THN: The Great Goalie Debate: Ranking the NHL’s 31 starting netminders in 2018-19

[Lebowski]

So in fantasyland where these guys all play for free only most would want Price?

I wasn’t aware a best player ranking had anything to do with relative contract value.

It’s not in a fantasyland, it’s in a vacuum, which is what this type of list is about.

 

[Pi]

I wasn’t aware a best player ranking had anything to do with relative contract value.

It’s not in a fantasyland, it’s in a vacuum, which is what this type of list is about.

Why would Price be the goalie everyone would want?

12 games in 2015 (terrible), 62 in 2016 (g00d) and 49 (okay) in 2017. Even if he was the best goalie in the world right now, no one is taking him because you don't know how well he can be with his injuries.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Matt Murray's placement is understandable given his last season (particularly a tough regular season with the sudden death of his father). But I think he's shown in the past that he's capable of being closer to the 5-10 range than 15th. We'll see this season.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Bobrovsky
Gibson
Andersen
Crawford
Holtby
Lundqvist
Vasilevskiy
Hellebuyck
Raanta
Fleury
Quick
Luongo
Talbot
Price
Jones
Rinne
Murray
Rask
Grubauer
Smith
Bishop
Dubnyk
Schneider
Hutton
Lehner
Howard
Allen
Elliott
Markstrom
Mrazek
Anderson

Idk

 

[Paris in Flames]

Rinne wins the Vezina and gets dropped to 15th Ish on most lists?

If you're holding his playoff performances against him that's fair but you gotta do that for a bunch of other goalies too.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I actually think the list isn't terrible outside of the absurdly low Gibson placement and Helle being too high after just one great season. There are other nits to pick but it seems more reasonable than most of these lists we've been seeing.

 

[Mattb124]

Hellebuyck was garbage in the playoffs.

This. How is he at 3?

 

[Paul4587]

It’s as bad as their top 50 players list. At least they’re consistent.

 

[tucker3434]

Weird list.

 

[LeafShark]

Technically Price is barely a starter in the NHL. SV% ranking by goalies who have played >50 games over the last two years. Montreal has a $10.5M back-up.

Here are the top 31 goalies in this list.

Antti Raanta

Sergei Bobrovsky

John Gibson

Philipp Grubauer

Pekka Rinne

Carter Hutton

Corey Crawford

Roberto Luongo

Devan Dubnyk

Jonathan Quick

Marc-Andre Fleury

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Ryan Miller

Frederik Andersen

Connor Hellebuyck

Tuukka Rask

Braden Holtby

James Reimer

Mike Smith

Matt Murray

Robin Lehner

Jimmy Howard

Keith Kinkaid

Jonathan Bernier

Ben Bishop

Cam Talbot

Martin Jones

Semyon Varlamov

Carey Price

Henrik Lundqvist

Anders Nilsson

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[DonM]

If you forget the previous season performance and only look at the 2017-2018 (season+ playoffs), here's the list of goalie performance over the expected:

Sv% is the actual save%
xSV% is the expected save %, when you consider the shot location and quality
dSv% is their difference: it shows how much above the expected the goalie performed

dSv% = 0% is how an average 2017-18 NHL goalie would have done when facing the same shot quality (meaning save% would have been same as expected%).

Just FYI you have both a Matt Murray and a Matthew Murray on Pitt, each with different numbers.

 

[DictatorTots427]

Pekka Rinne at 12? Are you joking? He JUST won the Vezina, he's top 5 at the very least.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Holtby is the best goalie in the league. Bob is absolute garbage every playoffs, Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck have had a combined 1.5 elite seasons.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Andersen and Price are career .918 SV% goalies

Price has played 300 more games. Their sample size isn’t even comparable. Let’s see if Andersen can maintain it. One bad season with 49 games played was enough to take Price from .920 to .918. Not to mention he spent his development years in the NHL and went threw the motions during the early stages of his career whereas Andersen came in later.

And does the hockey news even try to keep any consistency with their rankings? They have 3 goalies ahead of Price on their 50 top players list but 10 goaltenders ahead of him on this one. How does that work?

 

[PensPlz]

What happened to Henrik Lundqvist?

Great goalies look like shit on bad teams.

And mediocre goalies are made to look good on a good team.

That's why I never put stock in these rankings.

 

[Halberdier]

Vezina Rinne at 12th, Hellebuyck with 1 great season and all other seasons of mediocre to bad play is at 3rd. Seems legit.

I for sure want that Helle is the 1st and wins the Vezina, but somehow this doesn't sound right, as he was about 31th just previous season.

Don't get me wrong, I would probably put Helle to around 6th position. Just that 3rd after single great season where he was TOP-3 is not enough.

Edit: changed "lot of seasons" to "all other seasons".

 

[Romang67]

Vezina Rinne at 12th, Hellebuyck with 1 great season and a lot of mediocre to bad seasons is at 3rd. Seems legit.

I for sure want that Helle is the 1st and wins the Vezina, but somehow this doesn't sound right, as he was about 31th just previous season.

Don't get me wrong, I would probably put Helle to around 6th position. Just that 3rd after single great season where he was TOP-3 is not enough.

What?

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Vezina Rinne at 12th, Hellebuyck with 1 great season and a lot of mediocre to bad seasons is at 3rd. Seems legit.

I for sure want that Helle is the 1st and wins the Vezina, but somehow this doesn't sound right, as he was about 31th just previous season.

Don't get me wrong, I would probably put Helle to around 6th position. Just that 3rd after single great season where he was TOP-3 is not enough.

A lot of mediocre to bad seasons? What, one?

 

[maacoshark]

Rinne wins the Vezina and gets dropped to 15th Ish on most lists?

If you're holding his playoff performances against him that's fair but you gotta do that for a bunch of other goalies too.

I agree with that. Bobrovsky has a terrible playoff resume. In fact Rinne has played a lot better than Bobrovsky in the post season.

 

[bobholly39]

Price has played 300 more games. Their sample size isn’t even comparable. Let’s see if Andersen can maintain it. One bad season with 49 games played was enough to take Price from .920 to .918. Not to mention he spent his development years in the NHL and went threw the motions during the early stages of his career whereas Andersen came in later.

And does the hockey news even try to keep any consistency with their rankings? They have 3 goalies ahead of Price on their 50 top players list but 10 goaltenders ahead of him on this one. How does that work?

That's the biggest thing that jumped out at me.

I still think Price should be ranked #1 but i know most of HF is very down on him so i won't try to argue that. And without even arguing specific rankings of goalies and why they're bad - i think this lists loses all credibility because of the bolded.

It'd be akin to me starting a top 50 NHL player lists and slotting Ovi at 3. And then start a top 15 winger list and having him ranked at 4. Just dumb.

 

[Halberdier]

A lot of mediocre to bad seasons? What, one?

OK, "lot" is not correct word as he is still youngish guy, but his previous season, or first full season as a starter was genuinely bad. His glove in particular was laughable. Jets had pretty bad defensive system and lots of injuries as well, but all in all he was just so bad I had zero hopes about him ever to be a decent NHL goalie.

Last season they changed some things on his play and even stance, and somehow he was like re-born and played huge season. Maurice threw him under the bus against Vegas as he got outcoached badly, but still I think also his playoffs were really good.

His seasons prior 16-17 were okayish statistically, but certainly nothing to rave about so that gives you "mediocre".

 

[zeke]

Gibson is criminally underrated and I really have no idea why.

probably due to the ducks dmen being overrated.

 

[Aurinko]

I agree with that. Bobrovsky has a terrible playoff resume. In fact Rinne has played a lot better than Bobrovsky in the post season.

Here are the 2017-2018 post-season stats alone, showing how much better/worse the goalie performed to an average goalie, when facing the same shot quality:

Rinne was facing lower quality shots than Bobrovsky.

I warmly recommend getting acquainted with the expected save% statistics, combined with save% I consider it a far superior statistic compared to save% alone.


edit: looking at a several season average, Rinne indeed has performed better.

 

[Maylo]

If you forget the previous season performance and only look at the 2017-2018 (season+ playoffs), here's the list of goalie performance over the expected:

Sv% is the actual save%
xSV% is the expected save %, when you consider the shot location and quality
dSv% is their difference: it shows how much above the expected the goalie performed

dSv% = 0% is how an average 2017-18 NHL goalie would have done when facing the same shot quality (meaning save% would have been same as expected%).

This sample is deceptive. You can't have a list of "the 2017-2018 (season+ playoffs)" and then have there goalies that didn't play in playoffs this season, Antti Raanta, Subban, Lehtonen etc.. their sv% is not affected by their PO performance, they didn't play any games. So you shoud look at 2 samples, regular season for starters(50 games min) alone and just PO.

 

[tucker3434]

Injuries have to be a major factor in this list. Varly has posted a .920 or better in 3 of the last 5 seasons. I’d bet there are a handful of guys above him that can’t match that. Mike Smith has been in the league for a decade and only done it once, years ago. Martin Jones has only cleared .920 as a backup.