Thoughts on the rebuild? PART 2

[Sensinitis]

Rebuild’s going pretty well imo. Add a top 5 pick and another high 2nd rounder to our prospect pool in 2020 and we’ll have an amazing foundation.

Chabot-Brannstrom-Thomson-JBD-Wolanin-Jaros-Lajoie is great on the back-end...

Sogaard-Gustavsson-Daccord-Hogberg is great in nets. Best depth in that position in Sens history, ainec.

Tkachuk-Batherson-Brown-White-Norris-Duclair-Formenton-Pinto-Davidsson-Abramov-Balcers-Crookshank is very deep for the forwards. There’s a top end center missing there for our prospect pool to be truly elite, but if Brown pans out that won’t even be necessary. When all is said and done we can probably add another top C or W in 2020 though.

The only question mark is if FYOUS is actually a thing. If it is this team can be playoff contending in 20-21 imo, and a perennial playoff team the year after and on.

 

[Spartachat]

Again, a third round pick has about a 30% of ever making the NHL.
No big loss.

The Money saved, by not paying the bonus money, pays for Ron Hainsey.

So it could be seen as a third round pick for Hainsey ..............who could very well be traded at the TDL, for another pick, perhaps even a 3rd.

Why so many tears have been shed for this 3rd round pick is mind boggling. NHL GMs trade picks for similar and other reasons ................. but for some people, its almost like the end world, as we know it.

I guess this explains why Dorion gives out picks like candy. LOL

 

[Sens]

Again, a third round pick has about a 30% of ever making the NHL.
No big loss.

The Money saved, by not paying the bonus money, pays for Ron Hainsey.

So it could be seen as a third round pick for Hainsey ..............who could very well be traded at the TDL, for another pick, perhaps even a 3rd.

Why so many tears have been shed for this 3rd round pick is mind boggling. NHL GMs trade picks for similar and other reasons ................. but for some people, its almost like the end world, as we know it.

It’s not the first time the teams sold pick for money... every move this club makes is saving a buck

It’s a tired theme and I’m not giving them the benefit of doubt... Chabots gone... I’m either right or they will prove me wrong

 

[Tuna99]

Long way to go in the rebuild. So much of this depends on how the prospects develop - if a player like Batherson turns into a Pavelski type instead of a Michalek / Formenton turns into a Silfverberg and not a Curtis Lazar / Thomson turns into a Wade Redden and not a Cody Ceci you are miles and miles ahead.

But the talent isn’t in the system at forward to proceed with growth that gets you to be a perennial playoff team. Some players, but there’s no PP QB, no #1 line outside of Chucky and no goaltender.

And contracts - if Chabot doesn’t stick around or Tkachuk wants $11.5 million next summer - no faith we’ll keep it together.

Sens have us focused I. These 2 weeks when in Reality the $$$ handed out to Chucky, Chabot, Jaros and Batherson will dictate the rebuild and not a 3rd or 2nd round draft pick

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

It’s not the first time the teams sold pick for money... every move this club makes is saving a buck

It’s a tired theme and I’m not giving them the benefit of doubt... Chabots gone... I’m either right or they will prove me wrong

You're wrong.

Take it to the bank.

 

[HSF]

need a top 4 draft pick and get that top line fwd

 

[Spartachat]

You're wrong.

Take it to the bank.

Even if a team gives an offer sheet with huge front-loaded signing bonuses that go through the year with the potential lockout?

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

When does the current CBA expire? Would it not be June 30?

 

[Tuna99]

You're wrong.

Take it to the bank.

Montreal will offer sheet Chabot with an $15 million dollar signing bonus in year 1. There’s just no way.

Team is vulnerable in every way, but mostly no one wants to play here long term

 

[Icelevel]

Again, a third round pick has about a 30% of ever making the NHL.
No big loss.

The Money saved, by not paying the bonus money, pays for Ron Hainsey.

So it could be seen as a third round pick for Hainsey ..............who could very well be traded at the TDL, for another pick, perhaps even a 3rd.

Why so many tears have been shed for this 3rd round pick is mind boggling. NHL GMs trade picks for similar and other reasons ................. but for some people, its almost like the end world, as we know it.

No third round pick has about 0% chance of making the NHL.
Don’t like the chances? Use it as an asset to move up in the draft or trade for something useful. Throwing it away is not a good strategy.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Drafting is literally the only way a team with our budget can somewhat survive.

Thinking we can just throw away picks like it's nothing and it won't hurt us is moronic.

 

[BatherSeason]

Use it as an asset to move up in the draft or trade for something useful

Man does Dorion ever love throwing picks away. He throws a pick in every trade and also trades at least one pick in every draft to reach for a player that nobody wants.

 

[Icelevel]

Drafting is literally the only way a team with our budget can somewhat survive.

Thinking we can just throw away picks like it's nothing and it won't hurt us is moronic.

Moronic is a good word. I agree.

 

[jhutter]

My thoughts on the rebuild are that it isn't a rebuild whatsoever. Also, in reading these posts, there is far too much reliance on absolutely unproven prospects who in all likelihood may never become NHL players. For the likes of Crookshank, Pinto, Davidsson, Abramov, Norris and even Brown to create such a deep forward depth that the team will become competitive is to assume that all said players will become impact NHL players. Prospects are fun and exciting, but let's be real. I hate to be a cynic, but how can you not be due to the last few years, present, and foreseeable future?

 

[Icelevel]

My thoughts on the rebuild are that it isn't a rebuild whatsoever. Also, in reading these posts, there is far too much reliance on absolutely unproven prospects who in all likelihood may never become NHL players. For the likes of Crookshank, Pinto, Davidsson, Abramov , Norris and even Brown create such a deep forward depth that the team will become competitive is to assume that all said players will become impact NHL players. Prospects are fun and exciting, but let's be real. I hate to be a cynic, but how can you not be due to the last few years, present, and foreseeable future?

Yup it seems sometimes like the feeling is that the rebuild is almost done! Even though we have no young proven nhl players outside of a few like tkachuk white and chabot

 

[inthewings]

Drafting is literally the only way a team with our budget can somewhat survive.

Thinking we can just throw away picks like it's nothing and it won't hurt us is moronic.

I don't understand where this team plans to get a competitive advantage.

- It's not coaching, because they always hire bargain basement coaches.
- It's not financial flexibility, because they have no money.
- It's not that they're a desirable place to play, because players don't want to play here.
- It's not be being obsessive about maximizing value in all transactions, because they literally sell draft picks for money and have a habit of using significant cap space on low-upside role players.
- It's not that they're going to make more informed decisions, because they have one of the smallest scouting staffs in the league and no analytics department.

I have no idea how Melnyk plans to outcompete 31 other teams. Having financial constraints is not insurmountable - just make sure that you're obsessive about value and have top notch talent everywhere else in the org. Nashville has done it for years. Ottawa did it for years in the Marshall Johnston era. The Tampa Bay Rays do it in baseball.

But having severe financial constraints while also going cheap on coaching, scouting, and analytics, and not obsessing about value in every transaction you make? How the hell do you expect to outcompete an org like Toronto? What's your edge?

 

[Icelevel]

I don't understand where this team plans to get a competitive advantage.

- It's not coaching, because they always hire bargain basement coaches.
- It's not financial flexibility, because they have no money.
- It's not that they're a desirable place to play, because players don't want to play here.
- It's not be being obsessive about maximizing value in all transactions, because they literally sell draft picks for money and have a habit of using significant cap space on low-upside role players.
- It's not that they're going to make more informed decisions, because they have one of the smallest scouting staffs in the league and no analytics department.

I have no idea how Melnyk plans to outcompete 31 other teams. Having financial constraints is not insurmountable - just make sure that you're obsessive about value and have top notch talent everywhere else in the org. Nashville has done it for years. Ottawa did it for years in the Marshall Johnston era. The Tampa Bay Rays do it in baseball.

But having severe financial constraints while also going cheap on coaching, scouting, and analytics, and not obsessing about value in every transaction you make? How the hell do you expect to outcompete an org like Toronto? What's your edge?

^ Like

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Moronic is a good word. I agree.

Dorionic

 

[Icelevel]

Dorionic

^Like

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Rebuilds suck. Sometimes they are quick and linear like Pittsburgh/Toronto's, sometimes they can be longer and finally come together like Colorado's.

I hope we can get some elite talent in the next few drafts while developing and signing some of the great young talent we have right now. I will continue to be optimistic but if management can't lock down it's current young talent and continues to make lateral moves to save money I will begin to lose faith. I expect the next 1-2 years to be quiet as they are development years but after that there needs to be a serious commitment to winning.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

My thoughts on the rebuild are that it isn't a rebuild whatsoever. Also, in reading these posts, there is far too much reliance on absolutely unproven prospects who in all likelihood may never become NHL players. For the likes of Crookshank, Pinto, Davidsson, Abramov , Norris and even Brown create such a deep forward depth that the team will become competitive is to assume that all said players will become impact NHL players. Prospects are fun and exciting, but let's be real. I hate to be a cynic, but how can you not be due to the last few years, present, and foreseeable future?

Well said. Chabot and Tkachuk are the only two players who I consider part of the new core. Batherson is knocking at the door and we'll see how Brannstrom does this year. Everyone else is still a total wild card.

 

[jhutter]

Well said. Chabot and Tkachuk are the only two players who I consider part of the new core. Batherson is knocking at the door and we'll see how Brannstrom does this year. Everyone else is still a total wild card.

Exactly. And as much as I love Tkachuk, I don't feel that he's a strong enough player where you can safely feel that you have a true (competitive) core with him and Chabot. I don't know enough about Brannstrom, but in terms of Batherson, is it truly likely that he's a 30 goal scorer? Or a solid 2-3 line forward? If Batherson and Brannstrom fail to turn into legitimate stars, or even top pairing/line guys, the team is really in no better position than they are today, yesterday, last year, or the year prior.

Then there's the issue of actually retaining these prospects. Would anyone on here genuinely be surprised if the Senators failed to retain Chabot, White and Tkachuk (to a lesser extent, but imagine what the ask is if he puts up 65+ points in the next two seasons). When a guy like White who is in all likelihood a 50-60 point player is considered a core piece, and is also looking like a potential issue to re-sign, things are incredibly bleak.

Sadly, my entire hope is that things get worse before they get better, and that disaster forces change.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Exactly. And as much as I love Tkachuk, I don't feel that he's a strong enough player where you can safely feel that you have a true (competitive) core with him and Chabot. I don't know enough about Brannstrom, but in terms of Batherson, is it truly likely that he's a 30 goal scorer? Or a solid 2-3 line forward? If Batherson and Brannstrom fail to turn into legitimate stars, or even top pairing/line guys, the team is really in no better position than they are today, yesterday, last year, or the year prior.

Then there's the issue of actually retaining these prospects. Would anyone on here genuinely be surprised if the Senators failed to retain Chabot, White and Tkachuk (to a lesser extent, but imagine what the ask is if he puts up 65+ points in the next two seasons). When a guy like White who is in all likelihood a 50-60 point player is considered a core piece, and is also looking like a potential issue to re-sign, things are incredibly bleak.

Sadly, my entire hope is that things get worse before they get better, and that disaster forces change.

I would be. I understand that Ottawa is not a desirable place to play right now and I get why all of our UFAs left. But in the last 10 years I've been following hockey closely I can't remember a team that have had all of their RFAs play hardball to the point that they are traded or lost to offer sheets. If that happens in Ottawa it will be a total nightmare and will probably rip apart the little hope that is left with this fan base. I do however still think we lock Chabot and Tkachuk to long term contacts but if we don't I think it's a for sure sign that Melnyk has gone from crumpling to crumpled.

 

[jhutter]

I would be. I understand that Ottawa is not a desirable place to play right now and I get why all of our UFAs left. But in the last 10 years I've been following hockey closely I can't remember a team that have had all of their RFAs play hardball to the point that they are traded. If that happens in Ottawa it will be a total nightmare and will probably rip apart the little hope that is left with this fan base. I do however still think we lock Chabot and Tkachuk to long term contacts but if we don't I think it's a for sure sign that Melnyk has gone from crumpling to crumpled.

I sure hope you're right. I love this hockey team.

 

[CanadianHockey]

You're wrong.

Take it to the bank.

Is he wrong about the theme of trading picks to save on signing bonuses? Keeping front office expenditures down by keeping the staff small?