The Prospects Thread XXVI

[StrictlyCommercial]

Actually looking through my notes from last year's training camp, I'm confusing Miles Liberati and Evan McEneny.

McEneny made no impression on me last year and I remember virtually nothing about him.

You are right, McEneny is kind of in the Tanev mold of D. He has some skill, but generally plays the passive defensive game. Hopefully it works at the pro level, but you never know until they play the games.

 

[MS]

Where do you get that estimate? Honestly just curious.

We know from history a mid-20s forward pick has maybe a 50% chance of making it, at best.

The vast majority of guys that make it are either in the NHL by the age Shinkaruk is now or have dynamically separated themselves at lower levels (ie. Kuznetsov in Russia).

When you take those guys out of the mix and look at the pool of mid-20s forwards who haven't distinguished themselves by this point and are middling in the AHL ... that's what you're left with. And it drops further because Shinkaruk isn't a guy who has intangibles to stick on a 3rd/4th line.

 

[topheavyhookjaw]

We know from history a mid-20s forward pick has maybe a 50% chance of making it, at best.

The vast majority of guys that make it are either in the NHL by the age Shinkaruk is now or have dynamically separated themselves at lower levels (ie. Kuznetsov in Russia).

When you take those guys out of the mix and look at the pool of mid-20s forwards who haven't distinguished themselves by this point and are middling in the AHL ... that's what you're left with. And it drops further because Shinkaruk isn't a guy who has intangibles to stick on a 3rd/4th line.

Yup, if he's gonna make it now he's going to have to come in and look great at camp, put up great numbers at the AHL level early on, and bully his way into the lineup at the first injury opportunity.

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

What are people's quantitative expextations for Shinkaruk this year? I'd say a bare minimum of 20 goals and a 0.75PPG in the AHL is what he will have to do to make me think he has a shot at the NHL.

If the season goes as we expect and we sell at the deadline, I would hope Shinkaruk will be ready to step into Vrbata's spot to end the season.

If not, he starts to enter B word territory in my eyes.

 

[MS]

What are people's quantitative expextations for Shinkaruk this year? I'd say a bare minimum of 20 goals and a 0.75PPG in the AHL is what he will have to do to make me think he has a shot at the NHL.

If the season goes as we expect and we sell at the deadline, I would hope Shinkaruk will be ready to step into Vrbata's spot to end the season.

If not, he starts to enter B word territory in my eyes.

He needs to score at a 30-40 goal pace and push the .85-1.00 points/game range.

Establish himself as a dominant, all-star level sniper at that level.

 

[Verviticus]

OHL has him at 213, elite prospects at 214. If true those are excellent.

mceneny has been 210 for like two years. he's had nhl size for as long as he's been canucks property, lol

He needs to score at a 30-40 goal pace and push the .85-1.00 points/game range.

Establish himself as a dominant, all-star level sniper at that level.

one of those. if he's a PPG as a playmaker for some reason, i'm not going to complain, and if he can put up 40 goals and 50 points, i'll deal (sadly)

 

[MS]

one of those. if he's a PPG as a playmaker for some reason, i'm not going to complain, and if he can put up 40 goals and 50 points, i'll deal (sadly)

More than the numbers, the second part of my post is the most important.

He needs to establish himself as a first-line, all-star level skill player at the AHL level next season if he's going to make it. Needs to separate himself at that level.

If he hasn't separated himself after two years in the AHL ... he isn't going to make it, barring a miracle.

 

[Proto]

We know from history a mid-20s forward pick has maybe a 50% chance of making it, at best.

The vast majority of guys that make it are either in the NHL by the age Shinkaruk is now or have dynamically separated themselves at lower levels (ie. Kuznetsov in Russia).

When you take those guys out of the mix and look at the pool of mid-20s forwards who haven't distinguished themselves by this point and are middling in the AHL ... that's what you're left with. And it drops further because Shinkaruk isn't a guy who has intangibles to stick on a 3rd/4th line.

I agree. Based on where he was picked, his likelihood of being an impact/Top 5 type forward is probably 25-30%. He had a poor year, so you have to discount that, even if it's just because the injury slowed his development (perhaps permanently). I also agree he's not likely a bottom-six forward, so that 25-30% is a good starting spot.

He's probably 15-20% at best right now. Hopefully he has a good year and that outlook starts to tilt more positively in his direction.

 

[Proto]

He needs to score at a 30-40 goal pace and push the .85-1.00 points/game range.

Establish himself as a dominant, all-star level sniper at that level.

Not sure I'd go quite this far, if only because I anticipate the Comets being an offensive blackhole next season (who is his centre?). I do think he needs to be the best offensive player on that team and "stir the drink" on the top line. If he's 25 goals and .75PPG on an putrid offensive team, my interest would be sufficiently piqued.

 

[Verviticus]

well yeah if he does that while visibly being an awesome player, i'll take it

 

[sandwichbird2023]

What are people's expectation for guance then? Points wise where does he have to be to make you think he have a chance at being a top 9 F in the NHL? What role should he play in Utica to consider a success?

 

[Balls Mahoney]

What are people's expectation for guance then? Points wise where does he have to be to make you think he have a chance at being a top 9 F in the NHL? What role should he play in Utica to consider a success?

Gaunce is complete bust in my mind. Too soft and unremarkable for a bottom six role. Not talented enough and too inconsistent for a top six role.

 

[FOurteenS inCisOr]

Gaunce is complete bust in my mind. Too soft and unremarkable for a bottom six role. Not talented enough and too inconsistent for a top six role.

You sure you're not thinking of a different Canuck forward prospect?

Your track record doesn't work in your favour...

 

[a Fool]

Gaunce is complete bust in my mind. Too soft and unremarkable for a bottom six role. Not talented enough and too inconsistent for a top six role.

I think Gaunce is looking good. Comparable 1st AHL season to Riley Sheahan. Gaunce was plugging away in a good checking role for Utica getting 29 points - most, if not all of them, at ES. His biggest problems are mobility and pace. He's never going to be a banger, but he's smart enough defensively and has good enough skills to make the NHL as a bottom 6 player if he can play his game at a faster speed. He got more responsibility from Green as the season went on, and into the playoffs.

I thought he'd have a good chance to play some NHL games if injuries hit, but with the acquisition of Prust it looks like even Kenins won't make the opening roster so who knows.

 

[Balls Mahoney]

You sure you're not thinking of a different Canuck forward prospect?

Your track record doesn't work in your favour...

You think a first round pick who scored 29 points in the AHL last year and has been the definition of mediocrity is going to accomplish anything in the NHL?

 

[The Iron Goalie]

You think a first round pick who scored 29 points in the AHL last year and has been the definition of mediocrity is going to accomplish anything in the NHL?

29 pts in a bot 6 role, while playing in your first pro season is fine. Not to mention his solid two-way game... I'm happy with what I saw from him this season.

 

[arsmaster*]

You think a first round pick who scored 29 points in the AHL last year and has been the definition of mediocrity is going to accomplish anything in the NHL?

Did you watch a single Utica game last season?

 

[Balls Mahoney]

Did you watch a single Utica game last season?

Yeah, otherwise I wouldn't be saying this. He's a slow inconsistent checking center. And he was so good last year he was getting scratched in playoff games.

Just my opinion. Although I think it's funny I get heat for overvaluing some prospects and then get heat for saying I don't see NHL potential in Gaunce or McEneny.

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

Yeah, otherwise I wouldn't be saying this. He's a slow inconsistent checking center. And he was so good last year he was getting scratched in playoff games.

Just my opinion. Although I think it's funny I get heat for overvaluing some prospects and then get heat for saying I don't see NHL potential in Gaunce or McEneny.

Gaunce was one of the best Comets after the first round. The kid has excellent defensive instincts and solid forechecking. I think he'll be an NHL regular eventually, probably limited to a bottom 6 role though.

He also played wing all of last year, not centre.

 

[Balls Mahoney]

We shall see. I respect everyone's opinions on prospects. I just don't see how a guy who scored 29 points and 9 points in 21 playoff games bottom six'ing in the AHL is going to evolve into Chris Higgins but I'd like to be wrong. Gaunce has had a lot of knocks on him since his junior days but again I'd like to be wrong on this one.

 

[docbenton]

We shall see. I respect everyone's opinions on prospects. I just don't see how a guy who scored 29 points and 9 points in 21 playoff games bottom six'ing in the AHL is going to evolve into Chris Higgins but I'd like to be wrong. Gaunce has had a lot of knocks on him since his junior days but again I'd like to be wrong on this one.

Gaunce's skating and pace have looked really great toward the end of the season so that should no longer be a knock on him.

 

[arsmaster*]

We shall see. I respect everyone's opinions on prospects. I just don't see how a guy who scored 29 points and 9 points in 21 playoff games bottom six'ing in the AHL is going to evolve into Chris Higgins but I'd like to be wrong. Gaunce has had a lot of knocks on him since his junior days but again I'd like to be wrong on this one.

First year pro. Way too early to write off. Was a key PKer (probably shouldn't have been), but he outproduced a one way offensive prospect in Shinkaruk who played large stretches on the first line with O'Reilly.

I wouldn't expect Chris Higgins, because Higgins is a damn good player, who HFCanucks has seemingly poo poo'd this year because Dorsett and Prust, but I don't think a Taylor Pyatt like career is out of the question.

I think it comes down to expectation....I feel a lot of people are going to turn on HFCanucks "it-boy" at the moment, Cole Cassels next year when he produces at a simlar rate in a similar role (albeit I think they'll try and keep him at C....at least I hope).

 

[dave babych returns]

Not sure I'd go quite this far, if only because I anticipate the Comets being an offensive blackhole next season (who is his centre?). I do think he needs to be the best offensive player on that team and "stir the drink" on the top line. If he's 25 goals and .75PPG on an putrid offensive team, my interest would be sufficiently piqued.

God, are we the only franchise whose AHL affiliate has been offensively terrible for what must be coming up on nearly a decade?

Every single forward prospect we've had in recent memory that ends up in a scoring role down there posts terrible numbers and we're left to wonder whether it's because the team is incapable of scoring goals (which it is) or because they are simply not excellent AHL players (which they often aren't).

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

God, are we the only franchise whose AHL affiliate has been offensively terrible for what must be coming up on nearly a decade?

Every single forward prospect we've had in recent memory that ends up in a scoring role down there posts terrible numbers and we're left to wonder whether it's because the team is incapable of scoring goals (which it is) or because they are simply not excellent AHL players (which they often aren't).

Evidence to date suggests most of our AHL forward prospects have not been great. Even the great coho busted.

 

[dave babych returns]

Evidence to date suggests most of our AHL forward prospects have not been great. Even the great coho busted.

I agree. It would be nice to remove the lens of "yeah but look at the godawful offense he was stuck in" from the discussion after all these years, though..