This is Nazem Kadri's Chance.

[LeafingTheWay]

Kadri has only been "great" in comparison to the trash heap that we had around him (especially at the centre position). He wouldn't crack the top 6 on many good teams' rosters. I just don't see how he has been that good at all when comparing him to the rest of the league.

I am about to rustle some jimmies with this, but that's OK. We all have our own opinions.

Chicago, Washington, Montreal, Vancouver easily and possibly Tampa (replace Filppulia on 1st line).

So he played great and still didn't get rewarded? Great.

Let me break it down:

He had 28 EV points, good enough for the 1st line role in Toronto.

Add 10 points from just passing the puck to Kessel and him sniping it.
Add 15-18 PP points (which is actually below average for a 1st PP unit center). There you have your 55 point centre, to line up beside your 60 pt Kessel this year.

Of course this is just a hypothesis, but my guess would be that Kadri wouldn't be looked down upon if he had been given what he had deserved to get, as opposed to Bozak getting what he didnt deserve.

 

[ULF_55]

Correction, face offs are not a huge part of possession. They are in fact small part of possession. As the article below I posted states, there is no relstionshipmbetween possession and faceeoffs thus far with the numbers tracked. But even if there was one that hasn't been found yet, Kadri still has a much bigger impact on possession than any of our centres.

When he was with Kessel, their games looked quite different but they produced at the same average rate Bozak and Kessel did. Kadri would have certainly enhanced the first line defensively and possession wise. A 2 game sample or 10 game sample is very, very small.

www.hockeywilderness.com/2014/11/6/7155985/faceoffs-nhl-possession-correlation-do-faceoffs-matter

What Did We Learn?

This doesn't mean that face-offs aren't important. It doesn't mean that the "narrative" regarding face-off importance is wrong. Primarily it means that we don't know how important faceoffs really are. It could be that good teams are good teams and do well regardless of their faceoff per centage, or it could be that we just don't have enough data or the right data to represent their value.

I would like to emphasize- all we have discovered is that there is almost no statistical connection between face-off and Corsi values; that connection may well exist, it simply doesn't exist in the data we currently have. Again, I refer you to this article about R2 values to learn more.

And what does Corsi refer to?

About 40% of the analysis required.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Kadri has only been "great" in comparison to the trash heap that we had around him (especially at the centre position). He wouldn't crack the top 6 on many good teams' rosters. I just don't see how he has been that good at all when comparing him to the rest of the league.

I am about to rustle some jimmies with this, but that's OK. We all have our own opinions.

This is an enlightening post. One I expect to see more of here soon. Is Kadri really as talented as some seem to believe he is? Or was it just because this team was skill deprived all these years that gave rise to the perception he was a talent. With now Rielly, Marner and Nylander heading this team up in the talent and skill department, our skilled players have improved, and Kadri may be just looked as what he probably is. A 3rd line Center, maybe he has been miscast and his role is rightfully as a shut down Center.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

thank you for that correction.

however - I would also think - if you win said faceoff, you start off with the puck sooner and easier to set up your play, rather than starting behind the play like the Leafs often do.

Very true, I believe there should be a correlation, but there has been nothing to show it so far.

 

[exporta]

Just got notification he signed 1yr.