Salary Cap: The Salary Cap Thread | Countdown to Camp

[Riptide]

When things go right for them, they will. But I doubt Maatta's offense ever comes back to where it should be playing with Schultz. And when they mess up, it will be ugly.

The main issue I have with a Maatta Schultz pairing, is that it leaves Cole and Hunwick together... and unless they somehow defy the odds... I see those two as a pairing that would get hemmed in on a semi regular basis.

 

[Gurglesons]

My point is that the argument doesn't make sense. People who say don't trade Maatta would rip Hainsey despite hardly being a signifantly worse player by the stats. You can say Letang props Dumoulin up. Ok. Let's see how Maatta does this season.

You're still operating off stretches of good play and potential with Olli. Dumoulin works with Letang, we don't need Maatta to replace him. Cole works with Schultz. We only need a partner for Hunwick to take on some tougher matchups and not get scored on a lot. Maatta works there but is hardly irreplaceable. That's all I've ever said.

I'm happy keeping Maatta. Just not someone who's gonna say no to trading him in the right deal.

Oh okay. I can agree with that completely.

Schultz, Maatta and Dumo are all solid players. Cole too. At their peaks they are #3s (Cole a #4) though, none of them really "carries" a line. A player like Schultz needs a responsible player like Dumo or Cole to keep him in check. A player like Maatta doesn't have enough individual skill as either an offensive or defensive player to carry a pairing. I'm not really attached to any of them though.

Maatta obviously has the most upside right now aside from Schultz, but his skill sets just don't really suit him being an impact defenseman here and he isn't going to be anything but a rover that occasionally steps up. I guess he could turn out to be a ****** version of Stralman next to Letang, but I'd argue Dumo already minus the offense.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Maatta's possession stats are better with Daley than Dumo's with Hainsey in the playoffs.

Dumoulin
CF% - 44.84
FF% - 45.65
SF% - 47.03*
GF% - 64.52*
SCF% - 46.90*
HDCF% - 51.88*
HDGF% - 57.89*
OZ% - 41.98*

Maatta
CF% - 45.90*
FF% - 46.32*
SF% - 45.88
GF% - 60.00
SCF% - 46.09
HDCF% - 51.37
HDGF% - 56.52
OZ% - 47.97

*Denotes leader

One could argue they favor Dumoulin, when you factor in much tougher zone starts and how each did in terms of the dangerous scoring areas.

 

[Riptide]

Hypothetical - if Sakic says he doesn't like Maatta but he really likes Dumo, would people still be prepared to do a deal/what's the biggest add they'd do there?

I wouldn't trade Dumoulin in a Duchene deal - not even 1-1. Despite his limitations - and he has some, he's still easily good enough to play with Letang against the top lines in the league without looking out of place (usually). The only reason I'm willing to include Maatta is that despite his skillset, his skating is holding him back to the point that the fit here is clearly less than ideal. Other than his skating, I do not have an issue with him or his contract. And if Maatta's skating somehow turned into Cole/Dumoulin/Hunwick level, Maatta too would be almost untouchable.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Everyone's speculation is that it's Maatta that JR would dangle, but if Sakic wants Dumoulin, everyone's finally thinking clearly saying no.

 

[billybudd]

Dumoulin seems to be overrated and Maatta seems to be very underrated based on what I'm reading in here right now. Here's what their regular season look like in the last 2 years:

Maatta: 122 games, 7 goals and 26 points, 19:06 TOI/game, 51.1% CF%, 62.0% GF%, 1.93 GA/60, .733 ES points/60
Dumoulin: 149 games, 1 goal and 31 points, 19:40 TOI/game, 52.1 CF%, 51.3% GF%, 2.28 GA/60, .649 ES points/60

The idea that Dumoulin's a borderline top pair D and Maatta's a fringe #4/5 is just laughably untrue. Nothing I'm seeing supports the idea that there is much separation between the two, the difference is that Dumoulin just looks better because he can skate better. That's it. People here can't differentiate between Maatta not being able to skate well and Maatta not being good, which makes absolutely no sense to me. He's not a worse player by Dumoulin by any significant margin. Maatta was actually probably better than Dumoulin last year, even with his awful offensive numbers. It's because Dumoulin wasn't good this year, he provided no offensive game and he was giving up a ton of goals left and right (2.64 ES goals against/60)

When he's playing well, there's a subtlety to Olli's decision-making that's easy to miss (and is probably why his analytics are so strong), but Maatta has more games where he is absolute ****. Dumoulin usually hovers between okay and very good at what he does (which is basically to be a young Paul Martin without the offense).

The idea that Maatta's been better than Dumoulin over the last 24 months is wrong, though, no matter what their Fenwick says. Dumoulin's just the better player right now. He's been thrown to the wolves almost from the beginning and has come out on top, where Maatta's been all over the place over the years with variable success.

I wouldn't trade Dumoulin in a Duchene deal - not even 1-1. Despite his limitations - and he has some, he's still easily good enough to play with Letang against the top lines in the league without looking out of place (usually).

I agree. We've basically been able to use Dumoulin as a #2, even if he technically doesn't qualify due to lack of offense. A #2 D is more important than a 3C, no matter who the latter guy is.

 

[PensandCaps]

Sometimes you just gotta use the eye test. Dumo has been better than Maatta since both cup runs despite whatever those fancy stats say. Dumo's lows are not as bad as Maatta's. But Maatta was very good these playoffs, I don't see how anyone could aurgue that Maatta was better than Dumo in the 2016 cup run, Maatta was abysmal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

When he's playing well, there's a subtlety to Olli's decision-making that's easy to miss (and is probably why his analytics are so strong), but Maatta has more games where he is absolute ****. Dumoulin usually hovers between okay and very good at what he does (which is basically to be a young Paul Martin without the offense).

The idea that Maatta's been better than Dumoulin over the last 24 months is wrong, though, no matter what their Fenwick says. Dumoulin's just the better player right now. He's been thrown to the wolves almost from the beginning and has come out on top, where Maatta's been all over the place over the years with variable success.

Maatta has played against just as tough competition as Dumoulin has over the last 2 years. Maatta's lows are lower than Dumoulin's, but that doesn't make him a worse player. Dumoulin wasn't good last regular season, I don't know why people are trying to sugarcoat it any other way.

But really, I wasn't trying to make the point that Maatta is better than Dumoulin. I was making the point that it's asinine to say that Maatta is replaceable by Hainsey while Dumoulin is an irreplaceable cornerstone to the defense, because that's just asininely incorrect. If Maatta is replaceable by Hainsey, then so is Dumoulin, or at least Dumoulin is really close go replaceable by Hainsey. Maatta statistically has done just as well as Dumoulin in the last 2 years while also playing against tough competition. The idea that there's a significant difference between the two is a pure fallacy.

If you're not willing to trade Dumoulin for Duchene, you shouldn't be willing to trade Maatta for Duchene. There's nothing that Dumoulin can do that Maatta can't do, minus skate well.

 

[Peat]

Yeah. If we're going solely by stats then, yeah, Hainsey wouldn't be a bad replacement for either guy... there's really not a whole lot between any of them. Although the puck moving is sufficiently the wrong side of good to be an issue for Hainsey in a way its not for Maatta or Dumo

Use a bit of eye test as well and you begin to realise that Hainsey's transition game is murder on this team and that Dumo's greater comfort with cleaning up after offensive dmen is probably a bit more valuable to us than Maatta's all round game, or at least it is when Maatta is being inconsistent.

But only a bit. That's the point of all these stats - a counter-balance to the idea that Dumo is/has been a greatly more valuable player for us.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

for sure. I'm just saying Maatta wouldn't be my holdup assuming he's the biggest piece going. I likely wouldn't want to add what they are asking. A Maatta, a 1st and Sheary would probably be my max offer. I wouldn't love it, but I think I'd do it. If they want Sprong, I'm out. We need a cheap guy like him more than we need the superstar level 3C imo.

I guess I am not as high on a Duchene trade as most, because I would not pay that price (Maatta, Sheary AND a 1st) for Duchene. I love Matt Duchene as a player, but I love him more as a right-winger than a center to be honest. Plus, it's a two-year rental because I seriously doubt we are keeping him beyond that (unless we move him to wing).

Wow, that's a hard one but it's a no for me. I might consider a one for one trade of Dumo and Duchene, like Hall for Larsson, if Duchene was signed for more than 2 years.

I'd consider dealing Dumoulin in a Duchene trade, but Sakic won't do a 1-for-1 and I would not include much more to close the deal. At most, I would be willing to part with Dumoulin/Maatta and a Blueger for Duchene.

Our players are not at a level playing field with the rest of the league. A lot of our players, young veterans, have one or two Stanley Cup rings to their names. That is value that cannot be measured by analytics. These guys have proven you can win with them. So, a Brian Dumoulin has more value than a Calvin De Haan. A LOT more. Olli Maatta has more value than Nick Leddy, imo.

Besides, JR is the last GM Sakic will want to play a game of chicken with. JR has the best team and Sakic has the worst team. If Sakic is playing chicken with someone, it is likely some other desperate GM. Not JR.

Sometimes you just gotta use the eye test. Dumo has been better than Maatta since both cup runs despite whatever those fancy stats say. Dumo's lows are not as bad as Maatta's. But Maatta was very good these playoffs, I don't see how anyone could argue that Maatta was better than Dumo in the 2016 cup run, Maatta was abysmal.

Not just the eye test. You have to use projection, as well. Is it safe to say Dumoulin has pretty much maxed out his upside? Has Maatta?

The job of JR and co. is to evaluate those two players today, and where each will be 3-5 seasons from now. And that goes for any player that may or may not be moved out in order to acquire a third-line center.

Which always brings me back to my main point: the player to trade in order to land a quality No. 3 center is Patric Hornqvist.

As far as the defensemen go, I'd keep both Dumoulin and Maatta. If we have to part with a defenseman, my preference would be to deal Hunwick. I know that sounds unrealistic because we just landed him, but I don't love his contract and I also think Pouliot can do Hunwick's role at a much cheaper rate for the next little while (if only we gave him the opportunity to do so).

I guess Hunwick would not be too happy about being dealt immediately after signing, but this is a business. I am sure he talked with a number of clubs before signing here. Maybe one of those clubs would want him now, and maybe one of those clubs has a potential 3C that we could use.

If we are talking about the most expendable assets, for me they are Hornqvist and Hunwick.

 

[Shady Machine]

If you're not willing to trade Dumoulin for Duchene, you shouldn't be willing to trade Maatta for Duchene. There's nothing that Dumoulin can do that Maatta can't do, minus skate well.

But skating is extremely important and Dumo fits our system like a glove because of his skating. That is precisely why some of us are more comfortable moving Maatta for Duchene vs Dumoulin.

 

[Empoleon8771]

But skating is extremely important and Dumo fits our system like a glove because of his skating. That is precisely why some of us are more comfortable moving Maatta for Duchene vs Dumoulin.

Yeah, that's a valid opinion to have, however you shouldn't really be comfortable with trading either of them. Saying you can replace Maatta with Hainsey because he's only a #4/5D while Dumoulin is a cornerstone on the defense isn't a valid opinion to have.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Yeah. If we're going solely by stats then, yeah, Hainsey wouldn't be a bad replacement for either guy... there's really not a whole lot between any of them. Although the puck moving is sufficiently the wrong side of good to be an issue for Hainsey in a way its not for Maatta or Dumo

Use a bit of eye test as well and you begin to realise that Hainsey's transition game is murder on this team and that Dumo's greater comfort with cleaning up after offensive dmen is probably a bit more valuable to us than Maatta's all round game, or at least it is when Maatta is being inconsistent.

But only a bit. That's the point of all these stats - a counter-balance to the idea that Dumo is/has been a greatly more valuable player for us.

OK, everybody bashes the hell out of Ron Hainsey, but ask yourself this: would either Olli Maatta or Brian Dumoulin be as effective as they currently are if they had to play big minutes on the RIGHT side, the same way Hainsey did for us (and will likely do for Toronto this season). Remember, we had no replacement for Letang until Hainsey came aboard. Streit, as much as I love the guy, is a disaster nowadays as a right defenseman. Very often, the guy who plays right defense as a left-handed shot takes a lot of fan abuse, but he essentially is taking one for the team.

You don't think Hainsey would have better fancy stats and look better to the eye if he played left defense all the time?

I admire the hell out of players who will do anything for the team, including playing a role that will surely make them look inferior to what they really are.

We still have to see who among Hunwick, Cole or someone else will be able to effectively play the right side on the 2/3 pairing behind Letang. It isn't as easy as one might think.

Scuderi too used to get a lot of hate back when he was playing right defense next to Gill.

 

[Shady Machine]

Yeah, that's a valid opinion to have, however you shouldn't really be comfortable with trading either of them. Saying you can replace Maatta with Hainsey because he's only a #4/5D while Dumoulin is a cornerstone on the defense isn't a valid opinion to have.

Ugh I feel like you are cherry picking what I/others are saying. I'm not saying Hainsey can exactly replace Maatta and I haven't called Maatta a 4/5 quality defender. I'm saying he can adequately replace the role I anticipate Maatta plays on this defense. Certainly not as well, but adequately enough and the upgrade at 3C from W. Karlsson or Sheahan, for example, to Duchene is worth that downgrade.

 

[Andy99]

But skating is extremely important and Dumo fits our system like a glove because of his skating. That is precisely why some of us are more comfortable moving Maatta for Duchene vs Dumoulin.

This. I just think Maatta played more consistently in a more defensively structured system, I.e under Johnson (when he played), and that Sully's more offensive, pinching system has been tough for him at times. There's more risk he can get burned because of his skating

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Yeah, that's a valid opinion to have, however you shouldn't really be comfortable with trading either of them. Saying you can replace Maatta with Hainsey because he's only a #4/5D while Dumoulin is a cornerstone on the defense isn't a valid opinion to have.

Maatta can't be replaced with Hainsey, not even considering upside. But Dumo is the better player right now. Not only does he work very well with Letang, but also with defense first guys like Hainsey and Lovejoy. Dumo and LJ were playing the toughest QoC in the league in the regular season two years ago and coming out ahead.
So Dumo can probably pair successfully with just about anybody. Not to mention he's bigger, stronger, a better skater, and has proven more durable so far.

If Maatta gains a step or even a half step, maybe things change. And I don't think we should just dump Maatta, but he's not a passable #2 right now, and Dumo is.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Ugh I feel like you are cherry picking what I/others are saying. I'm not saying Hainsey can exactly replace Maatta and I haven't called Maatta a 4/5 quality defender. I'm saying he can adequately replace the role I anticipate Maatta plays on this defense. Certainly not as well, but adequately enough and the upgrade at 3C from W. Karlsson or Sheahan, for example, to Duchene is worth that downgrade.

That is highly debatable, for sure.

Not sure why Hainsey is even in this conversation, seeing as how he will be in Toronto this season. Also, IF we trade a defenseman in any 3C deal, I believe Pouliot and Ruhwedel go from 7-8 to 6-7 on the depth charts, and others would also get a look in camp. Let's not forget we brought in a ton of minor-pro vets who can play.

If the argument is adding a Sheahan and keeping both Maatta and Dumoulin, or adding a Duchene but moving one of Maatta or Dumoulin, I'll take my chances with Sheahan and then keep searching for an upgrade.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

This. I just think Maatta played more consistently in a more defensively structured system, I.e under Johnson (when he played), and that Sully's more offensive, pinching system has been tough for him at times. There's more risk he can get burned because of his skating

He is also WAY better at pinching in and getting shots to the net. Offensively, I do not believe there is any comparison. I don't see Maatta as a liability in an offensive system because he thinks the game so well.

Even Hal Gill could play in our system because he had the intelligence to not get burned by it.

 

[Shady Machine]

That is highly debatable, for sure.

Not sure why Hainsey is even in this conversation, seeing as how he will be in Toronto this season. Also, IF we trade a defenseman in any 3C deal, I believe Pouliot and Ruhwedel go from 7-8 to 6-7 on the depth charts, and others would also get a look in camp. Let's not forget we brought in a ton of minor-pro vets who can play.

If the argument is adding a Sheahan and keeping both Maatta and Dumoulin, or adding a Duchene but moving one of Maatta or Dumoulin, I'll take my chances with Sheahan and then keep searching for an upgrade.

Hainsey was in the conversation because I (and Rip, probably a few others) were suggesting that 4/5 type rentals were far cheaper and easier to find than 3C's are at the deadline.

Some folks have been okay with waiting until deadline to find the right 3C. I think that's short sighted because quality 3C's are rarely traded at the deadline and when they are, see Hanzal, they are very expensive.

I agree this is a reasonable debate without a clear right answer. I just believe Duchene is a unique player that fits this team so well that I'm willing to risk the defense a bit and address with rental at deadline.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Ugh I feel like you are cherry picking what I/others are saying. I'm not saying Hainsey can exactly replace Maatta and I haven't called Maatta a 4/5 quality defender. I'm saying he can adequately replace the role I anticipate Maatta plays on this defense. Certainly not as well, but adequately enough and the upgrade at 3C from W. Karlsson or Sheahan, for example, to Duchene is worth that downgrade.

You're not, but people in here certainly are.

I also completely disagree with the idea that the difference between Maatta and Hainsey is small enough for the upgrade from Sheahan to Duchene. I'd rather have Sheahan and Maatta.

 

[Shady Machine]

You're not, but people in here certainly are.

Fair. I think your viewpoint is reasonable here. In some respects, this argument seems silly because it's pretty unlikely that the Pens acquire Duchene.

 

[Shady Machine]

I also completely disagree with the idea that the difference between Maatta and Hainsey is small enough for the upgrade from Sheahan to Duchene. I'd rather have Sheahan and Maatta.

Reasonable disagreement.