The Vision of Kyle Dubas

[Blanche Blanche]

He inherited a strong team and his only significant moves have been adding the best forward and second best defenseman moved since July 1st 2018 until now. There was a 0% chance of the best defenseman coming here, so he added to two biggest pieces of 2018/19 available to him.

I don't really have a problem with the the Tavares, Matthews, Nylander and soon to be Marner contracts. Sure, I'd be happy if they all made one million less, but distributing the majority of your cap space into great players is hardly worth the vitriol it gets around here. Nor will their be any league-wide cap restructuring based on these contracts like the proles believe. As if I should care anyways.

Insofar, none of this has been brain surgery. The real test will be to continuously surround the established core with cheap foot-soldiers. Why people were clamouring to pay premium for deadline acquisitions like Simmonds and Gudas is beyond me. That's textbook stupidity. The goal should be to maximize the term of which you can compete for the cup by having a steady stream of Johnssons, Kapanens, Hymans, Browns, Moores etc. Not to trade the next one (draft pick) for 2-3 months of Wayne Simmonds.

Bravo sir! Bravoooo!!

 

[Joey Hoser]

Dubas on the surface looking in seems to be sabotaging Babcock his own coach.

Babcock constantly comments on needing size and wanting to play a heavier game, with an ability to be stronger on the puck, and pleads for a RHD top 4 guy to help the defense out on the right side.

Dubas seems to ignore all that and best he comes up with is 5-9 Nic Petan to sit in the pressbox, intentionally doing the exact opposite to Babs as if there is already some power struggle going on. .

You can't pretend Muzzin doesn't exist because he shoots left. Dubas got the guy Babcock and everyone else wanted and he is sabotaging himself by playing Zaitsev and Hainsey more than him.

I have always been supportive of Babcock, and still am with regards to just about everything he does, but this is elephant-in-the-room bad and can't continue.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Thread title sounds like some Ayahuasca retreat/experience

 

[zeke]

Thread title sounds like some Ayahuasca retreat/experience

 

[zeke]

Dubas additions:

J.Tavares: 6'1" 210
J.Muzzin 6'3" 215
I.Ozhiganov 6'2" 210

T.Ennis 5'9" 161
N.Petan 5'9" 179

arguably mostly responsible for adding Marincin 6'5" 215, Holl 6'4" 210, and Moore 5'10" 185 as well.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

The Nylander and Matthews contracts right now can definitely be seen as overpayments, but in a year or two they will be fair value or bargains

No, they won't.
Matthews stole Kapanen's lunch money.
The 5 year term for AM34 is a travesty at that money.

 

[tmlms13]

Exactly, if McDavid is the ceiling as 100+ point player and award winner and comparable using 8 X $12.5 mil then Matthews at $11.634 X 8 years makes logical sense..

The minute Dubas left 3 UFA years on the cutting room floor he got taken to the cleaners on that contract, and what makes that worse is now he will be forced to overpay Marner on a shorter term also because he already set a bad precedence with Matthews.

Here is my prediction .. Kucherov the league's leading scorer and also a RW will begin his 8 year $9.5mil contract next year.. Dubas will pay Marner more $$$/AAV and get less years., even considering the first 4 years of Mitch deal will be RFA years while Kuch is all 8 as UFA status.

Dubas vision seems to be getting players signed is his top priority the cost to do so seems to be a secondary concern, because in 5 years if the Leafs haven't won a Cup yet he will be fired and it will be the new GMs headache that all these top players will be UFAs.

Can everyone on this board please stop using the Kutcherov contract as a comparable. Use contracts that are deemed to be roughly even for team/player.

No agent will ever use Kutcherov as a comparable, and no GM should be naive enough to argue that it should be. If you do then then nearly every contract in the NHL is a bad deal. If Agents start letting GMs use team friendly contracts as starting points. they should all be fired instantly.

Morgan Rielly has more points than Erik Karlsson by this logic he shouldn't make more than him this offseason. But the world doesn't work that way.

Kutcherov is an albatross let it go. Find a deal for a winger that was considered fair for both teams the at the moment of signing and use it's % of cap hit.

You know what? Phil Kessel's 8x8 deal signed in training camp 2014. It was after 2 point per game season, well over 30 goal (pace) each one. The Leafs had just come off a playoff appearance. Scoring was much lower league wide. I don't remember a ton of outrage over it. Obviously hindsight though.

He got 8m of a 64m Cap. 12.5%. That equals 10.25m on a 82m Cap.

 

[Polaris1010]

Dubas seems largely clueless.

The only thing we can really conclude about him is he is still learning on the job.

The only real good move that will have an impact on the team is the Muzzin deal because it buys an extra year for the defense waiting for the youngsters on the farm to be ready for the big leagues. Was the first round draft choice too steep a price? Expensive, but a good deal I think. However, this is more or less common sense.

Otherwise, Dubas is truly an unproven quantity at this point.

Do not be surprised if Tavares or Marner's tenure with the Maple Leafs out last him by a lot.

 

[thewave]

Can everyone on this board please stop using the Kutcherov contract as a comparable. Use contracts that are deemed to be roughly even for team/player.

No agent will ever use Kutcherov as a comparable, and no GM should be naive enough to argue that it should be. If you do then then nearly every contract in the NHL is a bad deal. If Agents start letting GMs use team friendly contracts as starting points. they should all be fired instantly.

Morgan Rielly has more points than Erik Karlsson by this logic he shouldn't make more than him this offseason. But the world doesn't work that way.

Kutcherov is an albatross let it go. Find a deal for a winger that was considered fair for both teams the at the moment of signing and use it's % of cap hit.

You know what? Phil Kessel's 8x8 deal signed in training camp 2014. It was after 2 point per game season, well over 30 goal (pace) each one. The Leafs had just come off a playoff appearance. Scoring was much lower league wide. I don't remember a ton of outrage over it. Obviously hindsight though.

He got 8m of a 64m Cap. 12.5%. That equals 10.25m on a 82m Cap.

As a UFA. Most people understand Matthews @12.5% for say 7y or 8y. 11% @5y.

Nylander vs Matthews contract = both are not good, but it's plausible that Nylander will hit a level of performance that justifies the numbers. Matthews has near no hope of being McDavid level. Bad contract is just that

 

[egd27]

You know what? Phil Kessel's 8x8 deal signed in training camp 2014. It was after 2 point per game season, well over 30 goal (pace) each one. The Leafs had just come off a playoff appearance. Scoring was much lower league wide. I don't remember a ton of outrage over it. Obviously hindsight though.

He got 8m of a 64m Cap. 12.5%. That equals 10.25m on a 82m Cap.

Great...if Dubas gets Marner at 10.25 X 8, most sane people will consider that a big win for the team. I'm betting it won't be that favorable.

 

[Mess]

Great...if Dubas gets Marner at 10.25 X 8, most sane people will consider that a big win for the team. I'm betting it won't be that favorable.

Dubas will make Marner the highest paid winger in the NHL, and it likely will not be for 8 years either but leaving expensive to buy UFA year away from the player on the cutting room floor on a shorter term, claiming that is the best he could do to keep the team together for a short while.

People will cry that the Kucherov contract is the anomaly, and Marner's new deal is the norm. However to rest of the NHL outside the Leafs they will see Leafs big 3 forwards as the albatross contracts handed out by Dubas as glass ceiling shattering deals, and then teams will attempt to get their top players on better contracts and longer as well tossing out Leaf player comparables in their negotiations.

Problem in the big picture when TB has a bunch of cap friendly deals and Leafs have a bunch of market shattering deals, it will make winning all that much harder in a Cap world as the road to the Cup for the Leafs will go through Tampa and if they can ice a better and deeper team because of better cap management, then our Leafs enter every playoff year at a disadvantage from the start.

Not just TB either as Boston's top line is locked up long term at $19.66 mil for that same Cap hit Dubas essentially got Matthews and Nylander locked up over the same terms. Then toss in JT and MM both making double digits also and those pair will make more than Boston' top line also.

IMO the worst thing you can do is overspend on your own players in a Cap World as cap management in vital to long-term success.

 

[RLF]

The thing is that using a say 12.45 8 year rate yields a 5 of 11.07.

How do you come up with the math for that? The 8 years would buy 3 extra UFA years which would be at the highest rate.

 

[Mess]

You can't pretend Muzzin doesn't exist because he shoots left. Dubas got the guy Babcock and everyone else wanted and he is sabotaging himself by playing Zaitsev and Hainsey more than him.

I have always been supportive of Babcock, and still am with regards to just about everything he does, but this is elephant-in-the-room bad and can't continue.

Muzzin doesn't play the same position as Hainsey and Zaitsev. Muzzin is fine and filling in for the injured Gardiner and Dermott right now.

When everyone is healthy on D.

Left Defense ----- Right Defense
Rielly ------------------ Hanisey
Muzzin ---------------- Zaitsev
Gardiner ------------- Ozhiganov
Dermott ------------- Holl
Marincin

Babs has 4 LHD that play on the left that he trusts and only 2 x RHD and there is no choice but to overplay Hainsey and Zaitsev because he is avoiding playing Oz & Holl which are essentially AHL level dmen and need insulated minutes and easy QofC.

Since Hainsey is the NHL league leader in +/- at +33 there is no logical reason why he shouldn't play him as much as he does. How can the player with the BEST goal differential at ES 5v5 be used as a complaint against the coach for usage?

 

[RLF]

As a UFA. Most people understand Matthews @12.5% for say 7y or 8y. 11% @5y.

Nylander vs Matthews contract = both are not good, but it's plausible that Nylander will hit a level of performance that justifies the numbers. Matthews has near no hope of being McDavid level. Bad contract is just that

This is just a guesstimate. But if you make McDavid's contract only 5 years, losing 3 bought UFA years, I would think you are looking at 5 years $10M-$10.5M as most would be RFA years in the contract. It could be easily argued that Matthews 5 years is at a higher rate than what McDavid's comparable 5 year contract would have been.

 

[dangomon]

No, they won't.
Matthews stole Kapanen's lunch money.
The 5 year term for AM34 is a travesty at that money.

Matthews deal has absolutely no effect on Kapanen. Even if they got him for 8 years at 11.5 (which it seems like most people would be happy with), the cap hit next year is the same and the cap space remains the same for Kapanen's deal. Hate the contract all you want, but it plays no part in Kap's future.

 

[Zybalto]

Muzzin doesn't play the same position as Hainsey and Zaitsev. Muzzin is fine and filling in for the injured Gardiner and Dermott right now.

When everyone is healthy on D.

Left Defense ----- Right Defense
Rielly ------------------ Hanisey
Muzzin ---------------- Zaitsev
Gardiner ------------- Ozhiganov
Dermott ------------- Holl
Marincin

Babs has 4 LHD that play on the left that he trusts and only 2 x RHD and there is no choice but to overplay Hainsey and Zaitsev because he is avoiding playing Oz & Holl which are essentially AHL level dmen and need insulated minutes and easy QofC.

Since Hainsey is the NHL league leader in +/- at +33 there is no logical reason why he shouldn't play him as much as he does. How can the player with the BEST goal differential at ES 5v5 be used as a complaint against the coach for usage?

It hasnt helped that goaltending has been uneven since the Muzzin trade in addition to the injuries.

Makes defensive dmen look worse when the keeper is letting shots in. Cameramen love getting that snap judgement close up on the player they instantly blame. (I hate that garbage)

Hainsey has been a rock the last couple months.

 

[ITM]

Dubas on the surface looking in seems to be sabotaging Babcock his own coach.

Babcock constantly comments on needing size and wanting to play a heavier game, with an ability to be stronger on the puck, and pleads for a RHD top 4 guy to help the defense out on the right side.

Jake Muzzin is an RHD, 6'3" and 213 lbs and renown league-wide as a physical defenceman.

Is your premise lacking the caveat that should have read, "With the exception of the top RHD with size and skill that is Jake Muzzin, Babcock constantly comments on needing size...".

Because again, Mess, as has been asked a few times before concerning some of your posts: Are you intentionally stirring the pot? Or do you not count elements that contradict your strong opinion because they don't fit the preferred outcome i.e. Getting rid of Babcock by any means necessary.

If Dubas is stabotaging his coach, I don't know man...Maybe I need to just be a Red Wings fan and call it a day, because it feels more like our fanbase engages in willful deception to self-sabotage at every available opportunity.

Edited to read: And that's just weird.

 

[Zybalto]

Isnt Muzzin a LHD?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

but it plays no part in Kap's future.

Other than the hard cap salary cap

 

[RLF]

Dubas is trying to be a Players GM.
Gets rid of no facial hair rule
Promised Leivo he would be traded if Babcock doesn't play him. He is traded for basically nothing.
Nylander sits. And Dubas tops off his contract and gives him top dollar at new market value and gives him a verbal No trade
Matthews gets a contract that because it is for 5 years, is likely more than what McDavid's contract at 5 years would have been
Keeps Sparks over McBackup

I'm sure the players and agents so far are thrilled this guy is in charge. Interesting to see if he can build a team while also being a players GM.

 

[4thline]

How do you come up with the math for that? The 8 years would buy 3 extra UFA years which would be at the highest rate.

12.45*8 = 96
10.149*4= 40.596 (10.149 = offersheet with comp of 1st+1st+2nd+3rd taking him right to UFA
96-40.596= 59.004 / 4 = 14.751
40.596+14.751 =55.347 / 5 = 11.07

Minimum contract to take him to UFA + a reasonable opportunity cost of a UFA year

 

[hector morrison]

Dubas on the surface looking in seems to be sabotaging Babcock his own coach.

Babcock constantly comments on needing size and wanting to play a heavier game, with an ability to be stronger on the puck, and pleads for a RHD top 4 guy to help the defense out on the right side.

Dubas seems to ignore all that and best he comes up with is 5-9 Nic Petan to sit in the pressbox, intentionally doing the exact opposite to Babs as if there is already some power struggle going on. .

If the Leafs lose Babcock will take the blame but Dubas set the stage if they get into a physical series with the Bruins and bow out early again. Dubas hands Babcock a knife and sends him into a gun fight and then if he doesn't win will attempt to make him the fall guy. Then Dubas will promote his boy Keefe from the Marlies as his next coach, should Babcock be removed,

Once all the big contracts kick in Leafs will have 3 of the highest AAV players in the league including #2 and #3 AAV highest, that will severely hurt Leafs depth and all the money on expensive forwards the DCore personnel will get even weaker making it more difficult for Leafs to win going forward.

You should write for Harlequin!I'm cryin already.

 

[hector morrison]

You can't pretend Muzzin doesn't exist because he shoots left. Dubas got the guy Babcock and everyone else wanted and he is sabotaging himself by playing Zaitsev and Hainsey more than him.

I have always been supportive of Babcock, and still am with regards to just about everything he does, but this is elephant-in-the-room bad and can't continue.

Yeah,but he be stubborn like dat!

 

[RLF]

12.45*8 = 96
10.149*4= 40.596 (10.149 = offersheet with comp of 1st+1st+2nd+3rd taking him right to UFA
96-40.596= 59.004 / 4 = 14.751
40.596+14.751 =55.347 / 5 = 11.07

Minimum contract to take him to UFA + a reasonable opportunity cost of a UFA year

I would say the math is solid, but your value of 4 RFA years is high.imo
If Matthews only wanted to sign for 4 years taking him straight to UFA, the Leafs would be stupid to give $10.149 per for 4 years and then see him walk.

 

[hector morrison]

Dubas is trying to be a Players GM.
Gets rid of no facial hair rule
Promised Leivo he would be traded if Babcock doesn't play him. He is traded for basically nothing.
Nylander sits. And Dubas tops off his contract and gives him top dollar at new market value and gives him a verbal No trade
Matthews gets a contract that because it is for 5 years, is likely more than what McDavid's contract at 5 years would have been
Keeps Sparks over McBackup

I'm sure the players and agents so far are thrilled this guy is in charge. Interesting to see if he can build a team while also being a players GM.

It will certainly be interesting.
I give Dubas an "A" so far...no need for doom and gloom forecast from all the 'glass is half empty ' soothsayers. This is a really good team,with a really good coach,with really frikken high unrealistic expectations(by most). These high paid kids are here now for a while,try to enjoy it while we get a chance to see them evolve.