Tim Thomas' HoF chances

[tarheelhockey]

Goals that are scored off great scoring chances mean that several mistakes already happened, can be evaluated, and preventative measures can be put in place. The other five guys on the ice can in theory enable a shutout every game by reducing opposition scoring chances to nil, if they have a goaltender who will always stop "stoppable" shots. If the goaltender is prone to giving up laughers, there's really nothing the team in front of him can do. The other team can take a shoot from anywhere approach and not waste possessions looking for the perfect set-up. They know they aren't going to need it if they just keep getting pucks on net.

This is a fair point if we're comparing two average goalies. But no matter how you evaluate Thomas's style, he's well above average. About a week ago I watched the Hurricanes put 38 shots on him in TWO periods, taking the "shoot from anywhere" approach, and scored 1 goal on a rebound by getting right in his kitchen. I really can't imagine that Thomas' teammates were looking at him as a potential weak link during that sort of performance.

It's not that you're wrong about what you're saying here, but I would say it doesn't matter as long as he has a GAA under 2. There's no reason his team should lose even if he lets in the occasional laugher.

His biggest problem in winning the Hart this year is that he is not head and shoulders better than the next 5 guys on the save % list as Rinne, Lundqvist, Palvelic and Hiller are all number 1 goalies on weaker teams that are also having great seasons....
The bottom line is that Thomas is going to have some pretty serious competition for being the best goalie never mind the MVP this year.

I realize he may eventually come back to the pack, but there is no way he misses the Vezina unless he has a bad second half. And I find it at least as likely for a Rinne or Pavelec to have a bad second half as for a previous winner who's rolling with a .945.

 

[Sens Rule]

I do maintain that the numbers from the past three years oversell him, however. And this harkens back to my previous post about the timing and style of goals allowed ruining games that, statistically, he was very good in.

I guess it depends how you'd classify a bad goal. Is getting caught way out of position or failing to corral a rebound that should have been swallowed considered a bad goal? That's open to interpretation. Is it considered a preventable goal? Definitely.

I don't want to appear as though I'm crapping on the guy to no end, but how many of Thomas' nine-bell saves are really fairly routine saves if the goaltender is positioned properly? How often does it appear the Bruins broke down defensively by allowing five shots and finally a goal in a sequence, yet that sequence began by Thomas misplaying the puck or not controlling a rebound?

I don't know, I don't keep a tally, but it seems to happen with regularity when I've watched Bruins games during the Thomas era.

Thomas plays the way he plays. His team has got used to it. He is quite unique and if you don't watch him a lot you might think that he is bad on rebounds or positioning but really he knows what he is doing. Like Hasek when he came to Ottawa and you really got to see him a couple of times a week and live and he is just completely and utterly different. Thomas is not to the degree Hasek was but he is unique.

Thomas has proven whatever he is doing is working for several seasons in a row. I doubt the Bruins are deflated when he lets in a "weak" goal from time to time. It is different if a goalie like Thomas in an elite season or Miller last year or Roy or Hasek let in a weak or bad goal and if a struggling goalie on a struggling team lets in a bad goal. If Elliott lets in a bad goal or Leclaire does then the Sens are deflated. When they had a stacked lineup and a bad goal went in it was not a big deal at all. When Hasek was in Ottawa they didn't even care if they gave up breakaways. Anyway I doubt Thomas is doing much to deflate the Bruins this season no matter what goals he happens to let in.

 

[Sens Rule]

His biggest problem in winning the Hart this year is that he is not head and shoulders better than the next 5 guys on the save % list as Rinne, Lundqvist, Palvelic and Hiller are all number 1 goalies on weaker teams that are also having great seasons.

I left Varlamov off the list because he hasn't played enough to be considered the lock number 1 goalie in Washington yet this season.

The bottom line is that Thomas is going to have some pretty serious competition for being the best goalie never mind the MVP this year.

I think he is clearly and easily the best this season. If the season ended today he might be a unanimous choice for 1st Team All-Star and Vezina. By the end of the season who knows.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

Thomas plays the way he plays. His team has got used to it. He is quite unique and if you don't watch him a lot you might think that he is bad on rebounds or positioning but really he knows what he is doing. Like Hasek when he came to Ottawa and you really got to see him a couple of times a week and live and he is just completely and utterly different. Thomas is not to the degree Hasek was but he is unique.

Thomas has proven whatever he is doing is working for several seasons in a row. I doubt the Bruins are deflated when he lets in a "weak" goal from time to time. It is different if a goalie like Thomas in an elite season or Miller last year or Roy or Hasek let in a weak or bad goal and if a struggling goalie on a struggling team lets in a bad goal. If Elliott lets in a bad goal or Leclaire does then the Sens are deflated. When they had a stacked lineup and a bad goal went in it was not a big deal at all. When Hasek was in Ottawa they didn't even care if they gave up breakaways. Anyway I doubt Thomas is doing much to deflate the Bruins this season no matter what goals he happens to let in.

What's the standard for success?

In 2008, Boston generally outplayed Montreal, but lost in 7 games. Price outplaying Thomas was the difference.

In 2009 the first place Bruins got bounced early by Carolina. Thomas wasn't any worse than many of his teammates, but it wasn't exactly a Vezina-caliber showing.

In 2010 he lost his job to a rookie, albeit a rookie who played fantastic. Still, how many Vezina winners get relegated to the bench immediately following their trophy season?

Remains to be seen what 2011 will bring in April and May.

Thomas has yet to show that he can lead a team to any measure of success in the playoffs, and that's pretty damn important for a supposedly elite goaltender on a good team. Much less one who's name has been used in the same sentence as "Hall of Fame", however dubious that may be. Being the king of regular season save% only gets you so far. (Though apparently a lot further in most people's books as compared to mine.)

 

[ricky0034]

What's the standard for success?

In 2008, Boston generally outplayed Montreal, but lost in 7 games. Price outplaying Thomas was the difference.

In 2009 the first place Bruins got bounced early by Carolina. Thomas wasn't any worse than many of his teammates, but it wasn't exactly a Vezina-caliber showing.

In 2010 he lost his job to a rookie, albeit a rookie who played fantastic. Still, how many Vezina winners get relegated to the bench immediately following their trophy season?

Remains to be seen what 2011 will bring in April and May.

Thomas has yet to show that he can lead a team to any measure of success in the playoffs, and that's pretty damn important for a supposedly elite goaltender on a good team. Much less one who's name has been used in the same sentence as "Hall of Fame", however dubious that may be. Being the king of regular season save% only gets you so far. (Though apparently a lot further in most people's books as compared to mine.)

how many Vezina winners play the entire next season with a serious injury immediately following their trophy season?

 

[Kyle McMahon]

how many Vezina winners play the entire next season with a serious injury immediately following their trophy season?

What, the bum hand that caused him to miss a few games early on? I could be wrong, but I don't recall that being an issue past the early part of the season.

 

[PB37]

What's the standard for success?

In 2008, Boston generally outplayed Montreal, but lost in 7 games. Price outplaying Thomas was the difference.

In 2009 the first place Bruins got bounced early by Carolina. Thomas wasn't any worse than many of his teammates, but it wasn't exactly a Vezina-caliber showing.

In 2010 he lost his job to a rookie, albeit a rookie who played fantastic. Still, how many Vezina winners get relegated to the bench immediately following their trophy season?

Remains to be seen what 2011 will bring in April and May.

Thomas has yet to show that he can lead a team to any measure of success in the playoffs, and that's pretty damn important for a supposedly elite goaltender on a good team. Much less one who's name has been used in the same sentence as "Hall of Fame", however dubious that may be. Being the king of regular season save% only gets you so far. (Though apparently a lot further in most people's books as compared to mine.)

Thomas was great in the series against Carolina. He had a .934 save percentage and faced 31 shots on average in just that series alone. Those are Vezina-type numbers.

Thomas had a degenerating hip going into the 2008-2009 year. He and his trainer discovered while doing yoga in the offseason before his Vezina year that he was unable to do a couple of simple stretches. He was able to play through it but last season he tweaked it making a save against ( Toronto I think ) and it effected his play for the rest of the year and Rask took over. His start to the 2009-2010 season was Vezina-caliber before the hip injury.

 

[PB37]

For those that want to read one of the best written pieces on Tim Thomas, read this article from Kirk Luedeke, who we on the Bruins board are privileged to have post often on our boards.

http://kirkscall.hockeyjournal.com/2010/10/no-doubting-thomas/

 

[Jumptheshark]

bottom line is TT numbers are NO WHERE NEAR hall of fame level

148 wins?

he needs to get atlest to the 300 level for consideration

 

[Mancini0518]

What, the bum hand that caused him to miss a few games early on? I could be wrong, but I don't recall that being an issue past the early part of the season.

thomas had off season hip surgery.

 

[Hardyvan123]

I don't know if it's been mentioned already but the difference between Thomas and #2 on the sv% list is as big as the difference between #2 and #20. How is that not "head and shoulders" above the rest? At this point in the season, that's a huge lead.

You didn't read the whole quote, only part of it, yes Thomas is 1st in save % but his backup is 7th and the other goalies I listed are playing on far weaker teams overall.

The overall stats and the strength and weakness of their teams will come into consideration in the minds of voters, especially if Thomas slips a little bit, which I think he will eventually.

 

[Sens Rule]

You didn't read the whole quote, only part of it, yes Thomas is 1st in save % but his backup is 7th and the other goalies I listed are playing on far weaker teams overall.

The overall stats and the strength and weakness of their teams will come into consideration in the minds of voters, especially if Thomas slips a little bit, which I think he will eventually.

Doubtful. Voters are not computers taking every little detail into account.

Voters? Thomas is good he won the Vezina before. He also leads the NHL in shutouts, Goals Against Average and Save Percentage. His face is all over the leader boards on NHL.com. I think he will have a near unanimous or actually unanimous selection for Vezina and 1st team All-Star unless he has a horrendous drop off in the rest of the season.

 

[tarheelhockey]

For those that want to read one of the best written pieces on Tim Thomas, read this article from Kirk Luedeke, who we on the Bruins board are privileged to have post often on our boards.

http://kirkscall.hockeyjournal.com/2010/10/no-doubting-thomas/

Reading that makes me wonder how many other would-be #1 goalies are lost in the organizational politics of the NHL.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I'll back off my original implication that Thomas winning the Vezina this year would be a poor decision by the voters. I've thought Thomas was over-rated since he won the Vezina two seasons ago (I've cited that decision, and Mike Green nearly beating Chara for the Norris the same year as the point at which I stopped giving awards voting credibility), and I probably carried too much of that sentiment in here when I saw "Thomas for HOF" in the thread title. There's no doubt he has performed very well this season for the most part.

I do maintain that the numbers from the past three years oversell him, however. And this harkens back to my previous post about the timing and style of goals allowed ruining games that, statistically, he was very good in.



I guess it depends how you'd classify a bad goal. Is getting caught way out of position or failing to corral a rebound that should have been swallowed considered a bad goal? That's open to interpretation. Is it considered a preventable goal? Definitely.

I don't want to appear as though I'm crapping on the guy to no end, but how many of Thomas' nine-bell saves are really fairly routine saves if the goaltender is positioned properly? How often does it appear the Bruins broke down defensively by allowing five shots and finally a goal in a sequence, yet that sequence began by Thomas misplaying the puck or not controlling a rebound?

I don't know, I don't keep a tally, but it seems to happen with regularity when I've watched Bruins games during the Thomas era.

This is understandable.

The HOF never even crossed my mind for TT until I saw this thread. He could end this season with Hasek-like numbers and would still be a long shot at best for the Hall.

But just considering this season (thus far) he's been remarkable. He has 4 regulation loses and if that's not all about him you would have to think the Bruins are a great team, which they are not.

 

[tony d]

Thomas is a great goalie but he was a late bloomer so I doubt very much that he makes it into the Hall of Fame.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

His biggest problem in winning the Hart this year is that he is not head and shoulders better than the next 5 guys on the save % list as Rinne, Lundqvist, Palvelic and Hiller are all number 1 goalies on weaker teams that are also having great seasons.

I left Varlamov off the list because he hasn't played enough to be considered the lock number 1 goalie in Washington yet this season.

The bottom line is that Thomas is going to have some pretty serious competition for being the best goalie never mind the MVP this year.

.945 is not heads and shoulders better than .930?

The same differencial (.930 to .915) encompasses 18 goalies.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

You didn't read the whole quote, only part of it, yes Thomas is 1st in save % but his backup is 7th and the other goalies I listed are playing on far weaker teams overall. The overall stats and the strength and weakness of their teams will come into consideration in the minds of voters, especially if Thomas slips a little bit, which I think he will eventually.

You should watch the Bruins more. They are not that good.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

What's the standard for success?

In 2008, Boston generally outplayed Montreal, but lost in 7 games. Price outplaying Thomas was the difference.In 2009 the first place Bruins got bounced early by Carolina. Thomas wasn't any worse than many of his teammates, but it wasn't exactly a Vezina-caliber showing.

In 2010 he lost his job to a rookie, albeit a rookie who played fantastic. Still, how many Vezina winners get relegated to the bench immediately following their trophy season?

Remains to be seen what 2011 will bring in April and May.

Thomas has yet to show that he can lead a team to any measure of success in the playoffs, and that's pretty damn important for a supposedly elite goaltender on a good team. Much less one who's name has been used in the same sentence as "Hall of Fame", however dubious that may be. Being the king of regular season save% only gets you so far. (Though apparently a lot further in most people's books as compared to mine.)

The 8th seed Bruins generally outplayed the 1st seed Canadiens, but lost because of Thomas? Really?

 

[BraveCanadian]

.945 is not heads and shoulders better than .930?

The same differencial (.930 to .915) encompasses 18 goalies.

Not to mention that the higher your save percentage gets, like with most things, it just gets exponentially harder as you go.

.945 is a hugely bigger difference over .930 than .930 is to .915

.945 is mind boggling.. it shouldn't even be humanly possible. We're talking like 163 assists sort of accomplishment if he can maintain it.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

Thomas was great in the series against Carolina. He had a .934 save percentage and faced 31 shots on average in just that series alone. Those are Vezina-type numbers.

Yes, they're Vezina-type numbers. I watched all 7 games of the series. Thomas was decent. Certainly not the culprit for the losses, nor the catalyst for the wins.

Thomas had a degenerating hip going into the 2008-2009 year. He and his trainer discovered while doing yoga in the offseason before his Vezina year that he was unable to do a couple of simple stretches. He was able to play through it but last season he tweaked it making a save against ( Toronto I think ) and it effected his play for the rest of the year and Rask took over. His start to the 2009-2010 season was Vezina-caliber before the hip injury.

Thanks, I'd forgotten about the hip.

The 8th seed Bruins generally outplayed the 1st seed Canadiens, but lost because of Thomas? Really?

What do you feel the difference in the series was? I didn't say they lost because of Thomas, but in a close series the tipping point was Montreal's good goaltending versus Boston's average goaltending. IMO, of course.

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Isn't it the Hockey Hall of Fame, not the nhl hall of fame? So all his Finnish hockey awards, among others, would factor in?

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Yes, they're Vezina-type numbers. I watched all 7 games of the series. Thomas was decent. Certainly not the culprit for the losses, nor the catalyst for the wins.



Thanks, I'd forgotten about the hip.



What do you feel the difference in the series was? I didn't say they lost because of Thomas, but in a close series the tipping point was Montreal's good goaltending versus Boston's average goaltending. IMO, of course.

I thought they lost because Montreal was a much better team.

Montreal led the league in goals scored that year. Boston was 25th. Think Thomas might have had a little tougher job than Price?

 

[Jumptheshark]

come on people

one or two good seasons don't make for a hall of fame call

if he puts together 10 years of 30+ wins and gets a few stanley cup rings then yes--the guy has under 200 wins--he is nowhere near a hall of fame player

 

[BraveCanadian]

I thought they lost because Montreal was a much better team.

Montreal led the league in goals scored that year. Boston was 25th. Think Thomas might have had a little tougher job than Price?

You're a "choker" until you have won and then you're "clutch".

 

[Sens Rule]

You're a "choker" until you have won and then you're "clutch".

That could be the title of a Steve Yzerman made for TV Movie!