The road to the playoffs: Who will be our opponent?

[Jaded-Fan]

Pens with a one in three chance of emerging from the Metro, a 20% chance of getting to the cup finals, and 13% chance, just behind Washington's 14% chance, of three-peating,

 

[Ogrezilla]

That whole post season Bob meltdown for Columbus narrative is overblown.

They only have gone to the playoffs three times and two of the times Bob's meltdown was against the Pens. Who have made a habit of destroying the top goalies in the league in the playoffs. Where is the post season Rinne meltdown narrative? Holtby? Lundqvist? And on and on.

Bob's only issue is shared with the rest of the top goalies in the NHL. The Pens own them when the games count. The Pens have had more trouble with some no name goalies playing the series of their lives than the name goalies for the most part.

He's been considerably worse than the other top goalies we've faced though, aside from Rinne. But it's hard to call him a bad playoff performer until he plays more teams. As of now he just hasn't played against the Pens very well. He's got an overall .902 SV% against us in his career. .910 in the regular season, and .889 in the playoffs.

But other than that, I think he's only actually started 2 playoff games vs anyone else. And 4 of his 6 playoff games played vs not-us were vs the Boston team that won the Cup. In total, he has 70 minutes of playoff ice time vs teams that didn't go on to win the Cup. And those were in his rookie year.

I don't think it's overblown at all. He was as bad as MAF's worst debacle last year. He was scoring on himself, letting up bad goals, not consistent at all. He was BRUTAL.

This is the key to me. He's not just getting killed by a good team. He's letting in really bad goals.

 

[ColePens]

That’s everyone.

@Jaded-Fan Bob against us is .889SV% 3.75 GAA

EDIT:
@Andy99 this is against us for the others

Rinne .888 SV% 2.33 GAA (6 games)
Holtby .908 SV% 2.54 GAA (13 games)
Hank .917 SV% 2.27 GAA (22 games)
Bob .889 SV% 3.75 GAA (12 games)

Wasn't Rinne in like the 700s in Pittsburgh? Lol

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Wasn't Rinne in like the 700s in Pittsburgh? Lol

No.

His goals against was N/A

 

[Will Hunting]

We have to win 2 of our next 3 games and we have home ice surely. Philly beating the Bruins is a good thing to me, as it increases the chances of us facing them in R1.

 

[Andy99]

That’s everyone.

@Jaded-Fan Bob against us is .889SV% 3.75 GAA

EDIT:
@Andy99 this is against us for the others

Rinne .888 SV% 2.33 GAA (6 games)
Holtby .908 SV% 2.54 GAA (13 games)
Hank .917 SV% 2.27 GAA (22 games)
Bob .889 SV% 3.75 GAA (12 games)

Nice! Thanks...

 

[Tom Hanks]

Wasn't Rinne in like the 700s in Pittsburgh? Lol

Yup .755 in PA.

 

[TNT87]

Thank you NHL for ending the season with a pair of back to backs against well rested opponents to end the season. After making almost half the season back to backs, more than any other team in the NHL.

We get the message. You are tired of the Oens winning cups.

But according to everyone else the NHL always favors the Penguins and blah blah blah.

 

[ncm7772]

Thank you NHL for ending the season with a pair of back to backs against well rested opponents to end the season. After making almost half the season back to backs, more than any other team in the NHL.

We get the message. You are tired of the Oens winning cups.

Pens have battled through an incredibly difficult schedule. Regardless of what happens in the playoffs, we can be proud of them for that.

Yeah, league knew what they were doing.

And to address the original question, I still think the Pens will see CBJ in the first round. IMO, home ice will be decided in their head-to-head Thursday.

 

[ncm7772]

My take is this: Do not wish for any opponent. We can beat any opponent and we can lose to any opponent. But here is how I feel we match up against each team.

- Philly:
How we beat them: I think we match up best against Philly. Their goaltending/defense would be beatable. I think the Pens would be favored. I do think overall we have better depth and would be able to attack Philly.

How they would beat us: Make it a transition game and get turnovers converted to goals. Also their powerplay may be average for NHL, but it always does well against us. Even if they aren't scoring, I feel they build momentum off it.

- Columbus:
How we beat them: Speed is what we need to beat Columbus. Once again, I think we have depth but they will play tougher hockey. We can dictate based off speed and hopefully Bob still has playoff nightmares against us.

How they beat us: Slow the game down and convert. A couple guys who can do that? I think we already know who can do that. Panarin is a Penguin killer. A guy you probably aren't thinking of is Vanek. With our defense and their inability to box out, Vanek could be a huge problem for the Pens. And bob has to be regular season bob.

- Devils:
I won't even go too far into this. Their speed and tenacity is enough to give us fits each game. They just need goaltending to be superb and I am not sure Kinkaid can keep that level of play. But there is no doubt this is the one matchup I do not want to mess with. Their speed could be big problems for the Pens.

- Capitals:
How we beat them: It's Washington vs. Pittsburgh in the playoffs. We are in their heads and I actually think we match up well against them. They don't have a strong defense and they have a weaker offense than last year. I feel we could take advantage of 5 on 5 and we just need their goaltending to play average.

How they beat us: They get good goaltending and their powerplay crushes out ****ty PK. If they win the special teams by a big margin, I feel they could get that victory against us.


For the record - i think we'd be a slight edged favorite in each of these matchups. I do not think any of the teams would take a betting line against us. But obviously betting lines don't mean ****.

Very cool post, always like to read things like this.

I mostly agree with you. Personally, I just have a bad feeling about playing CBJ. I would honestly rather play the Caps.

 

[ncm7772]

But according to everyone else the NHL always favors the Penguins and blah blah blah.

Yeah, that narrative is incredibly irritating and quite frankly, asinine.

 

[TNT87]

Yeah, that narrative is incredibly irritating and quite frankly, asinine.

Just like the refs favor the Penguins. Last time I checked this season the Pens' opponents have had more PP opportunities but hey that wouldn't suit their tiring narrative. Just like all GI calls go for the Penguins. I wish.

 

[MrBurghundy]

So... how about those playoff avatars eh?

That's the real question here.

 

[cheesedanish87]

Big win for Philly.

CBJ and Philly are tied.

Flyers also have a much easier schedule.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Big win for Philly.

CBJ and Philly are tied.

Flyers also have a much easier schedule.

Flyers have a ridiculously easy schedule to end the season. I could see them leapfrogging Columbus (or maybe the Pens, depending on how the Pens do tonight and versus Columbus).

 

[cheesedanish87]

Flyers have a ridiculously easy schedule to end the season. I could see them leapfrogging Columbus (or maybe the Pens, depending on how the Pens do tonight and versus Columbus).

Yeah, i know, but you gotta remember Philly wouldn't want to play the Pens.

They match up way better against Washington, so if it comes down to the last game and Philly can kind of control who they play they might not try and win that last game.

A couple years ago NYI lost on purpose to avoid the Pens and play the Panthers.

 

[KIRK]

My take is this: Do not wish for any opponent. We can beat any opponent and we can lose to any opponent. But here is how I feel we match up against each team.

- Philly:
How we beat them: I think we match up best against Philly. Their goaltending/defense would be beatable. I think the Pens would be favored. I do think overall we have better depth and would be able to attack Philly.

How they would beat us: Make it a transition game and get turnovers converted to goals. Also their powerplay may be average for NHL, but it always does well against us. Even if they aren't scoring, I feel they build momentum off it.

- Columbus:
How we beat them: Speed is what we need to beat Columbus. Once again, I think we have depth but they will play tougher hockey. We can dictate based off speed and hopefully Bob still has playoff nightmares against us.

How they beat us: Slow the game down and convert. A couple guys who can do that? I think we already know who can do that. Panarin is a Penguin killer. A guy you probably aren't thinking of is Vanek. With our defense and their inability to box out, Vanek could be a huge problem for the Pens. And bob has to be regular season bob.

- Devils:
I won't even go too far into this. Their speed and tenacity is enough to give us fits each game. They just need goaltending to be superb and I am not sure Kinkaid can keep that level of play. But there is no doubt this is the one matchup I do not want to mess with. Their speed could be big problems for the Pens.

- Capitals:
How we beat them: It's Washington vs. Pittsburgh in the playoffs. We are in their heads and I actually think we match up well against them. They don't have a strong defense and they have a weaker offense than last year. I feel we could take advantage of 5 on 5 and we just need their goaltending to play average.

How they beat us: They get good goaltending and their powerplay crushes out ****ty PK. If they win the special teams by a big margin, I feel they could get that victory against us.


For the record - i think we'd be a slight edged favorite in each of these matchups. I do not think any of the teams would take a betting line against us. But obviously betting lines don't mean ****.

I don't know that I agree about how Columbus should attack the Pens. Last year, they took your approach. Slow it down. Hit. Toughness. And, they were down 2-0 in the series and in game 3 before Torts decided to eschew the safe dinosaur approach and go for the safe is death approach, activated everyone, starting pressing the Pens transition D.

 

[KIRK]

Pens schedule: at Blue Jackets, Senators

Blue Jackets schedule: Red Wings, Penguins, at Predators

Flyers schedule: at Islanders, Hurricanes, Rangers

Devils schedule: Rangers, Maple Leafs, at Capitals

* I would expect the Predators to rest guys in their last game, as they're 1 point from clinching 1st in the West. I would also expect the Capitals to rest guys in their last game, as their playoff position is set right now.

* Pens hold ALL ROW tie breakers.

1. IF the Pens beat the Blue Jackets, then it's a 2/3 matchup, one would SUSPECT almost assuredly with the Flyers given the relative schedules.

2. IF the Blue Jackets beat the Pens, then it's up in the air . . . I'd say 15% chance of #2, 40% chance of #3, 40% chance of #4, 5% chance of #5.

Even if the Pens lose to the Blue Jackets, the Blue Jackets must win 3 of 4 points and the Flyers must win 5 of 6 points to finish ahead of the Pens. The reason that I'm saying there's a 5% chance the Pens finish as WC2 is because it's POSSIBLE the Pens lose to the Blue Jackets and find a way to lose to the Senators. In THAT scenario, IF the Blue Jackets earn 1 point beyond a win over the Pens, the Flyers earn 3 of 6 points, and the Devils win two of their last three, then the Pens actually would end up as WC2. Slim possibility, but not impossible.

 

[Pengwins]

Landing as WC2 is obviously worst case scenario. It will be a tough 1st round no matter which Metro team we play.

 

[KIRK]

Landing as WC2 is obviously worst case scenario. It will be a tough 1st round no matter which Metro team we play.

It will take a lot to end up there. Even IF we lose out, the Devils will need to finish up winning 2 of 3.

 

[cheesedanish87]

If you assume on Tue

CBJ beat Detroit
NJD beat NYR
Flyers beat NYI

The standings will be

Pens 96 points
CBJ 96 points
Flyers 96 points
NJD 95 points

All teams will have 2 games left.

 

[KIRK]

If you assume on Tue

CBJ beat Detroit
NJD beat NYR
Flyers beat NYI

The standings will be

Pens 96 points
CBJ 96 points
Flyers 96 points
NJD 95 points

All teams will have 2 games left.

Pens - at Columbus, Ottawa
Blue Jackets - Pittsburgh, at Nashville
Flyers - Carolina, NY Rangers
Devils - Toronto, at Washington

Pens hold ROW tiebreakers.

When I gave my predictions above, it was based on your scenario for all teams going into their respective last 2 games.

Beat Columbus, and it's almost assuredly a 2-3 matchup (UNLESS New Jersey wins out, Philly wins 3 of 4 points, AND the Pens lose to Ottawa).

Lose to Columbus, and ALL bets IMHO are off . . .

EDIT: I can't really see the Caps trying in their last games, and by the last game of the season, I anticipate the Preds won't have any reason to kill themselves, as they'll have clinched first in the conference.

 

[cheesedanish87]

Pens - at Columbus, Ottawa
Blue Jackets - Pittsburgh, at Nashville
Flyers - Carolina, NY Rangers
Devils - Toronto, at Washington

Pens hold ROW tiebreakers.

When I gave my predictions above, it was based on your scenario for all teams going into their respective last 2 games.

Beat Columbus, and it's almost assuredly a 2-3 matchup (UNLESS New Jersey wins out, Philly wins 3 of 4 points, AND the Pens lose to Ottawa).

Lose to Columbus, and ALL bets IMHO are off . . .

EDIT: I can't really see the Caps trying in their last games, and by the last game of the season, I anticipate the Preds won't have any reason to kill themselves, as they'll have clinched first in the conference.

We need one upset to happen on Tuesday, if one of those teams lose in regulation then all we would have to do to avoid the 2nd wildcard is win against the Sens.

Tuesday will be a big day.

 

[WayneSid9987]

CBJ are sneaky good now cuz:

1) It was evident last season they needed more pure skill to go with the all the gritty/sorta skilled guys they had.
Enter Panarin, Dubois and they picked up Vanek.

2)Had the skill D covered. Needed some more grit. Picked up Cole.

They'll be a much tougher out this year unless they quit on Torts.

 

[Shrimper]

Hoping that we get some good luck tomorrow and the Flyers win but CBJ don't.