The Ryan O’Reilly Discussion Quarantine Zone [All ROR Posts Here] (Mod Notes OP)

[brian_griffin]

It helps you sleep at night to surmise a reason even dumber then the commonly thought of dumb reasons?

Exactly. Because misguided but directed stupidity is the only rational explanation. Botts can't be that dumb.* Pegulas can't be that dumb.* There has to be an aspect of hubris involved.

If they are, heaven help us, we're f'ed.

 

[Beerz]

This is your daily reminder that this trade sucked.

And in turn..so does Jason Botterill... Cap guru

 

[Buffaloed]

Botterill reinforced the suckage by feeding the fans daily reminders in the form of Sobotka, Bergeron Berglund, and Thompson. One of the reasons Carolina was able to improve after trading Skinner is they didn't weigh down their roster with a couple boat anchors and a prospect that isn't ready. Botterill's propensity to take on cap dumps has to be curbed if the Sabres are to develop their roster and move forward. The Evander Kane trade was more acceptable for that reason.

 

[Jame]

Botterill reinforced the suckage by feeding the fans daily reminders in the form of Sobotka, Bergeron, and Thompson. One of the reasons Carolina was able to improve after trading Skinner is they didn't weigh down their roster with a couple boat anchors and a prospect that isn't ready. Botterill's propensity to take on cap dumps has to be curbed if the Sabres are to develop their roster and move forward. The Evander Kane trade was more acceptable for that reason.

We wish

 

[Buffaloed]

We wish

I posted that in B.C. (before coffee)

 

[Chainshot]

I posted that in B.C. (before coffee)

Cloning. We need Pegula bucks for cloning!

 

[Dreakon13]

Botterill's propensity to take on cap dumps has to be curbed if the Sabres are to develop their roster and move forward.

Call me optimistic, a Botts apologist or what have you... stupid even... but I think there's reason to believe we're through the worst of it as far as cap dumps go. It can't just be a coincidence that every cap dump he's acquired is gone after this upcoming year. Even Berglund's cap would've cut in half at that point in the timeline. The players he took could certainly make you think he's not a good talent evaluator (though I don't think any but Thompson and maybe Berglund were ever meant to be more than brief placeholders)... but he hasn't done anything particularly offensive in regards to the cap.

I'd be shocked if he took on any more big cap players this offseason without them either a. having only one year left on their deal or b. being effective for whatever their cap hit is (ie. Skinner). Because anything else (in regards to point A in particular) would completely throw off what is obviously a timeline for dropping vet placeholders for numerous Amerk promotions and/or another overseas UDFA or Montour-esque signing.

 

[Jim Bob]

Call me optimistic, a Botts apologist or what have you... stupid even... but I think there's reason to believe we're through the worst of it as far as cap dumps go. It can't just be a coincidence that every cap dump he's acquired is gone after this upcoming year. Even Berglund's cap would've cut in half at that point in the timeline. The players he took could certainly make you think he's not a good talent evaluator (though I don't think any but Thompson and maybe Berglund were ever meant to be more than brief placeholders)... but he hasn't done anything particularly offensive in regards to the cap.

I'd be shocked if he took on any more big cap players this offseason without them either a. having only one year left on their deal or b. being effective for whatever their cap hit is (ie. Skinner). Because anything else (in regards to point A in particular) would completely throw off what is obviously a timeline for dropping vet placeholders for numerous Amerk promotions and/or another overseas UDFA or Montour-esque signing.

Given his willingness to take on cap dumps in prior trades, I have no reason to believe that will stop in the future.

Just look at the conversation around the Risto to Tampa rumors.

TB has a lot of bad contracts and people are talking about which cap dumps scare them the most.

If Risto to Tampa is the ROR deal all over again, it could be bad. The thing we have to hope for is that guys like Palat, Johnson, and Killorn have NTCs. So, hopefully they block a trade here.

 

[Dreakon13]

Given his willingness to take on cap dumps in prior trades, I have no reason to believe that will stop in the future.

Just look at the conversation around the Risto to Tampa rumors.

TB has a lot of bad contracts and people are talking about which cap dumps scare them the most.

If Risto to Tampa is the ROR deal all over again, it could be bad. The thing we have to hope for is that guys like Palat, Johnson, and Killorn have NTCs. So, hopefully they block a trade here.

I'm all-in on believing Botts has his sights set on 20/21 being the year we have our Toronto-esque "promote all the kids and watch everything click" Cinderella season (which also depends on us nailing the head coach search this time around). Another ROR trade debacle involving Risto with several more-than-one-year cap dumps and project prospects/futures coming back completely throws that timeline off... so like I said, I'd be very surprised. And frankly that's the point where I throw away my cheerleader pom poms I've been waving for Botts.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm all-in on believing Botts has his sights set on 20/21 being the year we have our Toronto-esque "promote all the kids and watch everything click" Cinderella season (which also depends on us nailing the head coach search this time around). Another ROR trade debacle involving Risto with several more-than-one-year cap dumps and project prospects/futures coming back completely throws that timeline off... so like I said, I'd be very surprised. And frankly that's the point where I throw away my cheerleader pom poms I've been waving for Botts.

The fact that he took on four years of Berglund and lucked out with him quitting on the team doubts that he has a gameplan like that.

And honestly, I can't believe his plan was to not compete for the first three years of his tenure here.

 

[OkimLom]

Call me optimistic, a Botts apologist or what have you... stupid even... but I think there's reason to believe we're through the worst of it as far as cap dumps go. It can't just be a coincidence that every cap dump he's acquired is gone after this upcoming year. Even Berglund's cap would've cut in half at that point in the timeline. The players he took could certainly make you think he's not a good talent evaluator (though I don't think any but Thompson and maybe Berglund were ever meant to be more than brief placeholders)... but he hasn't done anything particularly offensive in regards to the cap.

I'd be shocked if he took on any more big cap players this offseason without them either a. having only one year left on their deal or b. being effective for whatever their cap hit is (ie. Skinner). Because anything else (in regards to point A in particular) would completely throw off what is obviously a timeline for dropping vet placeholders for numerous Amerk promotions and/or another overseas UDFA or Montour-esque signing.

It's not just the cap dumps that I take issue with, it's that usually teams that take on cap dumps do so to get another asset to the trade, kind of a "give me an extra draft pick for taking this player off your roster" kind of moves. His cap dumps have not advantageous whatsoever. He took a cap dump in the Sheary trade, a trade which included a conditional draft pick to go from 4th to 3rd if Sheary did well. Any other GM says, we won't give you a conditional draft pick, but we will take this player's salary instead at the very least. All of his cap dumps have been far more advantageous for the other team instead of Buffalo. Look how Vegas built their team and all the favors they did for teams. It helped Vegas immensely.

It was apparent that Buffalo wasn't going to be competitive these first 2 (possibly 3?) years. If we're taking on these first 2 years, we should be swimming in draft picks or getting bad contracts off the books. Instead we're doing favors for other teams, and waiting out those contracts to end, and receiving less than the minimum of return on doing these teams favors.

 

[Dreakon13]

The fact that he took on four years of Berglund and lucked out with him quitting on the team doubts that he has a gameplan like that.

And honestly, I can't believe his plan was to not compete for the first three years of his tenure here.

I do think Berglund was expected to be a productive player on the team (which he really was with Girgs and Larry)... and big coincidence, his cap hit would've cut in half in 20/21. Him quitting hurt more than helped IMO.

I think the road to 20/21 was expected to be rocky as he wanted to just keep the Sabres afloat while the kids developed properly and found success in Rochester. I just think it's been rockier than anyone expected between Housley being a dud and a lot of underachieving outside of a few players... which to be fair, is very much so on Botts for numerous reasons.

But personally, I find it hard to get overly upset that a few expectedly-rocky years have been indeed rocky. The Rochester half of that plan seems to be working... and they moved on from Housley at the right time.

 

[Sabre Dance]

The fact that he took on four years of Berglund and lucked out with him quitting on the team doubts that he has a gameplan like that.

And honestly, I can't believe his plan was to not compete for the first three years of his tenure here.

Berglund had strong possession #s and consistently scored 10+ goals. His cap hit wasn't that bad for what he brought to a team. 3rd line player that could easily sub on the top 2 lines for injury.

I didn't hate adding him or Sobotka. I hate adding them for O'Reilly.

 

[NEcoli]

Given his willingness to take on cap dumps in prior trades, I have no reason to believe that will stop in the future.

Just look at the conversation around the Risto to Tampa rumors.

TB has a lot of bad contracts and people are talking about which cap dumps scare them the most.

If Risto to Tampa is the ROR deal all over again, it could be bad. The thing we have to hope for is that guys like Palat, Johnson, and Killorn have NTCs. So, hopefully they block a trade here.

Ristolainen is not half the player that O'Reilly is. All Botterill has to do to avoid disaster there is to not take on a bad contract with lots of term (any of the three you listed above qualify). Hopefully he's learned from Berglund/Sobotka.

 

[Dreakon13]

It's not just the cap dumps that I take issue with, it's that usually teams that take on cap dumps do so to get another asset to the trade, kind of a "give me an extra draft pick for taking this player off your roster" kind of moves. His cap dumps have not advantageous whatsoever. He took a cap dump in the Sheary trade, a trade which included a conditional draft pick to go from 4th to 3rd if Sheary did well. Any other GM says, we won't give you a conditional draft pick, but we will take this player's salary instead at the very least. All of his cap dumps have been far more advantageous for the other team instead of Buffalo. Look how Vegas built their team and all the favors they did for teams. It helped Vegas immensely.

It was apparent that Buffalo wasn't going to be competitive these first 2 (possibly 3?) years. If we're taking on these first 2 years, we should be swimming in draft picks or getting bad contracts off the books. Instead we're doing favors for other teams, and waiting out those contracts to end, and receiving less than the minimum of return on doing these teams favors.

There are a lot of valid reasons to be down on Botts. I'm one more bad, timeline-breaking move away from giving up on him myself. But like I said, I'm willing to take all the bad on the chin if he has a good offseason here and 19/20 becomes the stepping stone for a great 20/21 season with a lot of bad players leaving and a lot of fresh, young, successful talent coming in... which is what I think the plan was/is.

 

[Jame]

I do think Berglund was expected to be a productive player on the team (which he really was with Girgs and Larry)... and big coincidence, his cap hit would've cut in half in 20/21. Him quitting hurt more than helped IMO.

I think the road to 20/21 was expected to be rocky as he wanted to just keep the Sabres afloat while the kids developed properly and found success in Rochester. I just think it's been rockier than anyone expected between Housley being a dud and a lot of underachieving outside of a few players... which to be fair, is very much so on Botts for numerous reasons.

But personally, I find it hard to get overly upset that a few expectedly-rocky years have been indeed rocky. The Rochester half of that plan seems to be working... and they moved on from Housley at the right time.

Why do you think his cap hit would've cut in half in 20/21 ? That's not how it works.

Him quitting is currently the best part of the ROR trade.

 

[Jame]

The biggest problem with the ROR trade, with regards to Botts/Plan, is how we arrived here.

Botts took over ~80 point team that had some serious holes. Instead of addressing anything with regards to the roster in his first year he took a wait and see approach.

The problem with that approach was that he hired a dunce to coach the team. The predictable outcome of a 80 point roster with unaddressed holes, that also happened to be at the top of the league in man games lost.... being coached by a clown.... was a collapse to the bottom of the standings.

Botts, once again wearing the dunce cap, viewed that collapse as a failure of the roster (instead of his failure to add to the roster and hiring housley)... and began deconstructing (Kane, ROR, Lehner).

Now, we see all that talent he exited from the team having big time success... in the post season. And a year too late he fires Housley.

Botts has made an enormous mess... and if/when things improve over the long haul, it should not be forgotten how badly he f***ed up the last 2 years...

... at least we got Dahlin.

 

[Dreakon13]

Why do you think his cap hit would've cut in half in 20/21 ? That's not how it works.

Him quitting is currently the best part of the ROR trade.

This is what I was basing it off of, though I'm guessing you'll probably say that the 3.85mill cap hit is what sticks the whole way through. Which I'm realizing I may have overlooked.

Though I still think a 4mill Berglund playing the game he did with Girgs and Larry for the duration of his contract is a positive. Maybe not as a return for ROR, but in general.

 

[Jame]

This is what I was basing it off of, though I'm guessing you'll probably say that the 3.85mill cap hit is what sticks the whole way through. Which I'm realizing I may have overlooked.

Though I still think a 4mill Berglund playing the game he did with Girgs and Larry for the duration of his contract is a positive. Maybe not as a return for ROR, but in general.

yea, salary can change, cap hit remains the same.

ages 30-33 from a player like Berglund are never pretty. Him quitting was a huge win for us.

 

[Dreakon13]

Botts, once again wearing the dunce cap, viewed that collapse as a failure of the roster (instead of his failure to add to the roster and hiring housley)... and began deconstructing (Kane, ROR, Lehner).

Now, we see all that talent he exited from the team having big time success... in the post season. And a year too late he fires Housley.

I'm frustrated as anyone to see so many ex-Sabres in the playoffs, but ROR is the only big loss there IMO. I don't think Lehner cleans up his act if he's extended here... and Kane didn't really mesh with anyone. Depending on Skinner re-signing, I think you make the Kane<>Skinner swap all day long. And keeping both is a luxury I wouldn't want to spend the cap on at this point.

Just my take though.

yea, salary can change, cap hit remains the same.

ages 30-33 from a player like Berglund are never pretty. Him quitting was a huge win for us.

Fair enough.

 

[Buffaloed]

Bergeron, O’Reilly, Stone are the 2019 Selke Trophy finalists

In a first, Jason Botterill is being promoted as NHL GM of the Year by several teams, none being the one that employs him.

 

[GellMann]

I'm all-in on believing Botts has his sights set on 20/21 being the year we have our Toronto-esque "promote all the kids and watch everything click" Cinderella season (which also depends on us nailing the head coach search this time around). Another ROR trade debacle involving Risto with several more-than-one-year cap dumps and project prospects/futures coming back completely throws that timeline off... so like I said, I'd be very surprised. And frankly that's the point where I throw away my cheerleader pom poms I've been waving for Botts.

Botterill was hired in the spring of 2017. It would be utterly disgusting if his sights have been set on 2020-2021.

 

[sabremike]

The fact that the primary cheerleader in the media who conned our braindead moron ownership and GM into this total disaster writes for The Athletic is why I am not a subscriber and never will be while he's still with them.

 

[Buffaloed]

The fact that the primary cheerleader in the media who conned our braindead moron ownership and GM into this total disaster writes for The Athletic is why I am not a subscriber and never will be while he's still with them.

Are we going to have to do an intervention? Blaming the media for that is just crazy talk!

 

[Dreakon13]

Botterill was hired in the spring of 2017. It would be utterly disgusting if his sights have been set on 2020-2021.

I doubt that was the plan from the moment he was hired.

I'd say 17/18 was an evaluation year. From there, given the sorry state of the team, is where the 20/21 plan and the heightened focus on stability and development in Rochester came about. That's just me talking though.