Thoughts on the Rebuild? PART 3

[GCK]

doesnt have to be a hot start. At this point anyone here would take an average start. We don't need countless defensive breakdowns where guys are walking in picking corners on our net.

An average start would be well welcomed here....

Not much corner picking required early on the last few years.

 

[HSF]

Not much corner picking required early on the last few years.

goaltending hasn't been great but I would say our team defense has been worse. Just my opinion during games. Lots of times where lines get hemmed in our zone

 

[GCK]

goaltending hasn't been great but I would say our team defense has been worse. Just my opinion during games. Lots of times where lines get hemmed in our zone

I can’t get the memories of Hogberg off his angles by more than 2 feet or Murray unable to catch a puck out of my head. By far the worst goaltending I have ever seen in the NHL was the Sens starts over the past 2 seasons.

 

[HSF]

I can’t get the memories of Hogberg off his angles by more than 2 feet or Murray unable to catch a puck out of my head. By far the worst goaltending I have ever seen in the NHL was the Sens starts over the past 2 seasons.

let me refresh your memories

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I can’t get the memories of Hogberg off his angles by more than 2 feet or Murray unable to catch a puck out of my head. By far the worst goaltending I have ever seen in the NHL was the Sens starts over the past 2 seasons.

I for one am ecstatic that I don't have to watch Matt Murray this year. Enjoy Toronto.

 

[Micklebot]

I can’t get the memories of Hogberg off his angles by more than 2 feet or Murray unable to catch a puck out of my head. By far the worst goaltending I have ever seen in the NHL was the Sens starts over the past 2 seasons.

It was bizarre how bad Hogberg looked, that was probably some of the worst goaltending I can remember this team having.

 

[JD1]

There's various valid reasons for our slow starts the past two seasons. Super young core. No exhibition. Big roster turnover. COVID.

Our core is gaining in experience. The players are pretty familiar with one another and the systems. There are 3 players that need to gel on the roster and learn the systems: Giroux, DeBrincat and Sanderson. They are all high IQ players. Obviously Talbot has to learn the D tendencies but you can also work him in slowly.

Unless there are a shit ton of camp injuries, we should be good to go at the drop of the puck. No excuses

 

[Cosmix]

doesnt have to be a hot start. At this point anyone here would take an average start. We don't need countless defensive breakdowns where guys are walking in picking corners on our net.

An average start would be well welcomed here....

Is an "average start" equal to 1 point per game played? 82 points over 82 games does not mean the team will make the playoffs. I suspect anything less than 1 point per game will get DJ fired by Xmas as a sacrificial lamb for Dorion to keep his GM position.

We need 1.17 points per game to get to 96 points for the season which should mean a playoff position.

 

[PatrickEaves]

We should also note that our schedule is relatively light early one, and gets heavier as the season goes on. We have like 3 back to backs in February or something like that, so if we're talking about pushing for a playoff spot, we kinda have to be ahead of the pack early because our "scheduled losses" are all in the back half of our season.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Last year was the first one where it felt like they underachieved a bit and other circumstances were enough of a factor to matter, like Covid. The other years were about as expected based on the rosters. I have high hopes for this season.

 

[DrEasy]

Is an "average start" equal to 1 point per game played? 82 points over 82 games does not mean the team will make the playoffs. I suspect anything less than 1 point per game will get DJ fired by Xmas as a sacrificial lamb for Dorion to keep his GM position.

We need 1.17 points per game to get to 96 points for the season which should mean a playoff position.

The loser point makes things a bit more complicated. You definitely need more than 1 pt per game to even be considered an average team. Basically an average team would win half the games that are tied during regulation time. Then it's a matter of how many games are a tie to begin with.

 

[DrEasy]

The loser point makes things a bit more complicated. You definitely need more than 1 pt per game to even be considered an average team. Basically an average team would win half the games that are tied during regulation time. Then it's a matter of how many games are a tie to begin with.

To follow up, let's take a very average team that wins 27 games, loses 27 games and goes to OT in 27 games (that's 81 games, but whatever), and then manages to win half of the OT games. So that's:

27 x 2 = 54 pts for wins in regular play
27 x 0 = 0 pts for losses in regular play
13.5 x 1 = 13.5 pts for OT losses
13.5 x 2 = 27 pts for OT wins

total is 94.5 pts, which is very close to your estimate of 96 to reach the playoffs usually, which makes sense since half the teams make the playoffs in the NHL, and so a very average team would be right on that line.

So yeah, I agree with you! Anything below such a pace might get DJ canned, whether he's at fault or not.

 

[thinkwild]

To follow up, let's take a very average team that wins 27 games, loses 27 games and goes to OT in 27 games (that's 81 games, but whatever), and then manages to win half of the OT games. So that's:

27 x 2 = 54 pts for wins in regular play
27 x 0 = 0 pts for losses in regular play
13.5 x 1 = 13.5 pts for OT losses
13.5 x 2 = 27 pts for OT wins

total is 94.5 pts, which is very close to your estimate of 96 to reach the playoffs usually, which makes sense since half the teams make the playoffs in the NHL, and so a very average team would be right on that line.

So yeah, I agree with you! Anything below such a pace might get DJ canned, whether he's at fault or not.

Whether he's at fault or not? That is my fear. That we arent going to determine the problem and find the best solution to address it, but rather will make a PR move from an old playbook to satiate the angry. It would imply that even though Melnyk is gone, Melnykism lives on. I sure hope it doesnt happen that way.

But i dont want to take the pressure off the players and coaches either. There should be pressure. I hope they feel it. I expect them to eat it for breakfast and spit it out during warm up. But if they get off to a horrendous start, i hope the best hockey decisions are made to address it. Not fire someone whether they deserve it or not. That wouldnt be a ticket buying incentive for me.

 

[JD1]

Whether he's at fault or not? That is my fear. That we arent going to determine the problem and find the best solution to address it, but rather will make a PR move from an old playbook to satiate the angry. It would imply that even though Melnyk is gone, Melnykism lives on. I sure hope it doesnt happen that way.

But i dont want to take the pressure off the players and coaches either. There should be pressure. I hope they feel it. I expect them to eat it for breakfast and spit it out during warm up. But if they get off to a horrendous start, i hope the best hockey decisions are made to address it. Not fire someone whether they deserve it or not. That wouldnt be a ticket buying incentive for me.

Geez the way you've worded this it sounds like Melnykism is a thing amongst the perpetually angry fan base.

Look back at the past two years

Two years ago. Major roster changes. Virtually no training camp. No exhibition season

Last year. Significant injuries out of the gate and a COVID outbreak that we played through.

This year. Less roster change. A return to normal. Normal camp. Normal exhibition. The core coming off a 60 game run at an 85 pace.

There's no reason to repeat the start of the past two years unless we get ravaged by injuries in camp.

It's almost like guys in here have to make things up to worry about

 

[thinkwild]

Geez the way you've worded this it sounds like Melnykism is a thing amongst the perpetually angry fan base.

Look back at the past two years

Two years ago. Major roster changes. Virtually no training camp. No exhibition season

Last year. Significant injuries out of the gate and a COVID outbreak that we played through.

This year. Less roster change. A return to normal. Normal camp. Normal exhibition. The core coming off a 60 game run at an 85 pace.

There's no reason to repeat the start of the past two years unless we get ravaged by injuries in camp.

It's almost like guys in here have to make things up to worry about

Geez the way you've worded that it sounds like defending Melynk is a thing. But other than that, yeah i agree with you. Im going to hope i dont have to worry about it cause im for sure not angry.

 

[Cosmix]

Whether he's at fault or not? That is my fear. That we arent going to determine the problem and find the best solution to address it, but rather will make a PR move from an old playbook to satiate the angry. It would imply that even though Melnyk is gone, Melnykism lives on. I sure hope it doesnt happen that way.

But i dont want to take the pressure off the players and coaches either. There should be pressure. I hope they feel it. I expect them to eat it for breakfast and spit it out during warm up. But if they get off to a horrendous start, i hope the best hockey decisions are made to address it. Not fire someone whether they deserve it or not. That wouldnt be a ticket buying incentive for me.

The architect of the roster is the one who should be held responsible.

 

[HSF]

Is an "average start" equal to 1 point per game played? 82 points over 82 games does not mean the team will make the playoffs. I suspect anything less than 1 point per game will get DJ fired by Xmas as a sacrificial lamb for Dorion to keep his GM position.

We need 1.17 points per game to get to 96 points for the season which should mean a playoff position.

need to atleast keep pace with bubble teams and get hot at some point in the season

It is going to be a hard division for sure. Even MTL won't be easy

 

[GCK]

need to atleast keep pace with bubble teams and get hot at some point in the season

It is going to be a hard division for sure. Even MTL won't be easy

At least the top 4 teams in the division each took a step back.

 

[ksens]

Whether he's at fault or not? That is my fear. That we arent going to determine the problem and find the best solution to address it, but rather will make a PR move from an old playbook to satiate the angry. It would imply that even though Melnyk is gone, Melnykism lives on. I sure hope it doesnt happen that way.

But i dont want to take the pressure off the players and coaches either. There should be pressure. I hope they feel it. I expect them to eat it for breakfast and spit it out during warm up. But if they get off to a horrendous start, i hope the best hockey decisions are made to address it. Not fire someone whether they deserve it or not. That wouldnt be a ticket buying incentive for me.

At this point the core of the roster is locked in and we're expected to compete with this core.

If that isn't happening you can bet there will be coaching changes, and possibly small changes around the perimeter of the roster. Dorion doesn't have any other levers to pull, there are no other "hockey decisions" to make and he'd be trying to save his own ass at that point.

I hope we are competitive out of the gate and as fans get to watch meaningful hockey this season, and we are not talking about coaching changes. But if we start slow again you can certainly expect it.

 

[Loach]

At this point the core of the roster is locked in and we're expected to compete with this core.

If that isn't happening you can bet there will be coaching changes, and possibly small changes around the perimeter of the roster. Dorion doesn't have any other levers to pull, there are no other "hockey decisions" to make and he'd be trying to save his own ass at that point.

I hope we are competitive out of the gate and as fans get to watch meaningful hockey this season, and we are not talking about coaching changes. But if we start slow again you can certainly expect it.

Assistant Coaches might change to give DJ help.

 

[aragorn]

Didn't all of the teams that made the playoffs last yr in our division & in our conference have over 100 pts?

 

[Tragedy]

Didn't all of the teams that made the playoffs last yr in our division & in our conference have over 100 pts?

Sure but you have to remember those points are coming from somewhere. When you have several terrible teams in the conference, the balance of points is going to be top heavy. Ottawa, Detroit, Buffalo should all be better than they were last season balancing out those highs and lows in points in the conference

 

[SlapJack]

Sure but you have to remember those points are coming from somewhere. When you have several terrible teams in the conference, the balance of points is going to be top heavy. Ottawa, Detroit, Buffalo should all be better than they were last season balancing out those highs and lows in points in the conference

I honestly think that on average there will be 10 points shaved off the top 8 teams in the east from last year. Boston, Washington, Florida, and Tampa have either significant injuries or loss of personnel, and Toronto has Matt Murray. Meanwhile, Ottawa, Detroit, New Jersey, Buffalo, and Columbus have upgraded their teams. Will definitely have more parity in the east this season.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

I know I shouldn't get cocky, but it feels like the Sens are getting under estimated due to people looking at their past seasons rather than the team they have today.

 

[Union2017]

I know one thing.... if we suck this year, I will not be blaming GMPD. He really did his work this summer and set us up to succeed. Yes, we are still missing that 4D, but....