The Official "STL Blues Draft Position" Thread Pt1: (19-8-2)

[2 Minute Minor]

If Chris Stewart is going to have a showcase game that enhances his trade value, its tonight. He was a thorn in the side for the Blues while in Colorado. He was a thorn for entirely different reasons when he was in St Louis.

Oshie is still out, but otherwise the Blues are approaching being healthy. Other than the Tarasenko line, we don't really know what the lines are. Sounds like maybe Backes is being moved to RW with Stastny centering, but not sure.

Would be super cool for Reaves and Stewart to drop them, but I don't think it happens. Maybe Stewart and Ott is more realistic, and also a pretty good story.

 

[Woodhouse]

Would be super cool for Reaves and Stewart to drop them, but I don't think it happens. Maybe Stewart and Ott is more realistic, and also a pretty good story.

Reaves is scratched with whatever LBI he picked up yesterday, so that's definitely not happening.

 

[Woodhouse]

Actually draft picks 15-30 are determined by playoff finish, so, if we're assuming St Louis is a playoff team, a loss vs St Louis is beneficial because it affects our draft pick. St Louis could win the presidents trophy, they are knocked out of the playoffs int he 1st round, they pick 22nd. They finish as the 8th seed and win the cup, they pick 30th.

Is that true? I thought the only draft pick moving around happening was for the 4 teams that made the conference finals? I could be wrong but I thought if a team finished 16th and even won a playoff round, they would still pick 15th unless they made the conference finals in which case they would pick 27-30.

An early elimination for a President's Trophy team would mean they pick 26th and not 22nd, as division winners are inverse seeded by points after eliminated non-division winners and that team would be the best division winner.

 

[sabrebuild]

I think its crazy to think we don't have last locked up this year. This team is what it is, terrible. And we haven't had any bad injuries. When any of the few quality players go down, which is pretty inevitable this team will get worse. Need a win tonight!

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

I just looked up the Blues' regular season record since the Olympics, including this season:

16-14-2.

They were 39-12-6 heading into the Olympics. I'm a little surprised that they're barely over .500 since that time. Extrapolates to about 87 pts over an 82/game season. Only one WC playoff team had fewer than 98 pts last season, and that was Dallas with 91.

While I think they'll be fine, the Blues may be in more trouble than we realize.

For a frame of reference, the Islanders are 19-9-1 since the Olympics.

They were more injured at the end of the regular season last year than the Jackets are right now. They lost like 9 in a row to end the year.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

That a Shatty/Berglund package has enough upside left to net an elite player with some question marks by themselves is this team's only saving grace. Shattenkirk doesn't suck, but he's not good enough to be a top 4 defenseman on a Cup team given the lack of physical, stay at home defense on that blueline, and they don't have enough at forward to make his offense from the backend reliable in playoff situations.

 

[couture23]

lol ^

yeah i have no idea what he's talking about, Shatty is the perfect 2nd pairing defenceman on ANY team

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

It's all in good fun

All we have to look forward to is the demise of the teams which gave us their 1st.

Hey I do it every year in NHL 15.

Good luck with the rebuild. It will all be worth it soon. Ours took 5 years but the Sabres shouldn't be as bad since you hopefully are getting a premier player at the draft. We got friggin EJ.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

lol ^

yeah i have no idea what he's talking about, Shatty is the perfect 2nd pairing defenceman on ANY team

And I wasn't trying to antagonize. Pulling for the Sabres to at worst get Eichel. I think unlike some of the other bottom teams the Sabres have the right idea.

 

[Woodhouse]

I think its crazy to think we don't have last locked up this year. This team is what it is, terrible. And we haven't had any bad injuries. When any of the few quality players go down, which is pretty inevitable this team will get worse. Need a win tonight!

Yeah, remember, the draft works like this... there's the lottery odds for non-playoff teams; then non-division winners eliminated in the first two rounds are placed in inverse order of regular-season points, followed by division winners in inverse order of regular-season points; then the same with the two teams eliminated in the conference finals; and finally the Cup runner-up and champion... so sure, there's the unknown variable of playoff success/failure, but basically, if STL and/or NYI make the playoffs, for the sake of better draft position (think 15-22 overall), we don't want them to be a division winner (which are seeded after non-winners, 23-26) nor to advance to at least the conference finals (27-30). It's a 15-22 pick if their postseason goes our way.

IMO, even tankers should want to win STL (and NYI) games in regulation, as that's four dropped points (and six for NYI) that they can't use to improve/maintain their standing. I'm not remotely worried about our cushion from 29th (18 GF, 1 ROW; 14 ROW + 14-pt cushion last season) right now and would rather see one of our dozen or so ROW's come tonight with STL dropping points. We're bound to win some games, so why not root to win games that otherwise could contribute to making the playoffs, home-ice advantage, or division titles for STL (and NYI)? I'd rather our wins come against them than teams they're in direct competition with (other Central or Metro teams).

Buffalo doesn't get extra credit for separation from 29th, so there's no rush to separate greatly early other than not making fans sweat our lottery odds a little longer and quell their back-of-the-mind fears of no McEichel. But really, how much more evidence do you need? Buffalo's healthy, constantly juggling the lineup, and still historically sucks with decent goaltending. If their health or goalies falter, they'll be even worse.

TL;DR, I think it's ok to win tonight too.

 

[couture23]

And I wasn't trying to antagonize. Pulling for the Sabres to at worst get Eichel. I think unlike some of the other bottom teams the Sabres have the right idea.

i was laughing at your response, good stuff

 

[Woodhouse]

The power, and potential problems, of St. Louis Blues attack (Puck Momalytics):

How could any of this be a problem you may ask. The problem is that all of the offense at 5v5 for the Blues is coming from the same place. They’ve definitely dealt with injuries early in the season so they may well start running on all cylinders soon, but at this point, they are really only running on one cylinder, or forward line.

As a team, the Blues have 26 goals during 5v5 play. Tarasenko has been on the ice for 18 of those. Lehtera has been on for 14 of those goals followed by Schwartz at 11 and Steen at 9. With players returning to the lineup, the Tarasenko, Lehtera, Steen line has been changed to include Schwartz so that Steen can lead a line of recently returned players. When you ignore the defensemen in the graph above, the forwards outside of those four players have not given much in the way of offensive production.

The graph above will help put this in perspective. From left to right is the Player’s percentage of the team’s ice time during a game. Ryan Reaves plays the smallest percentage of time for the Blues during a game with defensemen Alex Pietrangelo holding the largest share. On the vertical axis is the percentage of the team’s goals scored while the player is on the ice. Tarasenko has a league leading 69.23% percentage of Team Goals For even when defensemen are included. Lehtera is 9th in the league among forwards. That is an awfully big chunk of a team’s offense being tied to one player (Tarasenko). Even Schwartz is higher on the list than the defensemen. All of this points to the vast majority of the team’s offensive production coming from very few players.

Blues also get the Caps' backup (J.Peters) tonight.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

This has been discussed at length (not the article, the lopsided offensive contributions) on the Blues board.

Backes and Oshie have been slow starters, and both were out with concussions on top of that. Only the last 2 games have the Blues actually had their full line-up, including since the start of training camp. And that's about the same two games that Backes and Oshie have started to look like their familiar selves. Low and behold, they are starting to contribute to offense too.

Stastny has not looked worth his 7M salary yet, but again he's been out for a bunch of games with a shoulder injury and has had his line juggled when he was in.

The emergence of the STL line, and the idea to scrap the Backes at RW idea (a bad idea) has created a second solidified line of Berglund/Backes/Oshie. What I'm saying is that with all the new pieces, only now have the Blues figured out their top 9 and got everyone healthy at the same time.

STL has carried the team through this series of injuries to Backes, Oshie, Stastny. We're all curious how long they can keep it going when the rest of the league is gearing to shut them down. I would start the clock from right now though, in terms of gauging how much the other top 9 lines are contributing.

 

[couture23]

This has been discussed at length (not the article, the lopsided offensive contributions) on the Blues board.

Stastny has not looked worth his 7M salary yet, but again he's been out for a bunch of games with a shoulder injury and has had his line juggled when he was in.

No offense but I don't he ever will. UFA contracts are tough to gauge because he's probably overpaid by about $1M. He's still a good player and everyone saw him leaving for STL, but generally UFA's won't live up to the contracts they get on July 1st.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

No offense but I don't he ever will. UFA contracts are tough to gauge because he's probably overpaid by about $1M. He's still a good player and everyone saw him leaving for STL, but generally UFA's won't live up to the contracts they get on July 1st.

I don't disagree with you. With the hindsight of Lehtera's revelation maybe the urgency to get Stastny looks less justifiable. Let's say "look like a top 6 center". I'm not really complaining about his play as much as I'm allowing he needs time to cement his role and find his sea legs after that shoulder injury and joining a new system.

 

[couture23]

I don't disagree with you. With the hindsight of Lehtera's revelation maybe the urgency to get Stastny looks less justifiable. Let's say "look like a top 6 center". I'm not really complaining about his play as much as I'm allowing he needs time to cement his role and find his sea legs after that shoulder injury and joining a new system.

Lehtera's outbreak is probably being celebrated amongst the fanbase I bet.

 

[Clock]

Boston shuts out St Louis.

 

[Clock]

Interesting that at this point the Blues actually only have one more point than the Islanders do.

 

[yahhockey]

Trouble-a-Blueing in the midwest?

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2014/11/25/video-blues-elliott-leaves-game-with-right-leg-injury/

 

[TehDoak]

Trouble-a-Blueing in the midwest?

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2014/11/25/video-blues-elliott-leaves-game-with-right-leg-injury/

I could play goalie for the blues and they'd still be a 100 pt team.

 

[sjci]

St. Louis Blues Goaltender Brian Elliott Considered Week-To-Week With Injury: from Jeremy Rutherford

 

[Clock]

Yeah, that's not going to slow them down too much.

 

[Woodhouse]

Never fear .. Brodeur to the rescue.

Chris Johnston @reporterchris 3m
Martin Brodeur is joining the #stlblues on a tryout basis as of Friday.

 

[ZeroPT*]

Ewwww

 

[The Washer]

EDM with a tankalicious 3 shots in the 1st. Need a miracle for a win here tonight