Blue Jays Discussion: The other trade deadline passeth. You know, the complicated one. (Mod warning post #1)

[TheMadHatTrick]

Ugh

Well to be fair depth does win...provided that's depth of talent, and not just depth of bodies.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

Well to be fair depth does win...provided that's depth of talent, and not just depth of bodies.

there is depth of talent. I see multiple waves of talent on the horizon over the next couple of years and beyond.

 

[zeke]

name the ones with a real chance of being impact mlb starters.

 

[trellaine201]

Ugh

Atkins and Shapiro are as phoney as a $2bill at least I could trust AA as he was much more honest.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

name the ones with a real chance of being impact mlb starters.

Pearson, Pardinho, and maybe Kloffenstein. Stroman and Sanchez returning to previous form would obviously help immensely. Borucki, SRF, Zeuch, etc should help fill out the middle/back end of the rotation.

Good chance we go out and add a starter or two when the time is right with the extra/blocked positional talent.

 

[hoc123]

name the ones with a real chance of being impact mlb starters.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr
Bo Bichette
Danny Jansen
Sean Reid Foley
Nate Pearson
Jordan Groshans
Eric Pardinho
Kevin Smith
Hector Perez
Anthony Alford
Chavez Young

That's not including players who are too far away to determine what their true potential is "Adam Kloffenstein, Miguel Hiraldo, Orelvis Martinez, ext.), or players who at the moment, don't seem to have impact starter potential but I could see overachieving "Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Cavan Biggio, ext."

Really at this point you've just jumped the shark. While I didn't really agree with your points about management, you were still interesting, and I always liked your analysis about prospects. Now, however, you just descended into having such a blind rage for this management that you can't see how having, according to BA, the third best prospect pool in the majors won't result in a good amount of talent. Hell a month or two ago you were saying the Jays prospect pool depth was underrated.

 

[metafour]

name the ones with a real chance of being impact mlb starters.

You realize that the majority of the Cleveland playoff core was built off of supposedly "fringe" acquisitions that actually turned out to be great scouting decisions, right? Billy McKinney has been worth nearly twice as many wins as Happ since being acquired, and he was the "guy who couldn't hit AAA pitching" that no one wanted in that deal LOL.

"Having a chance of being impact starters" is a throwaway comment. Neither Bautista nor Encarnacion had much chance, until one day they were. Donaldson actually falls in the same category as well, being a failed catching prospect who didn't establish anything until he was 26/27.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

there is depth of talent. I see multiple waves of talent on the horizon over the next couple of years and beyond.

That's not the argument. The argument is whether the acquired pieces fall into that subgroup. We didn't trade for Groshans, and Kevin Smith, and Nate Pearson if that's the depth you're referring to.

 

[Eyedea]

That's not the argument. The argument is whether the acquired pieces fall into that subgroup. We didn't trade for Groshans, and Kevin Smith, and Nate Pearson if that's the depth you're referring to.

To be fair, the latter was acquired with the EE compensation pick so you could make that argument.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

You realize that the majority of the Cleveland playoff core was built off of supposedly "fringe" acquisitions that actually turned out to be great scouting decisions, right?

This is true. Carassco, Kluber, Ramirez, Brantley, Clevinger, Gomes we're all fringe-ish guys. Let's hope we get as lucky.

Keep in mind though that Cleveland is playing in the central which is a different animal. They'd be third in the East right now, and have the benefit of beating up on some pretty shit teams (losing record against the East in 2016, 2018).

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

To be fair, the latter was acquired with the EE compensation pick so you could make that argument.

Wait, what? My bad, I'm not arguing whether they acquired them. I'm talking strictly about trades. We've been great in the draft since Parker was fired. Only pick I haven't liked was Warmoth. It's Atkins trading acumen and his ability to negotiate that hasn't inspired me with confidence yet, but it's not a large sample so we'll see going forward.

 

[phillipmike]

Wait, what? I'm not arguing whether they acquired them. I'm talking strictly about trades. We've been great in the draft since Parker was fired. Only pick I haven't liked was Warmoth. It's Atkins trading acumen and his ability to negotiate that hasn't inspired me with confidence yet, but it's not a large sample so we'll see going forward.

In a buyers market not many of your selling trades look good immediately.

Most buying trades do; Liriano, Grilli, Diaz, Grichuk, and Gaviglio. Solarte looked ok at the time but his overall numbers dont reflect his underlying. Probably the only real "miss" in the last 2 off-seasons.

Even some of the selling trades from last year look good in a short period; Hernandez, and Pannone/Taylor. Give it another year and you might see another 1-2 from the 2018 sell off.

 

[zeke]

You realize that the majority of the Cleveland playoff core was built off of supposedly "fringe" acquisitions that actually turned out to be great scouting decisions, right? Billy McKinney has been worth nearly twice as many wins as Happ since being acquired, and he was the "guy who couldn't hit AAA pitching" that no one wanted in that deal LOL.

"Having a chance of being impact starters" is a throwaway comment. Neither Bautista nor Encarnacion had much chance, until one day they were. Donaldson actually falls in the same category as well, being a failed catching prospect who didn't establish anything until he was 26/27.

apologize.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

That's not the argument. The argument is whether the acquired pieces fall into that subgroup. We didn't trade for Groshans, and Kevin Smith, and Nate Pearson if that's the depth you're referring to.

high impact prospects are being guarded more than ever right now. The success of guys like Torres, Soto, Acuna, etc has pretty much killed the notion that talented 17/18 year olds in low A ball are 4 or 5 years away from contributing and thus tradable inventory. Throw in the success over the past while of teams building around young controllable players and it only makes things more difficult because everyone is trying to do the same thing.

Unless you have a young controllable asset it's becoming nearly impossible to nab high upside tools in a deal. Best you can hope for is to find some solid prospects that might pop with a few adjustments and some luck.

 

[Amadeus]

Atkins and Shapiro are as phoney as a $2bill at least I could trust AA as he was much more honest.

I don't know how they have given that impression. These two get so much heat but in reality if you compare Toronto's talent replenishing with two other recently competitive teams who are now rebuilding, I think we're in very good hands.

Vladdy was signed in AA's regime, sure but this regime has done a great job of adding young talent as well. In the end, it's a process but I feel our rebuild won't really be a long one with the young talent we have.

 

[Eyedea]

Wait, what? My bad, I'm not arguing whether they acquired them. I'm talking strictly about trades. We've been great in the draft since Parker was fired. Only pick I haven't liked was Warmoth. It's Atkins trading acumen and his ability to negotiate that hasn't inspired me with confidence yet, but it's not a large sample so we'll see going forward.

I don't know, his ability to negotiate seems okay since he was able to move a PR nightmare for a comparable (but struggling) major league talent and legitimate prospects. And before I have Zeke climbing on my back, yes we all know Giles is 5 years older. Womp womp. I also think a lot of us get marred with the whole idea of rebuilding, and believe major league talent should be sold off for lottery tickets. Nowadays it looks as if a lot of GMs are holding off on moving those pieces for rentals, and so we're left targeting the controllable major league guys, which on the surface looks meh because they aren't featured on top 30s anymore or lost some shine because of poor, small sample performances.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

.
Unless you have a young controllable asset it's becoming nearly impossible to nab high upside tools in a deal. Best you can hope for is to find some solid prospects that might pop with a few adjustments and some luck.

It may be the case but I don't think we can conclude that based on just one deadline that was clearly a buyers market though (especially with the Orioles terrible management just killing value left and right).

Last year Darvish got Calhoun, Garcia got Ynoa, Frazier + Robertson got Rutherford + Clarkin, Doolittle got Luzardo and Treinan, Tony Watson got Oneil Cruz, Wilson got Candelario + Parades, Liriano got Hernandez.

Not necessarily top prospects with the exception of a few, but guys with high upside potential who could grow into top prospects. Lotto tickets basically.

Also, a controllable but underperforming guy like Archer got a huge haul from the same team that just got a modest haul for an arguably better pitcher (Cole).

I think some teams are just better able to extract extra value for their assets or pay less for other's assets.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I don't know how they have given that impression. These two get so much heat but in reality if you compare Toronto's talent replenishing with two other recently competitive teams who are now rebuilding, I think we're in very good hands.

Vladdy was signed in AA's regime, sure but this regime has done a great job of adding young talent as well. In the end, it's a process but I feel our rebuild won't really be a long one with the young talent we have.

The best thing this management has done is fire Brian Parker. I appreciate that he picked Bichette, but he had some garbage drafts that didn't help in stocking the cupboards.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

On another note:

Groshans 3/4 1hr 3rbi 1bb
Kirk 2/4 1hr 2rbi 1bb

 

[Apotheosis]

Rebuild is on my friends. They know the pieces they will build around. A draft or two while integrating Bo, Vlad, Pearson etc and this team will be in the running again.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Conflicted Donaldson determined to make most of Indians opportunity - Sportsnet.ca

He wanted to stay for years to come and made that clear in the off-season before he embarked in a season of disappointment for both self and team, the outcome sending each on divergent paths and a polarizing split.

"I’ve told you where I was at from the beginning, I felt like being a cornerstone part of that organization for the last four years, that’s where I called home and I wanted to be there," Donaldson said Sunday in an emotional interview with Sportsnet and The Athletic. "The fact of the matter is as a player, we can only control what we can control. I’m not authorizing decisions. What I can control is after a decision is made, turning it into a positive and trying to do the best that I can to turn the situation into a positive one

 

[canucksfan]

On another note:

Groshans 3/4 1hr 3rbi 1bb
Kirk 2/4 1hr 2rbi 1bb

Too bad they lost. Out of the playoffs now. Groshans started slow in Bluefield but really did well near the end. Could see him starting in Lansing next year.

Vancouver didn’t make the playoffs.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

Too bad they lost. Out of the playoffs now. Groshans started slow in Bluefield but really did well near the end. Could see him starting in Lansing next year.

Vancouver didn’t make the playoffs.

Groshans, Pardinho, Stevenson, Lopez, Kirk, Lantigua, Moreno/Danner, Abbadessa, Conine, Contreras, Winckowski, etc should all be part of that Lansing team next season. Some of these guys will eventually form a wave that hits the majors in 2-3 years just as we are about ready to contend.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Is Panone better as a swingman going forward or strictly a reliever? His above average curve could make him deadly to lefties and his fastball should play up in short bursts.

On another note, what do you guys think of a challenge trade involving Sanchez for a similar type player (maybe a different position)?

 

[Skin Tape Session]

Corbin would be a very intriguing pitching target in free agency! Younger age for free agency with excellent numbers this year. 3.06 ERA supported by a 31.1% K rate and 6% walk rate. Elite 15.1% Swinging-strike rate, 2.36 FIP, 2.60 xFIP, 2.86 SIERA. Initial peripherals look very good!

Corbin has dominated right-handed hitters to the tune of .205/.252/.305 with a .243 wOBA against and a 31.1 K% and 5.2 BB% this year.
Slider is a money pitch: ridiculous 29% swinging-strike rate, 49.8% O-Swing, 26.2 Zone% which has led to a crazy .139/.185/.229 line against it for a 21 wRC+.

Corbin has also learned how to pitch with "Effective Velocity" which y'all should read about, but it simplifies to this:

A hitter is always trying to get the barrel of the bat to the ball. In order to do that on an inside pitch, he has to be quicker with his reaction. To do so with an outside pitch, he has to sit back and let the ball get deeper. So even though the pitches could have the same velocity out of the pitcher’s hand, “effectively” the pitches are sped up or slowed down depending on their location. This allows pitchers to create a perceived range of velocities to mess with the timing of a hitter by adding and subtracting with a single pitch.

If you check out Corbin's heat maps, you can see that he's really learned how to use this concept effectively which has allowed him to dominate despite declining velocity earlier in the year. The drop in velocity may also make him a cheaper free agent than his numbers would indicate making him a potential bargain. He should be a hot commodity but would love to see the Jays in on him!

Other free agent pitchers of interest imo are: Nathan Eovaldi, Derek Holland, and Trevor Cahill.

And the other frontoffices know this and will all make offers, the only way jays are getting any free agents is if they dont have other offers.