The Next Step(s) For The Edmonton Oilers.

[CycloneSweep]

What's next for the Oilers?

Fix the wings. Fix the defense. Fix the goaltending. Fix the coaching. Fix the front office. Fix the minor league team. Fix the cap structure.

Fix the wings. On going, have a few good wing prospects but not ready.

Fix the defense. On going. Few good defense prospects not ready.

Fix the goaltending. Koskinen is an attempt and Talbot can easily bounce back.

Fix the coaching. Entire assistant team was wiped out and replaced with guys who know what they are doing.

Fix the front office. Long shot.

Fix the minor league team. Fired the coach, replaced with Woodcroft who is from some accounts a good players coach and development guy. We also have a good amount prospects heading there next year so it will be improved.

Fix the cap structure. Won't be anytime soon.

 

[CycloneSweep]

You're still relying on the rebound or progression of a good chunk of the roster.

And this of course isn't taking inevitable injuries into account. It's not like the Oilers just missed last year. They weren't even close. Most of the playoff teams ran them over. Even some of the bottom feeders did.

This team needs an upgrade. Nobody's going to look past them.

So trade Klefbom, Larsson, Russell, Sekera, Lucic, Talbot, Benning, Caggiula, Kassian, Puljujarvi, Strome cause no way any of them have better seasons or get better.

Middle of the pack pp was 20.7%. Ours was 14.8%, 31 goals on 210 opportunities. Bump that up to middle of the pack, hell even 19% that takes his from 31 to 40 goals. A 9 increase.

Middle of the pack PK was 80%, ours was 76.7, 57 against in 245 attempts (11 short handed goals, second most in the league) if our pk was even 79 percent, that drops us down to 51 goals against, 6 goal increase.

So even slightly below middle of the pack special teams (completely doable with proper coaching, our PK got good near the end) that's a 15 goal differential swing. Oilers went 18-13-6 in one goal games. That could help. Say those 15 goals let us win...3 more goals that would of put us tied with the Flames and only 11 points out.

Now Talbot had a career worse season. Say he bounces back to slightly worse than his first season and puts up a 0.915 instead of a 0.908 that would of saved. That is a 15 goal difference based on the shots against last year. Let's say all those PK goal improvement was on Talbot so..9 more goals not scored against. Say that gets us...2 more wins. That's now 7 points out of a playoff spot. That also puts the teams ×/- at -5.

So with just Talbot bouncing back a little and a slightly below middle of the pack special teams, this team would of only been 7 points out of a playoff spot..Ish.

That's not half the team bouncing back. That's just Talbot and proper special teams coaching (which we have).

You dont think it's at all possible that going into the season with a completely healthy roster and maybe even...2 more players having better seasons could get us within a point or 2 from the playoffs?

If you dont think it's at all possible then go watch basketball or Toronto for the season and save us the whining after every single tiny misstep.

I'm as negative as the rest of ya'll but when you actually look at the numbers...not a lot has to improve.

 

[fireantz]

Next year is a 50-50 coin toss the way I see it. Every team should have some shot at playoffs, even Arizona and Buffalo, and when you have McDavid whatever odds you have should increase.

That said there are a lot of things that scare me about this team

1.) It's a one line team. Yes the McDavid line is going to score. But which version of line 2 with Draisaitl or RNH + remaining wingers can you count on for regular secondary production? This is a one line team, the McDavid show and not much else. I love Leon, but he needs to drive his own line and put up 65+ points without Connor.

2.) Injuries devastate this team and I'm not even talking like McDavid or Draisaitl injuries. It seems like any injury to any major player at any time completely causes the team to fall apart. Sekera is hurt and they fold, no Draisaitl for a few games and its over, etc. etc. etc. It feels like if any one of Draisaitl, RNH, Klefbom, Sekera, Larsson, or Talbot were to get hurt, they'd be hooped, let alone McDavid.

3.) Until Bouchard develops the offence for the blue line is still very lacking.

4.) I have no idea which version of Cam Talbot is showing up next year.

I would suggest it’s less than 50/50.We need a rebound from ALL our older expensive players (Lucic,Sekera and Talbot). We have no depth so injury or inferior performance will mean kids replace them. Those young prospects ALL need time to develop in the minors. Lucic and Sekera need to recover so as to be tradeable. Replacing Talbot with a 1G will cost 6M.Bridging Nurse is short term and if he continues to play like a 1LW he will cost much more. With McD and Drai reality is we need multiple players on entry level contracts. Pray that Bakersfield becomes that area of development! 50/50 means Strome Caggiula Puljujarvi Kassian Rattieand Khaira have career years

 

[voxel]

Yeah I recall an extra 5 goal-differential equates to an extra win according to analytics. Just average anything places us back in the hunt. Having breakout seasons by players... that puts us in Vegas Cinderella territory.

 

[The Panther]

I'm optimistic about next season. There's no reason I can think of be all doom-and-gloom.

What happened last year was (a) terrible start compounded by (b) November concussions and player illnesses resulting in (c) horrendous early-season record that could not be overcome. Compounding that rare-brew perfect storm was (d) worst-ever performances by a handful of players, including the #1 goalie, at the same time.

(A) probably happened because certain players were believing their own media-hype, which isn't a problem going into this season when everyone knows the ship needs to sail smoothly from the dock. (B) was a fluke situation that extended their early-season crappiness, and it won't repeat itself. (C) was the result of (a) and (b), so it shouldn't re-occur either. (D) was bizarre, but it can't possibly happen again. I mean, Talbot and Lucic and Russell and Sekera and (insert disappointing player) cannot possibly all be as bad as they were last year.

Most likely scenario is they have a pretty solid season, with the usual ups and downs, and squeak into the playoffs.

By the way, I like Strome. Great player. And Bear is going to be a total stud soon.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Fix the wings. On going, have a few good wing prospects but not ready.

We had a few ready wingers but... see below.

Fix the defense. On going. Few good defense prospects not ready.

We spent our two best wingers and a first and a second and the defense is still mediocre.

Fix the goaltending. Koskinen is an attempt and Talbot can easily bounce back.

Well if Talbot doesn't bounce back and Koskinen doesn't work out, we have ZERO goalies after next season. Pray to the deities that Talbot bounces back.

Fix the coaching. Entire assistant team was wiped out and replaced with guys who know what they are doing.

Yeah that Calgary head coach did a fantastic job... And then we put one of the failures in charge of our AHL team. Hmm.

Fix the front office. Long shot.

It won't happen.

Fix the minor league team. Fired the coach, replaced with Woodcroft who is from some accounts a good players coach and development guy. We also have a good amount prospects heading there next year so it will be improved.

I sure hope so. I'm kinda tired of moving failures around in this organization.

Fix the cap structure. Won't be anytime soon.

Obviously.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

So trade Klefbom, Larsson, Russell, Sekera, Lucic, Talbot, Benning, Caggiula, Kassian, Puljujarvi, Strome cause no way any of them have better seasons or get better.

A good chunk of those players have already hit their ceiling. Not saying trade them all but there's no reason not to upgrade on a few of them.

Middle of the pack pp was 20.7%. Ours was 14.8%, 31 goals on 210 opportunities. Bump that up to middle of the pack, hell even 19% that takes his from 31 to 40 goals. A 9 increase.

Middle of the pack PK was 80%, ours was 76.7, 57 against in 245 attempts (11 short handed goals, second most in the league) if our pk was even 79 percent, that drops us down to 51 goals against, 6 goal increase.

Okay, but there's zero guarantee either of these things will be better next year. Even in the playoff year our PK was still bottom half of the league.

So even slightly below middle of the pack special teams (completely doable with proper coaching, our PK got good near the end) that's a 15 goal differential swing. Oilers went 18-13-6 in one goal games. That could help. Say those 15 goals let us win...3 more goals that would of put us tied with the Flames and only 11 points out.

Now Talbot had a career worse season. Say he bounces back to slightly worse than his first season and puts up a 0.915 instead of a 0.908 that would of saved. That is a 15 goal difference based on the shots against last year. Let's say all those PK goal improvement was on Talbot so..9 more goals not scored against. Say that gets us...2 more wins. That's now 7 points out of a playoff spot. That also puts the teams ×/- at -5.

You're speaking a lot in hypotheticals. Talbot NEEDS to bounce back because if he doesn't the season is lost. And if he doesn't then Koskinen needs to step up.

So with just Talbot bouncing back a little and a slightly below middle of the pack special teams, this team would of only been 7 points out of a playoff spot..Ish.

That's not half the team bouncing back. That's just Talbot and proper special teams coaching (which we have).

Talbot wasn't very good last year but it goes hand in hand with sloppy defensive play for many parts of the year. I remember the Jets ran our show early on and had no problems scoring at will.

You dont think it's at all possible that going into the season with a completely healthy roster and maybe even...2 more players having better seasons could get us within a point or 2 from the playoffs?

If you dont think it's at all possible then go watch basketball or Toronto for the season and save us the whining after every single tiny misstep.

I'm as negative as the rest of ya'll but when you actually look at the numbers...not a lot has to improve.

The Oilers were 17 points out of a playoff spot last year. A lot has to go right for them to make the playoffs. Can it happen? Absolutely. But you're asking for complete team health along with bounceback years for many players with possibly minimal additions to the lineup. The teams in our division are also trying to improve and the Oilers need to keep up.

 

[CycloneSweep]

We had a few ready wingers but... see below.



We spent our two best wingers and a first and a second and the defense is still mediocre.



Well if Talbot doesn't bounce back and Koskinen doesn't work out, we have ZERO goalies after next season. Pray to the deities that Talbot bounces back.



Yeah that Calgary head coach did a fantastic job... And then we put one of the failures in charge of our AHL team. Hmm.



It won't happen.



I sure hope so. I'm kinda tired of moving failures around in this organization.



Obviously.

Jesus. All you do is expect the worse. "

This thread is about what the Oilers do moving forward, not continue to shit on them for past mistakes. If you want to do that like always there is tons of threads for that. Assuming no one will improve or bounce back, you might as well burn all your Oiler shit and leave. Not even kidding. If all you expect is every player to have a bad year again then you arent even a fan. Fine be negative about things that have happened or not happened. But to sit here and expect everyone to have career bad seasons again is absolutely ridiculous.

 

[CycloneSweep]

A good chunk of those players have already hit their ceiling. Not saying trade them all but there's no reason not to upgrade on a few of them.



Okay, but there's zero guarantee either of these things will be better next year. Even in the playoff year our PK was still bottom half of the league.



You're speaking a lot in hypotheticals. Talbot NEEDS to bounce back because if he doesn't the season is lost. And if he doesn't then Koskinen needs to step up.



Talbot wasn't very good last year but it goes hand in hand with sloppy defensive play for many parts of the year. I remember the Jets ran our show early on and had no problems scoring at will.



The Oilers were 17 points out of a playoff spot last year. A lot has to go right for them to make the playoffs. Can it happen? Absolutely. But you're asking for complete team health along with bounceback years for many players with possibly minimal additions to the lineup. The teams in our division are also trying to improve and the Oilers need to keep up.

I'm not asking for complete bounceback years from many players.

Literally all I showed above was having below average special teams (which is absolutely doable and will happen at bare minimum) and for Talbot to have the second worse year of his career and the Oilers would be in striking distance. That's what the numbers show no matter if you want to believe it or not.

I'm not expecting everyone to have great bounce back years but you are expecting everyone to not.

Fixing the special teams is 99% coaching. Our PK was good at the end of the year and with Yawney and Gulutzan it'll be fine. We have the players to have at least mid tier PP to.

Every fricken year is a "bunch of hypotheticals". Literally your mindset is the team is f***ed no matter what and all you say is how f***ed the team is, nothing we do is good, everything is the wrong move.

Literally I dont think you would be happy until the entire org is fired and every single player is replaced for players 3 times as good at 1/2 of the cap hit. You are negative to be negative

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Jesus. All you do is expect the worse. "

This thread is about what the Oilers do moving forward, not continue to **** on them for past mistakes. If you want to do that like always there is tons of threads for that. Assuming no one will improve or bounce back, you might as well burn all your Oiler **** and leave. Not even kidding. If all you expect is every player to have a bad year again then you arent even a fan. Fine be negative about things that have happened or not happened. But to sit here and expect everyone to have career bad seasons again is absolutely ridiculous.

When you miss the playoffs for 11 out of 12 years, and 2 out of 3 years with the best player on the planet, you tend to expect the worst.

I don't expect every player to have a bad year, but it's naïve to expect everyone to bounce back and have a good year. The scary thing for Oiler fans is that McDavid had an even better season than his MVP season and the Oilers still finished 17 points out of a playoff spot. He needs help and a lot of it.

Adding to that is the very difficult October schedule the Oilers have. A bad October will again doom the team to another wasted season. Chiarelli and co got way too complacent last year. Hopefully they learned their lesson.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I'm not asking for complete bounceback years from many players.

You listed 10 players off the hop to bounce back or have better years. That's nearly half the roster.

Literally all I showed above was having below average special teams (which is absolutely doable and will happen at bare minimum) and for Talbot to have the second worse year of his career and the Oilers would be in striking distance. That's what the numbers show no matter if you want to believe it or not.

Obviously having better special teams will help as will goaltending. But as I said, even during the year we made the playoffs the PK was mediocre at best. Our power play SHOULD be better, but how much? We still lack a good PMD and a shooting threat. Lucic has to go back to being a netfront presence especially since Maroon is no longer around.

I'm not expecting everyone to have great bounce back years but you are expecting everyone to not.

Fixing the special teams is 99% coaching. Our PK was good at the end of the year and with Yawney and Gulutzan it'll be fine. We have the players to have at least mid tier PP to.

I'm expecting a few players to bounce back, but not all of them. Lucic won't be as bad as last year. Talbot SHOULD be better. Klefbom needs to improve, as does Larsson and Sekera. The wingers also need to be better.

Every fricken year is a "bunch of hypotheticals". Literally your mindset is the team is ****ed no matter what and all you say is how ****ed the team is, nothing we do is good, everything is the wrong move.

Literally I dont think you would be happy until the entire org is fired and every single player is replaced for players 3 times as good at 1/2 of the cap hit. You are negative to be negative

I would happily eat crow if the Oilers managed to pull a 3rd round appearance out of their ass. But with limited cap space and assets to spend, there's not a whole lot of room for upgrading on a roster that wasn't good enough last year.

I said after the playoffs that not only did the Oilers need to keep upgrading the roster (and they had the cap space to do so), they needed to find a temporary replacement for Sekera. Needless to say that didn't happen. But what I see is a team that needlessly spends cap space on middling players, downgrades through trades, and makes questionable signings and re-signings.

Chiarelli needs to bust his ass making smart signings and trades, upgrade the depth (especially on the wings), stock the farm system with prospects instead of NHL hasbeens, and win back the trust of the fans. If this team is floundering outside the playoffs again by Thanksgiving there's no reason why he or anyone else should keep their jobs.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

You're absolutely right. So why will everyone rebound? Because we hope they will?

again, I've never said once that "everyone" will rebound...some will fail, some will succeed...just like every team in the NHL
the trick is to have more succeed than fail

If Talbot and/or Klefbom/Larsson fail to rebound, bye bye season. A team that's been bad for many, MANY seasons doesn't just flip the switch.

and if Andersson goes down in Toronto, they're toast...or Quick in LA...or Jones in SJ....or every team in the NHL with a legit starting goaltender

And sitting around doing nothing or downgrading the roster doesn't either. This team wasn't good enough even when it was healthy to win. If this team gets off to another 3 win October they aren't coming back. And unlike last season, this season's October isn't friendly in the slightest. All but two games are against playoff teams and even then they still struggled against the Rangers and Hawks last year. Never mind the Caps, Preds, Pens...

but they won't be...I'm not so sure why you're convinced they'll do nothing

 

[oobga]

Be patient. Wait for the cap to go up. Hope good prospects pan out. No real choice now except to do that.

Just hope at some point as we accumulate some assets and cap space again that Chia isn't the guy that is in charge of making the moves to try to turn the team into a true contender.

 

[syz]

Draft well and learn to develop prospects, finally.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

again, I've never said once that "everyone" will rebound...some will fail, some will succeed...just like every team in the NHL
the trick is to have more succeed than fail

and if Andersson goes down in Toronto, they're toast...or Quick in LA...or Jones in SJ....or every team in the NHL with a legit starting goaltender

but they won't be...I'm not so sure why you're convinced they'll do nothing

Well that is the trick, you're right. They need a lot of players to be much better than last year. They also need coaching and management to be better.

And some teams can survive without a starting goalie. Hell the Kings made Peter Budaj look pretty decent. The problem here is that the Oilers backup has FOUR games of NHL experience. I hope they both work out.

They won't do nothing but there's not a lot they can do because of the corner they painted themselves into.

 

[ToeMcDrag83]

At this stage I have patience for becoming a perennial cup contender.
I do not have patience for a bottom 10 finishes.

The playoffs should be the goal every year, at minimum battling for a spot into late March/early April.

 

[thadd]

What's next for the Oilers?

Fix the wings. Fix the defense. Fix the goaltending. Fix the coaching. Fix the front office. Fix the minor league team. Fix the cap structure.

I remember a time when I thought we'd actually almost fixed our minor league. Now it's bottom of the barrel again.
Before I got on HFboards I had no idea we didn't have a farm team way back. What a joke.

Just think of all the draft picks that never saw the light of day in the NHL when we were going through a rebuild.
I still to this day do not understand why the major networks haven't made documentaries on what a horrible job was done to make Edmonton competitive from the minute Kevin Lowe took over to when people started throwing money/jerseys onto the ice.

We'd all just eat up whatever the media told us when it came to the potential of all of these 1st-5th rounders we were drafting and the vast majority of us never spoke about what a horrible job they were doing at ALL levels until we were pretty close to the end of it all.

 

[thadd]

At this stage I have patience for becoming a perennial cup contender.
I do not have patience for a bottom 10 finishes.

The playoffs should be the goal every year, at minimum battling for a spot into late March/early April.

And with Drai and McDavid we shouldn't have to spend 1st rounders just to GET into the playoffs. I certainly hope I don't see us blow 1st rounders until McDavid is near 30 and not able to do quite as much as he can now, but I'm sure management will go for it at least a few times before then.

 

[McDraekke]

When you miss the playoffs for 11 out of 12 years, and 2 out of 3 years with the best player on the planet, you tend to expect the worst.

I don't expect every player to have a bad year, but it's naïve to expect everyone to bounce back and have a good year. The scary thing for Oiler fans is that McDavid had an even better season than his MVP season and the Oilers still finished 17 points out of a playoff spot. He needs help and a lot of it.

Adding to that is the very difficult October schedule the Oilers have. A bad October will again doom the team to another wasted season. Chiarelli and co got way too complacent last year. Hopefully they learned their lesson.

You're being just as naive expecting people to not bounce back, counting the kid's first year in the league when expecting playoffs, and that you think 1 bad month means the whole season is over. A tough October schedule also means that the rest of the schedule is slightly easier, no?

 

[McDraekke]

At this stage I have patience for becoming a perennial cup contender.
I do not have patience for a bottom 10 finishes.

The playoffs should be the goal every year, at minimum battling for a spot into late March/early April.

Then you shouldn't be watching a sport, in which nothing is ever guaranteed. I think what you want to be doing is playing GM mode in a video game, where you can make lopsided trades by adding tons of picks to get great players.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

You're being just as naive expecting people to not bounce back, counting the kid's first year in the league when expecting playoffs, and that you think 1 bad month means the whole season is over. A tough October schedule also means that the rest of the schedule is slightly easier, no?

When teams aren't in the playoffs by American Thanksgiving, 80% of the time they miss the playoffs. Guess what happened last year? This isn't the Kings, Ducks, or Pens that can rip off 13 wins in 15 games whenever they feel like it. They fell behind early this year (and many years) and never caught up. It's extremely difficult to make up ground in the NHL, especially for a team that isn't a perennial contender.

I expect some people to bounce back. I don't expect everyone to bounce back. They need bounceback years from Talbot, Klefbom, Larsson and Sekera at the bare minimum.

And November is slightly easier than October but not significantly so. An Eastern roadtrip with stops in Tampa and Washington, a romp through California... Not easy games to win.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Then you shouldn't be watching a sport, in which nothing is ever guaranteed. I think what you want to be doing is playing GM mode in a video game, where you can make lopsided trades by adding tons of picks to get great players.

Why is losing acceptable to you?

 

[McDraekke]

When teams aren't in the playoffs by American Thanksgiving, 80% of the time they miss the playoffs. Guess what happened last year? This isn't the Kings, Ducks, or Pens that can rip off 13 wins in 15 games whenever they feel like it. They fell behind early this year (and many years) and never caught up. It's extremely difficult to make up ground in the NHL, especially for a team that isn't a perennial contender.

I expect some people to bounce back. I don't expect everyone to bounce back. They need bounceback years from Talbot, Klefbom, Larsson and Sekera at the bare minimum.

And November is slightly easier than October but not significantly so. An Eastern roadtrip with stops in Tampa and Washington, a romp through California... Not easy games to win.

So 20% of the time, according to the random number we have to assume you are correct about, it can happen. So of the 15 teams who aren't in a playoffs position by American Thanksgiving, only 3 of those teams push into the playoffs? Somehow I don't think this is accurate.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

So 20% of the time, according to the random number we have to assume you are correct about, it can happen. So of the 15 teams who aren't in a playoffs position by American Thanksgiving, only 3 of those teams push into the playoffs? Somehow I don't think this is accurate.

Thanksgiving offers snapshot of Stanley Cup teams

Since the 2005-06 season, NHL teams in postseason position entering the American Thanksgiving holiday have gone on to make the Stanley Cup playoffs 77.3 percent of the time, according to STATS.

You're being too literal. It's a general benchmark that teams that are in a playoff spot by that point usually stay there. The Oilers were when they made the playoffs in 2016-17 and weren't in 2017-18. And the Oilers aren't a veteran team by any means. If they aren't in the playoffs by Thanksgiving this year it's a pretty safe bet they won't be when the season ends. I remember many times last year we would say "If we just pull off a lengthy win streak we're right back in it!" and it never materialized. Hockey isn't an easy game to win, and it's difficult to play catch up because in order to reach new heights, someone has to fall and the veteran teams don't usually do that. The Oilers absolutely must have a good October this year.

 

[McDraekke]

Why is losing acceptable to you?

Because I am not entitled to expect my team to always win? This is a sport. There are 31 teams vying for 16 spots, so roughly half won't make the playoffs. My expectations are a hell of a lot more in line with reality than some people who seem to expect winning and nothing less.