The official hundred points watch thread.

[AvsFan29]

This will be quoted when the year is over.

Good

 

[Mrb1p]

I think it would be better if you kept personal opinion out of it and just supplied the stats. Matthews is on a 100+ point pace even with the time he's missed and I don't see any reason to point out Point on that list as he's been incredible.

Stating hes at the highest shooting percentage in the league and the highest the league has seen after 30 games is statistics.

 

[AvsFan29]

I think it would be better if you kept personal opinion out of it and just supplied the stats. Matthews is on a 100+ point pace even with the time he's missed and I don't see any reason to point out Point on that list as he's been incredible.

You actually think Matthews is going to break 100 points? He needs 76 points in 53 games. That's a 1.43ppg average.
I'm too lazy to look when the last time a player kept up a 1.4ppg average over 50+ games, but I'm sure the number of players who have done it in the last 20 years is extremely low.

 

[AvsFan29]

Stating hes at the highest shooting percentage in the league and the highest the league has seen after 30 games is statistics.

He meant statistics that are negative to Matthews

 

[Critical13]

You actually think Matthews is going to break 100 points? He needs 76 points in 53 games. That's a 1.43ppg average.
I'm too lazy to look when the last time a player kept up a 1.4ppg average over 50+ games, but I'm sure the number of players who have done it in the last 20 years is extremely low.

I think he could do it, yes.

He meant statistics that are negative to Matthews

That's why I mentioned Point?

Nicely done, bud.

 

[The Podium]

Hopefully he can break 70

If he does, hed break 70 as many time as you boy Nathan has in his career.

 

[AvsFan29]

If he does, hed break 70 as many time as you boy Nathan has in his career.

I just hope he does so he gains some credibility with some people.

 

[The Podium]

I just hope he does so he gains some credibility with some people.

I mean, at least he didnt average 50 points through the first 4 years of his career. Thats something right?

 

[AvsFan29]

I mean, at least he didnt average 50 points through the first 4 years of his career. Thats something right?

Yah he did better than 50, I think he was somewhere around 65. The reason I want him to break 70 points is because he's a lot better than a 65 point player, but people can always bring up that fact. Hopefully this is his year.

 

[Critical13]

Yah he did better than 50, I think he was somewhere around 65. The reason I want him to break 70 points is because he's a lot better than a 65 point player, but people can always bring up that fact. Hopefully this is his year.

Nobody with a brain for hockey calls Matthews a 65 point player. Bad injury luck happens. You seem to have a pretty keen interest in him.

 

[AvsFan29]

Nobody with a hockey brain would suggest that he could hit 100 points this season. I was interested in your comment that he could do it.

 

[42]

Rantanen would have to only put up 51 points in his final 53 games after putting up 47 in 29 games, to end up with 98 points.

Without injury it's not very likely.

That's almost PPG pace. Likely. Look up his oiSH%. He's due for a big regression.

 

[42]

Thats a hige decline in points for Rantanen, why do you believe so?

14.3 oiSH% compared to 10.5 last year. 14.3 is an extremely high number and extremely unlikely to be sustained over the whole season. Last year, for example, MacKinnon had 11.9, McDavid had 10.5, Kucherov had 11. Going back more years, look at the top 10 finishes each year and you'll see their oiSH% is nowhere near Rantanen's current one.

 

[AvsFan29]

That's almost PPG pace. Likely. Look up his oiSH%. He's due for a big regression.

I've seen every game of his career. Nothing over the past 115 games suggest that he's going to have a "big regression".

I don't think he'll end up with 135 points, but I would be shocked if he didn't hit 100 without a serious injury.

I mean it's much more likely he's at 60 points at the 40 game mark.

 

[42]

Rantanen will never be short of 100 points unless he gets injured

Anyone who thinks he will is clueless

Right. Stats are clueless.

 

[42]

I've seen every game of his career. Nothing over the past 115 games suggest that he's going to have a "big regression".

I don't think he'll end up with 135 points, but I would be shocked if he didn't hit 100 without a serious injury.

I mean it's much more likely he's at 60 points at the 40 game mark.

I wouldn't be surprised if he did hit 100 points. I also wouldn't be surprised if he fell just short of it.

 

[Sombastate]

I'm gonna say McDavid, Mackinnon, Rantanan, Giroux, Crosby and Kucherov

 

[AvsFan29]

Right. Stats are clueless.

What stat points towards him not hitting 100? OISH% isn't a perfect stat by any means.

 

[AvsFan29]

I wouldn't be surprised if he did hit 100 points. I also wouldn't be surprised if he fell just short of it.

It's possible but without an injury it's highly unlikely. He would have to go into a serious slump, and MacKinnon would also have to go into a serious slump at the same time.

 

[Quiet Jack]

I think he could do it, yes.



That's why I mentioned Point?

Nicely done, bud.

Lol, on a scale of 1-10 how much do you love Matthews?

 

[42]

What stat points towards him not hitting 100? OISH% isn't a perfect stat by any means.

Well, no stat on its own is perfect but it is a good indicator of luck and I can say without much doubt that Rantanen has been lucky at EV this season. He won't sustain his current level of EV production so there will some regression there. That regression could very well end up lowering his totals from his current pace of, what 130-ish points, to 105 points or to just below 100 points. I did a calc a while back in another thread where his number, based on regression predicted by oiSH%, was 98; hence my prediction. It's just stats, don't get too emotionally attached to their conclusion. Rantanen is a terrific player!

 

[flamesforcup]

Nobody with a brain for hockey calls Matthews a 65 point player. Bad injury luck happens. You seem to have a pretty keen interest in him.

Lol u are defending Matthews like he's ur dad. Chill out man people have other opinions its a message board. Not everyone thinks Matthews is the next Gretzky.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I think it would be better if you kept personal opinion out of it and just supplied the stats. Matthews is on a 100+ point pace even with the time he's missed and I don't see any reason to point out Point on that list as he's been incredible.

I suspect that the irony in your post will go right over your head.

 

[AvsFan29]

Well, no stat on its own is perfect but it is a good indicator of luck and I can say without much doubt that Rantanen has been lucky at EV this season. He won't sustain his current level of EV production so there will some regression there. That regression could very well end up lowering his totals from his current pace of, what 130-ish points, to 105 points or to just below 100 points. I did a calc a while back in another thread where his number, based on regression predicted by oiSH%, was 98; hence my prediction. It's just stats, don't get too emotionally attached to their conclusion. Rantanen is a terrific player!

I'm not emotionally attached to Rantanen doing well, I just find it extremely difficult to see him missing without an injury.

He only needs 13 points in the next 11 games to hit 60 points in 40 games. If he keeps his current pace, he will be at 65 points after 40 games.

 

[Mrb1p]

That's almost PPG pace. Likely. Look up his oiSH%. He's due for a big regression.

Obviously he is. Hes not Gretzky. But to regress from 1.55 ppg to under one is unlikely.