The NJ Devils Goaltender Thread

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Bleedred

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If he can provide us .915-920 next year, it should be just enough. That's where I expect him to be. The optimist in me is hoping for .925+
The optimist in me is hoping for .915%-.920%. I'm hoping it's at least .910%-.915% though.

If it's below .910% again, I think we can reasonably come to the conclusion that at (then) 34 years old, he's probably not gonna be good again.
 
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Bleedred

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And for ALL the blaming of the defense from earlier on this year (which most weren't blaming that for Cory, but were for Mr. Career Backup and #52nd best starting goalie in the NHL and his .900% save percentage when removing his games against Tampa and Toronto out of his stats ) when goalies were getting beat up on, can we at least now reasonably deduce that goaltending was the biggest problem all along?

If the defense was the problem, the goalies would be playing the worst they have all year right now, with these lineups and guys like Santini, Yakovlev, White and Jacobs, with sometimes 3 of these 4 being in the lineup in the same game. And allowing 46 shots on goal (I know it's Buffalo and they can't finish and even Ottawa is shutting them out) which didn't happen with the healthy lineup earlier in the year.
 

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Honestly, I don't think our defensive play has been much worse than last year. We just didn't get the goaltending early to where we could find any traction. Last year Cory was good until late December and we were able to get enough points to withstand bad (Cory) or inconsistent (Kinkaid) goaltending for about 5-6 weeks until Keith caught fire.

This year we just never really got going. We started 4-0, then promptly dropped 9 of our next 11. Kinkaid was actually around league average through November, then the wheels came off him completely. I certainly don't think it was all just goaltending, but given that Cory and Blackwood are both playing better behind a worse roster leads me to believe goaltending was a pretty significant factor in how this season played out.

To be fair to Kinkaid, he's a career backup who got hot for 6 weeks last year, so expecting him to repeat it was probably unfair. Still, his numbers from December on were staggeringly awful and well below even his career averages. It seems like things just snowballed on him, like it did for the team as a whole.
 

devilsblood

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And for ALL the blaming of the defense from earlier on this year (which most weren't blaming that for Cory, but were for Mr. Career Backup and #52nd best starting goalie in the NHL and his .900% save percentage when removing his games against Tampa and Toronto out of his stats ) when goalies were getting beat up on, can we at least now reasonably deduce that goaltending was the biggest problem all along?

If the defense was the problem, the goalies would be playing the worst they have all year right now, with these lineups and guys like Santini, Yakovlev, White and Jacobs, with sometimes 3 of these 4 being in the lineup in the same game. And allowing 46 shots on goal (I know it's Buffalo and they can't finish and even Ottawa is shutting them out) which didn't happen with the healthy lineup earlier in the year.
I do agree, but did Hynes reign in some of the more aggressive defensive tactics when the injuries were at their worst? I feel like they did.

Still I never bought the idea that the goalies were fine and the real issue was the defense(whether it be lack of talent or the system).
 
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NjDevsRR

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I mean that is pretty damn impressive that Cory has climbed to a .904 percentage on the season from where he was at, and with an AHL caliber roster to boot.
 
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Bleedred

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yep. it’s a shame we’re going to buy him out in a couple of months
I think it'll be next year, if he doesn't get his save percentage to .910%. That's when we'll know once and for all whether the injury just crushed his play for over 2 years or if he's permanently shot and the injuries ruined his career.

I think it was dangerously close to happening this year. If he came out and continued to look even half as bad as he did before February, I'm sure he would have been bought out after this year.
 
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Bleedred

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I do agree, but did Hynes reign in some of the more aggressive defensive tactics when the injuries were at their worst? I feel like they did.

Still I never bought the idea that the goalies were fine and the real issue was the defense(whether it be lack of talent or the system).
If anything, I think he dialed it back to the turtle system from his first year and much of his second year.

It probably just kept us from allowing 40 shots most night, while stifling our own offense and shot production, but we were still allowing over 30, due to all of the AHL guys hanging around.
 

Bleedred

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Honestly, I don't think our defensive play has been much worse than last year. We just didn't get the goaltending early to where we could find any traction. Last year Cory was good until late December and we were able to get enough points to withstand bad (Cory) or inconsistent (Kinkaid) goaltending for about 5-6 weeks until Keith caught fire.

This year we just never really got going. We started 4-0, then promptly dropped 9 of our next 11. Kinkaid was actually around league average through November, then the wheels came off him completely. I certainly don't think it was all just goaltending, but given that Cory and Blackwood are both playing better behind a worse roster leads me to believe goaltending was a pretty significant factor in how this season played out.

To be fair to Kinkaid, he's a career backup who got hot for 6 weeks last year, so expecting him to repeat it was probably unfair. Still, his numbers from December on were staggeringly awful and well below even his career averages. It seems like things just snowballed on him, like it did for the team as a whole.
I think Kinkaid just couldn't be a starter two years in a row in a competent matter. I don't know if last year from him was necessarily a fluke, as much as it definitely was something that proved to not be repeated in consecutive years. It's identical to Scott Clemmensen's 08-09 run when Marty was injured. Darcy Kuemper might be this year's version of Kinkaid from last year.

He led the league in my stoppable goal count at the time he last played a game 5 weeks ago. He's since been passed by 6 or 7 other guys, but I don't even think more than 10 guys have hit 40 and he was the first. So he was really going for the Stoppable goal Jennings Trophy. Don't think he would have beaten out Mikko Koskinen or Mike Smith for the stoppable goal Vezina.
 

devilsblood

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I think it'll be next year, if he doesn't get his save percentage to .910%. That's when we'll know once and for all whether the injury just crushed his play for over 2 years or if he's permanently shot and the injuries ruined his career.

I think it was dangerously close to happening this year. If he came out and continued to look even half as bad as he did before February, I'm sure he would have been bought out after this year.
Disagree, like I said, what is the benefit to buying him out after this year? As opposed to seeing if a full offseason would not have helped him get his game back? We could have always bought him out after next year.
 

Bleedred

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Disagree, like I said, what is the benefit to buying him out after this year? As opposed to seeing if a full offseason would not have helped him get his game back? We could have always bought him out after next year.
If he would have come back to play poorly like he did early on, I think Shero would have bit the bullet on it, especially with how he publicly talked about him specifically when discussing the goaltending problem on the team earlier this season and already not being hesitant on buying out players that are old(er) and useless like Cammalleri and Zubrus, who don't fit anymore. Especially if Shero wants to compete/get better next year. Only difference is that those players had less term remaining on their deals.

But I think him showing he's at least still serviceable the last 1.5 months, combined with the buyout cap hit (6 years instead of 4 if we bought him out after this year), he's saved himself from a buyout after this year. But before February, he didn't even look serviceable at all.
 

devilsblood

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If he would have come back to play poorly like he did early on, I think Shero would have bit the bullet on it, especially with how he publicly talked about him specifically when discussing the goaltending problem on the team earlier this season and already not being hesitant on buying out players that are old(er) and useless like Cammalleri and Zubrus, who don't fit anymore. Especially if Shero wants to compete/get better next year. Only difference is that those players had less term remaining on their deals.

But I think him showing he's at least still serviceable the last 1.5 months, combined with the buyout cap hit (6 years instead of 4 if we bought him out after this year), he's saved himself from a buyout after this year. But before February, he didn't even look serviceable at all.
Cory has come back and looked great. Not merely serviceable. Which points to his poor play being injury related. Shero knew this. Shero also knew if Cory could get healthy his play would improve. It may not have happened midseason, it could have come later. A long offseason would be a great time to get healthy. Why would Shero not wait to see if Cory can come back next season back on track? What was the rush?

The buyout narrative was never a real thing. A complete HF creation.
 
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Bleedred

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Cory has come back and looked great. Not merely serviceable. Which points to his poor play being injury related. Shero knew this. Shero also knew if Cory could get healthy his play would improve. It may not have happened midseason, it could have come later. A long offseason would be a great time to get healthy. Why would Shero not wait to see if Cory can come back next season back on track? What was the rush?

The buyout narrative was never a real thing. A complete HF creation.
He has been great and not just serviceable but you and everybody can not yet prove that he would look this good if he played 30-40 or more games next year. Just like I can’t prove yet that he won’t.

When I say serviceable, I’m still not convinced he’s the .925% goalie he’s been since coming back because the sample size is too small.

And I’m sure you remember but Cory was not serviceable his first 7 starts or whatever it was. And that was another reason we were dead early.

So hypothetically let me ask you this. Say Cory comes back last month and don’t look much better than he did in November-December. What would Shero have done then for next year? Because by keeping him around for next year, he’s essebtially already punting the season away. Remember, this is hypothetically assuming he hadn’t improved when he came back.

Unless you think he would have just waived him and put him in Binghamton to at least start next season.
 

Bleedred

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It still amazes me he lost twice to Buffalo’s AHL squad and beat their NHL squad twice.

That is a main board worthy stat
We only lost to Buffalo once. We only play them 3 times a year. Cory beat them both times. His first win over them was his first win in a start this year. And Kinkaid was in net for the one loss and allowed at least two garbage softies in that game.

But if you remove his stats against Tampa, Toronto and Buffalo this year, his save percentage climbs up from .891% to .901%!
 

Bleedred

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Since Cory's return in that game against the Islanders after he came back from the AHL conditioning stint and last injury, he's allowed 35 goals. I've counted just 7 of those goals as goals he could have or should have had. That's only 20% of the goals. I'm pretty sure the last season he was a .925% goalie (.924%) in 15-16, I only counted something around 20% of the goals he allowed as stoppable. It was pushing 30% or above 30% the two years before this and it's still above 30% for this year, due to how insanely bad he was before the return.

Before he came back this last time, he had allowed 29 goals and I had counted 13 to be stoppable. 45% of them.

So it's pretty easy to see that his play on the eye test has improved astronomically since then. I'm still not optimistic that it would be in the .920's% after a full season though, but his play on the eyes has improved.
 

Nubmer6

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So it's pretty easy to see that his play on the eye test has improved astronomically since then. I'm still not optimistic that it would be in the .920's% after a full season though, but his play on the eyes has improved.
Absolutely. The way he moved before... I couldn't tell if he was in pain or just afraid to re-injure himself, but he seemed to be coming across the crease gingerly. It doesn't really explain the number of softies he gave up from outside the high danger areas though.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he's passed whatever issue it was, and hoping he maintains a .910 (hopefully better) for a couple more years. That would at least make him a decent backup.
 
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Bleedred

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Absolutely. The way he moved before... I couldn't tell if he was in pain or just afraid to re-injure himself, but he seemed to be coming across the crease gingerly. It doesn't really explain the number of softies he gave up from outside the high danger areas though.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he's passed whatever issue it was, and hoping he maintains a .910 (hopefully better) for a couple more years. That would at least make him a decent backup.
Some of the softies (like the wraparound goal against Vegas in the first minute) could be chalked up to the hip.

And I'd buy goals like that Tuch goal (the one in the same game that got him yanked and was the last we saw of him until February) were definitely a confidence issue.
 

Nubmer6

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Some of the softies (like the wraparound goal against Vegas in the first minute) could be chalked up to the hip.

And I'd buy goals like that Tuch goal (the one in the same game that got him yanked and was the last we saw of him until February) were definitely a confidence issue.
Ya, but I'm talking about the softies from the high/mid point. Also, it would be nice to have a goalie that's mentally tough, although the winless streak and own-goals he went through was pretty extraordinary.
 

Bleedred

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Ya, but I'm talking about the softies from the high/mid point. Also, it would be nice to have a goalie that's mentally tough, although the winless streak and own-goals he went through was pretty extraordinary.
Probably something to do with the injuries in some way.

It's not like he never gave up goals like that before his decline in play started, they just didn't happen with frequency.

Which is why I rarely will say ''Well so and so would have made that save'' or ''Cory stops that shot 3 years ago''. Because sometimes he didn't, but I have thought ''Cory makes that save more times back then than he would now''.
 

devilsblood

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We only lost to Buffalo once. We only play them 3 times a year. Cory beat them both times. His first win over them was his first win in a start this year. And Kinkaid was in net for the one loss and allowed at least two garbage softies in that game.

But if you remove his stats against Tampa, Toronto and Buffalo this year, his save percentage climbs up from .891% to .901%!
I think he is talking about actual AHL losses. Buffalo's AHL affiliate being Rochester.
 
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