pistolepete said:
I think we have differing opinions on Sheary vs. Hags. I'd prefer Hags for Smith than Sheary for Smith+, but I'd probably do either.
Yeah... but why does Ottawa make that move? I mean maybe if they love Hagelin, but they're a team that's going to be facing a cap crunch next season (or at least a budget one).
Assuming the cap goes up slightly (say 77m), they'll have ~25m to make moves. And they'll need to sign: Anderson, Ceci, Stone and Turris. Depending on how those go (aka the seasons they have this year), I could see those 4 costing 19m or so. Thats in addition to filling out the blueline. Not the end of the world... but the following year they have Brassard & Karlsson to resign. That's going to cost another 16-19m (depending on EK). Fortunately Hagelin's contract expires that summer.
My point is I'm not sure of the reasoning that OTT would make a move for Smith/Hagelin. Smith is a pretty decent middle six winger who's scored 41g/68pts over the last 155 games who's signed to a pretty manageable contract. Add in that he plays a very gritty game and is defensively responsible, and that in itself is appealing. Then add in the fact that he can play as a respectable #3C and is good on draws (52.1% over the last 2 years), and that only adds to his value.
So unless Ottawa is more concerned about their long term salary issues, there's little reason to see why they'd be interested in something around Hagelin. And if they were, Smith's contract isn't something that would be hard to move down the line when those salary issues come up. Hagelin also makes ~425k more a year and carries a 750k higher cap hit.
I mean maybe you could retain on Hagelin to even things out? But I'm still struggling to see the upside for OTT in that sort of deal unless we're adding.
Meh. I don't see why any team would take a risk on a player like Sheary who has historically disappeared in the playoffs or without Crosby. Sheary's value here versus other teams is astronomically different.
If we want to move one of our wings for value I'd go Rust or Hornqvist.
Three reasons.
1) You actually need to get to the playoffs before a player can disappear there. And Sheary (even away from Crosby) will help you do that. Without an elite center and still getting an offensive role with PP minutes, I could see him putting up 25g/50-60pts. For 3x3m, that's pretty decent.
2) It's been two playoffs - where our team was very very different. The first one we dominated and Sheary had highs and lows as a rookie. The second one we were getting hammered and few players stood out to the eye test as amazing.
3) Sure his value here and to other teams is going to be different... but only to an extent. He's still a fast skilled young 2nd line winger signed to a very appealing contract.