BB88
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He's not the only one on the ice, Florida is pretty .....ed with a combination of no #1D and the worst goalie duo in the league.
I hope Bergeron takes this one.
The Selke Thread
- Thread starter GnrlDisarray
- Start date
He's not the only one on the ice, Florida is pretty .....ed with a combination of no #1D and the worst goalie duo in the league.
I hope Bergeron takes this one.
He was directly beat on 2 of the goals last night. First one Seguin beats him to loose puck and makes an easy pass out front for a goal. Second one he is caught flat footed on a turnover and Seguin walks around him and sets up goal. The stars also scored at the buzzer but it was half a second too late, Barkov would’ve been a minus on that one as well as he was coasting in the back check.
BB88
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So we are basing things on 1 game now, and ignore all the higlight defensive plays he has made?
Everyone of these guys will have off games. Florida is simply badly build team on the defensive side, and so far Tallon has shown to do nothing about it.
Hahahhaha, that's a great comment to make, as there are 20 other guys on the team too. The guy is playing great, gave his team a chance to win once again.
Got flat footed on the third goal, because Matheson can't clear the puck even if his life depended on it.
StoneHands
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2 goals (is this a Selke stat?) but on the ice for 3 against and was also on the ice for one that was a tenth of a second after the buzzer ending the 2nd period. The first goal he got beat to a loose puck and lazily just stuck his stick out instead of keeping his feet moving and let Seguin go untouched around the net and dish it out for an easy goal. Another one he's just standing around because he thought they were going to clear the zone and Seguin put a pass right between Barkov's stick and his feet to Benn who then fed Radulov for a slam dunk one timer.
On the ice for 10 shot attempts for and 18 against at 5 on 5 for a 35.7% Corsi. 44% on faceoffs. No takeaways, blocked shots, or hits and he took a tripping penalty. Aside from piling up more garbage time posts, what exact did Barkov do last night to bring him up in a Selke thread?
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StoneHands
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I get that but when someone comes into a Selke thread and starts bragging about Barkov scoring 2 goals do you not expect people who saw the game to laugh when he was on the ice for 3 goals against and got beat directly before two of them? He was kind of asking for it.
This is true and the comment that was made was that this was a typical game for Barkov this year. PP points while being a -2 or -3 in a loss for the Panthers.
Lol, no. Stone isn't even close to Bergeron or Couturier. He's behind ROR as well. Stone does far less defensively, his work load is laughable compared to those guys.
Stone is elite defensively for a winger but those other guys are just better and do more.. Stone shouldn't be considered when his work load is so minimal in comparison
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StoneHands
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I really don't understand how people can't see how much easier it is for a winger to cover his defenseman, engage in some half board battles, and make smart plays to get out of the zone safely compared to a center who is essentially a 3rd defenseman, has to read plays and cover for any lapses by defenseman, picking up an open man in the slot, clearing rebounds, engaging in board battles in both corners and behind the net and initiating a lot of breakouts. This isn't a knock on guys like Stone but it's not even debatable that their job is much easier than a center.
hirawl
Used Register
- Dec 27, 2010
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Mick Riddleton
“A day without sunshine is like, you know, night.”
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
So, just for fun, and because I'm still skeptical but intrigued by this RAPM model from Evolving-Hockey which attempts to take all aspects of a player's usage (competition, teammates, ice time, deployment, etc.) and estimate a player's individual impact on something. So I decided to take a look at the RAPM estimated impacts of every Selke winner since 07-08. (The furthest date available for these metrics)
(Remember, we want negative. Negative means a player decreases the amount that the opponent produces. And we want a low percentile. A low percentile means a low amount of players above this guy.)
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
Every "percentile" is calculated among something between 130 and 150 forwards with 900-1000 mins except for 2013 where I used something like 650 minutes.
Pretty interesting. Obviously these metrics didn't even exist in 2009-2010 when Datsyuk was winning his 3rd straight Selke, but if they did, they would say that he was winning them based on merit. Same goes for every one of Bergeron's Selke Trophies. Toews, Kesler, Kopitar, and 08-09 Datsyuk seem a bit more like reputation based picks, but they still put up solid numbers. Whatever this stat is, it does a decent job of quantifying what voters look for in a Selke.
Here is what the average winner looks like:
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
This season, Barkov is getting a lot of discussion. I guess last season's defensive performance has caught up to this season's defensive reputation.
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
He would have the highest positive expected goal, shot attempt, and actual goal impacts of any Selke winner ever. That's not a winning formula at all.
@Machinehead is right. Barkov doesn't deserve to be in these discussions.
(Remember, we want negative. Negative means a player decreases the amount that the opponent produces. And we want a low percentile. A low percentile means a low amount of players above this guy.)
| Player/Season | Stat | Number | Percentile |
| Kopitar 17-18 | xGA Impact | -1.68 | 18% |
| Kopitar 17-18 | CA Impact | -42.9 | 13% |
| Kopitar 17-18 | GA Impact | -0.77 | 30% |
| Bergeron 16-17 | xGA Impact | -4.45 | 3% |
| Bergeron 16-17 | CA Impact | -99.2 | 1% |
| Bergeron 16-17 | GA Impact | -1.68 | 11% |
| Kopitar 15-16 | xGA Impact | -0.54 | 36% |
| Kopitar 15-16 | CA Impact | -25.8 | 31% |
| Kopitar 15-16 | GA Impact | -1.27 | 27% |
| Bergeron 14-15 | xGA Impact | -4.33 | 1% |
| Bergeron 14-15 | CA Impact | -118.2 | 1% |
| Bergeron 14-15 | GA Impact | 1 | 75% |
| Bergeron 13-14 | xGA Impact | -2.7 | 7% |
| Bergeron 13-14 | CA Impact | -116.3 | 1% |
| Bergeron 13-14 | GA Impact | -1.76 | 20% |
| Toews 13 | xGA Impact | -1.68 | 3% |
| Toews 13 | CA Impact | -36 | 9% |
| Toews 13 | GA Impact | -1.09 | 12% |
| Bergeron 11-12 | xGA Impact | -4.02 | 1% |
| Bergeron 11-12 | CA Impact | -54.3 | 10% |
| Bergeron 11-12 | GA Impact | -3.01 | 1% |
| Kesler 10-11 | xGA Impact | -0.42 | 41% |
| Kesler 10-11 | CA Impact | -41 | 15% |
| Kesler 10-11 | GA Impact | -1.1 | 15% |
| Datsyuk 09-10 | xGA Impact | -3.84 | 2% |
| Datsyuk 09-10 | CA Impact | -121 | 1% |
| Datsyuk 09-10 | GA Impact | -3.07 | 1% |
| Datsyuk -08-09 | xGA Impact | -0.16 | 51% |
| Datsyuk -08-09 | CA Impact | -48.1 | 12% |
| Datsyuk -08-09 | GA Impact | -0.51 | 30% |
| Datsyuk 07-08 | xGA Impact | -2.24 | 4% |
| Datsyuk 07-08 | CA Impact | -100.8 | 1% |
| Datsyuk 07-08 | GA Impact | -1.85 | 12% |
Every "percentile" is calculated among something between 130 and 150 forwards with 900-1000 mins except for 2013 where I used something like 650 minutes.
Pretty interesting. Obviously these metrics didn't even exist in 2009-2010 when Datsyuk was winning his 3rd straight Selke, but if they did, they would say that he was winning them based on merit. Same goes for every one of Bergeron's Selke Trophies. Toews, Kesler, Kopitar, and 08-09 Datsyuk seem a bit more like reputation based picks, but they still put up solid numbers. Whatever this stat is, it does a decent job of quantifying what voters look for in a Selke.
Here is what the average winner looks like:
| Stat | Number | Percentile |
| xGA Impact | -2.369090909 | 15% |
| CA Impact | -73.05454545 | 9% |
| GA Impact | -1.373636364 | 21% |
This season, Barkov is getting a lot of discussion. I guess last season's defensive performance has caught up to this season's defensive reputation.
| Player | Stat | Number | Percentile |
| Barkov | xGA Impact | 0.39 | 47% |
| Barkov | CA Impact | -21.9 | 24% |
| Barkov | GA Impact | 1.19 | 63% |
He would have the highest positive expected goal, shot attempt, and actual goal impacts of any Selke winner ever. That's not a winning formula at all.
@Machinehead is right. Barkov doesn't deserve to be in these discussions.
Van Buren Boy
--------------------
- Aug 18, 2006
- 1,541
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So, just for fun, and because I'm still skeptical but intrigued by this RAPM model from Evolving-Hockey which attempts to take all aspects of a player's usage (competition, teammates, ice time, deployment, etc.) and estimate a player's individual impact on something. So I decided to take a look at the RAPM estimated impacts of every Selke winner since 07-08. (The furthest date available for these metrics)
(Remember, we want negative. Negative means a player decreases the amount that the opponent produces. And we want a low percentile. A low percentile means a low amount of players above this guy.)
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Player/Season Stat Number Percentile Kopitar 17-18 xGA Impact -1.68 18% Kopitar 17-18 CA Impact -42.9 13% Kopitar 17-18 GA Impact -0.77 30% Bergeron 16-17 xGA Impact -4.45 3% Bergeron 16-17 CA Impact -99.2 1% Bergeron 16-17 GA Impact -1.68 11% Kopitar 15-16 xGA Impact -0.54 36% Kopitar 15-16 CA Impact -25.8 31% Kopitar 15-16 GA Impact -1.27 27% Bergeron 14-15 xGA Impact -4.33 1% Bergeron 14-15 CA Impact -118.2 1% Bergeron 14-15 GA Impact 1 75% Bergeron 13-14 xGA Impact -2.7 7% Bergeron 13-14 CA Impact -116.3 1% Bergeron 13-14 GA Impact -1.76 20% Toews 13 xGA Impact -1.68 3% Toews 13 CA Impact -36 9% Toews 13 GA Impact -1.09 12% Bergeron 11-12 xGA Impact -4.02 1% Bergeron 11-12 CA Impact -54.3 10% Bergeron 11-12 GA Impact -3.01 1% Kesler 10-11 xGA Impact -0.42 41% Kesler 10-11 CA Impact -41 15% Kesler 10-11 GA Impact -1.1 15% Datsyuk 09-10 xGA Impact -3.84 2% Datsyuk 09-10 CA Impact -121 1% Datsyuk 09-10 GA Impact -3.07 1% Datsyuk -08-09 xGA Impact -0.16 51% Datsyuk -08-09 CA Impact -48.1 12% Datsyuk -08-09 GA Impact -0.51 30% Datsyuk 07-08 xGA Impact -2.24 4% Datsyuk 07-08 CA Impact -100.8 1% Datsyuk 07-08 GA Impact -1.85 12%
Every "percentile" is calculated among something between 130 and 150 forwards with 900-1000 mins except for 2013 where I used something like 650 minutes.
Pretty interesting. Obviously these metrics didn't even exist in 2009-2010 when Datsyuk was winning his 3rd straight Selke, but if they did, they would say that he was winning them based on merit. Same goes for every one of Bergeron's Selke Trophies. Toews, Kesler, Kopitar, and 08-09 Datsyuk seem a bit more like reputation based picks, but they still put up solid numbers. Whatever this stat is, it does a decent job of quantifying what voters look for in a Selke.
Here is what the average winner looks like:
This season, Barkov is getting a lot of discussion. I guess last season's defensive performance has caught up to this season's defensive reputation.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Stat Number Percentile xGA Impact -2.369090909 15% CA Impact -73.05454545 9% GA Impact -1.373636364 21%
He would have the highest positive expected goal, shot attempt, and actual goal impacts of any Selke winner ever. That's not a winning formula at all.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Player Stat Number Percentile Barkov xGA Impact 0.39 47% Barkov CA Impact -21.9 24% Barkov GA Impact 1.19 63%
@Machinehead is right. Barkov doesn't deserve to be in these discussions.
I'd be curious to see what Couturier looks like this year
StoneHands
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2013
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I honestly don't know anything about those numbers but I'm curious, do you have the numbers for Bergeron, Couturier, and ROR?So, just for fun, and because I'm still skeptical but intrigued by this RAPM model from Evolving-Hockey which attempts to take all aspects of a player's usage (competition, teammates, ice time, deployment, etc.) and estimate a player's individual impact on something. So I decided to take a look at the RAPM estimated impacts of every Selke winner since 07-08. (The furthest date available for these metrics)
(Remember, we want negative. Negative means a player decreases the amount that the opponent produces. And we want a low percentile. A low percentile means a low amount of players above this guy.)
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Player/Season Stat Number Percentile Kopitar 17-18 xGA Impact -1.68 18% Kopitar 17-18 CA Impact -42.9 13% Kopitar 17-18 GA Impact -0.77 30% Bergeron 16-17 xGA Impact -4.45 3% Bergeron 16-17 CA Impact -99.2 1% Bergeron 16-17 GA Impact -1.68 11% Kopitar 15-16 xGA Impact -0.54 36% Kopitar 15-16 CA Impact -25.8 31% Kopitar 15-16 GA Impact -1.27 27% Bergeron 14-15 xGA Impact -4.33 1% Bergeron 14-15 CA Impact -118.2 1% Bergeron 14-15 GA Impact 1 75% Bergeron 13-14 xGA Impact -2.7 7% Bergeron 13-14 CA Impact -116.3 1% Bergeron 13-14 GA Impact -1.76 20% Toews 13 xGA Impact -1.68 3% Toews 13 CA Impact -36 9% Toews 13 GA Impact -1.09 12% Bergeron 11-12 xGA Impact -4.02 1% Bergeron 11-12 CA Impact -54.3 10% Bergeron 11-12 GA Impact -3.01 1% Kesler 10-11 xGA Impact -0.42 41% Kesler 10-11 CA Impact -41 15% Kesler 10-11 GA Impact -1.1 15% Datsyuk 09-10 xGA Impact -3.84 2% Datsyuk 09-10 CA Impact -121 1% Datsyuk 09-10 GA Impact -3.07 1% Datsyuk -08-09 xGA Impact -0.16 51% Datsyuk -08-09 CA Impact -48.1 12% Datsyuk -08-09 GA Impact -0.51 30% Datsyuk 07-08 xGA Impact -2.24 4% Datsyuk 07-08 CA Impact -100.8 1% Datsyuk 07-08 GA Impact -1.85 12%
Every "percentile" is calculated among something between 130 and 150 forwards with 900-1000 mins except for 2013 where I used something like 650 minutes.
Pretty interesting. Obviously these metrics didn't even exist in 2009-2010 when Datsyuk was winning his 3rd straight Selke, but if they did, they would say that he was winning them based on merit. Same goes for every one of Bergeron's Selke Trophies. Toews, Kesler, Kopitar, and 08-09 Datsyuk seem a bit more like reputation based picks, but they still put up solid numbers. Whatever this stat is, it does a decent job of quantifying what voters look for in a Selke.
Here is what the average winner looks like:
This season, Barkov is getting a lot of discussion. I guess last season's defensive performance has caught up to this season's defensive reputation.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Stat Number Percentile xGA Impact -2.369090909 15% CA Impact -73.05454545 9% GA Impact -1.373636364 21%
He would have the highest positive expected goal, shot attempt, and actual goal impacts of any Selke winner ever. That's not a winning formula at all.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Player Stat Number Percentile Barkov xGA Impact 0.39 47% Barkov CA Impact -21.9 24% Barkov GA Impact 1.19 63%
@Machinehead is right. Barkov doesn't deserve to be in these discussions.
So, just for fun, and because I'm still skeptical but intrigued by this RAPM model from Evolving-Hockey which attempts to take all aspects of a player's usage (competition, teammates, ice time, deployment, etc.) and estimate a player's individual impact on something. So I decided to take a look at the RAPM estimated impacts of every Selke winner since 07-08. (The furthest date available for these metrics)
(Remember, we want negative. Negative means a player decreases the amount that the opponent produces. And we want a low percentile. A low percentile means a low amount of players above this guy.)
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Player/Season Stat Number Percentile Kopitar 17-18 xGA Impact -1.68 18% Kopitar 17-18 CA Impact -42.9 13% Kopitar 17-18 GA Impact -0.77 30% Bergeron 16-17 xGA Impact -4.45 3% Bergeron 16-17 CA Impact -99.2 1% Bergeron 16-17 GA Impact -1.68 11% Kopitar 15-16 xGA Impact -0.54 36% Kopitar 15-16 CA Impact -25.8 31% Kopitar 15-16 GA Impact -1.27 27% Bergeron 14-15 xGA Impact -4.33 1% Bergeron 14-15 CA Impact -118.2 1% Bergeron 14-15 GA Impact 1 75% Bergeron 13-14 xGA Impact -2.7 7% Bergeron 13-14 CA Impact -116.3 1% Bergeron 13-14 GA Impact -1.76 20% Toews 13 xGA Impact -1.68 3% Toews 13 CA Impact -36 9% Toews 13 GA Impact -1.09 12% Bergeron 11-12 xGA Impact -4.02 1% Bergeron 11-12 CA Impact -54.3 10% Bergeron 11-12 GA Impact -3.01 1% Kesler 10-11 xGA Impact -0.42 41% Kesler 10-11 CA Impact -41 15% Kesler 10-11 GA Impact -1.1 15% Datsyuk 09-10 xGA Impact -3.84 2% Datsyuk 09-10 CA Impact -121 1% Datsyuk 09-10 GA Impact -3.07 1% Datsyuk -08-09 xGA Impact -0.16 51% Datsyuk -08-09 CA Impact -48.1 12% Datsyuk -08-09 GA Impact -0.51 30% Datsyuk 07-08 xGA Impact -2.24 4% Datsyuk 07-08 CA Impact -100.8 1% Datsyuk 07-08 GA Impact -1.85 12%
Every "percentile" is calculated among something between 130 and 150 forwards with 900-1000 mins except for 2013 where I used something like 650 minutes.
Pretty interesting. Obviously these metrics didn't even exist in 2009-2010 when Datsyuk was winning his 3rd straight Selke, but if they did, they would say that he was winning them based on merit. Same goes for every one of Bergeron's Selke Trophies. Toews, Kesler, Kopitar, and 08-09 Datsyuk seem a bit more like reputation based picks, but they still put up solid numbers. Whatever this stat is, it does a decent job of quantifying what voters look for in a Selke.
Here is what the average winner looks like:
This season, Barkov is getting a lot of discussion. I guess last season's defensive performance has caught up to this season's defensive reputation.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Stat Number Percentile xGA Impact -2.369090909 15% CA Impact -73.05454545 9% GA Impact -1.373636364 21%
He would have the highest positive expected goal, shot attempt, and actual goal impacts of any Selke winner ever. That's not a winning formula at all.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Player Stat Number Percentile Barkov xGA Impact 0.39 47% Barkov CA Impact -21.9 24% Barkov GA Impact 1.19 63%
@Machinehead is right. Barkov doesn't deserve to be in these discussions.
Actually if you look RAPM models statistics from Barkov's last year, he had worse GA, CA, xGA impacts than this year. So obviously the reputation came out of no where.
Also Bergerons statistics from last season isnt impressive.
This years statistics shows that Crosby is strongest to win Selke, after him comes O'Reilly and Couturier.
Finally Sidney takes Selke home.
rocketdan9
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- Feb 5, 2009
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LGB
Registered User
- Feb 4, 2019
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I don't know where he got the percentiles, but here are the raw stats. Added in Crosby and Stone.
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
If you want to check out their stats yourself: Evolving-Hockey
| Bergeron | Couturier | O'Reilly | Crosby | Stone | |
| xGA impact | -1.79 | -3.1 | -2.89 | -3.49 | -2.91 |
| actual GA impact | 0.12 | -0.23 | -5.67 | -3.28 | -2.17 |
| CA impact | -36.8 | -86 | -75.6 | -62.4 | -63.3 |
If you want to check out their stats yourself: Evolving-Hockey
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LGB
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LGB
Registered User
- Feb 4, 2019
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- 2,139
I posted the numbers he is referring to just a few posts up. Doesn't look like Crosby has the strongest case to me.
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