THN: The Great Goalie Debate: Ranking the NHL’s 31 starting netminders in 2018-19

[Aurinko]

This sample is deceptive. You can't have a list of "the 2017-2018 (season+ playoffs)" and then have there goalies that didn't play in playoffs this season, Antti Raanta, Subban, Lehtonen etc.. their sv% is not affected by their PO performance, they didn't play any games. So you shoud look at 2 samples, regular season for starters(50 games min) alone and just PO.

I had to make a decision. I didn't want to include several years back, and I didn't want to do the playoffs only (<31 goalies). Playoff games are statistically a marginal part of the whole year stats, including them to season stats doesn't change the percentages much.

 

[Sundance]

Ranking goalies is difficult, to be fair. Some goalies have flash-in-the-pan, one-off great seasons; some are better playoff performers than regular season ones (and vice-versa); some are products of better teams and defensive structures (a mediocre goalie on a great team is going to look better than a great goalie on an awful team).

Also, there are just a whole lot of good goalies. The difference between, say, the #5 goalie and #25 is pretty thin and could change pretty quickly after one season.

I therefore think cumulative career performance should count for more than one season performance when ranking goalies.

Any top ten at the moment for me would have to include both Pekka Rinne and Carey Price.

 

[Maylo]

I had to make a decision. I didn't want to include several years back, and I didn't want to do the playoffs only (<31 goalies). Playoff games are statistically a marginal part of the whole year stats, including them to season stats doesn't change the percentages much.

So then just 17-18 season year for starters, because you cant compare goalies who played 60 games and 2о. It's much harder to maintain high level at full season (ask Vasilevsky). That's why they(unofficially) have 50 games to be eligible for Vezina votes.

 

[Romang67]

OK, "lot" is not correct word as he is still youngish guy, but his previous season, or first full season as a starter was genuinely bad. His glove in particular was laughable. Jets had pretty bad defensive system and lots of injuries as well, but all in all he was just so bad I had zero hopes about him ever to be a decent NHL goalie.

Last season they changed some things on his play and even stance, and somehow he was like re-born and played huge season. Maurice threw him under the bus against Vegas as he got outcoached badly, but still I think also his playoffs were really good.

His seasons prior 16-17 were okayish statistically, but certainly nothing to rave about so that gives you "mediocre".

What?

The only way you can characterize Hellebuyck's seasons leading up to 16/17 as mediocre is if you're comparing them to the stats a full time NHL starter would have put up under the same circumstances.

 

[Halberdier]

What?

The only way you can characterize Hellebuyck's seasons leading up to 16/17 as mediocre is if you're comparing them to the stats a full time NHL starter would have put up under the same circumstances.

And my dear, that's exactly what mediocre or average is all about, isn't it? So where is the problem?

So far Helle has been all over TOP-15-20, "TOP-30" (actually "NOT-3") and finally TOP-3 (last season), and in my papers, that just doesn't make him TOP-3 next season. But I guess we agree to disagree.

According to Cambridge English Dictionary mediocre means, among other things "ordinary and not very good", which in my mind describes perfectly Helle's performance against typical NHL starter goalie (which this TOP-30 starter goalie list is all about) prior to season 17-18, which was really really good. Though season 16-17 was not mediocre, but genuinely bad, until all the hope about making it into playoffs was finally lost. After that point Helle and several other Jets played fine for no apparent reason as the real season was over anyway.

 

[Romang67]

And my dear, that's exactly what mediocre or average us all about, isn't it? So where is the problem?

So far Helle has been all over TOP-15-20, "TOP-30" (actually "NOT-3") and finally TOP-3 (last season), and in my papers, that just doesn't make him TOP-3 next season. But I guess we agree to disagree.

According to Cambridge English Dictionary mediocre means, among other things "ordinary and not very good", which in my mind describes perfectly Helle's performance against typical NHL starter goalie (which this TOP-30 starter goalie list is all about) prior to season 17-18, which was really really good. Though season 16-17 was not mediocre, but genuinely bad, until all the hope about making it into playoffs was finally lost. After that point Helle and several other Jets played fine for no apparent reason as the real season was over anyway.

No? Isn't it obvious why you can't compare the performance of a rookie AHL player in the AHL to how a full time NHL goalie would have performed under the same circumstances? Compared to his peers, Hellebuyck wasn't average in the seasons leading up to the 16-17 season. He was elite in the AHL (given workload and sv%, doubtlessly top 5 both years) and historical in the NCAA.

So unless your "seasons prior 16-17" refers to his 26 games in the NHL in 15-16, you are simply incorrect to claim that he was average. If it does refer to his 26 games in the NHL, that is obviously not "a lot" nor "seasons".

I don't think Hellebuyck is top 3. I think that's overrating him based on this past season alone. I just think you're wrong to say that he has a lot of mediocre seasons. He doesn't. At all.

 

[zeke]

Last 2yrs Save Percentage, Regular Season and Playoffs, Minimum 4600 minutes (31 goalies qualify):

1.Gibson .923 (7474.1min)
2.Bobrovsky .923 (8322.9min)
3.Rinne .922 (8996.0min)
4.Quick .922 (4859.4min)
5.Fleury .921 (6778.7min)
6.Crawford .921 (5084.2min)
7.Dubnyk .920 (7773.5min)
8.Vasilevsky .919 (7635.5min)
9.Murray .918 (5294.1min)
10.Hellebuyck .918 (7989.5min)
11.Holtby .917 (8879.0min)
12.Andersen .917 (8457.9min)
13.Reimer .916 (4735.6min)
14.Smith .915 (6392.7min)
15.Lehner .915 (6257.5min)
16.Jones .915 (8096.3min)
17.Rask .915 (7921.9min)
18.Talbot .914 (8775.5min)
19.Howard .914 (4704.3min)
20.Lundqvist .914 (7517.5min)
21.Price .914 (6930.2min)
22.Bishop .914 (5109.5min)
23.Allen .913 (7410.2min)
24.Anderson .912 (6829.9min)
25.Markstrom .912 (4766.2min)
26.Halak .910 (4609.5min)
27.Schneider .909 (5961.5min)
28.Lehtonen .906 (5121.5min)
29.Elliott .906 (5688.8min)
30.Ward .905 (6072.2min)
31.Mrazek .901 (4965.2min)

Other goalies with 3000+ min

Raanta .927 (4196.4min)
Luongo .922 (4293.1min)
Grubauer .921 (3253.3min)
Miller .917 (4585.1min)
Varlamov .913 (4208.8min)
Kinkaid .912 (3865.5min)
Bernier .911 (4388.8min)
Budaj .910 (3738.7min)
Condon .908 (4011.7min)
Mason .908 (3929.8min)
Greiss .905 (4305.0min)
Darling .903 (4163.7min)
Johnson .902 (3834.7min)

what really stands out to me is that at the moment there aren't any goalies that really stand out to me.

There are certainly good goalies, but nobody at the moment that you an expect to consistently dominate.

There are some teams that are really shooting themselves in the foot with their goalies, though - Carolina and Philadelphia in particular, and maybe some others.

 

[Wolfpuck]

Darling at 31

Well at least they got that right.

 

[Halberdier]

No? Isn't it obvious why you can't compare the performance of a rookie AHL player in the AHL to how a full time NHL goalie would have performed under the same circumstances? Compared to his peers, Hellebuyck wasn't average in the seasons leading up to the 16-17 season. He was elite in the AHL (given workload and sv%, doubtlessly top 5 both years) and historical in the NCAA.

So unless your "seasons prior 16-17" refers to his 26 games in the NHL in 15-16, you are simply incorrect to claim that he was average. If it does refer to his 26 games in the NHL, that is obviously not "a lot" nor "seasons".

I don't think Hellebuyck is top 3. I think that's overrating him based on this past season alone. I just think you're wrong to say that he has a lot of mediocre seasons. He doesn't. At all.

We are not comparing him "to his peers". We are comparing him to 31 NHL starters. That's the point and that's the problem.

So far out of his NHL seasons he has:

1 Excellent season, rated TOP-3 by Vezina voters. (17-18)

1 Really bad season compared to 30 other starters (16-17).

1 Season when he was 29th on Sv% among goalies that played at least 600 minutes / 10 games. Though his "xSv%-corrected" stats were surprisingly good, 9th. However, I guess word "mediocre" is warranted here, as there was nothing to rave about, within his stats at least.

(If looking only 5-on-5 btw., his stats looked pretty nice actually. Maybe just like 16-17 when he couldn't cach a beach ball when on PK?) (Season 15-16, 26 games, Pavelec had 33)

He had significantly better stats than Pavelec already on 15-16 season, but maybe that's more about how bad Pavelec was.

Anyhow, nice to know that we both agree at least on one thing: 3th place is bit too much after just one excellent NHL season. I guess we also agree on that we would just love him to win Vezina and Conn Smythe coming season, and for sure he has potential for that.

 

[Uncle Bill]

THN has this absurd love of all things Winnipeg, but Hellebuyck at 3 might be as funny as Byfuglien over Doughty.

Outstanding rebuttal. You don’t feel his top three Vezina rating is worthy?

 

[Uncle Bill]

Hellebuyck was garbage in the playoffs.

How did you arrive at this conclusion? Bad goals against? Bad save percentage?

Can you provide an objective analysis to support your ‘garbage in the playoffs’ theory?

 

[Peanut]

Holtby sure got a nice push after a great playoffs wasn't that long ago it looked like Grubauer was going to take over the starter job.

 

[zeke]

Last 2yrs, Regular Season and Playoffs, Minimum 4600 minutes (31 goalies qualify):

1.Gibson .923 (7474.1min)
2.Bobrovsky .923 (8322.9min)
3.Rinne .922 (8996.0min)
4.Quick .922 (4859.4min)
5.Fleury .921 (6778.7min)
6.Crawford .921 (5084.2min)
7.Dubnyk .920 (7773.5min)
8.Vasilevsky .919 (7635.5min)
9.Murray .918 (5294.1min)
10.Hellebuyck .918 (7989.5min)
11.Holtby .917 (8879.0min)
12.Andersen .917 (8457.9min)
13.Reimer .916 (4735.6min)
14.Smith .915 (6392.7min)
15.Lehner .915 (6257.5min)
16.Jones .915 (8096.3min)
17.Rask .915 (7921.9min)
18.Talbot .914 (8775.5min)
19.Howard .914 (4704.3min)
20.Lundqvist .914 (7517.5min)
21.Price .914 (6930.2min)
22.Bishop .914 (5109.5min)
23.Allen .913 (7410.2min)
24.Anderson .912 (6829.9min)
25.Markstrom .912 (4766.2min)
26.Halak .910 (4609.5min)
27.Schneider .909 (5961.5min)
28.Lehtonen .906 (5121.5min)
29.Elliott .906 (5688.8min)
30.Ward .905 (6072.2min)
31.Mrazek .901 (4965.2min)

Other goalies with 3000+ min

Raanta .927 (4196.4min)
Luongo .922 (4293.1min)
Grubauer .921 (3253.3min)
Miller .917 (4585.1min)
Varlamov .913 (4208.8min)
Kinkaid .912 (3865.5min)
Bernier .911 (4388.8min)
Budaj .910 (3738.7min)
Condon .908 (4011.7min)
Mason .908 (3929.8min)
Greiss .905 (4305.0min)
Darling .903 (4163.7min)
Johnson .902 (3834.7min)

what really stands out to me is that at the moment there aren't any goalies that really stand out to me.

There are certainly good goalies, but nobody at the moment that you an expect to consistently dominate.

There are some teams that are really shooting themselves in the foot with their goalies, though - Carolina and Philadelphia in particular, and maybe some others.

Adjusted Save Percentage (i.e. Difference between Save Percentage and Expected Save Percentage)

Last 2yrs, Regular Season and Playoffs, Minimum 4600 minutes (31 goalies qualify):

1.B0brovsky +1.69
2.Gibson +1.60
3.Quick +1.25
4.Fleury +1.06
5.Crawford +0.97
6.Talbot +0.89
7.Murray +0.78
8.Andersen +0.63
9.Jones +0.59
10.Reimer +0.55
11.Rinne +0.53
12.Smith +0.49
13.Holtby +0.45
14.Lundqvist +0.43
15.Howard +0.41
16.Halak +0.32
17.Hellbuyck +0.26
18.Schneider +0.08
19.Rask -0.10
20.Bishop -0.14
21.Markstrom -0.17
22.Anderson -0.20
23.Price -0.21
24.Vasilevskiy -0.23
25.Lehner -0.34
26.Lehtonen -0.39
27.Elliott -0.51
28.Allen -0.53
29.Dubnyk -0.65
30.Ward -0.72
31.Mrazek -0.80

Other goalies with 3000+ min:

Grubauer +1.43
Raanta +1.26
Luongo +1.05
Hutton +1.01
Miller +0.92
Kinkaid +0.24
Varlamov -0.26
Greiss -0.39
Bernier -0.48
Mason -0.49
Darling -0.50
Condon -0.64
Budaj -0.67
Johnson -0.87

 

[Maylo]

Last 2yrs Save Percentage, Regular Season and Playoffs, Minimum 4600 minutes (31 goalies qualify):

15.Lehner .915 (6257.5min)

Again, you can't play with stats like that. Robin Lehner hasn't played in PO for 5 years. Reimer for 2 years, Howard for 2 years ... etc.

 

[zeke]

claim:

Again, you can't play with stats like that.

evidence:

Robin Lehner hasn't played in PO for 5 years. Reimer for 2 years, Howard for 2 years ... etc.

not sure your "evidence" actually backs up your claim, tbh.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

LOL Lundqvist at 25? Yikes.

Yea he's not in his prime anymore but he's still easily top 10-15. The whole list is pretty brutal.

Seriously. Lundqvist at 25 is laughable. The hottest take in years. I readily admit he's a top 10-15 goalie at this point in his career (he's no longer top 5), but this list is just cringe-worthy.

 

[Maylo]

claim:
evidence:
not sure your "evidence" actually backs up your claim, tbh.

You put list of stats for 2 years RS and PO. And then have goalies in it who havent played in PO in those 2 years.

Let's take Gibson/ Lehner as example - Gibson had 927 sv% in RS this year and 889 sv% in PO, you take an average and compare him to Lehner who had 908 sv% in RS and no stats and PO, but somehow you think it's fair to compare their stats? What evidence do you need?

Put goalies who actually played in RS and PO for last 2 years, then that list is fair.

 

[zeke]

Put goalies who actually played in RS and PO for last 2 years, then that list is fair.

why would that make it fair?

 

[Maylo]

why would that make it fair?

Is it really that hard? - Two guys were beaten by the same gang for 4 hours, then one of those guys was additionally beaten by even scarier gang for 2 more hours. Let's compare their wounds after that and decide who is better survivor.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Holtby sure got a nice push after a great playoffs wasn't that long ago it looked like Grubauer was going to take over the starter job.

Grubauer did take over the starting job. He was the starter for the first two games of the playoffs.

After that Holtby ranged between very good and amazing.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Lol Carey price has one bad year and he’s worse then rantaa, Andersen etc... he’s still a top 3 goalie in the nhl

Markstrom from Vancouver is too high

 

[CBJx614]

Last 2yrs Save Percentage, Regular Season and Playoffs, Minimum 4600 minutes (31 goalies qualify):

1.Gibson .923 (7474.1min)
2.Bobrovsky .923 (8322.9min)
3.Rinne .922 (8996.0min)
4.Quick .922 (4859.4min)
5.Fleury .921 (6778.7min)
6.Crawford .921 (5084.2min)
7.Dubnyk .920 (7773.5min)
8.Vasilevsky .919 (7635.5min)
9.Murray .918 (5294.1min)
10.Hellebuyck .918 (7989.5min)
11.Holtby .917 (8879.0min)
12.Andersen .917 (8457.9min)
13.Reimer .916 (4735.6min)
14.Smith .915 (6392.7min)
15.Lehner .915 (6257.5min)
16.Jones .915 (8096.3min)
17.Rask .915 (7921.9min)
18.Talbot .914 (8775.5min)
19.Howard .914 (4704.3min)
20.Lundqvist .914 (7517.5min)
21.Price .914 (6930.2min)
22.Bishop .914 (5109.5min)
23.Allen .913 (7410.2min)
24.Anderson .912 (6829.9min)
25.Markstrom .912 (4766.2min)
26.Halak .910 (4609.5min)
27.Schneider .909 (5961.5min)
28.Lehtonen .906 (5121.5min)
29.Elliott .906 (5688.8min)
30.Ward .905 (6072.2min)
31.Mrazek .901 (4965.2min)

Other goalies with 3000+ min

Raanta .927 (4196.4min)
Luongo .922 (4293.1min)
Grubauer .921 (3253.3min)
Miller .917 (4585.1min)
Varlamov .913 (4208.8min)
Kinkaid .912 (3865.5min)
Bernier .911 (4388.8min)
Budaj .910 (3738.7min)
Condon .908 (4011.7min)
Mason .908 (3929.8min)
Greiss .905 (4305.0min)
Darling .903 (4163.7min)
Johnson .902 (3834.7min)

what really stands out to me is that at the moment there aren't any goalies that really stand out to me.

There are certainly good goalies, but nobody at the moment that you an expect to consistently dominate.

There are some teams that are really shooting themselves in the foot with their goalies, though - Carolina and Philadelphia in particular, and maybe some others.

Bob would be separated from the pack if he put up good numbers in the playoffs, the fact that he's still on top with those numbers is pretty impressive. He also faced 20some PK attempts against Washington in the first round and had a better 5v5 sv% than any other goalie who faced Washington in the playoffs.

 

[zeke]

Is it really that hard? - Two guys were beaten by the same gang for 4 hours, then one of those guys was additionally beaten by even scarier gang for 2 more hours. Let's compare their wounds after that and decide who is better survivor.

If you're saying that playoffs are necessarily tougher quality of competition I'm not sure I can agree.

 

[Maylo]

If you're saying that playoffs are necessarily tougher quality of competition I'm not sure I can agree.

Not that just tougher, it's different. Smaller sample size, some goalies play the same team over and over again. Some have played 2000 minutes (Holtby) in 2 years and some 2o(Miller) so you can't cut their performance by the same amount of games/TOI like in RS. That's why they treat PO and RS as 2 different animals in stats.

 

[zeke]

Not that just tougher, it's different. Smaller sample size, some goalies play the same team over and over again. Some have played 2000 minutes (Holtby) in 2 years and some 2o(Miller) so you can't cut their performance by the same amount of games/TOI like in RS. That's why they treat PO and RS as 2 different animals in stats.

but combining them makes for a bigger sample.