The Oilers, Jets, Jacob Trouba and 2016 Entry Draft

[MardyBum]

I'd do Trouba + Chicago's first + our second or a decent prospect for 1stOA. Probably not enough to get it done though.

I'm not trading Trouba + our 1st for Matthews, i'd rather just keep Trouba and draft Dubois or Chychrun or someone like that.

 

[cbcwpg]

Trouba for Edmonton's 1st pick this year, regardless of them winning the lottery.... Hmmmm. Would definitely consider that.

 

[Derfel*]

How about Trouba <---> 1st round pick <---> Hamonic?

 

[almostawake]

IMO you're overrating Matthews.

We have no idea how good he's going to be. There's a chance he peaks as a low-end #1C/excellent #2C, in which case acquiring him for Trouba and a top five pick is a loss for the Jets.

A pretty straight forward comparable for Matthews exists in Seguin's 12-13 season in the NLA. Seguin at that time was 20 y/o and coming off a 67 point in the NHL.

I've seen both play in person in the NLA and also a fair bit on TV. IMO Matthews is only slightly behind 12-13 Seguin in terms of offensive ability and he's significantly better defensively.

Off-ice everything that has been said about Matthews seems to indicate he is a clear cut above Seguin in that regard too. Of course there is huge incentive to keep things under wraps in a guy's draft year, but Matthews has been playing with veterans in the NLA and they're far more willing to say unflattering things publicly than, say, a CHL organization.

There is risk in any trade, but between Matthews and Trouba, I'd say there is a better chance that Trouba tops out at what is now than Matthews topping out as anything less than a legitimate 1st line center.

In any case, each team has their own opinion of Matthews, but I'd be shocked if there weren't at least 2 or 3 that feel Matthews has a high probability of being a franchise center and would make offers accordingly.

Matthews isn't going to be McDavid. But there is a high probability he'll be as good as Seguin, and right now is as good a prospect as Eichel IMO.

Personally, I wouldn't hesitate to move Trouba and a pick 4th or later in this draft for Matthews.

 

[10Ducky10]

Trouba + Hutchinson for Matthews + RNH. Deal done.

Not enough from the Jets.
Jets add Pavelec and Stuart.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

@almostawake, I haven't watched Matthews beyond the WJC, you clearly have. I'm a bit hesitant to take any meaning from Seguin's numbers in the lockout year (just playing to stay in shape and make some extra money) versus Matthews in his draft year.

As I said earlier, Trouba + Jets 1st isn't going to be a win unless Matthews is a bona fide top 15 C in the NHL throughout his prime.

 

[GJF]

I think Matthews is a good bet to become a franchise center. Maybe I'm wrong, sure. I personally believe he will be.

 

[Georgetown Al*]

FYI

This was just posted on the Crude site:



Quote:


Originally Posted by Frank the Tank View Post

With the expansion draft rules leaked that imply player with 3 years or less pro experience being exempt from the process, I would argue that the value of the Oilers draft pick increases significantly. The pick represents a top-tier player that is expansion draft exempt - that is a valuable asset and Trouba represents a player that would need to be protected.

exactly... i used to be on the "trade the pick no matter what" bandwagon, but with the expansion draft details coming out, i am firmly back in the "keep the pick, trade an existing player" group... the pick just holds SOOO much more value now

 

[almostawake]

@almostawake, I haven't watched Matthews beyond the WJC, you clearly have. I'm a bit hesitant to take any meaning from Seguin's numbers in the lockout year (just playing to stay in shape and make some extra money) versus Matthews in his draft year.

As I said earlier, Trouba + Jets 1st isn't going to be a win unless Matthews is a bona fide top 15 C in the NHL throughout his prime.

Well, to be fair, the bolded also describes Seguin's time in Boston.

Regarding numbers comparisons. Matthews' numbers are more/less as good as any of the NHLers that have come over to the NLA in the last two lockouts. Tavares' were better last lockout and Heatley put up big numbers in 04-05. Matthews' numbers are also notably better than a lot of the guys that came over though, Kane, Thornton, etc.

IMO the gap between Matthews and Laine/Puljujarvi is huge. Matthews finished 10th in the NLA in scoring despite missing almost 30% of the games. He finished second in MVP voting. For comparison, Laine and Puljujarvi finished 37th and 50th respectively in Liiga and 5th and 6th on their teams, respectively. And the NLA is a significantly stronger league, at least in terms of the top end of the rosters.

Never having played an NHL game, Matthews probably has a higher probability of being a top 15 center in the league than Trouba does of being a 10-20 defenceman.

The truth is, Matthews is going to be selected to the US WHC team and regardless of the numbers he puts up, if he can keep up with the level of the game, that will likely prevent whatever team holding the #1 OA from considering a trade.

 

[BrianFromAIH]

OR. We could keep Trouba. Trade Myers instead. Postma is much cheaper and has pretty similar possession numbers. (Albeit with a much smaller sample size)

 

[Georgetown Al*]

My expectations for the draft is that Chevy tops and does a better deal than what he did against Buffalo.

A guy can dream! Its not taxable yet!

 

[Yukon Joe]

As per the article linked here again:

http://thehockeywriters.com/the-oile...6-entry-draft/

Trouba Is Exactly What The Oilers Need

Obviously, from an Oilers standpoint, the organization would not move the pick if it were to turn out to be a top three selection but that would likely change if they slot somewhere else in the final pecking order. If Winnipeg were able to grab Hamonic out of New York without parting with their own first rounder and then flip Trouba to Edmonton, the Jets would potentially be adding two major pieces to their organization for the future, while still maintaining a solid lineup for the upcoming season. Like it or not, it would be something worth visiting.

Here's my question - if the Jets were able to trade for Hamonic without trading Trouba, why wouldn't we just keep Hamonic and Trouba?

I mean who wouldn't want to see

Enstrom - Buff
Hamonic-Trouba
Morrissey/Chiarot-Myers

 

[Stream*]

Obvious with the Oilers having multiple bad years, and the Jets have only this one, the Oiler need to shake things up more than the Jets do, so if we are giving up one of our best young prospects (Trouba) they should too. McDavid for Trouba. Otherwise the author is a clown.

 

[Hobby Bull]

The Jets would have to add something significant. I'd guess it would take Trouba plus one of:
1. our first round pick
2. The Chicago 1st round and a 2nd round pick
3. A player like Little

It would be insane to add, and ill advised to do this straight up.

This is not Eichel or McDavid. High picks can bust.

If it was first overall, I still wouldn't do it, and I think the Leafs will have that pick.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I wouldn't do Trouba and our own 1st alone. The Jets may have to add a little, but I don't agree that we'd have to massively add to Trouba in this situation.

The add would not be 'a little'. It would have to be quite substantial even considering that Edm would be a motivated trade partner. For one thing it would have to be the best offer they get.

I don't like Trouba + our own 1st either. I would look to our prospect pool or our roster and try to find something they would like that I would consider more expendable. Maybe Trouba + Pardy +. Oh, uhhhm, something else then.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think so. We're talking Matthews here. There are other teams in the league with a very good young defenseman. As soon as the word about #1 overall getting traded for a top pairing projected defenseman would be out, the bidding war would begin and there would be better offers than "only" Trouba and a top 10 pick. It's unrealistic to think about a trade like that in that small of a frame. Take Carolina for example. I'm pretty sure they'd pay Hanifin, 1st, 2nd, two good prospects for Matthews. And they should IMO.

If we win the lottery I do that deal with Carolina! I agree with your point though. There would be at least one 'crazy high' offer and several strong overpays. I think the bidding would go beyond what I would be willing to pay.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How about Trouba <---> 1st round pick <---> Hamonic?

What are you suggesting there Derf? Trouba + our 1st for Hamonic + NYI 1st? ick! Hamonic + NYI 1st for Trouba I might think about for a minute before saying no.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

FYI

This was just posted on the Crude site:



Quote:


Originally Posted by Frank the Tank View Post

With the expansion draft rules leaked that imply player with 3 years or less pro experience being exempt from the process, I would argue that the value of the Oilers draft pick increases significantly. The pick represents a top-tier player that is expansion draft exempt - that is a valuable asset and Trouba represents a player that would need to be protected.

exactly... i used to be on the "trade the pick no matter what" bandwagon, but with the expansion draft details coming out, i am firmly back in the "keep the pick, trade an existing player" group... the pick just holds SOOO much more value now

At max the change in his value can only be what his value was before + the value of the player you would lose to the draft. Each team loses no more than 1. So if you traded an exempt player for 1 you have to protect and you then lose player x instead of losing player y the additional value of Mathews is only the difference between x and y. So I think you are overstating that effect. Trade or no trade you have to expose players meeting the requirements. It is a consoderation but it is not huge.

 

[Derfel*]

What are you suggesting there Derf? Trouba + our 1st for Hamonic + NYI 1st? ick! Hamonic + NYI 1st for Trouba I might think about for a minute before saying no.

No - Trouba (plus one, maybe) for Edmonton's first round pick, and then that first round pick for Hamonic.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Here's my question - if the Jets were able to trade for Hamonic without trading Trouba, why wouldn't we just keep Hamonic and Trouba?

I mean who wouldn't want to see

Enstrom - Buff
Hamonic-Trouba
Morrissey/Chiarot-Myers

No doubt that would be great but if we could have that and use Trouba as the key piece to get Mathews I'd like that even better.

There are 2 things wrong with that scenario though. Snow is not giving us Hamonic unless we overpay badly. And Edmonton is not giving us Mathews unless we overpay badly.

Its a nice daydream though. Our best chance of getting Mathews is lottery luck.

 

[Potrzebie]

The author lost me at this point:

With the trio of Dustin Byfuglien, Tobias Enstrom and Tyler Myers already signed to multi-year deals and the Jets not exactly having the deepest of pockets when it comes to payroll, adding another defenceman with a cap hit in the neighbourhood of $5 million could be a little rich for their liking.

 

[Jetsetter]

D play more minutes than forwards. Trouba is a top 2 d-man now and projects out to be a #1 D. Matthews hasn't played a game in the NHL yet. He's no McDavid. Quite honestly I'd keep Trouba if I was offer Matthews.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

D play more minutes than forwards. Trouba is a top 2 d-man now and projects out to be a #1 D. Matthews hasn't played a game in the NHL yet. He's no McDavid. Quite honestly I'd keep Trouba if I was offer Matthews.

No chance would I say no that. Matthews is very likely a franchise C. I'd trade Trouba plus more in a heartbeat.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

The author lost me at this point:

With the trio of Dustin Byfuglien, Tobias Enstrom and Tyler Myers already signed to multi-year deals and the Jets not exactly having the deepest of pockets when it comes to payroll, adding another defenceman with a cap hit in the neighbourhood of $5 million could be a little rich for their liking.

The Jets are 28th out of 30 for payroll, the article is dead on. Not that we couldn't spend, but we definitely do not at this point.

http://www.nhlpa.com/the-players/team-compensation

 

[ulf]

Jets need to keep what few players they have left who are remotely tough. Trouba is one of these.

This