The Pettersson and Hughes Contract Thread

[Melvin]

I think these 5.5M comparables to Hughes are laughable. It's a self fulfilling prophecy because when Hughes gets the 7.5 he should probably be around, fans that thought 5.5 will try to use it as an example of Benning's failures.

that’s not what a self fulfilling prophecy is.

If people are backing up their figures with comps then the only reasonable counter is to give different comps and explain why your comps are better, otherwise you’re doing the exact same thing of just picking a high number so that when he comes in under that number you can lick bennings boots.

 

[strattonius]

that’s not what a self fulfilling prophecy is.

If people are backing up their figures with comps then the only reasonable counter is to give different comps and explain why your comps are better, otherwise you’re doing the exact same thing of just picking a high number so that when he comes in under that number you can lick bennings boots.

We'll just call it a cycle I guess.

I'm not licking Bennings boots I've wanted him fired for about 4 yrs now....but nice try.

Is 5.5 a reasonable price for Hughes? It's a terrible prediction especially with how the d market is - and yes I understand how rfa and ufa years work.

 

[Melvin]

We'll just call it a cycle I guess.

I'm not licking Bennings boots I've wanted him fired for about 4 yrs now....but nice try.

Is 5.5 a reasonable price for Hughes? It's a terrible prediction especially with how the d market is - and yes I understand how rfa and ufa years work.

I don’t know. The only way to know is to look at comps. On a bridge that buys no UFA years? Maybe.

we just went through this with Dickinson. One group gave their numbers backed with a list of comps and were accused of what you just said. another group pulls numbers out of their ass and says that if benning comes below their random rectal number (RRN) then benning did a great job. You tell me which is reasonable.

posters on this forum IMO are terrible at evaluating Rfa contracts and almost always think that they are good because they come in under UFA price and they don’t know how to use comparable properly. Almost every single Rfa contract gets overwhelming praise even when it’s obvious at the time that it’s way over what it should be (Hutton)

 

[strattonius]

we just went through this with Dickinson. One group gave their numbers backed with a list of comps and were accused of what you just said. another group pulls numbers out of their ass and says that if benning comes below their random rectal number (RRN) then benning did a great job. You tell me which is reasonable.

I think it has nothing to do with Benning and this forum is far too fixated on which side of the fence someone is on.

Dallas fans and lots of posters here thought Dickinson would hover around 2.75. All I know is 5.5 for Hughes is a pipe dream.

 

[canuckking1]

I think it has nothing to do with Benning and this forum is far too fixated on which side of the fence someone is on.

Dallas fans and lots of posters here thought Dickinson would hover around 2.75. All I know is 5.5 for Hughes is a pipe dream.

On a 2-3 year deal? I get if we’re talking long term he’s in the 7.5-8 range but most reports sound like both sides are heading towards a bridge deal.

 

[Melvin]

I think it has nothing to do with Benning and this forum is far too fixated on which side of the fence someone is on.

Dallas fans and lots of posters here thought Dickinson would hover around 2.75. All I know is 5.5 for Hughes is a pipe dream.

you were the one who brought him up, man.

 

[krutovsdonut]

i think hughes is going to get whatever is left after they sign pettersson and then they will haggle over how much term that buys.

$5.5m does not seem remotely realistic given how good he has been at such a young age.

 

[JAK]

Can someone please let me know whether we have enough cap space to sign them both for long terms?

Depends how much you want to pay them. We definitely have enough to sign them to league minimum for 8 years.

We'll just call it a cycle I guess.

I'm not licking Bennings boots I've wanted him fired for about 4 yrs now....but nice try.

Is 5.5 a reasonable price for Hughes? It's a terrible prediction especially with how the d market is - and yes I understand how rfa and ufa years work.

No, you don't understand what RFA bridges are then.

i think hughes is going to get whatever is left after they sign pettersson and then they will haggle over how much term that buys.

$5.5m does not seem remotely realistic given how good he has been at such a young age.

$5.5m is my high end prediction based on Hughes regression in this past year, and the continued defensive struggles. The bridge is perfectly reasonable.

Please submit a list of reasons of your views and how you came up with your number value.

 

[strattonius]

No, you don't understand what RFA bridges are then.

Oh yes I understand stand perfectly well. The concept of a player wanting as many ufa years because of how inflated those contracts are isn't hard to grasp. Rfa contracts are typically a lower number. There are rare exceptions like Matthews but as a general rule of thumb. So I know Hughes isn't and shouldn't have his contract compared to Seth Jones ; but 5.5M is the gross over exaggeration the other way.

 

[JAK]

Oh yes I understand stand perfectly well. The concept of a player wanting as many ufa years because of how inflated those contracts are isn't hard to grasp. Rfa contracts are typically a lower number. There are rare exceptions like Matthews but as a general rule of thumb. So I know Hughes isn't and shouldn't have his contract compared to Seth Jones ; but 5.5M is the gross over exaggeration the other way.

Would PK Subban's bridge be comparable? Young Offensive D. His 2 year bridge was at 4.84% of cap back then. But let's bump that up to 6.75% of todays cap, which is $5.5m

 

[strattonius]

Would PK Subban's bridge be comparable? Young Offensive D. His 2 year bridge was at 4.84% of cap back then. But let's bump that up to 6.75% of todays cap, which is $5.5m

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what Hughes signs for. Happy to be wrong if he signs around 5.5 helps the team moving forward - but if it starts with a 7 you might want to re-think your '% of CAP' theory.

 

[JAK]

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what Hughes signs for. Happy to be wrong if he signs around 5.5 helps the team moving forward - but if it starts with a 7 you might want to re-think your '% of CAP' theory.

If it starts a 7, I would be re-thinking about the penalty for arson and decide if it's worth the trouble to get us a new rink.

GM place is old, and could use more bathrooms

 

[Blue and Green]

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what Hughes signs for. Happy to be wrong if he signs around 5.5 helps the team moving forward - but if it starts with a 7 you might want to re-think your '% of CAP' theory.

So what do you expect for an AAV if Hughes signs for three years?

 

[RationalExpectations]

I think this is very optimistic. Mackinnon was a 50 point player when he signed his current contract. Maybe you refer to him saying he'll take a cut next time too (which is a bit of silly thing to say as he didn't take a pay cut last time, he just blossomed after he signed his current contract) but that cut will still mean he gets say 10 mil I think.

Also if I were a Canucks fan I'd be thrilled to see Hughes sign for less than 7.

Something's got to give.

regarding Mackinnon he took a pay cut, he was a leader from day 1, 60+ points in D+1, 50+ points in D+3/4 in a very bad COL team. You may argue he was worth 5/6m on a bridge deal but he took 6 years which is a pay cut because it gives visibility to the team over this period.

Regarding Hughes, I don t see comps justifying giving him North of 7m… but I am not as high as most Canucks fans on him.

 

[RationalExpectations]

I think these 5.5M comparables to Hughes are laughable. It's a self fulfilling prophecy because when Hughes gets the 7.5 he should probably be around, fans that thought 5.5 will try to use it as an example of Benning's failures.

Sorry but Hughes for 7.5m is the same as Roussel for 3m, Beagle for 3m, a bad idea.
Within 2 years, Boeser Horvat Hoglander are due for raises. Except if Hughes steps up defensively, he is not worth this. If he becomes Hedman, Makar sure give him north of 7.

 

[Peter10]

Would PK Subban's bridge be comparable? Young Offensive D. His 2 year bridge was at 4.84% of cap back then. But let's bump that up to 6.75% of todays cap, which is $5.5m

No, it wouldn't. When he signed that contract he was about to start his D+6 year and scored less than 0.5 PPG in his previous season.

Hughes is going into his D+4 and already scoring at a ~50% higher rate.

 

[JAK]

No, it wouldn't. When he signed that contract he was about to start his D+6 year and scored less than 0.5 PPG in his previous season.

Hughes is going into his D+4 and already scoring at a ~50% higher rate.

D+ argument really only works when discussing players that have not made the league IMO. And scoring is higher league wide compared to when Subban signed.

Also, Subban signed the contract mid season.

 

[Peter10]

D+ argument really only works when discussing players that have not made the league IMO. And scoring is higher league wide compared to when Subban signed.

Also, Subban signed the contract mid season.

He signed it about 2 weeks into the shortened season.

And D+ seasons matter. Hughes scored .75 ppg in his rookie year. Subban didn't even come close to that 3 years later in his career.

League wide scoring went up by roughly 10% only, so that isn't much of an argument either.

I am not saying Hughes deserves some outlandish contract, just that the Subban bridge deal is a very poor comparison.

 

[strattonius]

Sorry but Hughes for 7.5m is the same as Roussel for 3m, Beagle for 3m, a bad idea.
Within 2 years, Boeser Horvat Hoglander are due for raises. Except if Hughes steps up defensively, he is not worth this. If he becomes Hedman, Makar sure give him north of 7.

No, it's really not. The fact that you group Hughes with Beagle and Roussel shows me you have no rationality on this player.

And no kidding Makar and Hedman will get north of 7 - those might be the 2 best dmen in the league. Is that your expectation if Hughes is making over 7?

 

[JAK]

He signed it about 2 weeks into the shortened season.

And D+ seasons matter. Hughes scored .75 ppg in his rookie year. Subban didn't even come close to that 3 years later in his career.

League wide scoring went up by roughly 10% only, so that isn't much of an argument either.

I am not saying Hughes deserves some outlandish contract, just that the Subban bridge deal is a very poor comparison.

NHL Stats, History, Scores, & Records | Hockey-Reference.com

PK also played PK almost as much as he did to PP.

QH on the other hand, does not play PK.

It isn't all about offense. PK also had more hits, blocked shots, and take aways. And if +/-matters to you, PK was also better.

I was already giving benefit to the doubt on age and crap, and even adding the escrow increase over the next few years to give the $5.5m deal.

If I was GM I would be throwing all these numbers on the table, and ask the agent to justify me how to give Quinn more than $4m, but I'm giving $5.5m because I believe in Quin .

 

[Melvin]

Hughes is very difficult to assess because there aren't any great comparables. Nobody has put up the kind of numbers he has without being a franchise #1 Norris contender. Comparing him to Krug, Barrie, etc. is unfair because he has out-produced those guys, but right now he is closer to those players than he is to Makar.

I would honestly be fine with a 1 year deal for now until we have a better read on him.

 

[Peter10]

NHL Stats, History, Scores, & Records | Hockey-Reference.com

PK also played PK almost as much as he did to PP.

QH on the other hand, does not play PK.

It isn't all about offense. PK also had more hits, blocked shots, and take aways. And if +/-matters to you, PK was also better.

I was already giving benefit to the doubt on age and crap, and even adding the escrow increase over the next few years to give the $5.5m deal.

If I was GM I would be throwing all these numbers on the table, and ask the agent to justify me how to give Quinn more than $4m, but I'm giving $5.5m because I believe in Quin .

Again, my sole point was that Subban was a bad comparison. As Melvin said, you will have a tough time to find some that fits. Usually production is used as comparison and then you go either up and down depending on defense abilities and other stuff. So with Hughes you d probably start high in your calculation and the subtract for his shortcomings. If I had to guess its probably around 18m over 3, though I think he should get a bit less.

 

[JAK]

If I had to guess its probably around 18m over 3, though I think he should get a bit less.

I've settled on $5.5m x 3 myself as my prediction.

But I wouldn't be surprised if it hits $6m.

 

[RationalExpectations]

No, it's really not. The fact that you group Hughes with Beagle and Roussel shows me you have no rationality on this player.

And no kidding Makar and Hedman will get north of 7 - those might be the 2 best dmen in the league. Is that your expectation if Hughes is making over 7?

I am not comparing Hughes and Beagle or grouping them together for that matter.

Let us look at Dmen making north of 7m:
Vlasic, Spurgeon, Trouba : unanimous bad contract. I hope Ekman can turn it around

Ekblad, Letang, Weber, Hedman, Carlson, Burns, Chabot, Heiskanen, Pietrangelo, Makar are all better than Hughes or were when contract was signed.

 

[HockeyNightInAsia]

I say sign both to long-term if possible. But it is unrealistic given we only have 16.3 - 16.4 million (16.6 minus the 0.25 or so for keeping Rathbone + Podkolzin in the bigs)

This is gonna be a bit out in left field here, but what if we sign QH 8 years but EP only 5 years (a la Matthews / Aho)? Would everyone be quite mad at the risk of losing EP early? It's not what I want, but just smells like a possibility to me.