The Prospects Thread XXVI

[CanaFan]

I see I started something on Boeser.

To start with I am not taking anything away from Boeser. But in terms of most scouts, most fans and the general public it is obvious the CHL leagues are better caliber, tougher competition, thus making it harder to maintain a level of play over a full season.

I am happy as hell Boeser scored that many goals, but for validation to the general public and average fan, I wish he put up those numbers in the CHL, this is Vancouver a Canadian market where most ppl dont know the level of play in the USHL, as it has been very poor in past years. So Boeser scoring 30+ goals in the OHL or WHL would hold more weight than Scoring 30+ in the USHL.

You're not wrong in how the league's are seen but for some context, in 2013-14 McDavid played OHL and Eichel played USHL. McDavid scored 1.76 PPG and Eichel was slightly higher at 1.88.

Considering their similar pedigree it seems like the scoring equivalences might not be too far apart. While the perception may be that they are far apart, I'm not sure they really are.

Besides for some non-USHL evidence, Boeser co-led the Ivan Hlinka last year with 6 goals, more than any of the team Canada players (outside of Crouse) which had many of the top CHL draft eligibles.

Click to read more...

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

For comparison's sake the BCHL only had 9 players crack 30 goals.

The BCHL and USHL are both junior A leagues.

major junior has stiffer competition.

I'd argue that there would be stiffer competition in the USHL than the BCHL as there aren't as many players lost to the CHL as going the college route in the states is a much more popular decision for top end players.

And just another reason why stat watching and analytical, numbers based scouting can only take you so far when looking at draft eligible players because the league differences and biases can skew the results. Anyone making the Boeser's stats were put up against weaker competitition and therefore his value at the pick the Canucks got him is dimished is only looking at part of the picture. But in today's hockey fandom culture, it seems that taking a small portion of the whole picture and analyzing it to death is quite popular.

 

[CanaFan]

I'd argue that there would be stiffer competition in the USHL than the BCHL as there aren't as many players lost to the CHL as going the college route in the states is a much more popular decision for top end players.

And just another reason why stat watching and analytical, numbers based scouting can only take you so far when looking at draft eligible players because the league differences and biases can skew the results. Anyone making the Boeser's stats were put up against weaker competitition and therefore his value at the pick the Canucks got him is dimished is only looking at part of the picture. But in today's hockey fandom culture, it seems that taking a small portion of the whole picture and analyzing it to death is quite popular.

I don't think that was arsmasters point or intention but I do agree that Junior A in the U.S. is not necessarily the "secondary" league it is in Canada. The weaker quality of the BCHL (and other Junior A leagues in Canada) is mainly due to the siphoning effect of the CHL. BCHL is mainly kids that want to maintain their NCAA eligibility rather than risk it on the NHL-or-bust that is the CHL.

The USHL on the other hand is the top developmental league for pre-NCAA talent for the entire U.S. Since it doesn't have a CHL-equivalent siphoning of its best talent (well the USNTDP does but they play against other USHL teams) it remains closer to Major-Junior than to Junior A.

Just my take anyway.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

I don't think that was arsmasters point or intention but I do agree that Junior A in the U.S. is not necessarily the "secondary" league it is in Canada. The weaker quality of the BCHL (and other Junior A leagues in Canada) is mainly due to the siphoning effect of the CHL. BCHL is mainly kids that want to maintain their NCAA eligibility rather than risk it on the NHL-or-bust that is the CHL.

The USHL on the other hand is the top developmental league for pre-NCAA talent for the entire U.S. Since it doesn't have a CHL-equivalent siphoning of its best talent (well the USNTDP does but they play against other USHL teams) it remains closer to Major-Junior than to Junior A.

Just my take anyway.

The reason we're talking about this is because people are nitpicking Boeser's production and it's value because he played in the USHL instead of the CHL.

You can't really use stats to compare players who play in different leagues. There are too many variables, and even within the CHL there are debates as to how much one league is better than the others, let alone the CHL vs the USHL. Using stats to scout prospects who are all works in progress needs to be only used as part of the formula.

The CHL is the best junior league in the world but that doesn't mean the USHL and BCHL among other leagues aren't good and players coming out of there should be docked for playing there. Players should be scouted on their potential abilities not their current abilities and how they are performing against their current competition.

 

[CanaFan]

The reason we're talking about this is because people are nitpicking Boeser's production and it's value because he played in the USHL instead of the CHL.

You can't really use stats to compare players who play in different leagues. There are too many variables, and even within the CHL there are debates as to how much one league is better than the others, let alone the CHL vs the USHL. Using stats to scout prospects who are all works in progress needs to be only used as part of the formula.

The CHL is the best junior league in the world but that doesn't mean the USHL and BCHL among other leagues aren't good and players coming out of there should be docked for playing there. Players should be scouted on their potential abilities not their current abilities and how they are performing against their current competition.

I agree with your take in general but I don't totally agree that you can't use scoring rates to get a sense of the relative 'strength' of each league. Take a player like Eichel, who played USHL at 17 and McDavid who played OHL at 17 (slightly younger). Given that both scored at a similar rate and were rated roughly equivalent as prospects (until this year), it indicates that similarly skilled players will produce at similar rates in both leagues. Not an exact approach but it suggests that CHL players wouldn't necessarily walk into the USHL and score 30-50% higher off the bat.

 

[WTG]

Brock was a great pick

Here are some of his "elite" comparables.

Here is his eNHL ratings compared to the guys taken around him

 

[Bleach Clean]

Follow the Canucks' Prospects!

(age as of the beginning of the 2013-14 Regular Season)

OHL
Jared McCann (18) Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
Kyle Pettit (18) Erie Otters
Bo Horvat (19) London Knights
Miles Liberati (19) North Bay Battalion
Cole Cassels (19) Oshawa Generals
Jordan Subban (19) Belleville Bulls
Evan McEneny (20) Kingston Frontenacs

WHL
Jake Virtanen (18) Calgary Hitmen
Mackenze Stewart (18) Prince Albert Raiders
Anton Cederholm (19) Portland Winterhawks

Europe/KHL
Nikita Tryamkin (20) Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg
Anton Rodin (24) Brynas

NCAA
Thatcher Demko (18) Boston College
Ben Hutton (21) Maine
Joseph Labate (21) Wisconsin
Matt Beattie (21) Yale
Mike Williamson (21) Penn State
Patrick McNally (22) Harvard

ECHL
Dane Fox (20)
Curtis Valk (21)
Ludwig Blomstrand (21)
Joe Cannata (24) (Ontario Reign)

AHL
Hunter Shinkaruk (19)
Brendan Gaunce (20)
Nicklas Jensen (21)
Ludwig Blomstrand (21)
Mike Zalewski (22)
Alexandre Mallet (22)
Linden Vey (23)
Ronalds Kenins (23)
Alexandre Grenier (23)
Alex Friesen (23)
Darren Archibald (24)
Wacey Hamilton (24)
Carter Bancks (25)
Dustin Jeffrey (26)
Brandon DeFazio (26)
Cal O’Reilly (27)
Frank Corrado (21)
Jeremie Blain (22)
Peter Andersson (23)
Henrik Tommernes (24)
Alex Biega (24)
Ryan Stanton (25)
Bobby Sanguinetti (26)
Joacim Eriksson (24)
Jacob Markstrom (24)

S_C

---

Say goodbye to:

Unsigned:
Jordan Schroeder (24)
Yann Sauve (24)
Zac Dalpe (24)
Jeremy Welsh (26)
Benn Ferriero (27)
Mike Santorelli (28)
Pascal Pelletier (31)
Colin Stuart (32)
Kellan Lain (25)

Traded:
Kellan Tochkin (23) (traded to Carolina)
Steven Anthony (23) (traded to Florida)
Patrick Mullen (28) (traded to Ottawa)
Jeff Costello (23) (traded to Tampa Bay)
Alexandre Mallet (22)

Contract Terminated:
Zach Hamill (26)
Adam Polasek (23)

Also a Link for:

Utica Comets Contracts:
F – Patrick Kennedy (25)
D – John Negrin (25)
D – Kane Lafranchise (26)
D - Kent Huskins (35)

S_C

---

Since Canucks' Army is doing a series on all the Canuck prospects, I thought I would reboot this thread and link all the articles. Each has a wealth of information on them for those who typically do not follow prospects.

• #20 Anton Cederholm
• #19 Mike Zalewski
• #18 Evan McEneny
• #17 Nikita Tryamkin
• #16 Gustav Forsling
• #15 Henrik Tommernes
• #14 Joseph LaBate
• #13 Thatcher Demko
• #12 Dane Fox
• #11 Alex Grenier
• #10 Jordan Subban
• #9 Cole Cassels
• #8 Ben Hutton
• #7 Brendan Gaunce
• #6 Jared McCann
• #5 Nicklas Jensen
• #4 Frank Corrado
• #3 Jake Virtanen
• #2 Hunter Shinkaruk
• #1 Bo Horvat

 

[ihaveyuidonttouchme]

you really need to update your lists bleach...there are some names i just dont want to ...rather hate to see

 

[arsmaster*]

I don't think that was arsmasters point or intention but I do agree that Junior A in the U.S. is not necessarily the "secondary" league it is in Canada. The weaker quality of the BCHL (and other Junior A leagues in Canada) is mainly due to the siphoning effect of the CHL. BCHL is mainly kids that want to maintain their NCAA eligibility rather than risk it on the NHL-or-bust that is the CHL.

The USHL on the other hand is the top developmental league for pre-NCAA talent for the entire U.S. Since it doesn't have a CHL-equivalent siphoning of its best talent (well the USNTDP does but they play against other USHL teams) it remains closer to Major-Junior than to Junior A.

Just my take anyway.

The CHL doesn't have borders. The cream of the ushl is almost always on the USA u18 team.

I don't think there is stiffer competition. The very best either play on a team with the very best or barely play there.

Lots of Americans come play Canadian junior A as well.

I would say it's a lesser league and that it doensnt necessarily attract the best prospects nor is it the only option. You've got academies, high school hockey, and regional leagues.

I like the Boeser pick and like I said before I don't watch the league but I don't believe it has stiffer competition than the chl.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

you really need to update your lists bleach...there are some names i just dont want to ...rather hate to see

And that would be ages at the beginning of the "2015-16 Regular Season" not the "2013-14 Regular Season".

 

[CanaFan]

The CHL doesn't have borders. The cream of the ushl is almost always on the USA u18 team.

I don't think there is stiffer competition. The very best either play on a team with the very best or barely play there.

Lots of Americans come play Canadian junior A as well.

I would say it's a lesser league and that it doensnt necessarily attract the best prospects nor is it the only option. You've got academies, high school hockey, and regional leagues.

I like the Boeser pick and like I said before I don't watch the league but I don't believe it has stiffer competition than the chl.

No I wasn't saying USHL is stiffer competition than the CHL, but rather that USHL is probably better than other Junior A leagues like BCHL, AJHL, etc. While both are classified Junior A (below Major Junior), the dynamics of Junior A in Canada are different than the U.S. BCHL, AJHL are secondary leagues to the CHL while the USHL is the "cream of the crop". For US talent (and some Canadian too).

That was my only point, as you had compared USHL to BCHL. I think USHL is a cut above.

 

[nuckfan insk]

Have we ever drafted a goal scorer from the ushl in the first round before ?

Was his name Patrick something.......

Worst case, we turn him into a erhoff in his prime

 

[Zombotron]

Have we ever drafted a goal scorer from the ushl in the first round before ?

Was his name Patrick something.......

Worst case, we turn him into a erhoff in his prime

Where Brock Boeser and Patrick White differ is that White was primarily a high school-level player with limited USHL experience:

White played in twelve games for the Tri-City Storm of the USHL, split before and after his high school season

 

[biturbo19]

Have we ever drafted a goal scorer from the ushl in the first round before ?

Was his name Patrick something.......

Worst case, we turn him into a erhoff in his prime

This gets rolled out a lot and i presume it stems from a misunderstanding about the difference between USHL and USHS?

White played some games in the USHL (junior league) in his pre-draft season...like a dozen. But that was not the league he was truly "drafted out of". He was drafted out of the Minnesota High School system, by and large. And it was a big mistake. Boeser played a full draft year in the USHL and did extremely well there.

It really is not at all a strict comparable to Boeser's draft year.

 

[The Iron Goalie]

This gets rolled out a lot and i presume it stems from a misunderstanding about the difference between USHL and USHS?

White played some games in the USHL (junior league) in his pre-draft season...like a dozen. But that was not the league he was truly "drafted out of". He was drafted out of the Minnesota High School system, by and large. And it was a big mistake. Boeser played a full draft year in the USHL and did extremely well there.

It really is not at all a strict comparable to Boeser's draft year.

This. Nonis made an terrible pick based on a 12 good games sample size. It was a Jankowski like reach, and turned out as expected. Boeser does not fall in with these kinds of picks.

 

[BerSTUzzi]

Any expectations you guys have on Boeser in his first season? I feel like his skill set should at least put up a JT Compher type first season of 35 GP 11 G 20 A 31 Pts. Though one thing going against him is UND is a D first team and their #1 scorer only put up 36 pts in 42 games.

 

[WTG]

I'd say he hovers about PPG in the NCAA.

Probably around 22g 15a 38pts 35GP

But who knows Boeser has a ton of talent and he could explode to like ~1.5PPG.

 

[nuckfan insk]

Where Brock Boeser and Patrick White differ is that White was primarily a high school-level player with limited USHL experience:

I was joking , but........ Hopefully boeser turns out a wee bit better

 

[BassMason]

How awesome would it be if Subban made it? So silky smooth.

 

[Wisp]

How awesome would it be if Subban made it? So silky smooth.

I'm pretty confident he will.

I mean, their is always a fair chance to be wrong with prospects. I have a good feeling, however.

 

[WhiteCurse]

I'm pretty confident he will.

I mean, their is always a fair chance to be wrong with prospects. I have a good feeling, however.

Glad you do, we had better D at rookie camp not named Subban. Subban has along way togo.

 

[Wisp]

Glad you do, we had better D at rookie camp not named Subban. Subban has along way togo.

Yeah, okay, could do without the patronizing. I didn't say he was the best, I said I thought he's make it.

Edit: it's possible I misinterpreted BassMason's 'made it.' I meant eventually becoming an NHL player. He might have meant something else (like making the team outright or some such).

 

[BassMason]

Yeah, okay, could do without the patronizing. I didn't say he was the best, I said I thought he's make it.

Edit: it's possible I misinterpreted BassMason's 'made it.' I meant eventually becoming an NHL player. He might have meant something else (like making the team outright or some such).

Personally I think that if he can overcome his size deficiencies he will be a difference maker. The skill is undeniable.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Personally I think that if he can overcome his size deficiencies he will be a difference maker. The skill is undeniable.

Beating a dead horse ... but why don't they convert him to a forward .... sigh

 

[biturbo19]

Beating a dead horse ... but why don't they convert him to a forward .... sigh

Jordan Subban to forward?

Because, beating the answer to a dead horse to death...but because that's really not what his "offensive skillset" is tailored to. He's an offensive defenceman, with a skillset tailored to generating offense from the back end.

Not to mention, trying to convert a 20 year old making the huge jump to Professional hockey for the first time, to a completely different position...is a fools errand. Especially if that prospect happens to be quite dead-set on remaining a defenceman.