Confirmed with Link: Tim Burke promoted to Assistant GM DWJR to Dir. of Scouting

[OrrNumber4]

I don’t know how many times I have to tell you that games played is a terrible measurement of draft success because it rewards picking fourth liners and third pairing D the same as it does picking all-stars.

I'm not saying it is the end-all-be-all of measurements. But it has some significance. You can't be this terrible head scout with numbers like that.

Since 2008, literally a decade ago, the Sharks have drafted Coyle, Nieto, Kuraly, DeMelo, Ryan, Tierney, Hertl, Labanc, and Meier who have become marginally successful NHLers. That’s four top-6 forwards if you count Labanc (two of them top-17 picks) and one maaaybe top-4 D in Ryan. The jury is still out on Balcers, Gambrell, etc., but that list is brutal. In the same span, even ignoring early first rounders, Tampa has drafted Vasilevsky, Johnson, Palat, Kucherov, Point, Gudas, Paquette, Dotchin, Gusev, and Namestnikov. Anaheim has drafted Montour, Theodore, Kase, Rakell, Gibson, Manson, W. Karlsson, Andersen, Fowler, Smith-Pelly, Palmieri, and Vatanen. We haven’t even had a “Pavelski” type of mid-late round hit like St. Louis with Parayko, Ottawa with Mark Stone, Florida with Trocheck.

Burke has had 7 first-round-picks (one top-10) and 10 2nd-round-picks in that time span. Tampa has had 11 first-round-picks (5 top-5) and 14 2nd-round-picks. Anaheim has had 13 first-round-picks (2 top-10) and 15 2nd-round-picks.

Neither list is uber-compelling when you include the Vegas factor. Looking at topish-end talent after the top-5 in the draft, the Sharks have Meier, Hertl, Coyle, Demers, and Labanc vs. Vasilevsky, Palat, Kucherov, Point and Gardiner, Vatanen, Palmieri, Fowler, Rakell, and Gibson...

I would definitely take Tampa's over the Sharks, but that isn't saying much. One team's drafting over the Sharks's in the past ten years makes Burke terrible? Not to mention that the drafting success of those teams was with 30-50% more (and higher-quality) draft picks.

Burke gets dropkicked out of the scouting department for blowing four first round picks in a row and people are still here defending him. Incredible.

The problem is is that you don't really know. Barzal has had one amazing season. So have numerous other players before they crashed down to Earth. The jury is still out on Norris, Meier, and even Goldobin. Even Mueller is looking like a decent bottom-pairing D-man.

 

[Helistin]

Yeah and I wouldn't want those people making decisions for the Sharks either. What others do in the draft doesn't make it ok that we passed on him for "Burke" type pick in Meier that a lot of people felt was a reach for 9th overall

Well sure , it would be optimal if every player drafted would be the best player available every single time. But in reality it doesn't work like that no matter who is in charge of the drafting.
Even the Islanders drafting has been putrid for many years.

 

[hohosaregood]

This site has morphed into something I no longer enjoy.
I find myself wondering why some of you even take the time to follow this team. There is so much derision. So much contempt. Downing people because your opinion can be supported by some numbers or hindsight then stating it as fact is depressing to me.
Discussing a sports team shouldn’t make strangers angry at each other. I’ve become upset when some of you have labeled me as a “blind fan.” That shouldn’t happen. I am a fan. I cheer and support my team.
This doesn’t make me “right” but in saying so, I am not out to make myself better or more informed. I am certain no one here truly knows more than the management, the coaches, the scouts and the players but that doesn’t stop some of you from standing atop the mountain and shouting that your thoughts are more than that.
I don’t want to stop coming to this site but I never feel good once I sign off. I can’t discuss Josh Norris because I’ll be buried under how terrible he is and how stupid the scouts are for picking him. Especially from those who have never watched him play.
I just don’t understand it.

It's too early to judge those picks right now really. They aren't ideal picks but who knows which guy comes out on top in 3 years. <5 years from a draft is a rough time period to judge a prospect. Like Barzal could go through 5 concussions and 4 knee injuries in the next two years while simultaneously finding out he's not anywhere near good enough to carry a team by himself and then he just end up like Tim Connolly or something.

 

[Beethovens 10th]

Tampa and Anaheim have drafted really well since 2008. They’ve also been to the same number of Stanley Cup finals as we have combined, with the same number of championships to boot (since ‘08). I don’t care much for Burke but c’mon, we’re in decent position here. As far as I can tell we’re better than Anaheim even with Burke’s mistakes, and if the 2018 Caps ended up being their one championship team over the last decade of juggernaut Caps teams then there’s hope for us yet! It’s sunny out there folks, put on your teal colored glasses!
Let’s go Shaaarrr-arrrrks.

 

[tahoesharksfan]

is this the "fired without really being fired" move.

What's generally known as a “sideways promotion”.....

 

[Mattb124]

So much "How many times do I need to remind you my opinion is fact and you must accept it.....and your opinion is **** and you must accept that too".

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Do we even know how much input Burke had with later round selections. Seems like that's when all head scouts would just listen to the regional scouts

 

[Kcoyote3]

I do love that the Islanders are given so much credit for drafting Barzal despite the fact that with 4 top 5 picks since 2010 they have drafted:

Nino Niedereitter
Ryan Strome
Griffin f'ing Reinhart
Michael Dal Colle

One is not the in the NHL, one can't even crack .5 PPG in the AHL, one is a decent second liner, and one is a third liner.

Amazing production from top 5 picks.

Meanwhile they passed up on:

Skinner
Tarasenko
Zibanejad
Schiefele
Couturier
Hamilton
Rielly
Lindholm
Trouba
Dumba
Forsberg
Hertl
Nylander
Ehlers

all drafted within 10 or so picks of their picks in the top 5.

 

[Maladroit]

The problem is is that you don't really know. Barzal has had one amazing season. So have numerous other players before they crashed down to Earth. The jury is still out on Norris, Meier, and even Goldobin. Even Mueller is looking like a decent bottom-pairing D-man.

Mueller is looking like a decent bottom pairing defenseman? That's news to me considering he couldn't crack the worst blueline in the NHL this year. He's a complete bust as was blatantly obvious at the time of the draft given his very low level of offensive production in junior. Burke convinced Wilson to spend a 2nd round pick to trade up two spots to take this guy.

Meier is a fine player. You can't settle for "fine players" at ninth overall especially when you're running a team like the Sharks that never ever picks there. The only point of the draft is to land high-end talent. There is no excuse for ever picking a player who you don't believe to have the highest potential upside of everyone still available. Meier is solid but it's not like you can't sign Patrick Maroon for $3mil/year a week into free agency to do everything Meier does. You will never land a Barzal-like player outside of the draft.

The bottom line is that we could have Barzal, Fabbri and Mantha to build around up front for the next ten years if Burke had simply made the obvious pick at our slot. He didn't and now we have nothing even approaching first line/first pairing talent in the system (except maybe Merkley who appears to be the first pick of the post-Burke era).

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Mueller is looking like a decent bottom pairing defenseman? That's news to me considering he couldn't crack the worst blueline in the NHL this year. He's a complete bust as was blatantly obvious at the time of the draft given his very low level of offensive production in junior. Burke convinced Wilson to spend a 2nd round pick to trade up two spots to take this guy.

Meier is a fine player. You can't settle for "fine players" at ninth overall especially when you're running a team like the Sharks that never ever picks there. The only point of the draft is to land high-end talent. There is no excuse for ever picking a player who you don't believe to have the highest potential upside of everyone still available. Meier is solid but it's not like you can't sign Patrick Maroon for $3mil/year a week into free agency to do everything Meier does. You will never land a Barzal-like player outside of the draft.

The bottom line is that we could have Barzal, Fabbri and Mantha to build around up front for the next ten years if Burke had simply made the obvious pick at our slot. He didn't and now we have nothing even approaching first line/first pairing talent in the system (except maybe Merkley who appears to be the first pick of the post-Burke era).

You’re taking the hyperbole too far. Meier, is first line talent and at age 21, he is far better than Patrick Maroon ever has been and ever will be.

 

[spintops]

Random side note - It still blows me away that Boston had 3 straight picks in 2015 and passed on Kyle Connor/Barzal as well. Different GM then 2015 that got Pastarnak, but really shows you win some and you lose some.

 

[DG93]

Random side note - It still blows me away that Boston had 3 straight picks in 2015 and passed on Kyle Connor/Barzal as well. Different GM then 2015 that got Pastarnak, but really shows you win some and you lose some.

Can you imagine if they drafted Connor, Barzal and Boeser/Konecny with those 3 picks? Marchand-Bergeron-Boeser, Connor-Barzal-Pastrnak top-6 is insane...

 

[spintops]

Can you imagine if they drafted Connor, Barzal and Boeser/Konecny with those 3 picks? Marchand-Bergeron-Boeser, Connor-Barzal-Pastrnak top-6 is insane...

Basically could have had a really good 2nd line out of that one round lol.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Basically could have had a really good 2nd line out of that one round lol.

Connor-Barzal-Boeser would be an elite 1st line.

 

[Maladroit]

You’re taking the hyperbole too far. Meier, is first line talent and at age 21, he is far better than Patrick Maroon ever has been and ever will be.

What's a realistic expectation for Meier next season? 20 goals, 40 points, good possession numbers, some physical play? Maroon might not quite hit those numbers but he can certainly provide a reasonable facsimile for zero cost in terms of assets and in all likelihood a manageable cap hit considering he's available on the UFA scrap heap a week after July 1st. My point was that it's completely impossible to acquire even a reasonable facsimile of Barzal, Rantanen or Connor without paying through the nose.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

What's a realistic expectation for Meier next season? 20 goals, 40 points, good possession numbers, some physical play? Maroon might not quite hit those numbers but he can certainly provide a reasonable facsimile for zero cost in terms of assets and in all likelihood a manageable cap hit considering he's available on the UFA scrap heap a week after July 1st. My point was that it's completely impossible to acquire even a reasonable facsimile of Barzal, Rantanen or Connor without paying through the nose.

Meier just did that. I see no reason for Meier’s numbers to stagnate when his numbers this season were better after he was taken off the 4th line and started producing well. I’m expecting at least 25-30 goals and at least 50-60 points for Meier next season.

 

[Maladroit]

Meier just did that. I see no reason for Meier’s numbers to stagnate when his numbers this season were better after he was taken off the 4th line and started producing well. I’m expecting at least 25-30 goals and at least 50-60 points for Meier next season.

I think you're gonna end up very disappointed. Hertl has never scored at that level and he was a much better player at Meier's age than Meier is now. Meier is probably getting third line minutes and minimal if any power play time, I'd be surprised if he scores more than 45 points in a full season.

 

[hohosaregood]

Timo's already playing at a 45 point pace. Kinda doubt this is where he tops out.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think you're gonna end up very disappointed. Hertl has never scored at that level and he was a much better player at Meier's age than Meier is now. Meier is probably getting third line minutes and minimal if any power play time, I'd be surprised if he scores more than 45 points in a full season.

Hertl at Meier’s age had 13 goals and 18 assists. Hertl’s D+2 year is where he was significantly better than Meier’s D+2 year but it’s important to consider that Hertl’s worst linemate in his D+2 year (Burns) would be the best forward Meier has ever played with. If Meier was playing with 2014’s Thornton-Burns or 2016’s Thornton-Pavelski for 82 games, I have no doubt that he would have scored 25-30 goals and 50-60 points this year.

It’s possible that Meier won’t reach those numbers but if that ends up being the case, it will be because the coach forced him into 3rd line minutes that he is clearly too good for.

Remember, Meier was 2nd on the team in 5V5 points this year. The highest Hertl has ever finished was 3rd, he did it in his D+3 season (this upcoming season for Meier), and he mostly did it because he was playing with the Joes.

 

[SoftDumpInTheCorner]

Yeah and I wouldn't want those people making decisions for the Sharks either. What others do in the draft doesn't make it ok that we passed on him for "Burke" type pick in Meier that a lot of people felt was a reach for 9th overall

In the redrafts I’ve read, it has us picking Brock Boeser

 

[do0glas]

Lets be real here. Meier has a great shot at 60 points this season.

Im infinitely more worried about hertls ability to produce than meier. I hope we see that meier is closer to barzal than we think. Ive seen meier hold the puck amd dominate the ice just lije barzal. They do it differently, but if we see barzal not able to take on the heavy load their point totals may get closer.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I'm not saying it is the end-all-be-all of measurements. But it has some significance. You can't be this terrible head scout with numbers like that.



Burke has had 7 first-round-picks (one top-10) and 10 2nd-round-picks in that time span. Tampa has had 11 first-round-picks (5 top-5) and 14 2nd-round-picks. Anaheim has had 13 first-round-picks (2 top-10) and 15 2nd-round-picks.

Neither list is uber-compelling when you include the Vegas factor. Looking at topish-end talent after the top-5 in the draft, the Sharks have Meier, Hertl, Coyle, Demers, and Labanc vs. Vasilevsky, Palat, Kucherov, Point and Gardiner, Vatanen, Palmieri, Fowler, Rakell, and Gibson...

I would definitely take Tampa's over the Sharks, but that isn't saying much. One team's drafting over the Sharks's in the past ten years makes Burke terrible? Not to mention that the drafting success of those teams was with 30-50% more (and higher-quality) draft picks.

You do realize that I DELIBERATELY didn’t include Tampa and Anaheim’s too-10 picks, right? I deliberately did not include Stamkos, Hedman, Drouin, Lindholm (who was god-tier scouting), and Ritchie, because I knew that wouldn’t be fair.

I cut it off at 2008 because I will readily admit that before 2008, Burke did an excellent job drafting. I thought that was abundantly clear. “After 2008” is not an arbitrary cut-off, it’s when his drafting tanked.

The Sharks have never drafted anything like Fowler, Kucherov, Point, Johnson, Rakell, Gibson, or W. Karlsson. The best player we’ve drafted in ten whole years is Tomas Hertl. I love Hertl with my whole entire heart and will be the first to admit that I can be a little biased when it comes to discussing him, but he isn’t on the level of Kucherov, Point, Rakell, or Karlsson. Only one of those guys was a first round pick and he was like 30th overall or something.

Again, to be clear: I’ll gladly cede that Burke was a great drafter before 2008. But the further and further away we get from that time period, the less and less relevant it gets. You just cannot defend a guy’s record when his succcesses are a decade old. His past decade’s results are poor and that’s much more relevant than Pavelski.

I don’t know why we keep arguing this, since we have multiple times before and obviously neither of us is changing our mind. The only thing I’m surprised about is that you didn’t whip out the Matt Carle Cautionary Tale.

So much "How many times do I need to remind you my opinion is fact and you must accept it.....and your opinion is **** and you must accept that too".

Less than I have to read “Doug Wilson is God and Jesus combined and has never done anything worthy of criticism”.

 

[hohosaregood]

DW Jr is my new God thank you very much and has done nothing worth criticizing

 

[Roasted Nuts]

Mueller is looking like a decent bottom pairing defenseman? That's news to me considering he couldn't crack the worst blueline in the NHL this year. He's a complete bust as was blatantly obvious at the time of the draft given his very low level of offensive production in junior. Burke convinced Wilson to spend a 2nd round pick to trade up two spots to take this guy.

Meier is a fine player. You can't settle for "fine players" at ninth overall especially when you're running a team like the Sharks that never ever picks there. The only point of the draft is to land high-end talent. There is no excuse for ever picking a player who you don't believe to have the highest potential upside of everyone still available. Meier is solid but it's not like you can't sign Patrick Maroon for $3mil/year a week into free agency to do everything Meier does. You will never land a Barzal-like player outside of the draft.

The bottom line is that we could have Barzal, Fabbri and Mantha to build around up front for the next ten years if Burke had simply made the obvious pick at our slot. He didn't and now we have nothing even approaching first line/first pairing talent in the system (except maybe Merkley who appears to be the first pick of the post-Burke era).

I do agree that the Sharks need to prioritize talent when drafting, but don't we also need affordable depth players to fill out the roster? Considering that we only pick late, many of the higher potential players that are available will have little chance of making the NHL. So it's better to draft players that will make the roster and are affordable. It's also expensive to sign depth players through free agency. Didn't Wilson just offload Boedker who was overpaid at 4 million? Sure we need talent, but we also need to take advantage of cheap ELC.

 

[Mattb124]

What's a realistic expectation for Meier next season? 20 goals, 40 points, good possession numbers, some physical play? Maroon might not quite hit those numbers but he can certainly provide a reasonable facsimile for zero cost in terms of assets and in all likelihood a manageable cap hit considering he's available on the UFA scrap heap a week after July 1st. My point was that it's completely impossible to acquire even a reasonable facsimile of Barzal, Rantanen or Connor without paying through the nose.

2 points:
Based on Meier's 2018 production and development trajectory, 20/40 is more a reasonable floor than a reasonable expectation.

The Sharks did not pay through the nose for Thorton or Burns, so the notion it is completely impossible to get a player in that echelon without paying through the nose is more hyperbole. And both of them have pulled together more than one good season. Time will tell whether Barzal is what people thinks he is.