas' back up. Rask, while good, had a .918 Sv% and won 11 games (.444 Point %) while Thomas was up at the .718 Point %. Swap Thomas for Rask and that costs the Bruins 30 points (15 Wins) over those 55 games. How many players earn their team 15 wins over an average replacement? Would going from 100 points to 60 points for D. Sedin have cost the Canucks much this season? Do 40 points win 15 games?

Your analogy is superficial and not supported by game realities.

2009-10 season Thomas could not beat-out the alleged average replacement. You also fail to look at the opposition that each faced or back to back games or 3 in 4 nights games.

Forwards playing 82 games do not get nights off, have to play against opponents of all kinds. Forwards missing more than 10 games have to be truly exceptional for consideration.Do the same projections for Sidney Crosby this season and no one is talking Tim Thomas.

 

[tarheelhockey]

2009-10 season Thomas could not beat-out the alleged average replacement.

2009-10 Thomas was playing with a degenerating hip that required offseason surgery.

2009-10 Rask was the best goaltender in the league from a statistical angle. Clearly, bum-hip Thomas was not going to replace him... but Thomas still managed 43 games and put up a respectable .915.

This year, a healthy Thomas took the starting position almost immediately out of the gate and Rask, while putting up a very respectable .918 rode the pine most of the season.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Tracking where Thomas stands in the post-lockout era.

Save Percentage (100+ GP)
1. (tie) Tim Thomas, Thomas Vokoun .922
3. Jonas Hiller .921
4. Pekka Rinne .921
5. Roberto Luongo .919

GAA (100+ GP)
9. Roberto Luongo 2.45
10. Cristobal Huet 2.47
11 (tie). Tim Thomas / Manny Fernandez 2.49
13. Miikka Kiprusoff 2.50

Wins
9. Evgeni Nabokov 172
10. Tomas Vokoun 164
11. Tim Thomas 158
12. Ilya Bryzgalov 155
13. (tie) Niklas Backstrom / JS Giguere 141

Shutouts
4. (tie) Thomas Vokoun / Roberto Luongo 32
6. Tim Thomas 26
7. Evgeni Nabokov 24
8. Ilya Bryzgalov 23

Saves
6. Martin Brodeur 9669
7. Cam Ward 9052
8. Tim Thomas 8899
9. Marc-Andre Fleury 8831
10. Dwayne Roloson 8670

Regular Season Games Played
10. Ilya Bryzgalov 324
11. Dwayne Roloson 321
12. Tim Thomas 315
13. Evgeni Nabokov 305
14. JS Giguere 288

Playoff Wins
3. Roberto Luongo 32
4. Chris Osgood 29
5. Tim Thomas 26
6. Ryan Miller 25
7. Antii Niemi 24

Playoff Save Percentage (20+ games)
1. Tim Thomas .935
2. Chris Osgood .928
3. Dwayne Roloson .926
4. Jaroslav Halak .923
5. Marty Turco .921

Playoff GAA (20+ games)
1. Chris Osgood 1.80
2. Dominik Hasek 1.96
3. Tim Thomas 2.06
4. Marty Turco 2.09
5. Cam Ward 2.38

Playoff Shutouts
1. (tie) Tim Thomas, Roberto Luongo, Marc-Andre Fleury, Chris Osgood 5
2. (tie) Cam Ward, Marty Turco 4

Playoff Games Played
3. Ryan Miller 47
4. Evgeni Nabokov 46
5. Tim Thomas 43
6. Chris Osgood 42
7. Cam Ward 41

Awards
Vezina (likely 2) - Brodeur also has 2
Crozier (2) - only goaltender with multiple
First All-Star (likely 2) - only goaltender with multiple
Jennings (1)
Conn Smythe (1) - Cam Ward the only other goaltender recipient
All-Star Games (3) - most among goaltenders

 

[jkrx]

As far as I know there is no goalie who has won a vezina, conn smythe and a cup and not been in HoF. Might have forgot someone though.

 

[SidGenoMario]

Just curious, how did his finals stats compare to other good finals?

 

[finchster]

If Thomas has two more elite level seasons, not this type of season but 30 win seasons, he should be a first ballot Hall of Famer.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Interesting Data

Tracking where Thomas stands in the post-lockout era.

Save Percentage (100+ GP)
1. (tie) Tim Thomas, Thomas Vokoun .922
3. Jonas Hiller .921
4. Pekka Rinne .921
5. Roberto Luongo .919

GAA (100+ GP)
9. Roberto Luongo 2.45
10. Cristobal Huet 2.47
11 (tie). Tim Thomas / Manny Fernandez 2.49
13. Miikka Kiprusoff 2.50

Wins
9. Evgeni Nabokov 172
10. Tomas Vokoun 164
11. Tim Thomas 158
12. Ilya Bryzgalov 155
13. (tie) Niklas Backstrom / JS Giguere 141

Shutouts
4. (tie) Thomas Vokoun / Roberto Luongo 32
6. Tim Thomas 26
7. Evgeni Nabokov 24
8. Ilya Bryzgalov 23

Saves
6. Martin Brodeur 9669
7. Cam Ward 9052
8. Tim Thomas 8899
9. Marc-Andre Fleury 8831
10. Dwayne Roloson 8670

Regular Season Games Played
10. Ilya Bryzgalov 324
11. Dwayne Roloson 321
12. Tim Thomas 315
13. Evgeni Nabokov 305
14. JS Giguere 288

Playoff Wins
3. Roberto Luongo 32
4. Chris Osgood 29
5. Tim Thomas 26
6. Ryan Miller 25
7. Antii Niemi 24

Playoff Save Percentage (20+ games)
1. Tim Thomas .935
2. Chris Osgood .928
3. Dwayne Roloson .926
4. Jaroslav Halak .923
5. Marty Turco .921

Playoff GAA (20+ games)
1. Chris Osgood 1.80
2. Dominik Hasek 1.96
3. Tim Thomas 2.06
4. Marty Turco 2.09
5. Cam Ward 2.38

Playoff Shutouts
1. (tie) Tim Thomas, Roberto Luongo, Marc-Andre Fleury, Chris Osgood 5
2. (tie) Cam Ward, Marty Turco 4

Playoff Games Played
3. Ryan Miller 47
4. Evgeni Nabokov 46
5. Tim Thomas 43
6. Chris Osgood 42
7. Cam Ward 41

Awards
Vezina (likely 2) - Brodeur also has 2
Crozier (2) - only goaltender with multiple
First All-Star (likely 2) - only goaltender with multiple
Jennings (1)
Conn Smythe (1) - Cam Ward the only other goaltender recipient
All-Star Games (3) - most among goaltenders

Interesting data. Thank you for taking the time to compile it. The strongest point that you raise is that the criteria for goalies will likely change as we go deeper into the post lockout era. Similar to the criteria changing once the two goalie system was introduced and a generation's worth of data was accumulated. Effectively this means that the decision does not have to be made today and perceptions will change over the next few seasons.

The reason why Rask replaced Thomas during the 2009-10 does not change matters significantly. Players returning from injury usually require a fukk season to get back to pre injury form. Thomas' usage and performance from the regular season thru the playoffs reflects this. The 57 regular season games seems like the optimum number given the circumstances and a fair trade-off given the final results..

 

[Sensfanman]

Your analogy is superficial and not supported by game realities.

2009-10 season Thomas could not beat-out the alleged average replacement. You also fail to look at the opposition that each faced or back to back games or 3 in 4 nights games.

Forwards playing 82 games do not get nights off, have to play against opponents of all kinds. Forwards missing more than 10 games have to be truly exceptional for consideration.Do the same projections for Sidney Crosby this season and no one is talking Tim Thomas.

I was analyzing 2010-11, that had nothing to do with 2009-10. As for opposition, it stands to reason Thomas took the harder games as Rask was the backup so that would only strengthen his case. Besides, my stuff wasn't a projection, it was measuring Thomas' actual value over Rask because they both play on the same team. So really, your criticisms are unfounded and make it clear you do not understand the point I was making; and I don't think it's my fault for being unclear.