The Official Tank Thread III

[Retire91]

I wholeheartedly agree.

To be clear the post I was responding to was commenting on how the Oilers long failed rebuild wasn't an outlier. I think the Oilers rebuild was in no way average. It was badly mismanaged for years.

Totally agree with that, pointing to the oilers as a reason not to rebuild is just as old stale and tired as boston as a reason to rebuild on the fly. Both instances are outliers where the perfect storms lead the teams to their destiny.

The wings are a good organization and if they would commit to a rebuild they would be successful. For whatever reason they are just not commiting. Oh well if they are not going to rebuild in the face of this Avalanche of evidence I guess its time to capitulate and get an Abdelkader jersey. Should I get the C on it?

Oh but anyway wasn't disagreeing with you in any way. Just randomly quoted you I think.

In that same vein, sure, TML hasn't won anything yet. But look at their team. Look at their management and their coach. They're stocked with young, elite talent. They've got great advanced states. They've got an incredibly bright future. They're trending way up. Yes, that makes them relevant. I doubt there's a single coach or analyst around the league who would trade the Leaf's situation for the Wing's. I bet 99.9% (always a contrarian or two) would say the Leafs are 100x more relevant than the Wings right now and for the next few years as we continue to bottom feed with our abysmal roster and the Leafs continue to climb.

I know its really fatiguing constantly hearing, 'oh you want to be team X who hasn't even made the playoffs in X years'. Umm.........when that roster is stocked with up and coming elite talent? Then yes becasue that is 'ALL' that matters. I don't give a flying fart about what a team has done over the last 10 years or how Boston did it or look at the Oilers suck. The wings 'NEED' McDavid, Matthews, Hedmann, ETC. Period, end of discussion, end of thread what ever. There is no garuntee McDavid wins a cup or Matthews wins a cup but what is a guarantee is a team that doesn't have elite talent will not win the cup. The wings do not have elite talent, elite talent comes from the draft, you are more likely to get elite talent the higher you draft. I really feel like this is sesame street level logic. Is it really that hard to understand?

Besides even if the team will never win a cup does franchise winger Justin Abdelkater really excite you to go see a game? I would much rather see McDavid personally.

 

[Red Stanley]

He still had Lidstrom, this team has no Lidstrom or Datsyuk or prime Zetterberg. It's not even close to the same thing.



He has no track record for this.

Yes, he transitioned from Yzerman, Fedorov, Shanahan, Murphy, Fetisov, etc. to Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Rafalski, Stuart. Lidstrom, Holmstrom and Osgood were the 3 major overlaps. Looks like a pretty major transition on the fly. Nobody is arguing the current team will accomplish anything like that. Holland's track record is under constant attack, which is pretty hilarious if objectivity is a consideration. But, no, he has no track record of ever missing the playoffs.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Yes, he transitioned from Yzerman, Fedorov, Shanahan, Murphy, Fetisov, etc. to Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Rafalski, Stuart. Lidstrom, Holmstrom and Osgood were the 3 major overlaps. Looks like a pretty major transition on the fly. Nobody is arguing the current team will accomplish anything like that. Holland's track record is under constant attack, which is pretty hilarious if objectivity is a consideration. But, no, he has no track record of ever missing the playoffs.

Right. But that transition was built around having Datsyuk and Zetterberg and Lidstrom. So he had two franchise centers and one of the top 5 d-men to ever play the game. That's a tremendous core to build around, even under the cap.

Currently his #1 center will be 37 years old next season and the blueline is in shambles. So what's his plan? Expect to find another Datsyuk and Zetterberg deep in the draft while continuing to be a playoff bubble team? And also find or acquire a #1 Dman?

 

[Red Stanley]

It seems so weird to be you, where you can never extrapolate into the future and can only judge what has already happened. I imagine that you are unable to plan for anything because who knows what could possibly happen. Everything is equally likely. You're as likely to be caught in a sharknado as you are to skin your knee or stub your toe tomorrow. How can one know?

Or. Now stay with me here...

We can make reasonable guesses as to future outcomes based on patterns and history. That's pretty much what makes humans so dominant on this planet. Foresight, forethinking.

For example it didn't take a genius to realize that Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on the same team would make them damn competitive for the cup. It didn't take a genius to realize Kane/Toews/Keith would be cup contenders. I wonder if you'd have been at the draft a couple years ago at Edmonton's table saying "BUT WHAT HAS CONNOR DONE TO PROVE HE'S RELEVANT AT THE NHL LEVEL? HE'S NEVER EVEN PLAYED A SINGLE NHL GAME. HE HASN'T ACCOMPLISHED ANYTHING." I don't think it takes a genius to recognize Connor McDavid is a special talent and could instantly make the Oilers a far better team, which he has.

In that same vein, sure, TML hasn't won anything yet. But look at their team. Look at their management and their coach. They're stocked with young, elite talent. They've got great advanced states. They've got an incredibly bright future. They're trending way up. Yes, that makes them relevant. I doubt there's a single coach or analyst around the league who would trade the Leaf's situation for the Wing's. I bet 99.9% (always a contrarian or two) would say the Leafs are 100x more relevant than the Wings right now and for the next few years as we continue to bottom feed with our abysmal roster and the Leafs continue to climb.

Bolded the only relevant part in your lengthy rant. Do try to keep it shorter and to the point next time, please. Thanks.

 

[Heaton]

Right. But that transition was built around having Datsyuk and Zetterberg and Lidstrom. So he had two franchise centers and one of the top 5 d-men to ever play the game. That's a tremendous core to build around, even under the cap.

Currently his #1 center will be 37 years old next season and the blueline is in shambles. So what's his plan? Expect to find another Datsyuk and Zetterberg deep in the draft while continuing to be a playoff bubble team? And also find or acquire a #1 Dman?

It's like the difference of starting a business with $1 and starting a business with $10,000,000. It's apples and oranges.

 

[Red Stanley]

Right. But that transition was built around having Datsyuk and Zetterberg and Lidstrom. So he had two franchise centers and one of the top 5 d-men to ever play the game. That's a tremendous core to build around, even under the cap.

Currently his #1 center will be 37 years old next season and the blueline is in shambles. So what's his plan? Expect to find another Datsyuk and Zetterberg deep in the draft while continuing to be a playoff bubble team? And also find or acquire a #1 Dman?

I think you misunderstand. I pointed out he managed to transition one winning core to another. He's failed miserably the second time he tried it. This is absolutely not a sane plan, unless we get a Dats, a Hank, and a Kronner from this draft. We're also no longer a bubble playoff team. We're likely to be picking high for a few years to come. Not sure what kind of magic plan will prevent this from happening.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

Exactly. We went from Yzerman/Fedorov/Lidstrom to Lidstrom/Datsyuk/Zetterberg which is why we just had the streak and success we had. And for that we're all thankful and Ken Holland deserves a lot of credit. But the problem is how that happened and where we're headed next.

Drafting to franchise centers in back-to-back years in the 6th and 7th rds is beyond rare. Detroit essentially is the guy who won the lottery twice or got hit by lightning twice. And they deserve tons of credit for that, but realistically that will never happen again. And that's something that needs to be recognized for how unlikely it is and was. You tip your hat for them having miraculously pulled it off, but you don't double down and act like it's going to happen again.

As has been mentioned, how long has it been now since Detroit has drafted another elite player?

The fear is that Holland is going to continue to try to patch together the most competitive team he can year in and year out to try to make the playoffs because in his words, "just get in." And that philosophy is flawed beyond belief and only delays the rebuilding.

Ironically enough, Detroit's entire rise can originally be dated from the moment that they had the 4th overall pick and got that first elite piece.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I think you misunderstand. I pointed out he managed to transition one winning core to another. He's failed miserably the second time he tried it. This is absolutely not a sane plan, unless we get a Dats, a Hank, and a Kronner from this draft. We're also no longer a bubble playoff team. We're likely to be picking high for a few years to come. Not sure what kind of magic plan will prevent this from happening.

Ah ok. Got it.

My reference to being a bubble playoff team meant that's where it sounds like Holland wants to get back to.

You're right in that he has zero track record for this current situation. But I understand why given his behavior the last few seasons and his words, people aren't terribly optimistic, me included. But i would love to end up being totally wrong.

 

[Red Stanley]

I know its really fatiguing constantly hearing, 'oh you want to be team X who hasn't even made the playoffs in X years'. Umm.........when that roster is stocked with up and coming elite talent? Then yes becasue that is 'ALL' that matters. I don't give a flying fart about what a team has done over the last 10 years

You don't care about the championship from 8 years ago? Or the 3 others before that in the past two decades? The ultimate goal is to just load up on young talent? Well, good times are in store for you, then.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I would think expectations from both fanbases are the same. Be competitive.

Eh, not really. Wings fans have been cup-or-bust for 20+ years. Making the playoffs, even making the 2nd round, has been looked upon as a failure. If the Wings make the playoffs next year, even with Larkin/AA/Mantha/Mrazek/etc leading the way, it will still be shrugged off by most Wings fans as just another mediocre year. Leafs could have 5 years of being a borderline playoff team and their fans would still be happy. Because the last time they made the playoffs 2 years in a row was pre-lockout.

Holland is absolutely right that the question of whether to blow the team up and go scorched earth is a question for when we miss the playoffs 5 years in a row. Not when we miss it once. Babcock & Co. came in when Toronto had been out of the playoffs for pretty much a decade, outside of one fluke appearance in a shortened season which ended with one of the most embarrassing collapses in hockey history. Those fans are happy as long as their team is not the laughing stock of the league. Wings fans aren't happy unless the Wings are the class of the league and by far the most succesful team.

 

[Dotter]

You asked what the front office is supposed to say when the team is bad and needs to rebuild.

I provided quotes from a recently installed front office on a team that was bad and needed to rebuild.

You promptly dismissed it and said there was nothing in common.



Now what Detroit WILL do is entirely different {...}

Toronto fans were long overdue for a full-tank rebuild. They demanded it. Red Wings fans (as a whole) are not even close to being there yet. Maybe they will be after missing a the POs a few seasons. But not right now. The streak just officially ended a few days ago.

TMLs streak ended like, what? 60 years ago?

 

[jkutswings]

You don't care about the championship from 8 years ago? Or the 3 others before that in the past two decades? The ultimate goal is to just load up on young talent? Well, good times are in store for you, then.

But all accomplishments, no matter how impressive, have a shelf life.

I still remember those championships fondly. But as a given accomplishment gets further in the rearview mirror, it becomes less and less relevant to predicting future actions and outcomes than the recent past.

IMO, in the current NHL, I'm not sure how much farther then 5 years ago that I'd look for judging front office performance, particularly since they're about the league-wide average for tenure of a general manager. So from that standpoint, Ken Holland USED TO BE a phenomenal GM, but definitely isn't any longer.

 

[Retire91]

You don't care about the championship from 8 years ago? Or the 3 others before that in the past two decades? The ultimate goal is to just load up on young talent? Well, good times are in store for you, then.

What a team has done in the last 10 years doesn't really matter. What matters is does your roster have elite talent, because if it doesn't then the cup is not in the dialog. Every team has a chance to aquire elite talent every season through trade, UFA, or draft. Holland has no trade peices that would aquire an elite player. UFA will be overpaid and mostly outside of the age range that this team needs, so that leaves the draft. The higher you draft the higher your probability you draft an elite player.

I think the biggest problem most people have is that Holland has shown no clear plan and even less aptitude for acquiring elite talent in today's NHL. That is why the team needs to loose, because its the only way factor that we the fans have which is outside of Holland's control mostly. If the team looses we get a better probability of having a future. If we don't draft high and the rest is up to Holland, the guy who just signed a average winger to a 7 year contract, traded down in a draft with a team that has no elite talent, and acquired a middling center for 6 years to replace a HOF player, yeah not really holding my breath.

Excuse typos lol, caffeinated.

Toronto fans were long overdue for a full-tank rebuild. They demanded it. Red Wings fans (as a whole) are not even close to being there yet. Maybe they will be after missing a the POs a few seasons. But not right now. The streak just officially ended a few days ago.

TMLs streak ended like, what? 60 years ago?

Most people knew a tear down was needed even when Burke took over but Burke did what Holland is doing today. Put his foot on the gas and tried to make the playoffs with one of the worst rosters in the NHL. And we are pretty much going to see the exact same results until we get our Shanaplan.

 

[jkutswings]

Eh, not really. Wings fans have been cup-or-bust for 20+ years. Making the playoffs, even making the 2nd round, has been looked upon as a failure. If the Wings make the playoffs next year, even with Larkin/AA/Mantha/Mrazek/etc leading the way, it will still be shrugged off by most Wings fans as just another mediocre year. Leafs could have 5 years of being a borderline playoff team and their fans would still be happy. Because the last time they made the playoffs 2 years in a row was pre-lockout.

Holland is absolutely right that the question of whether to blow the team up and go scorched earth is a question for when we miss the playoffs 5 years in a row. Not when we miss it once. Babcock & Co. came in when Toronto had been out of the playoffs for pretty much a decade, outside of one fluke appearance in a shortened season which ended with one of the most embarrassing collapses in hockey history. Those fans are happy as long as their team is not the laughing stock of the league. Wings fans aren't happy unless the Wings are the class of the league and by far the most succesful team.

Vehemently disagree. If Detroit misses the playoffs twice in a row, and Holland still refuses to dive into a rebuild approaching year two of the new arena, he should be fired...if only for being delusional.

 

[jkutswings]

Toronto fans were long overdue for a full-tank rebuild. They demanded it. Red Wings fans (as a whole) are not even close to being there yet. Maybe they will be after missing a the POs a few seasons. But not right now. The streak just officially ended a few days ago.

TMLs streak ended like, what? 60 years ago?

So you're saying that a team has carte blanche to make lousy decisions until the fans grab their pitchforks? Last I checked, effective and successful people/organizations were inherently PROactive.

 

[TatarTangle]

Why even bother with this charade they call playoff hockey? Just hand these three rookies the Cup now, or at the very least give them a bye to the conference finals. HFBoards has deemed them sufficiently relevant.

Easy killer. Instead of throwing hyperbole around why don't you argue why Toronto isn't relevant in today's NHL

 

[Red Stanley]

What a team has done in the last 10 years doesn't really matter. What matters is does your roster have elite talent, because if it doesn't then the cup is not in the dialog. Every team has a chance to aquire elite talent every season through trade, UFA, or draft. Holland has no trade peices that would aquire an elite player. UFA will be overpaid and mostly outside of the age range that this team needs, so that leaves the draft. The higher you draft the higher your probability you draft an elite player.

Ok I get what you're saying. You want high turnover during down years. I can see the appeal of the new car smell when nothing else seems to be happening.

Easy killer. Instead of throwing hyperbole around why don't you argue why Toronto isn't relevant in today's NHL

I already did, but, as it turns out, your definition of relevant is different from mine.

 

[TatarTangle]

I already did, but, as it turns out, your definition of relevant is different from mine.

A wise butt reply isn't an argument, that just shows you're full of it. Especially considering you don't even know what my definition of relevant is.

Elite talent + making the playoffs = relevant FWIW. Granted, Toronto still may not make the playoffs despite being one point up on Boston but since they have three rookies shattering records left and right and have arguably the best coach in the NHL I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt. The above would also be why Edmonton hasn't been relevant until now despite stockpiling 38474 1st overalls for the past 23873 years. Luckily they found McJesus. Also why Colorado isn't relevant, ton of wasted talent over in Denver.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

The by far biggest reason for any NHL team's failure is poor management. But at the same time it's not rocket science to figure out what you need to win Stanley Cups and it's also not rocket science to figure out that the Wings currently don't have the necessary pieces.

Whether it's time to rebuild or time to add pieces is something dictated by what you do have on your roster. I think it's pretty apparent that without any legit superstars at any position the Wings are a *long* way from contending. This must be obvious to Holland as well.

The clear issue here is that there's a new arena. It looks to me like they're willing to lie about where the team is at to keep interest reasonably high so the new arena isn't a 'ghost town' in its inaugural season. I happen to believe that is a grave mistake even if you make a few more bucks next year as a result. You will suffer for it in 5-10 years and at some point nobody will believe your PR anymore.

 

[Dotter]

So you're saying that a team has carte blanche to make lousy decisions until the fans grab their pitchforks? Last I checked, effective and successful people/organizations were inherently PROactive.

No, it's when they [fans] stop grabbing their money and vote with their wallets. Ilitches aren't billionaires because they're idiots when it comes to money. Last I checked, hockey isn't just a game; it's a business. Effective and successful people/organizations know when to hold and know when to fold. Red Wings (from business standpoint) apparently aren't ready to fold.

Another good point from that article:

The notion of tearing things down completely and being bad for a few years and rebuilding into a powerhouse sounds really sexy to a lot of fans and fantasy hockey players, but Holland has a really good point here. Think about it. If the recipe for building a Stanley Cup contender were simply a matter of being bad for an extended period of time and accumulating high draft picks, why are the Arizona Coyotes still one of the worst teams in the NHL? Why did it take the Columbus Blue Jackets 15 years to build a contending team? Why are the Winnipeg Jets and Carolina Hurricanes still perennially missing the playoffs? The Washington Capitals have Alex Ovechkin, but haven’t been out of the first round of the playoffs.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Vehemently disagree. If Detroit misses the playoffs twice in a row, and Holland still refuses to dive into a rebuild approaching year two of the new arena, he should be fired...if only for being delusional.

Depends. If the team has a set of standards that easily 26 of 30(1) other NHL teams would never have, then sure. Fire him.

If the team has a set of standards that a heavy majority of NHL teams have, then no. Keep him.

 

[Shaman464]

No, it's when they [fans] stop grabbing their money and vote with their wallets. Ilitches aren't billionaires because they're idiots when it comes to money. Last I checked, hockey isn't just a game; it's a business. Effective and successful people/organizations know when to hold and know when to fold. Red Wings (from business standpoint) apparently aren't ready to fold.

Another good point from that article:

Yeah, inept management can squander the best assets. It takes more than just a tank to get to elite status, it takes people who know what they are doing to develop and build a team form the ground up.

Detroit right now is like the parable of the funnel on a ship. It keeps getting painted over and over, until no one can see the original metal work. When the paint is finally stripped its clear that metal had rusted away years ago and there is nothing left to hold it up. That's Detroit. Their best young players right now are complementary pieces to pieces Detroit doesn't have, and is unlikely to get. You can't just keep painting over it. And that's what Holland wants to do, paint over it.

 

[Frk It]

Make 5 years of futility the starting point for a scorched earth or aggressive rebuild?

Yup, that's a great way to hit that 10 year rebuild timeline Holland keeps talking about.

 

[19 for president]

The Wings have no choice but to scorch the earth rebuild at this point thanks to the contracts Holland has signed. The Wings are barely going to afford their raises this year. Which means the defense is going to remain a disaster.

To not tank Holland would have to get Vegas to take Abby r at least Helm. One or both of E and Kronner would need to retire. Howard would need to be traded probaby with 2 mil retained. He'd need to turn one of Nyquist or Tatar into a top 4 dman. He'd need to sign one of Shatty or Alzner. That's the only way I think you can make these team decent again, and even then you are relying on the kids taking the next step.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Eh, not really. Wings fans have been cup-or-bust for 20+ years. Making the playoffs, even making the 2nd round, has been looked upon as a failure. If the Wings make the playoffs next year, even with Larkin/AA/Mantha/Mrazek/etc leading the way, it will still be shrugged off by most Wings fans as just another mediocre year. Leafs could have 5 years of being a borderline playoff team and their fans would still be happy. Because the last time they made the playoffs 2 years in a row was pre-lockout.

Holland is absolutely right that the question of whether to blow the team up and go scorched earth is a question for when we miss the playoffs 5 years in a row. Not when we miss it once. Babcock & Co. came in when Toronto had been out of the playoffs for pretty much a decade, outside of one fluke appearance in a shortened season which ended with one of the most embarrassing collapses in hockey history. Those fans are happy as long as their team is not the laughing stock of the league. Wings fans aren't happy unless the Wings are the class of the league and by far the most succesful team.

That is how you end up in a 10-year rebuild.